JRL NEWSWATCH: “More than 10,000 Russian troops returning to bases after drills near Ukraine – Interfax” – Reuters

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Citing the Russian military, Russian news agency Interfax states that more than 10,000 Russian troops have been returning to permanent bases after month-long drills near Ukraine […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Denies Troop Buildup Near Ukraine Means Russia Wants Conflict” – Wall Street Journal

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Leader accuses West of stoking anti-Russian sentiment in neighboring nation, warns against NATO expansion.” “… [Putin’s] comments … were a response to claims by the U.S. and Europe that Russia’s massing of tens of thousands of troops on its border with Ukraine is a prelude to an invasion of its smaller neighbor …. Putin has set Ukraine’s proposed [NATO] membership […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “NATO open to dialogue with Russia on European security demands” – Financial Times

NATO Meeting File Photo

“Moscow’s ‘red lines’ viewed as not credible, but pressure mounts to find diplomatic solution.” “… Western officials have in private rejected almost all of the demands as implausible, not credible and in contradiction to post-cold war treaties guaranteeing sovereign states’ rights to choose their defence policies. But they admit that closing the door on Moscow’s initial diplomatic offer could make […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia Accuses NATO of Ignoring De-Escalation Proposals” – Moscow Times

Alexander Grushko file photo, adapted from image at eucom.mil

In addition to closing Ukraine’s door to NATO membership, the Russian president demands that the Western military alliance halt weapons deployment on its western border […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin and Biden Speak: What They Discussed” – Moscow Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

The Russian and U.S. leaders talked about rising tensions for two hours, but the path forward for both sides, and Ukraine, remains unclear […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “CIA Chief Says Intelligence Agencies Haven’t Concluded Russia Will Invade Ukraine” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Russian President Putin is assembling a potent military force and may see a chance to act this winter, William Burns says […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Blinken and Lavrov talks break up after 30 minutes” – bne Intellinews/ Ben Aris

Blinken and Lavrov Posing Before U.S. and Russian Flags, adapted from image at ru.usembassy.gov

“U.S. Secretary of State Blinken met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Stockholm as tensions continue to escalate, but spent only 30 minutes in discussions, suggesting little progress was made in walking back the crisis.” “… Blinken appealed to … Lavrov to choose diplomacy over coercion … Amongst the most painful sanctions that Washington has so far held in reserve […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s soldiers wait in the trenches for Moscow’s next move” – The Times (UK)

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… The Biden administration has said Russian troops are massing near the Ukrainian border and is reported to be considering the dispatch of new weaponry as well as advisers to Kiev. Ukraine is already using U.S. anti-tank missiles and Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. The supply of more such advanced weaponry would dramatically increase Russian losses in the event of a […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin offers to start negotiations on a non-expansion of NATO to the east security deal” – bne Intellinews

NATO Meeting File Photo

“… Moscow has been calling for a new post-Cold War security deal with the West since 2008, when … Medvedev offer[ed] the EU a … deal during his first foreign trip. … [which was] was dismissed out of hand. Putin brought the issue up again during a … speech where he ordered Russian diplomats to get a new security deal […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Expels Some U.S. Diplomats in Latest Tit-for-Tat Action” – WSJ

File Photo of U.S. Embassy Moscow, with Russian Foreign Ministry Building in Distance

“Russia indicates that the move was in retaliation for Washington’s expulsion of more than 50 Russian diplomats.” “Russia ordered U.S. Embassy staff … in Moscow for more than three years to leave the country by Jan. 31 … [even as] diplomats [will soon] hold talks to address the worsening [U.S.-Russian] relationship …. Foreign ministry officials … indicated that the decision […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Life under siege: residents fear new surge of war in rebel-held east Ukraine” – Reuters

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… On the edge of Horlivka, … controlled by … separatists since 2014, … neighbors are trapped between the two warring sides in a conflict that the Ukrainian government says has killed more than 14,000 people. Russia has accused Ukraine of preparing to try to recapture the breakaway eastern regions by force …. Ukraine fears Russia might use that as […]

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NATO Chief Touts Alliance’s Forces In Baltics Ahead Of Foreign Ministers Meeting In Riga

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

“For the first time in our history, we have combat-ready battle groups in the Baltic region … in Latvia and … Lithuania,” Stoltenberg said …. NATO also conducts air policing and has an increased naval presence … in the Baltic region […]

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What’s Behind The Russia-Ukraine War Fears — And What Might Actually Happen?

