“Russia blames U.S. ‘pressure’ for absences at Africa summit Summit takes place after Russia quit Black Sea grain deal” “… Putin [met] African leaders 10 days after Russia ended the Ukraine grain-export deal brokered by the [UN] and Turkey that had ensured safe passage of almost 33 million tons of crops via the Black Sea, helping to cool surging world […]
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“Throughout its history, the Russian currency has been a symbol and an instrument of centralized and autocratic power.” “When reading Ekaterina Pravilova’s original, fascinating and meticulously researched ‘The Ruble’ it is a good idea to keep in mind its subtitle: ‘A Political History.’ For [her] multi-layered account of the evolution of the paper ruble from … the mid-18th century until […]
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(Moscow Times – Pyotr Kozlov – July 26, 2023) Russia is doubling down in its efforts to block Ukrainian grain exports and maximize damage to Kyiv’s profits one week after it pulled out of a landmark grain deal securing Ukrainian grain exports. In addition to its systematic attacks on three Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea near Odesa in recent […]
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“Since [Putin] withdrew on July 17 from a year-old agreement that allowed Ukraine to continue exporting … wheat and corn through the Black Sea … Putin has compounded the harm not only to [Ukraine] but also to millions … across the world who rely on it for grain. … [W]ithin hours, Russia unleashed drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s export […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know It is “way too early” to judge the Ukrainian offensive a failure, said U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, adding that the war “is going to be long, it’s going be hard, it’s going be bloody.” Milley said the biggest challenge for Ukraine’s counteroffensive is getting through […]
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Twenty-two countries … have formally applied to join bloc Putin skipping summit out of consideration for BRICS: Sooklal “More than 40 nations have indicated an interest in joining the BRICS bloc of major developing economies as it seeks to expand to grow its political clout, [according to Anil Sooklal,] South Africa’s ambassador to the group …. Brazil, Russia, India and […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Having seen one-fifth of the weaponry and armor they’ve sent to the battlefield damaged or destroyed in the first two weeks of their counteroffensive, Ukrainian commanders took a pause to rethink their strategy, NYT reported on July 15, citing Western officials. So far, the Ukrainians “taken just five of the 60 miles they hope to cover to reach […]
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“The Kremlin’s decision to pull out of a deal to allow Ukrainian grain to get to the global market isn’t simply a matter of spite. While the agreement helped Kyiv and grain buyers, it hasn’t aided Russia, Moscow says.” “… [T]he Kremlin’s … decision to formally pull Russia out of the deal to keep Ukrainian grain and oilseeds flowing … […]
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“Biden Should Call on Russians to Oust Putin and End Their Isolation.” “The Biden administration has a rare opportunity to put added … pressure on Putin … offering the Russian people a path out of … economic and diplomatic isolation …. Putin’s invasion has been … a disaster for Russia, with more than 50,000 killed and 150,000 wounded, roughly one […]
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“Russia’s invasion has brought about the most severe economic hardship since the end of the Soviet Union.” “… Russia’s invasion has pushed the number of Ukrainians living in poverty to nearly a quarter of the population, … the most acute economic hardship the country has experienced since independence in 1991. … One-fifth of the country is now reliant on humanitarian […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. has included cluster munitions in its latest $800 million package of military aid to Ukraine. More than 100 countries have signed onto the Convention on Cluster Munitions, vowing to never use them, but the U.S. is not one of them. A significant percentage of the submunitions often fail to detonate, effectively turning them into […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Even though the pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive has “progressed more slowly than many had hoped,” the West’s interests “lie in continuing to arm, train and help defend Ukraine in the face of an ongoing threat from Russia ,” according to WP’s editors. One reason for “the slower rate” of Ukraine’s territorial gains is that Ukrainian forces […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “Ukrainians’ early setbacks are a sign that their offensive will be a long, deadly grind, and not a repeat of their rout of Russian troops in … Kharkiv region late last summer,” according to a new analysis by WSJ reporters Daniel Michaels and Isabel Cole. “It was always going to be difficult,” said Rob Lee, a […]
