“The war in Ukraine may have come at a high cost for Vladimir Putin at home. The backlash against the conflict suggests a moral split and loss of trust between the Russian public and its leadership.” “… despite the fog of war and a deepening crackdown on civil society, surprising numbers of Russians are expressing shock at and even outright […]
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Russian state television host Dmitry Kiselyov opened his Sunday primetime show with an ominous allusion to nuclear war, just hours after Putin ordered the Russian army to put its nuclear arsenal on “high alert” […]
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“The options presented include disrupting the internet across Russia, shutting off power and stopping trains in their tracks.” “… Biden [reportedly] has been presented … options … to carry out massive cyberattacks … to disrupt Russia’s ability to sustain … military operations in Ukraine …. U.S. intelligence and military cyber warriors are proposing the use of American cyberweapons on a […]
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(Article text ©2022 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – Robert Coalson – Feb. 24, 2022 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/russian-public-war-ukraine-beliefs/31720800.html) Russians awoke on the morning of February 24, like the rest of the world, to news that their country had invaded Ukraine, a neighboring country to which millions of Russians have close personal ties. The […]
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The Russian military has begun a brutal assault on the people of Ukraine without provocation, without justification, without necessity […]
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“I think this war is designed to divert attention from Russia’s problems, and it will only lead to greater impoverishment …. I consider those who unleashed this war to be bandits and thieves. I went into politics to fight this criminal regime of thieves.” […]
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“Just what a vulnerable world economy didn’t need — a conflict that accelerates inflation, rattles markets and portends trouble for everyone from European consumers to indebted Chinese developers and families in Africa that face soaring food prices. Russia’s attack on Ukraine …. threatens to inflict severe economic damage …. Russia is the world’s third-biggest [petroleum] producer … and … a […]
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“After months of tuning out American warnings that Vladimir Putin was preparing to invade Ukraine, Russians now realize that ‘this is not a game.’” “… after several television appearances by [] Putin stunned and scared some longtime observers, that [previous] sense of casual disregard turned to a deep unease. … Russia has not seen any of the jubilation that accompanied […]
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(The White House – Feb. 22, 2022 – whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2022/02/22/background-press-call-by-a-senior-administration-official-on-russia-sanctions/) MODERATOR: Thank you. And thanks, everyone, for joining today. So, as a reminder, this call is on background, attributable to a “senior administration official,” and the contents of this call are embargoed until the end of the call. For your awareness but not for reporting, the speaker on the call is […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Feb. 23, 2022) Ukraine has announced a nationwide emergency and told its citizens to leave Russia immediately, pointing to the threat of a Russian invasion. The announcements come after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized eastern Ukraine’s two breakaway territories and ordered Russian troops to “maintain peace” there. Ukraine’s national security and defense council announced a […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Feb. 16, 2022) Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he was “ready” to work with the West to de-escalate tensions over Ukraine following talks with Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday. The statement came hours after Russia announced that it was pulling back some of its 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s border to their bases following […]
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“Mixed military signals from Moscow come as Germany’s chancellor arrives for talks with Putin.” “Russia’s Defense Ministry said it … pulled back some troops from near Ukraine while noting that large-scale military maneuvers were continuing … Western officials warned that combat units were moving into forward positions. … [Russia’s] total force … is still estimated to number more than 120,000 […]
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(PONARS Eurasia Commentary – Henry E. Hale, Adam C. Lenton – Feb. 2, 2022) Henry E. Hale is Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University and co-director of PONARS Eurasia. Adam C. Lenton (@LentonAC) is a PhD candidate in political science at George Washington University. With warnings Russia will invade Ukraine growing louder by the day, […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Paul Saunders – Feb. 3, 2022) Paul Saunders is president of the Energy Innovation Reform Project and a senior fellow at the Center for the National Interest. With U.S.-Russian confrontation over Ukraine at high pitch, and a summit between the Russian and Chinese leaders looming this weekend at the Beijing Olympics, many wonder how China […]
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Many refugees from Eastern Ukraine hope for annexation by Russia, but emotional ties to the country of their birth remain (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Felix Light – Feb. 2, 2022) In 2014, Alexander Karpak cheered on pro-Russian insurgents as they took control of his hometown in Ukraine’s Luhansk region. Eight years later, he fears the outbreak of a new […]
