“… Putin and his comrades see Nazis where there aren’t any … [and] see militarization where there isn’t any …. They insisted in late 2021 and early 2022 that they would never, ever invade Ukraine — and then did. They deny, still, targeting Ukrainian civilian targets. They deny, still, having destroyed the Kakhovka dam. The list could go on ad […]
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“Long focused on security, the Russian resident is rewarding loyalty among the ruling elite and showering his most important constituency — the men with guns — with cash.” “… Putin appears to be scrambling to coup-proof his system once more. … rewarding loyalty among the ruling elite and showering his most important constituency — the men with guns — with […]
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“But mass still counts, argues Shashank Joshi in the first of seven chapters of a special report on the future of warfare.” “… [The Russo-Ukrainian War has turned out to feature] old-style attrition: an industrial-scale contest of manpower, steel and explosives. … [with Russian casualties thought to number] over 200,000 … killed and wounded. … four times the … Soviet […]
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“… Medvedev … has warned that Moscow’s confrontation with the West will last decades and that its conflict with Ukraine could become permanent. Medvedev[, former Russian president and now] deputy head of … [Russia’s] Security Council, … has emerged as one of Russia’s most outspoken hawks since Moscow launched what it called a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine last year. […]
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“This is war. … Zelenskyy[] is fighting or forced to fight a Russian president who’s been ruthless, bombing civilian targets from almost minute one, with Zelenskyy pleading with the United States and the West, please send tanks, please send planes, please send us the most advanced military equipment you can give us, because we need it. … [S]ending cluster munitions […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. has included cluster munitions in its latest $800 million package of military aid to Ukraine. More than 100 countries have signed onto the Convention on Cluster Munitions, vowing to never use them, but the U.S. is not one of them. A significant percentage of the submunitions often fail to detonate, effectively turning them into […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – July 7, 2023) What made Yevgeny Prigozhin rebel? We have seen multiple explanations offered, including his outspoken hatred for Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov; his evident reluctance to give up control of his PMC Wagner to the Defense Ministry; unspecified personal financial pressures; and his […]
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(whitehouse.gov – July 7, 2023) …. As I mentioned, because we’ve seen all of these reports on the provision of cluster munitions to Ukraine, I will leave it to the Pentagon to make a formal announcement later this afternoon for the next drawdown package and to go into the details of that drawdown package and the specifics on the types […]
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“… [S]outhern Ukraine [minefields] are so dense… [that] troops trying to liberate the area [reportedly] can only advance ‘tree by tree’ … Ukraine’s Western allies are getting nervous about the fact that … progress … is … measured in meters, rather than kilometers. … [T]he slower than expected pace of the counteroffensive means … support could become increasingly unsustainable if […]
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“The short-lived mutiny by the Wagner Group rebounded to help solidify Putin’s control.” “… There is no doubt that Prigozhin’s rebellion was unpleasant news for Putin. But is the Russian leader weakened? We know very little about what happened between Putin and Prigozhin … ‘Putin’s chef.’ And what we do know supports very few, if any, of the claims that […]
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“A robust fund-raising operation has been critical in supplying Ukraine’s military. But as the war drags on, contributions have lagged.” “… [M]any Ukrainian military units have relied heavily on donations and charitable funds to supply … troops with much-needed supplies like first aid kits, body armor, vehicles and even drones. People and groups from around the world rallied to Ukraine’s […]
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“If Putin’s defense spending numbers are correct, it’s likely that Prigozhin overstated the size of his army.” “… [D]isatisfaction with Russia’s military and political leadership will continue to brew with the fighting in Ukraine. As more details become available about Wagner — until recently, the best-equipped, always regularly paid part of the Russian invasion force — officers and soldiers alike […]
