JRL NEWSWATCH: “Moral Career: Why Are Russia’s Technocrats Silent on the War?” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace/ Alexandra Prokopenko

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

“In the system of Russian state administration, excessive reflection and compunction are, if anything, a distraction from focusing on the result, and therefore a disadvantage. Efficiency and loyalty are the two main criteria for success.” “Ever since their country invaded Ukraine, there has been a deafening silence from the group of Western-educated technocrats … in charge of running Russia’s economy. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “As Europe falls into recession, Russia climbs out; Real-time data show a subdued but strengthening economy” – The Economist

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Western sanctions … have wounded Russia’s long-term economic prospects. … cut[ting] its growth potential by as much as half …. Output of oil and gas … is about 3% lower than … before the invasion and may fall further once European embargoes come into effect …. In the first six months of the war somewhere in the region of 250,000 […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Oil Exports Helping Cushion Russian Economy – IMF” – Moscow Times

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

(Moscow Times – Oct. 11, 2022) Russia’s recession will be less severe than expected due to oil exports and relatively stable domestic demand, according to the latest International Monetary Fund forecasts released on Tuesday. While the IMF estimates Russia’s economy to have contracted by 21.8% during the second quarter at a quarterly annualized rate, for the year as a whole […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin Says ‘Ball in EU’s Court’ on Restarting Nord Stream Deliveries” – Moscow Times

Gas Flame file photo

(Moscow Times – Oct. 12, 2022) Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday said his country was a reliable energy supplier and blamed the West for disruptions on the market at an energy forum in Moscow. After the Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia to Europe were damaged by explosions, Putin said “the ball was in the EU’s court” to resume deliveries. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Diplomacy Is Still (Just About) Possible in Ukraine; The Black Sea agreement offers a model for off-ramps to escalation” – Foreign Policy

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… There has been one … diplomatic effort … agreed on and implemented by all parties involved (including both Ukraine and Russia) … [that] could also serve as a framework for preventing the war from worsening. … the Black Sea Grain Initiative … mediated by Turkey and the United Nations. … … [It] paved the way for a humanitarian maritime […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Next Move in Ukraine; Mobilize, Retreat, or Something in Between?” – Foreign Affairs

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“For the first time in the war … Putin must contend with the serious prospect of losing …. [T]he near rout of Russian soldiers in the Kharkiv region … and … rapid reconquest by Ukrainian forces … clearly showed … Ukraine was on top … destroy[ing] the illusion of Russian invincibility. … Suddenly, Western leaders and strategists have been able […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Punishing Russians Won’t End the Ukraine War” -Washington Post

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“… Economic boycotts … are one way for democratic governments to demonstrate … opposition to tyranny and military aggression without … having to go to war. They also represent an effort to turn people against their autocratic leaders. Some European politicians have claimed that stopping Russians from travel[]ing to Europe will encourage them to demand an end to the war. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s Army Is Winning But Its Economy Is Losing” – Bloomberg

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“The U.S. has been generous with military and financial aid, the Europeans less so. But both must step up the effort to keep Kyiv fighting.” “… Zelenskiy and his team are acutely aware that the next three months will bring … economic and diplomatic dangers …. Economically, [Ukraine’s] … fiscal and monetary situation is … [heading towards] high inflation if […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Vladimir Putin’s total defeat is now within reach; Liz Truss and her Foreign Secretary will have to work hard to maintain Western unity in coming months” – The Telegraph (UK)

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“… [With] Russian forces … in a desperate battle to hold … the meagre gains … made … since … Putin launched the invasion, the Kremlin’s propaganda machine is continuing its attempt to indoctrinate the Russian people … [into believing that] Moscow is vanquishing its foes. … [S]tate-controlled news channels … pump out a Panglossian view of the Ukrainian conflict […]

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Summer of Sanctions 2022

Portion of U.S. Treasury Department Building Facade, North Side, with Sculpture of Alexander Hamilton

Subject: Summer of Sanctions 2022 Date: Fri, 9 Sep 2022 From: Sarah Lindemann-Komarova <echosiberia@gmail.com> Summer of Sanctions 2022 By Sarah Lindemann-Komarova Sarah Lindemann-Komarova has lived in Siberia since 1992. Was a community development activist for 20 years. Currently, focuses on research and writing. [With pictures: echosiberia.medium.com/siberian-summer-of-sanctions-2022-878f00f1e28b] Thanks to Fred Weir for the inspiration The summer of sanctions in Siberia has […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Six months into war, Russian goods still flowing to U.S.” – AP

