Category: Military

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Five lessons from Russia’s Ukraine military escalation” – Mathieu Boulègue/ Chatham House

JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Russia shows readiness and an ability to move at speed when needed, but key to its strategy is retaining control of both military and diplomatic manoeuvres.” “1. Attention is focused where Russia wants it to be … [M]id-April, international media reported Russia will invade or ‘go to war’ with Ukraine, without realizing this is already effectively the case. Russia’s annexation […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Posturing Is a Test of Western Resolve; The threat to Ukraine is far from over. Europe and the U.S. should give Kyiv the support it needs” – Bloomberg

JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Putin has temporarily eased tensions by ordering Russian troops to pull back from the border [but] … remains determined to undermine the Ukrainian government’s control over its own territory. The U.S. and its NATO allies should meet the threat with a coordinated response … providing Ukraine with the weapons necessary to defend itself [as a start]. … [T]he seven-year-old […]

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Zelenskiy Warns That Russian Troops Can Return At ‘Any Moment’

Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

… Zelenskiy has urged the Ukrainian military to remain on alert despite Russia’s drawdown of its troops from the country’s borders, saying they could return “at any moment” […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia withdraws troops from Ukraine’s border” – bne Intellinews

JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Fears of an imminent invasion have been stoked by the large build-up of Russian forces on Ukraine’s eastern border and additional forces sent to Crimea. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy welcomed the announcement and thanked his international partners for their support. … [E]stimates … vary from around 40,000 new troops largely stationed in the city of Voronezh some 130 km […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia: Foreign Policy and U.S. Relations [Excerpt]” – Congressional Research Service

Media, Internet, Social Media, Television, Middle East, North Africa, Military, Oil, Gas, Energy, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rise to leadership more than 20 years ago, tensions have increased steadily between Russia and the United States […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin and ‘Consequences’; Putin masses troops near Ukraine in an early test for Biden and the G-7 allies” – Wall Street Journal

Europe, EU, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… [T]he world is becoming a more dangerous place by the day. The hottest current spot is Russia’s border with Ukraine and the Black Sea, where the Kremlin has amassed more forces than any time since its invasion of the Donbass …. Putin’s ambitions aren’t clear, though some think he wants to control the entire Black Sea coast, further squeezing […]

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RUSSIALINK: “U.S. to Send 2 Warships to Black Sea Amid Russia-Ukraine Tension, Turkey Says” – Moscow Times

Military, Turkey, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of U.S. Navy warships in Black Sea exercise, adapted from image at defense.gov with photo credit to MC1 Justin Stumberg

… The U.S. Navy routinely operates [in] the Black Sea and flies reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace there to monitor Russian naval activity and troop movements […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Ukraine does not seek escalation of situation in Donbas – NSDC secretary” – Interfax

Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

KYIV. April 7 (Interfax) – Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Oleksiy Danilov said, when commenting on the situation surrounding a buildup of Russian forces in the proximity of the border with Ukraine, that “there is a certain intensification of all processes” today, adding that Kyiv seeks to avert any escalation of the situation in Donbas. “Let’s […]

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Russia’s Karabakh Protectorate Taking Clearer Shape (Part One)

Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, Military
Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

(The Jamestown Foundation – jamestown.org – Eurasia Daily Monitor: Volume 18, Issue 45 – Vladimir Socor – March 18, 2021) Russia’s military “peacekeeping” intervention in Upper (“Nagorno”) Karabakh in November 2020 laid the foundation for a Russian de facto protectorate (see EDM, December 8, 10, 2020). The Second Karabakh War (September 27–November 9, 2020) has resulted in a partition of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Could Putin Launch Another Invasion?” – Politico/ Leon Aron

Human Rights, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Politics, Government, Protests, Elections
Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“The same factors that led up to his incursion into Ukraine are in place again, including domestic protests, a struggling economy and a desire for glory” “… [O]n the seventh anniversary of the Crimean Anschluss, many of the same vectors that produced the invasion of Ukraine are here again. … There are at least two reasons for Putin to be […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Armenia seeks bigger Russian military presence on its territory” – Reuters

Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, JRL NewsBlog, Military
Yerevan

“Armenia would welcome .. expansion of a Russian military base on its territory and … redeployment of some Russian forces closer to its border with Azerbaijan … its defence minister said …. Ethnic Armenian[s] … in … Nagorno-Karabakh … ceded … territory in and around the enclave to Azerbaijan in a six-week conflict in 2020 … that claimed thousands of […]

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Russians Want Moscow to Spend Less on Military and More on Domestic Needs, Higher School of Economics Poll Shows

Budget, Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Military, Politics, Government, Protests, Elections
Cash, Calculator, Pen

[According to polls,] more Russians now than two years ago want their government to spend more on healthcare and education and only half as many want it to devote more money to defense and security […]

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Banning Pro-Russian Media: Fighting Disinformation, Silencing Dissonant Opinions, or Both?

