JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Russia’s alliance with China is improbable, but not impossible” – Fondation pour la recherche stratégique/ Simon Saradzhyan

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

Abstract: [A]re Russia and China already in a de facto military alliance (against the U.S.), or may they soon enter one? … [This article] reviews … academic literature on alignments … and alliances … infers criteria … [and] sets out to … [assess that] relationship …. Introduction[:]  The [Russia-China] relationship … is getting stronger …. Xi Jinping[] and … Putin[] … [have met] about 30 times …. [with] Putin … [calling] Xi … ‘my dear friend’ … ‘my good long-time friend[,]’ [and] Xi …. [calling Putin] ‘… my best and bosom friend[,’ adding,’] I cherish dearly our deep friendship.’ ….  [According to different polls] … one-third of … Chinese view[] Russia as … first in terms of influencing China … [and] a clear majority of Russians have a favourable view of China. … Russia and China have also been expanding … military and security cooperation … includ[ing] joint air patrols and … naval war games in the Mediterranean. … [S]trengthening … Russian-Chinese ties ha[ve] made many[, including the West], wonder whether Moscow and Beijing are … already in a de facto military alliance (against the U.S.), or may soon enter one … significant[ly] impact[ing] … global … order.”

Saradzhyan is Founder and Director of the Russia Matters project at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. His article is based upon his  2019 Towards a China-Russia Alliance? conference hosted by Fondation pour la recherche stratégique.

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