U.S. Port File Photo adapted from image at state.gov

“… [AP] found [that] more than 3,600 shipments … have arrived at U.S. ports from Russia since it began launching missiles and airstrikes into [Ukraine]. … a significant drop from the same period in 2021 … but … add[ing] up to more than $1 billion … a month. … Russia and the U.S. were never major trading partners … so […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s Russian ‘Liberators’ Are Seeing That We Live Better Than They Do” – New York Times/ Yegor Firsov

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… This war is … Putin’s fatal mistake. Not because of economic sanctions and not because of the huge losses of troops and tanks but because [] Putin’s soldiers are from some of the poorest and most rural regions of Russia. Before this war, these men were encouraged to believe that Ukrainians lived in poverty and were culturally, economically and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why the Russian economy keeps beating expectations; Few thought it would be holding up six months into the war” – The Economist

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“… [T]he Central Bank of Russia (cbr) and Rosstat … have stopped publishing data on everything from trade to investment; many question the reliability of those numbers that are still emerging. Investment banks … have pared back … research …. Multilateral organisations have pulled economists out …. A recent paper … [from] Yale … says … a retreat of Western […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Confounds the West by Recapturing Its Oil Riches” – WSJ

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“Moscow is raking in more revenue than ever with the help of new buyers, new traders and the world’s seemingly insatiable demand for crude.” “Russia pumps almost as much oil into the global market as … before its invasion of Ukraine. With oil prices up, Moscow is also making more money. Demand from some of the world’s largest economies has […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Are sanctions on Russia working? The lessons from a new era of economic warfare” – The Economist

Portion of U.S. Treasury Department Building Facade, North Side, with Sculpture of Alexander Hamilton

“… [A] war of attrition is taking place along a thousand-kilometre front …. … [A]nother struggle is raging — an economic conflict of a ferocity and scope not seen since the 1940s, as Western countries try to cripple Russia’s $1.8trn economy with a novel arsenal of sanctions. … [I]t … reveals a great deal about liberal democracies’ capacity to project […]

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JRL NEWSLINK: “How Many of Russia’s Economies Can You Fit Into Germany’s?” – Russia Matters

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

One way geopolitics experts (and pundits) try to help the general audience size up a challenge posed by a less familiar country is to compare it to a better known country (or, in the case of an American audience, a U.S. state). That cognitive trick has been recently applied by Andrew A. Michta, an American political scientist at the George […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Steps Up Enforcement of Its Long List of Russia Sanctions” – WSJ

Portion of U.S. Treasury Department Building Facade, North Side, with Sculpture of Alexander Hamilton

“Biden administration pushes to close loopholes and lobbies countries like China and India to curb trade with Russia.” “The U.S. has imposed … powerful sanctions against Russia[] … to punish it for the invasion of Ukraine. Now, U.S. officials are pushing to ensure they are effective, closing loopholes, lobbying other nations for support, and cracking down on people abetting Russia’s […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s Black Sea deal also helps Russian farmers, economy” – AP

Wheat in Field, adapted from image at usda.gov

“… [S]hip after ship loaded with grain has sailed from Ukraine after being stuck … for nearly six months. More quietly, a parallel wartime deal met Moscow’s demands to clear the way for its wheat to get to the world, too …. While the U.S. and its European allies work to crush Russia’s finances with a web of penalties for […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Economy Contracts Sharply as War and Sanctions Take Hold” – New York Times

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“The country’s gross domestic product from April through June declined 4 percent from a year earlier, new government data shows.” “The Russian economy contracted steeply in the second quarter as the country felt … economic consequences [from] … its war in Ukraine … believe[ed] to be the start of a yearslong downturn. … Western sanctions, which cut off Russia from […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Sanctions are working – whatever Putin says” – The Spectator

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Don’t believe … Putin’s hype. The Russian economy is not OK. With western sanctions jeopardising up to 40 per cent of the country’s GDP, Putin’s assurances of an economic pivot to the East are a sham. And his weaponising of gas supplies to Europe is the financial equivalent of strapping on a suicide vest. That, roughly, is the message of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Western sanctions have had ‘limited impact’ on Russian oil output, says IEA” – Financial Times