Media, Internet, Social Media, Television, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

The basic questions at play … are not unique to Ukraine, though they are sharpened by Russia’s aggression in the Donbas and Crimea: Who defines the boundary between disinformation and dissonant opinions? […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia hints it may return to overflight treaty if U.S. does” – AP

JRL NewsBlog, Military, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of OC-135B Plane Painted For Open Skies Treaty Use, adapted from image at arnold.af.mil

“Russia may consider returning to an international pact allowing surveillance flights … if the United States reverses its exit …. The Open Skies Treaty … allow[ed] … more than three dozen signatories to conduct reconnaissance flights … to collect information about military forces and activities[,] [m]ore than 1,500 flights … since … 2002, aimed at fostering transparency … and helping […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putting Putin in his place: U.S. Navy eyes ‘freedom of navigation’ patrols off Russia’s Arctic coast” – Washington Times/ Ben Wolfgang

Arctic, JRL NewsBlog, Military, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations

“The Navy is eyeing a tougher posture in the Arctic to push back against Moscow … [T]op Pentagon officials said … the U.S. could launch ‘freedom of navigation’ operations near Russia’s Arctic coastline. Such operations would resemble Navy exercises in the South China Sea, an area in which American ships regularly contest growing Chinese territorial claims. Officials believe similar movements […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Aggression Spurs Neighbors to Rebuild Defenses” – Wall Street Journal/ Michael M. Phillips, James Marson

Europe, EU, Military, Sweden, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations

“Sweden has overturned decades of its own defense and foreign policy to strengthen its military and tighten ties with the U.S.” “Wooden targets hide among … pine trees at the Gotland island army firing range … depicting foreign invaders … faces twisted with malice. … [with] no unit insignia, no flag patches. … Swedish army recruits peppering the targets with […]

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Baku’s Success in Using Turkish Drones Raises Question: Could Ukraine Use Them Against Russia in Crimea?

Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Jamestown Foundation – jamestown.org – Eurasia Daily Monitor: Volume 17, Issue 179 – Paul Goble – Dec. 16, 2020) The Azerbaijani military’s use of Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), purchased from Turkey, played such a prominent role in Baku’s victory over Armenian forces during the Second Karabakh War (September 27–November 9, 2020) that defense analysts around the world are […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “UN urges Russia to immediately withdraw forces from Crimea” – AP

JRL NewsBlog, Military, Nuclear Energy, Nuclear, Missile Defense, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“The U.N. General Assembly approved a resolution … urging Russia to immediately withdraw all its military forces from Crimea ‘and end its temporary occupation of the territory of Ukraine without delay.’ The vote in the 193-member world body was 63-17 with 62 abstentions …. Russia sent troops into Crimea and annexed the peninsula in 2014. It has supported separatist rebels […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Trump Exits Open Skies Treaty, Moves to Discard Observation Planes” – Wall Street Journal/ Michael R. Gordon

Aviation, Drones, JRL NewsBlog, Military, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of OC-135B Plane Painted For Open Skies Treaty Use, adapted from image at arnold.af.mil

“Without specialized aircraft and equipment, Biden administration would have difficult time re-entering post-Cold War pact.” “The Trump administration formally shut the door on the Open Skies treaty Sunday, exiting the agreement while moving to get rid of … U.S. Air Force planes … used to carry out the … accord[, had had dated to the closing of the Cold War […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “‘Are We Getting Invaded?’ U.S. Boats Faced Russian Aggression Near Alaska” – New York Times/ Mike Baker

Military, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Alaska and North Pacific, adapted from image at army.mil

“Russia has escalated its provocative encounters in the North Pacific this year, harassing boats in U.S. fishing waters and sending bombers toward Alaska’s shores.” “The crew … was laying out … long cod-catching line well within U.S. fishing territory in the Bering Sea when a voice crackled over the … radio … issuing commands: The ship was in danger, it […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Caucasus ceasefire cements Turkey as a power in Russia’s backyard; Azerbaijan-Armenia truce underlines new regional balance between Moscow and Ankara” – Financial Times/ Henry Foy, Laura Pitel

Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Turkey
Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“… a six-week-long conflict with Armenia over … Nagorno-Karabakh … resulted in major gains for Azerbaijan and its Turkish-backed military …. A truce … freezes the conflict … includ[ing] agreements that [Russian ally] Armenia … must hand over additional land …. While the truce was brokered by Moscow — which has deployed [nearly 2,000] peacekeepers — … Azerbaijan’s success with […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia’s Security Guarantees for Armenia Don’t Extend to Karabakh, Putin Says” – Moscow Times

Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, Military
Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

Russia’s commitments to Armenia as part of a Moscow-led regional security bloc do not include the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region where fighting is raging between Armenia and Azerbaijan … Putin said […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Four Myths about Russian Grand Strategy” – Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)/ Robert Person

Europe, EU, Foreign Policy, Security, Visas, JRL NewsBlog, Military, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Satellite

“Myth #1: Russia’s grand strategy is driven by ideology …. Myth #2: Russia seeks to reconstruct the Soviet Union or Russian Empire. … Instead of a formal territorial empire … Russia endeavors to establish a privileged and exclusive sphere of influence across former Soviet territory. … [with] a seat at the table in the capital of every post-Soviet country. … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Russia’s alliance with China is improbable, but not impossible” – Fondation pour la recherche stratégique/ Simon Saradzhyan

China, Far East, Siberia, APEC, JRL NewsBlog, Military, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Abstract: [A]re Russia and China already in a de facto military alliance (against the U.S.), or may they soon enter one? … [This article] reviews … academic literature on alignments … and alliances … infers criteria … [and] sets out to … [assess that] relationship …. Introduction[:]  The [Russia-China] relationship … is getting stronger …. Xi Jinping[] and … Putin[] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia to cut defence spending in bid to prop up ailing economy; Continued support for less well-off set to wipe out fiscal surplus of recent years” – Financial Times/ Henry Foy

Budget, Coronavirus, Covid-19 Pandemic, Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Politics, Government, Protests, Elections
File Photo of Close-Up of Line of Russian Soldiers in Dress Uniforms for Parade, adapted from image at georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov with credit to Eric Draper

“Russia will spend more on supporting its economy than funding its armed forces next year for the first time since 2014 … ahead of critical parliamentary elections. … [with economic] doldrums … amid low oil prices and western sanctions … [and with the economy] contract[ing] sharply … due to … coronavirus …. The Kremlin announced …  [higher] spending … to […]

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Because of Pandemic, Moscow This Year Spent More on Economy than on Defense

Budget, Coronavirus, Covid-19 Pandemic, Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Military, Politics, Government, Protests, Elections
Covid-19 Coronavirus file photo, adapted from image at cdc.gov

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, September 19, 2020) The pandemic has introduced major changes in Russian government policy but perhaps not one greater than this: for the first time in a very long time, the Russian government has spent more on promoting the economy than on maintaining and developing its military (sobkorr.org/news/5F6610F248362.html). The number of new cases […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. commander says evidence hasn’t corroborated intelligence of Russian bounties on U.S. troops” – The Hill/ John Bowden

Afghanistan, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Spies, Spy Allegations, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Afghanistan Map of Ethnicities

“The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan says … he has not seen evidence to corroborate claims that Russian officials placed bounties on U.S. troops … in the Middle East. … Gen. Frank McKenzie said … reports in The New York Times and other media … indicating that U.S. intelligence officials were investigating reports that Russia was offering bounties to Taliban […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Security strongmen take on key role in Russian Arctic policy” – The Barents Observer (Norway)/ Atle Staalesen

Arctic, Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Politics, Government, Protests, Elections, Spies, Spy Allegations
Arctic Map

“The Russian Security Council is given an expanded position in the management of national interests in the Arctic.” “According to a[n] [Aug. 25] decree signed by … Putin … the [Russian] Security Council is to establish a special commission … promot[ing] Russian national interests in the far northern region[,] [a]mong its responsibilities … ‘analysis of the international and social-economic situation […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Belarus’ defence minister tells military elite: ‘It is necessary to fight. And if necessary with weapons’ as Lukashenko’s counteroffensive gathers momentum” – bne Intellinews

Belarus, JRL NewsBlog, Military
Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“Belarus’ Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin told the country’s military elite that there may be a military conflict and they may be called on to use their weapons …. ‘Yes, we may have a civil war …. There’s a chance we’ll have a military conflict … Criminal order, not criminal – we are soldiers, we execute orders!’ Khrenin said …. Lukashenko […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Belarus Opposition Seeks to Reassure Russia as Strikes Go On” – Bloomberg/ Aliaksandr Kudrytski