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“The excessive optimism of Putin and his ministers smacks of an attempt to convince not even mythical investors so much as themselves that business as usual is possible — and even compatible with their threats to unleash nuclear war.” “… Investors and foreign media used to see … Putin’s keynote address as an economic road map and indication of [Putin’s] […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s military command claimed, as of June 15, to have retaken approximately 40 square miles of territory in the course of its counteroffensive, even as its soldiers encountered what U.S. military officials described as fierce resistance by Russian troops. The latter have reportedly managed to destroy at least four Leopard-2 tanks, 3 Leopard 2R engineering vehicles […]
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… [At this year’s Victory Day parade,] Putin was joined … by the leaders of seven other post-Soviet countries, including all five former Soviet Central Asian republics, plus Armenia and Belarus. After more than a year of severe stress, many of those countries have sought to distance themselves from embattled Moscow and find alternative avenues for trade, political connections, and […]
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(Moscow Times – June 15, 2023) Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned Thursday that Russia is at risk of reverting to a planned economic system as it grapples with restructuring challenges driven by soaring war expenses and unprecedented Western sanctions. “The temptation to manage economic restructuring can lead to [a situation] where we suppress private initiative [by businesses], not […]
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“Even some who support the invasion and want to intensify the fight against Ukraine have become deflated about Russia’s prospects.” “… [D]eepening gloom … grip[s] Russia’s elite about … Putin’s war in Ukraine, with even the most optimistic seeing a ‘frozen’ conflict as the best available outcome …. Many within the political and business elite [reportedly] are tired of the […]
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“… Russia’s budget is murky — especially its military one. … However … consult[ing] … various experts[] … our own analysis … come[s] up with … 3% of GDP. … Three reasons explain why Russia is spending so little. The first is political. Many within the Russian government would like to continue to portray the war … as a ‘special […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Fighting flared up this week between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the former bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones and the latter reportedly sending pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters to stage incursions into Russia’s Belgorod region, according to FT and Bloomberg. Ukrainian forces regained control over 51 square miles of their land in the past month, while Russia […]
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“… If Russia suffered … defeat in Ukraine and … Putin were removed as president, by the end of 2027 core features of Russia’s state system would be recognizable on the basis of what we see today. But even a managed leadership succession would unleash considerable uncertainty, leading to a broad spectrum of plausible [political, economic and foreign policy] outcomes […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Henry Kissinger and RM Staff – May 26, 2023) This evolving compilation of observations and policy ideas about Russia by Henry Kissinger, an eminent U.S. statesman who turns 100 on May 27, 2023, was the first in Russia Matters’ “Competing Views” series, where we share prominent American thinkers’ alternative takes on U.S.-Russian relations, Russia itself […]
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( Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Two Russian rebel groups linked to the Ukrainian military raided a number of settlements in western Russia this week before being expelled. The rebels used U.S.-made vehicles in the raids, prompting U.S. officials to remind Kyiv that Washington doesn’t condone the use of U.S.-delivered equipment in attacks inside Russia. The U.S. intelligence community believes at […]
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“Whether Americans like it or not, this country will have little choice but to begin planning for an emerging world order.” “… Amid the seemingly never-ending catastrophe of the war in Ukraine, it’s become increasingly evident that China and India are likely to shape its final resolution. Russia can’t keep fighting without … [their] support … thanks to their refusal […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Chinese President Xi Jinping told leaders of the five Central Asian republics that Beijing is ready to help them strengthen “their law enforcement, security and defense” capacities. Playing host to these leaders in Xian during a two-day summit, Xi also said China would provide $3.7 billion in financing support and “free assistance” to the five republics […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Moscow blaming West at every turn: Vladimir Putin attacked the West on May 9, claiming that Russia’s future depended on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, as he attended a slimmed-down military parade to mark victory over Nazi Germany in WWII, MT reports. “A real war has once again been unleashed against our motherland,” he […]
