(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russia’s new foreign policy concept declares “an era of revolutionary change” in the world order, but leaves the door open to normalizing relations with the West. To facilitate the formation of a “more just, multipolar world,” Russia will prioritize the “elimination of vestiges of dominance by the U.S.,” according to the new document, which replaces Russia’s […]
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“Investment is down, labor is scarce, budget is squeezed. Oligarch: ‘There will be no money next year’” “The opening months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year drove an increase in oil and natural-gas prices that brought a windfall for Moscow. Those days are over. As the war continues into its second year and Western sanctions bite harder, Russia’s government […]
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“Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin’s summit in Moscow was nominally meant to be about bringing peace to Ukraine. But it appears to have strengthened the countries’ partnership against the West.” “When … Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow [last week] for a three-day summit with … Putin, one of the most talked about [subjects] … was a Chinese-mediated settlement for the […]
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“The most interesting outcome of the [Sino-Russian] summit [was] … Putin [saying], ‘We … favor … using the Chinese yuan for settlements between Russia and the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America.’ … [T]he world’s second-largest economy and … largest energy exporter are actively trying to dent the dollar’s dominance … of the international financial system … [that] gives […]
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“The [EU]’s plans to seize Russian assets … prioritising state assets of around US$350 billion (S$466.5 billion), [reportedly] are unprecedented and tricky …. ‘Nothing is simple’ when it comes to finding the massive sums intended to be diverted to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction … Anders Ahnlid said …. But Europe plans to be ‘innovative’ …. Private assets are often protected […]
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“Sanctions have squeezed the economy undergirding Putin’s war in Ukraine. The West can tighten the screws more, especially on Moscow’s energy revenue.” “… [S]anctions are draining Russian state revenue and shaking the country’s financial underpinnings, gradually isolating Moscow from the global financial system. But they have not sapped [the Russian Federation’s] will or capacity to fight — or triggered the […]
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“An era of gray zone warfare and sabotage creates tough financial questions.” “Western European companies invested billions of dollars in the pipelines. Whether their insurance will cover the losses caused by the sabotage depends on who perpetrated it. And as the global geopolitical standoff intensifies, companies face many more enormous losses, hunts for the perpetrator, and disputes about whether the […]
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“War in Ukraine looms over Chinese leader’s visit, while the West worries about a more-powerful Russia-China axis.” “[] Xi came into the trip — the 40th meeting between the two leaders — seeking to cast himself as a potential peacemaker in the Ukraine war, even as [] Putin demonstrates his determination to carry on the fighting. … Xi’s high-profile visit […]
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“Assets accumulated abroad may become target of Ukraine backers Record current-account surplus provided lifeline for Kremlin” “Russia was able to save abroad about a third of the $227 billion windfall earned last year from its commodity exports, creating a potential new flashpoint as the US and its allies look to tighten … sanctions …. About $80 billion is scattered across […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russia has carried out one of its largest strikes on Ukraine, with 81 missiles and 8 drones fired at 10 of Ukraine’s 27 regions on March 9. Among the missiles that were reportedly fired were 28 Kh-101 and Kh-555 air-launched cruise missiles, 20 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles, 13 S-300 surface-to-air missiles, eight Kh-31P, six Kh-59 guided […]
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(Moscow Times – Farida Rustamova, Maxim Tovkaylo – March 10, 2023) The first high-profile attempt by a group of Russian billionaires to get European sanctions against them lifted with help from the country’s political opposition has ended in bitter acrimony and the resignation of Leonid Volkov — a close ally of jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny — from his position […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) U.S. public’s support for aiding Ukraine is decreasing as Americans’ war weariness increases with time, according to veteran journalist Peter Baker’s news analysis in NYT. Overall, support has fallen from 60% last May to 48% now, according to AP/NORC surveys. The decline is more pronounced among Republican respondents, which shows in statements by GOP presidential contenders. […]