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

The buildup of forces is evident in western Russia and also in Crimea, according to satellite images. It’s impossible to ascertain exactly what Russia’s intentions are […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Ukraine gambit seen as part of play for new Biden summit” – Reuters

File Photo of Joe Biden at Podium in Front of U.S. and State Department Flags, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

“… U.S., NATO and Ukrainian officials have raised the alarm in recent weeks over what they say are unusual Russian troop movements closer to Ukraine, suggesting that Moscow may be poised to launch a new attack on its neighbour, accusations Russia has rejected as fear-mongering. … Putin already got the attention of Biden’s White House once this year by massing […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia and Ukraine both step up military alert with combat drills” – Reuters

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Russia staged military drills in the Black Sea, south of Ukraine, … and said it needed to sharpen the combat-readiness of its conventional and nuclear forces because of heightened NATO activity near its borders. Ukraine, which with its ally the United States has said it believes Russia may be preparing an invasion, staged exercises of its own near the border […]

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Why There Won’t Be a People’s Republic of Left-Bank Ukraine Just Yet

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Simon Saradzhyan – Nov. 23, 2021) Simon Saradzhyan is the founding director of the Russia Matters Project. Evidence of recently resumed movements of Russian troops in the vicinity of Russia’s border with Ukraine (as well as farther afield) have reignited the debate about Kremlin intentions to order another military intervention on its neighbor’s territory, with […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia’s SVR: Allegations regarding concentration of forces in Russia for invading Ukraine ‘absolutely false'” – Interfax

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

MOSCOW. Nov 22 (Interfax) – The allegations that Russia has concentrated substantial forces to launch a military invasion of Ukraine are “absolutely false,” the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) said on Monday. “The press office of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service states that Washington-based officials have lately been actively scaring the international community with Russia’s alleged preparations for ‘aggression’ against […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Kremlin Slams U.S. ‘Hysteria’ Over Ukraine Conflict” – Moscow Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Peskov’s comments come after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken … declined to say whether U.S. intelligence believed … Putin was aiming to seize land from Ukraine […]

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Kremlin Lashes Out At West, Defends Troop Movements, As It Boosts Role In Belarus-EU Border Crisis

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

The Kremlin has vowed to safeguard its borders in the face of actions by countries it accused of trying to “contain” Russia and sought to walk back a Belarusian threat of a cutoff of Russian natural gas to Western markets […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin: Russia must build up defenses in view of NATO moves” – AP/ Vladimir Isachenkov

File Photo of U.S. Navy warships in Black Sea exercise, adapted from image at defense.gov with photo credit to MC1 Justin Stumberg

“… Russia has bristled at … U.S. and other NATO ships … [T]ensions between Moscow and the West have sunk to post-Cold War lows after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, … [the] insurgency in eastern Ukraine and other irritants. … Russia suspended its [NATO] mission … and ordered the closure of [NATO’s] office in Moscow after NATO … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Air Force Bombers Are Rehearsing Their New Main Mission — Sinking Russian Ships” – Forbes

File Photo of B1 Bomber in Flight, adapted from image at defense.gov, with photo credit: U.S. Air Force Photo/Bennie Davis III

A pair of B-1s could shoot 48 LRASMs at Russia’s Baltic Fleet, enough, perhaps, to sink the entire fleet in a single pass and eliminate the major threat to U.S. and allied ships in the region […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S., Georgia sign military training pact amid Russian threat on the Black Sea” – Defense News

File Photo of Tbilisi, Georgia and Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

“U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Georgian counterpart on Monday signed an agreement to extend U.S.-led military training …. ahead of [Austin’s] visits to other Black Sea allies Ukraine and Romania to deliver a message of ‘unwavering’ support for their sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russian threats. Since Russia’s war with Georgia, it has had a […]

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Iran Cements Alliance With China, Russia In Clear Message To Washington

Iran Map and Flag

The seismic, multi-generational Iran-China deal is set for full roll-out. Full membership of the economic, military and political, SCO alliance will lead to major strategic investments in Iran’s up-and-downstream sectors […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia, Belarus Agree on Economic Integration Pacts; The agreements, which cover trade, labor, currencies, taxes and energy, will deepen Moscow’s sway over its neighbor” – Wall Street Journal

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“… Putin … [said] that in the end all 28 integration programs were approved. [Putin said that] [t]hey include the integration of currency systems, the principles of levying indirect taxes … the fight against terrorism … [and] the pricing of Russian energy resources, … that a document would be signed by Dec. 1, 2023, to create a single gas market […]

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Russia Says Ukraine Organized Gas Pipeline Attack In Crimea

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Oilprice.com – Charles Kennedy – Sept. 7, 2021) Russia accused on Tuesday Ukraine’s military intelligence of having organized an attack on a natural gas pipeline in Crimea at the end of last month, in another escalation of tensions between Moscow and Kyiv. Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine back in 2014, straining the bilateral relations between one of Europe’s key natural […]

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FSU Analysts Assess the Impact of Events in Afghanistan on Russia and U.S.-R.F. Relations