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Russia’s core European security proposals delivered to the West represent a slippery slope toward a new, dangerous world order, a senior U.S. diplomat said […]
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(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Maxim Trudolyubov – Jan. 27, 2022) Maxim Trudolyubov is a Senior Fellow at the Kennan Institute and the Editor-at-Large of Meduza. Mr. Trudolyubov was the editorial page editor of Vedomosti between 2003 and 2015. Concert venues and cafés in Moscow are packed, and compliance with the COVID restrictions is lax. In Moscow, no one I […]
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The military build-up has sparked fears that Russia is planning an invasion, spooking NATO and its members in the region and prompting the Western alliance to explore bolstering its own deployments […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff- Jan. 27, 2022) This week, with Washington rejecting two of Moscow’s three key security demands, Russian military equipment massing near the border with Ukraine and NATO “prepared for the worst,” the question dominating global affairs remains: Will Russia invade Ukraine?The White House answer is a qualified yes, the Kremlin’s a qualified no. Two […]
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“… The nuanced Kremlin reaction made clear that Russia was not rejecting the U.S. and NATO responses out of hand or closing the door to diplomacy. … [W]ritten U.S. and NATO responses were not made public, but both had already rejected [various] demands while expressing willingness to engage on other issues such as arms control, confidence-building measures and limits on […]
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U.S. Department of State: Fact Sheet: Office of the Spokesperson …. Below are examples of Russian lies about the current crisis and its causes – and the truth […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Thomas Graham – Jan. 20, 2022) Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, served as the senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff during the George W. Bush administration. Last week’s intense talks between Russia and the West over European security seemed to end in failure. Moscow heard […]
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The meeting of allies comes a day before Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to Geneva for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jan. 20, 2022) The United States has given the green light for Baltic nations to rush U.S.-made weapons to Ukraine, with Lithuania on Thursday saying it hoped to deter “aggressor” Russia. A State Department official in Berlin, where Secretary of State Antony Blinken is holding crisis talks on Ukraine, said Washington was “expediting authorized transfers […]
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“The Kremlin’s aim would probably be to shatter Ukrainian military power and dictate terms.” “… Even with [various] advantages, Russia would struggle to occupy [Kyiv], let alone … Ukraine, … as large and populous as Afghanistan. … [O]ver 300,000 Ukrainians have gained … military experience … [M]ost have access to firearms. … [T]he Pentagon and CIA [reportedly] would both support […]
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According to the White House, U.S. intelligence officials believe Russia has deployed operatives to rebel-controlled eastern Ukraine to carry out acts of sabotage and blame them on Ukraine, in a ‘false-flag operation’ to create a pretext for possible invasion […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jan. 18, 2022) Russia is still awaiting the U.S. and NATO’s response to its sweeping demands for a new security settlement in Europe, Russia’s top diplomat said Tuesday as tensions between Moscow and the West over Ukraine continue to mount. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after a series of high-level talks last week that the […]
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“As Moscow seeks grip on Kyiv, Volodymyr Zelensky is pursuing charges against his predecessor Petro Poroshenko.” “… Firmly on the outside of international talks, Ukraine was buffeted by domestic turbulence Monday as … Poroshenko returned … from abroad to face charges of treason and financing terrorism. … Poroshenko denies wrongdoing and says … Zelensky is pursuing him as … a […]
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At the very least, several experts said recent talks appeared to be a baby step in the right direction. Or simply not a step in the wrong direction […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Peter Leonard – Jan. 12, 2022 Peter Leonard is the Central Asia editor at Eurasianet.org. Kazakhstan has never in its brief post-independence history looked so vulnerable. Last week’s unrest—which has led to dozens of deaths and nearly 10,000 arrests—saw the country’s leadership come under assault from three directions: below, within and abroad. The first murmurs […]
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“The United States and NATO [at the NATO-Russia Council’s first meeting in over two years] rejected key Russian security demands for easing tensions over Ukraine but left open … the possibility of future talks with Moscow on arms control, missile deployments and ways to prevent military incidents …. That Russia’s delegation did not walk out … and remained open to […]
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(U.S. Department of State Press Briefing – excerpt with Victoria Nuland – WASHINGTON, D.C., Jan. 11, 2022) MR PRICE: Good afternoon. Very sorry for the delay, but as you can see, we have a special guest joining us today for the second time, at least in this current iteration. She is no stranger to all of you. Victoria Nuland, the Under Secretary of State […]