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“The chorus … claiming the Russian economy has proven vastly more resilient than expected is growing. … The implications are equally disturbing – that unprecedented U.S.-led sanctions don’t work. … Yet nothing could be further from the truth. Far from serving as the independent arbiter of the statistical underpinnings of global economic activity, the IMF has been asleep at the […]
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“Russia’s ruptured undersea Nord Stream gas pipelines [reportedly] are set to be sealed up and mothballed as there are no immediate plans to repair or reactivate them …. Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, each consisting of two pipes, were built by … Gazprom to pump 110 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas a year to Germany under […]
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“Tangled in sanctions and Russian bureaucracy, or just looking for a buyer, many companies who promised quick exits remain in the country.” “Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a wave of promises by global businesses to exit Russia. A year later, many of those companies are still there. … Even after finding a buyer, some companies say they are struggling to […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Assessing the first year of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Graham Allison and Stephen Kotkin underline the brute fact: Ukraine is not winning. The war has become a colossal strategic failure for Putin, but Russia does control almost one-fifth of Ukraine, Harvard’s Allison writes in his analysis of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, which was produced by the […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) U.S. officials are telling Ukrainian leaders that they are facing a critical moment to change the trajectory of the war, raising the pressure on Kyiv to make significant gains on the battlefield while aid from the West is flowing, WP reported. “We can’t do anything and everything forever,” one senior administration official said, warning that it will […]
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The Russian economy’s macro indicators for 2022 surpassed the most optimistic expectations. Kirill Rogov explains how Russia has mitigated short-term economic shocks from its war in Ukraine and the crisis that lies ahead. (Kennan Institute – Kirill Rogov – Feb. 17, 2023) Kirill Rogov is a well-known political analyst in Russia and is frequently quoted in the West by the […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Russian military has learned from its mistakes in Ukraine and now stands a chance to “snatch a diminished variant of victory from the jaws of defeat,” according to Dara Massicot of RAND. That victory would entail consolidating Russia’s control over its occupied holdings in Ukraine’s south and east, but Moscow “is unlikely to achieve its […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Warnings by Ukrainian officials of a coming Russian offensive have multiplied in the past few days. A Ukraine military intelligence official has told the Kyiv Post that the Russian attack is expected to come around Feb. 24, while an adviser to the Ukrainian military told FT that the offensive could come within 10 days. Better trained and equipped […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Feb. 3, 2023) Despite Russia’s sizeable budget deficit and other impacts of Western sanctions, Moscow will likely have enough money to keep its war against Ukraine going for a few years at least, according to several recent economic analyses. This does not mean the sanctions are useless, only that it would be “naïve to think […]
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(Oilprice.com – Charles Kennedy – Feb. 7, 2023) Russia’s budget was $24.7 billion (1.76 trillion rubles) into deficit in January. Total budget revenues slumped by 35% last month compared to the same month of 2022. The low price of Russia’s flagship grade is reducing Russian revenues from oil due to the steep discount at which Urals trades relative to the […]
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(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Maxim Trudolyubov – Feb. 3, 2023) Maxim Trudolyubov is a Senior Fellow at the Kennan Institute and the Editor-at-Large of Meduza. Russia’s economy is simple and hard to break. Because of the West’s tardy introduction of crucial sanctions and Moscow’s ability to mobilize resources, the costs of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the Russian economy […]
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“The uncoupling from Russia has not happened, partly because executives have not woken up to the return of geopolitics.” “… At the end of [2022], [reportedly] fewer than 9 per cent of the 1,404 EU and G7 companies with operations in Russia before the invasion of Ukraine had left the country …. Where there have been divestments, it has tended […]
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“Western sanctions aren’t keeping iPhones off Russian shelves or Hollywood films out of Moscow’s theaters. ‘Parallel imports’ are making Russia’s economy more resilient than expected.” “… Frustrating U.S. and European sanctions hawks, Russia appears to be weathering the West’s attempts to damage its economy in response to the invasion of Ukraine. … Via what are known as ‘parallel imports,’ Russian […]