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“The Biden administration [reportedly] is scouring the globe for offers that could entice Russia to release two wrongfully detained Americans, Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan …. The U.S. [reportedly] does not currently have any high-level Russian spies in its custody … [and therefore is] approaching allied countries [holding] Russian spies …. U.S. officials [reportedly] have also been surveying allies without […]
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(Moscow Times – April 28, 2023) Russia’s Central Bank decided Friday to hold its key interest rate at 7.5% for the fifth time in a row, noting that inflationary expectations remained high. “Over the medium-term, the balance of risks has not changed significantly and is still biased towards pro-inflationary ones,” the Bank said in a statement. Still, the Russian economy […]
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“Russia’s atomic-energy giant Rosatom does business around the world, including with the U.S. and allies like Turkey.” “… Rosatom State Atomiс Energy Corp.[] has expanded its global reach in recent years and is the world’s leader in constructing and operating nuclear projects abroad, working on 34 power units in 11 countries from China to Egypt to Hungary. In recent decades, […]
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“U.S. intelligence holds that Russia will be able to fund the war in Ukraine for at least another year, even under … unprecedented sanctions, according to leaked U.S. military documents. … While some of Russia’s economic elites might not agree with the country’s course in Ukraine, and sanctions have hurt their businesses, they are unlikely to withdraw support for … […]
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“Chinese leader Xi Jinping said … Wednesday … Beijing will send an envoy to Ukraine to discuss a possible ‘political settlement’ to Russia’s war with the country. … Xi told … Zelenskyy in a phone call that a Chinese envoy would visit Ukraine and ‘other countries’ to discuss a possible political settlement, according to a government statement …. It made […]
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(Moscow Times – April 26, 2023) President Vladimir Putin signed a decree Tuesday authorizing temporary control over foreign companies’ Russia-based assets. The move marks Russia’s latest retaliation to the freezing of its assets abroad over the invasion of Ukraine. Putin’s decree lists the Russian divisions of the German energy giant Uniper and Finland’s Fortum whose shares had already been taken […]
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“… Russia’s bureaucracy … has found ways to withstand the fusillade of sanctions …. suppl[ying] enough men and materiel to propel Russia’s invasion. … without a sharp decline in living standards, which might prompt popular unrest. But any attempt to escalate the conflict would inevitably undo these successes. Russia is having to cope with the broadest array of sanctions ever […]
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(Moscow Times – April 20, 2023) Russia’s ultra-rich have seen their wealth swell over the past year despite punishing Western sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, according to the 2023 Forbes World’s Billionaires list published late Wednesday. The overall wealth of Russian billionaires rose from $353 billion in 2022 to $505 billion this year, with the average increase […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – April 14, 2023) The latest batch of leaked top-secret U.S. intelligence assessments paint a significantly grimmer picture of Ukraine’s fighting chances than one would typically find on the editorial pages of America’s leading newspapers. The leaked documents warn that Ukraine’s anticipated spring counteroffensive will likely result in “modest territorial gains” that would fall “well short” of Kyiv’s goals, […]
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“… China has also made recent headway with its Middle East diplomacy. … [especially with] Iran and Saudi Arabia … broker[ing] a deal to restore diplomatic relations between [them]. … [Global] developments [relating to Chinese influence] are causing some concern in Washington. … A significant divergence in attitudes to the war in Ukraine is driving [global] shifts [in attitudes towards […]
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“[CIA] director … William Burns[] said Tuesday that … Putin’s military campaign in Ukraine was ‘a huge strategic failure,’ and that Moscow could soon become heavily reliant on Beijing to keep the Russian economy afloat. … As Western economies decoupled from Russia, the Kremlin turned to Beijing to backstop its losses. In 2022, two-way trade … grew by nearly 35 […]