File Photo of Kabul, Afghanistan, Residential Area, adapted from image at defense.gov

The perspectives of Russia’s non-government Middle East experts on … the Taliban and its impact on Russia appear to be more varied than those of Russian diplomats and … other official counterparts. [This post] compiled a selection of such views, along … [those of some] Western FSU watchers […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia supports withdrawal of foreign fighters from Libya” – AP

File Photo of Ancient Roman Arch in Libya Framing Minaret and Palm Trees, adapted from image at cia.gov

“… Lavrov said after the talks … with Najla Mangoush that the Libyan leadership ‘is forming a consultative mechanism … to formulate the concrete parameters’ under which … foreign forces will leave. Russia was among … foreign powers backing … warring sides in Libya’s conflict … [S]ome officials and media … alleg[ed] … Russian private military contractors took part in […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: No one thinking of invading Afghanistan” – Interfax

Soviet Era Afghan Soldiers with Flag

(Interfax – July 21, 2021) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has given an interview to Interfax, in which he commented on leaks in Western media regarding a German-U.S. agreement on the Nord Stream 2 project. He also said that Russia does not plan to deploy its troops in Afghanistan and deliver pinpoint strikes on terrorists there. He also denied reports […]

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West Using Ukraine to Undermine Russian National Identity and Dismember Russia, Markov Says

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, July 15, 2021) “Putin’s main mistake,” Sergey Markov says, was not introducing Russian military forces into Ukraine in the spring of 2014, a failure that has led to the rise of “an occupation regime” there and the formation of an “anti-Russia.” With his new article, the Kremlin leader has laid the foundation […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Some Investors Sense Buying Opportunity in Russia-U.S. Détente” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Outdoor Electronic Sign with Russian Exchange Data

Russian market could benefit from geopolitical calm, but Black Sea skirmish shows Russia has a habit of delivering negative surprises […]

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AUDIO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Russia Stands To Gain By Backing Belarus [Fiona Hill interview]” – NPR

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“A growing number of European countries are blocking access to Belarusian airlines. … after Belarus intercepted a commercial flight and removed and arrested Roman Protasevich, an opposition journalist who was on board. … While Western democracies try to sanction Belarus, Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, seems to support Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. … Fiona Hill … spoke to NPR’s All Things […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Biggest Navy Exercise in a Generation Will Include 25,000 Personnel Across 17 Time Zones” – Military.com

File Photo of Portions of U.S. Navy Carrier Groups Lincoln and Stennis in Mediterranean, adapted from defense.gov image relating to defense.gov video

“Tens of thousands of sailors and Marines will participate in the biggest U.S. naval exercise in a generation to test how the services will fight across vast distances as they prepare for possible conflict with China or Russia. Aircraft carriers, submarines, planes, unmanned vessels, and about 25,000 personnel will participate in Large Scale Exercise 2021 … [beginning] late summer. … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Arctic-Superpower Jostling Heats Up as Russia Takes on Key Role” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Arctic Fox Running Across Snow, adapted from image at USGS.gov, with photo credit to Mike Lockart and USGS

“Russia’s Sergei Lavrov claimed this week that ‘this is our land and our waters’ as NATO allies boost military activity” “… Russian and U.S. diplomats … [signal] rising tensions between [powers] racing to seize Arctic resources …. Arctic Council [participants] weren’t due to discuss security. But … Russia’s … Sergei Lavrov declared … the Arctic ‘is our land and our […]

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Russians Evenly Split on Whether Attacking Ukraine would Help or Hurt Putin, Lev Gudkov Says

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

The head of the Levada Center … says that 43 to 44 percent of Russians think another invasion would boost Putin’s ratings, but 40 percent say that it would have precisely the opposite effect and spark mass dissatisfaction and protests […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin denies militarization of Russian economy, says ‘everyone trying to nibble will be kicked in teeth'” – Interfax

Kremlin and River

MOSCOW. May 20 (Interfax) – The Russian economy is not being militarized, however, anyone trying to encroach on its territory will receive a harsh response, Russian President Vladimir Putin said. “The same thing has happened now and always: as soon as Russia gets stronger, a pretext is found to limit its development. As one of our emperors once said, ‘Everyone […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Arctic rivalry heats up among the great powers” – Financial Times

File Photo of Polar Bear on Snow with Bare Ground in the Background, adapted from image at nasa.gov with photo credit to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/Eric Regehr

“Friction in other parts of the globe as well as climate change are fueling tensions in the high north.” “… [N]ew or updated [arctic] strategies … have appeared … from Canada, China, the EU, France, Germany, Norway, Poland, Russia, Sweden and the UK[,] [as well as] the U.S. Air Force, Army, Coast Guard, Department of Defense, Department for Homeland Security, […]

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