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“Rerouting of Moscow’s crude to India, China and Turkey has helped offset curbs elsewhere.” “… Moscow’s exports of crude and oil products to Europe, the U.S., Japan and Korea had fallen by nearly 2.2mn barrels a day since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the [International Energy Agency] said. But the rerouting of flows to countries including India, China and Turkey […]

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VIDEO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “How is that Kremlin bank account looking?” – Fox

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Imported items including i-phones are still available.” “… ‘We’ve had some figures for the first half of 2022 released …’ Peter Mironenko of ‘The Bell’ tells Fox …. ‘… On the one hand … in the second quarter[] GDP fell around 4% and in the third quarter we will have about 7%. This is recession. But the scale is much […]

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Moscow Doesn’t Release All the Data It Collects But Doesn’t Keep Two Sets of Books or Falsify What It Does Issue, Former Kremlin Expert Says

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

(Paul Goble – Staunton, July 15, 2022) It is widely but incorrectly believed that the Kremlin keeps two sets of books, one that is more or less accurate on which it relies and a second that is fundamentally distorted in order to make things look better to the population than they in fact are, Dmitry Nekrasov says. According to the […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Sanctions ‘Cripple’ Russian Economy, Study Says” – Moscow Times

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

(Moscow Times – Paul Handley – Aug. 2, 2022) The Russian economy has been deeply damaged by sanctions and the exit of international business since the country invaded Ukraine, according to a new report by Yale University business experts and economists. Even though Moscow has been able to pull in billions of dollars from continued energy sales at elevated prices, […]

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VIDEO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Grain Shipment Departs for First Time Since Russian Invasion” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Ship leaves port of Odessa following deal aimed at easing the global food crisis.” “[On Monday] Ukraine dispatched its first grain shipment since the start of Russia’s invasion … the first test for a deal reached last month to allow Ukraine, one of the world’s largest grain exporters, to begin shipping some 18 million metric tons that Russia’s invasion … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s Farmers Begin a Harvest Like No Other” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Farmers brave mines and grapple with damaged equipment, but their resilience masks problems that will likely last long after the war ends.” “… Restoring destroyed [agricultural] infrastructure and getting workers to return to the fields will take time. While a recent agreement … to give grain shipments safe passage from Ukraine’s blockaded ports offers some hope … many farmers … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian central bank looks to spread risks across banking sector – Expert magazine” – Reuters

Cash, Calculator, Pen

“As Russian banks contend with foreign currency and payment headaches, the central bank [reportedly] is determined to redistribute funding and risks across the sector to safeguard those lenders [targeted by Western sanctions] …. The West imposed unprecedented measures against Russia’s banking sector after … [the] Feb. 24 [invasion of Ukraine], blocking major banks from … SWIFT … and limiting their […]

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Interview: Can Kyiv Launch An Offensive To Take Back Southern Ukraine?

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Article text Copyright © 2022 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036. – rferl.org – Reid Standish – July 27, 2022 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/pentagon-chris-dougherty-interview-southern-ukraine-offensive/31962608.html) Ukrainian forces continue to use U.S.-supplied precision rocket systems to target Russian supply lines in occupied parts of southern […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S., Europe Dig In for Long Economic Standoff With Russia” – WSJ

“After Moscow cuts gas flows again on Nord Stream, Washington and Brussels bet on longer-term effects of sanctions.” “Western governments are bracing for a protracted economic confrontation with Russia over … Ukraine, as Moscow fights back against … sanctions by disrupting energy and food supplies. On Wednesday, Russia cut natural gas … on the crucial Nord Stream pipeline to Germany […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s State Energy Firm Nears Default” – WSJ

Gas Flame file photo

“Naftogaz is seeking government approval to make payments by the end of Tuesday.” “Ukraine’s NJSC Naftogaz was hours away from default after lenders rejected its request to delay payments on more than $1.4 billion of foreign-currency bonds. … [T]he state energy company was seeking [Ukrainian government] approval … to repay … a $335 million note that matured last week. … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia and Ukraine sign grain deal to avert global food crisis; Two sides agree ‘de facto ceasefire’ to allow cargo ships to collect millions of tonnes of grain from Ukrainian ports” – Financial Times