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“The [IMF] raised its 2023 economic growth forecast for Russia on Tuesday, predicting that deficit-fueled government spending would help counteract the growing costs of its war in Ukraine. But the Russian invasion is expected to have a significant impact over the medium term, with the IMF predicting the Russian economy would be about 7% smaller by 2027 than pre-war forecasts […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Three days of Xi’s talks with Macron and von der Leyen reaffirmed their rhetorical commitment to peace in Ukraine and an end to nuclear saber-rattling, but produced no concrete measures for attaining either. A readout of the trilateral talks in Beijing by the Chinese MFA said Xi told his two guests that a ceasefire in Ukraine […]
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“Event was ‘overwhelmingly pro-Russian’, says one attendee, as bank calls clients to apologise.” “Bank of America [reporetedly] cut short an online client conference on geopolitics and apologised to attendees after some balked at what they saw as pro-Russian comments about the war in Ukraine …. The conference was designed as a two-day event beginning … Tuesday, but BofA Securities cancelled […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russia’s new foreign policy concept declares “an era of revolutionary change” in the world order, but leaves the door open to normalizing relations with the West. To facilitate the formation of a “more just, multipolar world,” Russia will prioritize the “elimination of vestiges of dominance by the U.S.,” according to the new document, which replaces Russia’s […]
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“Investment is down, labor is scarce, budget is squeezed. Oligarch: ‘There will be no money next year’” “The opening months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year drove an increase in oil and natural-gas prices that brought a windfall for Moscow. Those days are over. As the war continues into its second year and Western sanctions bite harder, Russia’s government […]
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“Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin’s summit in Moscow was nominally meant to be about bringing peace to Ukraine. But it appears to have strengthened the countries’ partnership against the West.” “When … Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow [last week] for a three-day summit with … Putin, one of the most talked about [subjects] … was a Chinese-mediated settlement for the […]
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“The most interesting outcome of the [Sino-Russian] summit [was] … Putin [saying], ‘We … favor … using the Chinese yuan for settlements between Russia and the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America.’ … [T]he world’s second-largest economy and … largest energy exporter are actively trying to dent the dollar’s dominance … of the international financial system … [that] gives […]
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“The [EU]’s plans to seize Russian assets … prioritising state assets of around US$350 billion (S$466.5 billion), [reportedly] are unprecedented and tricky …. ‘Nothing is simple’ when it comes to finding the massive sums intended to be diverted to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction … Anders Ahnlid said …. But Europe plans to be ‘innovative’ …. Private assets are often protected […]
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“Sanctions have squeezed the economy undergirding Putin’s war in Ukraine. The West can tighten the screws more, especially on Moscow’s energy revenue.” “… [S]anctions are draining Russian state revenue and shaking the country’s financial underpinnings, gradually isolating Moscow from the global financial system. But they have not sapped [the Russian Federation’s] will or capacity to fight — or triggered the […]
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“An era of gray zone warfare and sabotage creates tough financial questions.” “Western European companies invested billions of dollars in the pipelines. Whether their insurance will cover the losses caused by the sabotage depends on who perpetrated it. And as the global geopolitical standoff intensifies, companies face many more enormous losses, hunts for the perpetrator, and disputes about whether the […]
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“War in Ukraine looms over Chinese leader’s visit, while the West worries about a more-powerful Russia-China axis.” “[] Xi came into the trip — the 40th meeting between the two leaders — seeking to cast himself as a potential peacemaker in the Ukraine war, even as [] Putin demonstrates his determination to carry on the fighting. … Xi’s high-profile visit […]
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“Assets accumulated abroad may become target of Ukraine backers Record current-account surplus provided lifeline for Kremlin” “Russia was able to save abroad about a third of the $227 billion windfall earned last year from its commodity exports, creating a potential new flashpoint as the US and its allies look to tighten … sanctions …. About $80 billion is scattered across […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russia has carried out one of its largest strikes on Ukraine, with 81 missiles and 8 drones fired at 10 of Ukraine’s 27 regions on March 9. Among the missiles that were reportedly fired were 28 Kh-101 and Kh-555 air-launched cruise missiles, 20 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles, 13 S-300 surface-to-air missiles, eight Kh-31P, six Kh-59 guided […]
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