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“… [The] Ukraine … conflict has involved horrific atrocities, many … extensively recorded in real time …. [U]nlike in Syria and other recent wars, these crimes are being documented with the explicit aim of amassing evidence that can be used in courts. Since the war began, dozens of investigative journalists have been trained to become war crimes researchers, gathering images, […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Even though the pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive has “progressed more slowly than many had hoped,” the West’s interests “lie in continuing to arm, train and help defend Ukraine in the face of an ongoing threat from Russia ,” according to WP’s editors. One reason for “the slower rate” of Ukraine’s territorial gains is that Ukrainian forces […]
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(PONARS Eurasia – ponarseurasia.org – July 3, 2023) Ponarsians have weighed in en masse to interperet Yevgeny Prigozhin’s apparent mutiny. Kimberly Marten, who has long studied his Wagner Group, cautions that calling it a private military company belies the fact that it works on behalf of the Russian State and that, contrary to popular belief, Prigozhin is more its fixer […]
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“… An army invades Russia, race[s] right up to Moscow, and no one gets hurt? With just a few thousand men, it achieved what Hitler with almost a million men wasn’t able to? And Putin holds his military back? And then, with Moscow supposedly within his grasp, Prigozhin decides, ‘Oh well, never mind’ and heads to Belarus? … It is […]
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“.. .[R]isk of … major disaster at the … Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant terrifies Nadiya Hez, who lives in an area that would probably take the brunt of … radioactive fallout. The nuclear plant has been in continual danger as Russian and Ukrainian troops trade fire … but the chance of a meltdown has increased sharply since the [June 6] […]
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“Long-range missile strikes against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure have been … prominent and persistent …. … [T]he CSIS report Putin’s Missile War found that Russian missile attacks in 2022 … caused major damage to Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure but … failed to achieve the kind of decisive strategic effects … Moscow … likely sought. Into 2023, Russia has persisted in […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russian intelligence services may have known in advance of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plan to stage a mutiny, but it nonetheless materialized to pose the greatest military and security threat to Vladimir Putin’s rule since the end of the second Chechen war. The mutiny itself lasted only 36 hours, never spread to Moscow and ended with its chief […]
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“The Biden administration is actively considering sending cluster munitions to Ukraine to help Kyiv’s counteroffensive punch through Russia’s defenses, two U.S. officials and a person familiar with the debate said. The discussion … has intensified … as Ukraine’s effort to break through Russia’s frontline has stalled. … Late last year, the administration said it had ‘concerns’ … mainly for humanitarian […]
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“… For Ukraine to retake territory … armored vehicles and infantry [] will need to traverse routes that Russia has extensively mined. Open fields and side roads will need to be cleared …. The West has supplied mine-clearing equipment, including explosive charges that can clear an open lane through a minefield. But … the task is [still] daunting. … [and […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Simon Saradzhyan – June 29, 2023) Simon Saradzhyan is the founding director of Russia Matters. What drove Yevgeny Prigozhin to lead his PMC Wagner troops on a “march for justice” across southern Russia, toward Moscow? Was it a mutiny meant to overthrow Vladimir Putin and install the ex-convict in the Kremlin? Or was the owner […]
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“… Prigozhin’s mutiny … poke[d] a hole in the Kremlin’s campaign to assure Russians that everything is fine …. [] Prigozhin … gave more Russians reason to doubt their leadership. Is [] Putin really the all-powerful, czarlike figure they thought he was? …. Even if they are not ready to give up their relative safety and stability in favor of […]
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“For 18 months, Russia has been sliding deeper into totalitarian rule, including draconian laws pushed by … Putin that make it criminal to question the war against Ukraine — or even call it a ‘war’ …. [T]housands of Russians who object to the war and oppose [] Putin have not had the benefit of [the kind of] lenienc[y] [shown Prigozhin, […]
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“Defence minister argues Wagner insurrection in Russia will encourage further western support for Kyiv” “… [F]ormer Soviet paratrooper … [and current Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy] Reznikov said Ukraine’s army continued to impose heavy losses on Russian troops, with ‘degradation as a tool and the liberation of Ukrainian lands as the goal.’ Ukraine’s counteroffensive has … recaptured about 300 square kilometres […]
