JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Ukraine War might really break up the Russian Federation” – The Hill/ Alexander J. Motyl

“It’s time to start taking the potential disintegration of Russia seriously. A number of analysts see the shattering of the Russian Federation as a possible aftermath of … Putin’s catastrophic war in Ukraine. Although the world would be better off with a much weakened Russia, its fall may not go smoothly. … Is unpredictability likely to increase if Russia experiences disintegration? Or is the opposite more likely — that … Russia will become more repressive at home, that Putin will become more desperate, that the war will remain a quagmire for Russia and a liberation struggle for Ukraine, and that Putin’s rule and regime are headed for oblivion? Russia’s neighbors and the West have been living with a deeply unstable and unpredictable Russia for three decades. … [T]here is almost zero likelihood that Russia will suddenly shed its instability and unpredictability and stop its slide toward disintegration. …”

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The Ukraine War might really break up the Russian Federation