Wheat in Field, adapted from image at usda.gov

“Kyiv and Moscow … signed a deal aimed at averting a global food crisis by agreeing [to] a ‘de facto ceasefire’ on cargo ships that will collect millions of tonnes of stranded grain from Ukrainian ports. … [with] the agreement … signed … Friday … in Istanbul …. But diplomats warned that upholding the agreement would present huge challenges amid […]

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Russians in Small Towns Far from Moscow Live in Another World, Visitor from the Capital Says

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, June 14, 2022) Russians who live in major cities and those who live in villages receive a great deal of attention. Together, they form the overwhelming majority of the population. But those who live in smaller cities and towns seldom get much attention, Sergey Nechayev says. But if one visits one of […]

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AUDIO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “Are sanctions actually hurting Russia’s economy? Here’s what you need to know” – NPR

“Just over four months ago, the U.S. and several allied nations levied unprecedented sanctions against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine. For weeks afterwards, the Russian ruble’s value tanked, foreign multinational companies pulled out of the country, and economic prospects began looking grim. But Russia responded aggressively. It shored up the ruble’s value and increased oil exports to […]

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China’s Long Game in Russia: Violating Sanctions? No. Ensuring Russia’s Survival? Yes.

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Lizzi C. Lee – June 30, 2022) Lizzi C. Lee is an economist-turned-journalist now working with Wall St TV, an independent, New York-based Chinese-language media outlet. She is the host of the ChinaEDGE Live show by SupChina. As some of the most extensive sanctions in modern history put enormous economic strain on Russia, China—Russia’s largest trading […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Official: Russia could see West’s sanctions as cause for war” – AP

Dmitri Medvedev file photo

“A senior Russian official warned Thursday that Moscow could see Western sanctions as a cause for war. Dmitry Medvedev, … deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council chaired by … Putin, denounced … Western [sanctions]  …. ‘Under certain circumstances, such hostile measures could be perceived as an act of international aggression, or even as a casus belli,’ Medvedev said … using […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “G-7 Summit Exposes West’s Challenges in Tackling Russia; Economic fallout is hampering further sanctions against Moscow as Ukraine demands more weapons to halt the Russian advance” – WSJ

File Photo of G7 Meeting, with Persons at Round Table and Long Table, with Flags and Windows Overlooking Green Space in Background

“[G7] rich democracies … agree[d] to discuss … new sanctions against Russia …. While weapons deliveries have made an immediate difference on the battlefield and Ukraine has been clamoring for more equipment to repel Moscow’s forces, sanctions have proven slow to take effect, some of them have backfired … and new ones have … been too complex to deploy quickly. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “From Russian Elites, No Sign of Broad Challenge to Putin” – New York Times

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

“Many business owners and intellectuals fled Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, but others stayed behind, struggling to redefine their lives. Their diverging choices do not add up to a broad challenge to Vladimir Putin’s war.” “… Leading Russian business owners and intellectuals fled their country after the invasion [of Ukraine] on Feb. 24, settling in places like Dubai, Istanbul […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Sanctions Push Russia to First Foreign Default Since Bolshevik Revolution” – WSJ

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“A debt default has been long in coming since Western sanctions created payment obstacles Moscow couldn’t overcome.” “Russia defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918, pushed into delinquency not for lack of money but because of punishing Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Russia missed payments on two foreign-currency bonds as of late Sunday …. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin denounces the U.S. as a fading world power.” – New York Times

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

” … Putin … on Friday reprised his critique of the United States as a declining power that treats its allies as colonies, while declaring itself exceptional and ‘the messenger of the Lord on Earth.’ … Putin, whose remarks were delayed by over an hour after the Kremlin cited ‘large-scale’ distributed denial-of-service cyberattacks on the conference’s computer systems, spoke for […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia needs economic ‘perestroika’ to end reliance on energy exports – cenbank chief” – Reuters

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“Russia must reduce its decades-old reliance on exports of raw materials and stimulate private enterprise to avoid slipping back towards a Soviet-style technological lag with the West, … [Russian] central bank [governor Nabiullina] said …. After the West imposed the most crippling sanctions in modern history to punish … Putin for the war in Ukraine, Russia’s economy is facing its […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “With Billions Going to Ukraine, Officials Warn of Potential for Fraud, Waste” – WSJ