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“Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attempted rebellion didn’t topple President Vladimir Putin. But in its aftermath, it has launched debate over just how stable Mr. Putin’s hold on the country really is.” “When oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin led his 25,000-strong Wagner private military forces into open insurrection against Russia’s Defense Ministry and Moscow elites … it looked like the kind of turning point that […]
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“… Prigozhin lambasted the elite’s children as ‘shaking their tails on beaches’ while the children of ordinary Russian families are dying. … His fury both stokes and is fueled by widespread anger … [Russian] towns have been emptied by conscription[] and … cemeteries seek more gravediggers. … It would be reckless to dismiss the possibility that the regime’s internal troubles […]
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“Many Western pundits were quick to offer their hysterical takes on the weekend’s events in Russia” (opendemocracy.net – Jeremy Morris – June 26, 2023) Jeremy Morris is a researcher at Aarhus University, Denmark. His work covers labour relations, political economy, and the lived experience of people in Russia, Ukraine and other places since the collapse of the Soviet Union. He […]
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“… [Recent] events … portend a dark future for Russia. In a few short hours, Prigozhin’s armed rebellion generated enormous chaos. The war has stretched Russian state capacity thin … [T]he revolt has stretched it still further, presenting … a new domestic challenge. For years, the Kremlin has devised ways to head off a [cosmopolitan,] liberal, urban revolution. … [T]he […]
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“Neither Vladimir V. Putin nor the leader of the Wagner mercenary group made public appearances on Sunday, a day after an armed rebellion shook the nation.” “Confusion and uncertainty pervaded Russia on Sunday … [N]either … Putin nor … Prigozhin, … head of a mutinous mercenary group, appear[ed] anywhere in public a day after the most profound government crisis in […]
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“… Putin looked into the abyss … and blinked. After vowing revenge for what he called an ‘armed mutiny,’ he settled for a compromise. The speed with which Putin backed down suggests … his sense of vulnerability might be higher even than analysts believed. Putin might have saved his regime Saturday, but this day will be remembered as part of […]
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(Fred Weir – facebook.com/fred.weir – June 24, 2023) “It’s not the first time something bizarre has happened when I am away from Moscow. Prigozhin’s ‘revolt,’ of course, can go down as a clear illustration of the perils of permitting private armies to exist. …” [original post should load below, and also appears at facebook.com/fred.weir/posts/793729415591872/]
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(Michael Kofman – twitter.com/KofmanMichael – June 25, 2023) “A few thoughts on Prigozhin’s armed insurrection/mutiny/rebellion. For now it appears over. … Prigozhin launched a mutiny that ultimately challenged Putin’s power, and the system. This was not a traditional coup, but with Putin’s video and FSB statements it became a challenge that would reveal the extent of brittleness in the regime. […]
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“Shaken by the Wagner mutiny, Russia began addressing the damage of Saturday’s bout of violence as its citizens tried to understand how these events will affect … Putin’s regime, … shown … [to be] so unexpectedly vulnerable. … One widely shared conclusion in Russia … was that none of the key players in the power struggle that began when Prigozhin […]
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“The armed standoff on the road to Moscow, brief as it was, represented the most dramatic struggle for power in Russia in decades.” “… Could Russia’s botched invasion … eventually lead to the downfall of … Putin? For a few chaotic, head-snapping hours this weekend, the notion did not seem so far-fetched. … [E]ven with the apparent end to the […]
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(Moscow Times – Jake Cordell) Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion against Moscow will have stoked alarm in China and could throw sand in the wheels of the “no-limits” strategic partnership between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, experts said on Sunday. After a 24-hour armed insurrection in which Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries seized control of parts of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and […]
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“… Biden was blunt … about Ukraine’s chances of joining NATO. ‘I’m not going to make it easier,’ he declared. Despite its bold fight against Russia, the country still has to prove itself: ‘Does it meet all the standards every other nation in NATO does?’ Joining the alliance … ‘is not automatic.’ America … finds itself unusually isolated in the […]
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“Putin says Kyiv has no chances in its push to retake occupied land” “Ukrainian forces are proceeding more slowly than planned in their offensive to retake occupied areas, … Zelensky acknowledged, as military commanders said they are taking time to reassess tactics, adjusting to Russia’s extensive minefields and [air] attacks …. Both sides agree that the intensity of fighting declined […]