Belarus, Germany, JRL NewsBlog, Military
Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“Opposition leaders in Belarus are seeking to reassure Russia about future relations as the biggest challenge to … Lukashenko’s 26-year rule continues with nationwide strikes. Russia is an important partner for Belarus and ‘we recognize and accept that,’ Maria Kalesnikava … top ally of opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya[] wrote in a message published … on Telegram by … [Ekho Moskvy] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Vladimir Putin is unlikely to invade Belarus” – Atlantic Council/ Anders Åslund

Belarus, CIS, Customs Union, Eurasian Union, JRL NewsBlog, Military
Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“… Lukashenka seems to be on his way out. … he could only gather a few thousand press-ganged ‘supporters’ for a regime rally … [C]olossal crowds gathered [in Minsk] … hours later to demand his departure. Lukashenka’s blatant theft of the … presidential election has united the Belarusian people against him. Presumably, the only support he can now count on […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Will Russia invade Belarus?” – bne Intellinews/ Ben Aris

Belarus, CIS, Customs Union, Eurasian Union, JRL NewsBlog, Military
Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“Russia has a lot more to lose than to gain from an annexation of Belarus. But it will be hard to lose anything in a post-Lukashenko Belarus” “… Lukashenko … [said] he would ask … Putin to help Belarus ‘restore order[,]’ … [that] protests ‘threaten the whole former Soviet space’ …. [Social media] [v]ideo … show[s] Russian army trucks … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin is reckless because we allow him to be” – Washington Post/ David Ignatius

Afghanistan, Assassinations, Beatings, Threats, Britain, UK, United Kingdom, Europe, EU, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Terrorism, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of Vladimir Putin at Podium with United Russia Logo, Gesturing

“… Putin keeps defying the norms of international behavior. … Intelligence agencies have … evidence … Russian military intelligence officers, from … shadowy Unit 29155 of the GRU, paid … Taliban … whose bombing killed three U.S. Marines in … 2019. … [S]ources … [claim] forensic links between the [Afghan operation] GRU officers … and GRU colleagues who carried out […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Registers World’s First Covid-19 Vaccine Despite Safety Concerns” – Wall Street Journal/ Thomas Grove

Coronavirus, Covid-19 Pandemic, Health, Epidemics, Substance Abuse, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Politics, Government, Protests, Elections
Coronavirus File Photo adapted from image at cdc.gov

“Officials in Russia and the West express alarm at the speed the vaccine was developed.” “[With Putin’s blessing,] Russia registered the world’s first Covid-19 vaccine … amid [anticipation, skepticism and ] safety concerns …. Moscow’s [state-run] Gamaleya Institute for Epidemiology and Microbiology developed the vaccine … [with] military testing, accelerated clinical evaluations and shortened trial times …. Russia [plans] … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Vladimir Putin Is No Mastermind, But He Has Played Russia’s Cards Well; It verges on impossible to forecast what Moscow will do tactically. What it will do strategically, however, is more intelligible and thus more predictable.” – The National Interest/ James Holmes

JRL NewsBlog, Military, NATO, Politics, Government, Protests, Elections, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“…. The Russian armed forces … have to live within their means. Russia depends heavily on exporting oil and natural gas … [L]ow energy prices constrict … national income and … ability to afford pricey armaments. Prices …  have run off a cliff amid coronavirus lockdowns. … [F]or instance … the Severnoye Design Bureau, a division of the United Shipbuilding […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Warns It Will See Any Incoming Missile as Nuclear” – AP

JRL NewsBlog, Military, Nuclear, Missile Defense, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“Russia will perceive any ballistic missile launched at its territory as a nuclear attack that warrants a nuclear retaliation, the military warned …. in … official military newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star) … [a warning] directed at the United States, which has worked to develop long-range non-nuclear weapons. [I]n June [Russia published its] … nuclear deterrent policy … envisag[ing] … […]

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RUSSIALINK: “NPT dismantlement to increase number of nuclear threshold states – Russian General Staff” – Interfax

Military, Nuclear Proliferation, Nuclear, Missile Defense, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of U.S.-Russian Senior Military Meeting, adapted from image at defense.gov with photo credit to Dominique A. Pineiro

MOSCOW. Aug 7 (Interfax) – The U.S. policy aimed at withdrawing from the agreements limiting nuclear weapons may have negative implications for the entire world, representatives of the Russian General Staff said in an article published by the Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper on Friday. “The future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is a big […]

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