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

“While no instances of malfeasance have emerged, current and former officials say it is likely a matter of time.” “With the U.S. sending roughly $130 million a day in military aid to Ukraine plus economic and other assistance, current and former U.S. officials warn that more must be done to ensure arms and money aren’t diverted, stolen or misused. The […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s State Energy Company Keeps Russian Gas Flowing as War Rages” – WSJ

Gas Flame file photo

“An uneasy alliance between Ukraine’s Naftogaz and its Russian counterpart sustains gas supply to Europe and fills government coffers on both sides of the fighting.” “Even as Russian rockets have peppered its facilities, Ukraine’s biggest state company has done hundreds of millions of dollars in energy business with Moscow. .. [T]he uneasy commercial truce … show[s] signs of collapse, threatening […]

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Western Sanctions Unlikely To Threaten Putin’s Government, Russian Economist Says

(Article text Copyright © 2022 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036. – rferl.org – Sergei Medvedev – June 8, 2022 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/western-sanctions-unlikely-to-threaten-putins-government-interview/31889297.html) Russia’s economy will be hit hard by Western sanctions, but President Vladimir Putin faces no immediate political risk and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Treasury bans Americans from buying Russian stocks and bonds” – CNN

Portion of U.S. Treasury Department Building Facade, North Side, with Sculpture of Alexander Hamilton

“… [T]he Treasury Department [announced Monday] that U.S. investors are prohibited from buying ‘both new and existing debt and equity securities issued by an entity in the Russian Federation.’ … [Previously] Americans were able to buy Russian stocks and bonds that change hands in secondary markets. Americans will still be allowed to sell Russian stocks and bonds … to a […]

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After 100 Days, Russian Offensive Crawls Toward Eventual Defeat

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Jamestown Foundation/PONARS – jamestown.org – Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 19 Issue: 83 – Pavel K. Baev – June 6, 2022) Russian military strategists argue that modern wars are decided in the high-intensity initial period; and the multi-pronged large-scale offensive into Ukraine was indeed launched, on February 24, 2022, with the aim of achieving a decisive success in the first couple […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How the EU’s ban on Russian oil will rock global markets” – Financial Times

Oil Wells File Photo

“Refiners will face fierce competition to secure supplies as Brussels imposes sanctions on seaborne exports.” “… [T]he EU’s 27 member states agreed to ban seaborne Russian oil imports. To placate landlocked countries such as Hungary, pipeline shipments will continue for now. … Germany’s and Poland’s willingness to taper … pipeline purchases by 2022’s close should, combined with the seaborne ban, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Seizing Russian Assets to Help Ukraine Sets Off White House Debate” – New York Times

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“The cost to rebuild Ukraine is expected to be significant. … Zelensky, estimated [in May] that it could be $600 billion after months of artillery, missile and tank attacks — meaning that even if all of Russia’s central bank assets abroad were seized, they would cover only half …. [F]inance ministers from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia urged the [EU] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Is Really Going on in the Kremlin?” – Kyiv Post/ Anders Åslund

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“… Based on current evidence, I would be surprised if [Putin] can rule Russia until the end of this year. … [T]he Kremlin must be … panic[king] … impos[ing] … Stalinist … censorship …. Putin’s war in Ukraine is an outstanding failure for which he is guilty … [h]is aim … too grand and arrogant, … his resources … too […]

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Why Russia’s Economy Hasn’t Collapsed Under The Weight Of Sanctions

Oil Well file photo

(Oilprice.com – Josh Owens – May 18, 2022) Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. and its allies implemented a set of unprecedented sanctions designed to destroy the Russian economy. The ruble crashed by nearly 50% against the dollar when the sanctions were first implemented but it has since bounced back to pre-war levels. A combination of energy exports, sanctions […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Who will pay to put Ukraine back together again?” – Financial Times

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

“Postwar reconstruction will hinge on reducing corruption and forging a genuinely close relationship with the EU.” “… [W]estern governments … are beginning to weigh up the costs and planning … needed for a postwar reconstruction effort [in Ukraine] that will rival anything … since [World War II]. The project … is going to be immensely complex and costly, running into […]

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