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“Funerals have taken on a grim routine in the Ukrainian city of Lviv, and as the fighting grows more intense during the counteroffensive, gravediggers say they are bracing for more bodies.” “… Fierce battles are playing out … in the … east and south …. A British defense intelligence report said … Sunday … both armies were suffering significant casualties […]
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“… Authoritarian leaders rarely lose power while still waging a war they initiated. … [and] authoritarian regimes most often survive in the wake of the departure of longtime leaders … [W]ere Putin to die … or be removed by insiders, the regime would … likely endure …. One development … could spark more substantive change in Russia: a Ukrainian victory. […]
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“Next month’s meeting of Western allies will leave the war-torn country mostly empty-handed.” “… [In] 2008 … NATO officially welcomed Ukraine’s aspirations for membership …. Now, after a full-scale Russian invasion, [Ukraine] is being asked to wait longer, without a timeline …. [T]he alliance … offers [Ukraine] perhaps the only chance at dodging future Russian attacks on its sovereignty. … […]
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“The excessive optimism of Putin and his ministers smacks of an attempt to convince not even mythical investors so much as themselves that business as usual is possible — and even compatible with their threats to unleash nuclear war.” “… Investors and foreign media used to see … Putin’s keynote address as an economic road map and indication of [Putin’s] […]
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“Some of the weapons sent to Ukraine by other countries have been unusable, and hundreds of millions of dollars in contracts paid up front have yet to be fulfilled.” “Ukraine has paid contractors hundreds of millions of dollars for weapons that have not been delivered, and some of the much-publicized arms donated by its allies have been so decrepit that […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s military command claimed, as of June 15, to have retaken approximately 40 square miles of territory in the course of its counteroffensive, even as its soldiers encountered what U.S. military officials described as fierce resistance by Russian troops. The latter have reportedly managed to destroy at least four Leopard-2 tanks, 3 Leopard 2R engineering vehicles […]
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“Dense Russian defenses and a lack of air cover add to the challenges facing Ukrainian troops.” “… Ukraine’s ambitious offensive to take back Russian-occupied land is proving to be a hard slog against dense minefields, well-prepared defenses and Russia’s superior air power. After … mixed results, Ukrainian forces have mostly paused … assaults … [to] draw lessons from the past […]
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“Fierce battles have ensued in the south and east of Ukraine as Russian forces push back against a counteroffensive aimed at driving them from the region … [according to] Ukraine’s deputy defense minister [Hanna Malyar] …. [She] said Russian troops have employed antitank guided missiles and loitering munitions that stay airborne while identifying a target and then attack. Mines laid […]
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“Sources close to the Kremlin say stress of Ukraine war is turning some to drink State banquets serve luxury cognac costing more than £6,000 a bottle Some Russian admin staff are said to be starting the day with a bottle of vodka” Click here for: “Putin’s administration staff ‘are starting the day with a bottle of vodka and Security Council’s […]
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“As Ukraine accelerates its counteroffensive a… a rational person might conclude … 2023 must surely be the last year of Russia’s war against its neighbor. Russian military resources are depleted, Moscow’s long and bloody winter offensive in the Donbas has yielded meager results, and Russian society longs for the return of prewar stability. Logic dictates … the Kremlin has no […]
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“… Russia invaded Ukraine … to conquer the country and erase the independence … gained after the [Soviet] collapse …. Russia’s attempt to take [Kyiv] was thwarted … then its attempts to consolidate gains in the east and the south were disrupted. Russian troops were forced to withdraw from the Kharkiv region and Kherson. A brutal Russian air campaign against […]
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(Moscow Times – Leyla Latypova, Vivianne Wandera – June 13, 2023) The family of Tanzanian-born Nemes Raymond Taremo first heard rumors that their beloved relative had been killed on the frontlines in faraway Ukraine in December last year. They received their last message from Taremo, 37, two months earlier — on Oct. 17 — shortly after he joined Russia’s Wagner […]
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