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“… Tokayev said Tuesday that a contingent of Russia-led [CSTO] forces would begin leaving … in two days … the pullout … tak[ing] no more than 10 days. … [M]ore than 2,000 troops [were] d[i]spatched at the peak of the crisis … after armed clashes between government opponents and security forces and a looting spree [left] parts of the largest […]
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“While Russia and the U.S. are preparing to meet for critical strategic talks over Ukraine, residents in the rebel-controlled Ukrainian city of Donetsk claim the Ukrainian army started heavy firing on New Year’s Eve.” “… A 2015 peace agreement brokered by France and Germany ended large-scale battles, but frequent skirmishes have continued. The [OSCE] … has reported an increasing number […]
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“Kremlin tests the alliance by undermining former Soviet republics, sowing disinformation and exploiting divisions.” “The U.S. and other NATO members have deployed thousands of troops and invested heavily in weaponry to rebuild the alliance’s front line facing Russia. Moscow has parried that strategy by opening up new fronts just beyond NATO’s reach. … Rather than confront NATO head-on … Putin […]
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Russian leaders have used deception for strategic ends in ways that shed light on their geopolitical goals […]
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“The Kremlin said Tuesday it saw ‘no significant reason for optimism’ …. The talks aimed at defusing tensions over Ukraine took place in Geneva on Monday and offered no sign of immediate progress. Moscow went in insisting on guarantees to halt NATO’s eastward expansion and even roll back the military alliance’s deployments in Eastern Europe — demands that Washington had […]
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“The president of Kazakhstan announced Tuesday that [the] Russia-led security alliance [Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), including six former Soviet states,] will start pulling out its troops [from Kazakhstan] … in two days …. Protests over soaring fuel prices erupted in the oil and gas-rich Central Asian nation of 19 million on Jan. 2 and quickly spread across the country […]
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“In tightening grip over neighbors, president seeks to signal that his country is a superpower to be both feared and respected.” “… The [Russian-led CSTO] venture into Kazakhstan, at the request of the country’s leader, follows nearly 15 years of Russian interventionism in Georgia, Belarus, Ukraine and elsewhere aimed at pulling [them] even closer to Russia … propping up [Kremlin-aligned] […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Robert Legvold – Jan. 6, 2022) Robert Legvold is Marshall D. Shulman Professor Emeritus in the department of political science at Columbia University. As senior Russian officials prepare for talks on European security with Western counterparts, three aspects of the latest crisis around Ukraine point to its seeming intractability, but also lay bare an elemental […]
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“… Perhaps [Putin] wants Ukraine to fail because, were it to become a thriving democracy, it would … rebuke … his claim that Western values are unworkable in Orthodox, Slavic Russia. He may also intend to divide and weaken NATO … [and] to create an enemy abroad … to justify repression at home …. But … Ukraine is as populous […]
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“…. Russia is heading to Geneva with what amounts to an ultimatum: Unless … Putin gets security guarantees from the West, he’s prepared to invade. Biden administration officials say they want a diplomatic solution, but they’ve also been delivering warnings through public and private channels that an invasion would be bloody, protracted and extremely damaging for Russia. … The Air […]
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“As violence grows, the Russian military deployment injects a new element into the crisis in the former Soviet republic.” “… Nazarbayev steered the country along two tracks[,] [a]t home, … strengthen[ing] … Kazakh identity and weaken[ing] Russia’s historic influence[,] [while, in] foreign and defense policy … hew[ing] close to the Kremlin, assuring Russia … Kazakhstan would always remain a strategic […]
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“… Much contained in … documents … Moscow has made public — a draft agreement with NATO countries and the offer of a treaty between Russia and the United States — appears to be a non-starter [for NATO] …. NATO would have to agree to halt all membership plans, not just with Ukraine, and end military exercises close to Russia’s […]
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“… Ukraine is deeply wary of threats to its independence, so one might expect widespread alarm … [over] 100,000 or so Russian troops at the border, and … [Putin] muttering … about ‘military-technical’ action. … [But] Ukrainians have weathered eight years of war against troops backed by Russia in … Donetsk and Luhansk, which have claimed 13,000 lives. … [T]hey […]
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“But a series of revolts against a pro-Russian strongman could also plant the seeds of rebellion at home, analysts say.” “… The arrival in Kazakhstan of 2,500 troops from a Russian-led military alliance amid … violent protest was the fourth time in … two years … Moscow has flexed its muscle in neighboring states — Belarus, Armenia and Ukraine being […]
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Experts believe Moscow risks being sucked into neighboring unrest and having to manage strategic instability on two fronts […]
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Satellite images, social media posts and flight-tracking data allow private analysts to track details governments once classified […]
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Here are some of the key developments in Russia over the past week and some of the takeaways going forward […]
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