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“A report documented a total of 2,405 subsidiaries owned by 1,404 EU and G-7 companies that were active in Russia at the time of the first military incursion into Ukraine. By November 2022, fewer than 9% had divested at least one subsidiary in Russia, and the research team noted that these divestment rates barely changed over the fourth quarter of […]
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“The resilience of Russia’s economy is helping fuel global growth, according to a new [I.M.F.] report … suggesting … [Western] efforts … to weaken Moscow because of its war in Ukraine appear to be faltering. … [T]he I.M.F. predicts … Russian output will expand 0.3 percent … this year and 2.1 percent next year, defying earlier forecasts …. A … […]
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(Oilprice.com – Tsvetana Paraskova – Jan. 19, 2023) Russia’s current account surplus hit a quarterly record in the second quarter of 2022 as its imports fell and the value of its exports soared. Since that record quarter, Russia’s current account surplus has dropped every quarter as gas exports dried up and oil prices fell. Russia’s energy export revenues are set […]
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(Moscow Times – Jan. 17, 2023) The Kremlin has given major Russian companies permission to disregard the votes of shareholders from so-called “unfriendly” countries this year as a means of combatting the effectiveness of Western sanctions. The decree, signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, stipulates that the regulations apply to big firms in the energy, engineering, and trade […]
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“Since the U.S. levied sanctions against Russian oligarchs last spring in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s wealthiest have gone to great lengths around the globe to hide their wealth. So, too, have U.S. prosecutors in pursuit of would-be sanctions evaders. … The Justice Department’s KleptoCapture unit does not only seek Kremlin companions hiding assets. It also looks for […]
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“The rebalancing is stoking Moscow’s fear of becoming a junior partner to Beijing.” “… Putin‘s use of energy as a weapon of financial war is increasingly backfiring, threatening the core of Russia’s beleaguered economy and curtailing its geopolitical influence. Western sanctions, falling prices for Russian fossil fuels and strategic miscalculations are hurting the country’s oil-and-gas industry while the war in […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Dec. 19, 2022) The time has come to build “a new structure toward achieving peace through negotiation,” according to Kissinger. “The goal of a peace process [for Ukraine] would be twofold: to confirm the freedom of Ukraine and to define a new international structure” in which “Russia should find a place,” Kissinger writes in The […]
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“When Russia called up 300,000 reservists to fill out the army’s ranks for the ongoing Ukraine war … bureaucratic chaos and public angst … erupted as men were dragged from their civilian lives into unexpected military service …. But there is a parallel, economic mobilization … still going on, to rapidly reallocate resources and labor from the civilian sector to […]
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“Once thought of as reformers, the president’s economic confidants have ended up as enablers of an invasion they warned against.” “One month before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine … Putin’s top economic confidants … brief[ed] him on the likely fallout from western sanctions. … Gref … led a 39-page presentation warning … of disastrous consequences …. Nabiullina … […]
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“The Kremlin’s ability to wage war is already constrained, but the worst is yet to come.” “… [I]ncessant debates over the effectiveness of sanctions … serve[] the Kremlin’s interests. … [W]inter fast approaching, Putin is betting that sanctions fatigue will soon set in. … [D]ata show[] that the people claiming sanctions are ineffective are wrong: Only nine months after … […]
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“Move is an attempt to squeeze the Kremlin’s oil revenues while keeping global supplies steady.” “The European Commission, the [EU]’s executive body, [reportedly] has asked the [EU]’s 27 member states to approve a … Russian oil [price cap] of $60 a barrel …. significantly below the international benchmark … Brent …. … [T]he [G7] … nations [would] need to sign […]
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(Moscow Times – Dec. 1, 2022) Russian manufacturing firms recorded their fastest rate of growth last month in almost six years due to new export orders and increased demand from domestic customers, according to a business survey published Thursday by S&P Global. Despite Western sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, “firms expanded their input buying at the […]
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(Moscow Times – Nov. 29, 2022) A longtime ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Alexei Kudrin, stepped down Tuesday as the head of the country’s Audit Chamber amid reports he will oversee the reconstruction of tech giant Yandex following sanctions over Ukraine. Kudrin, a former finance minister who has a reputation of being an economic liberal in Moscow, has been […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Li-Chen Sim – Nov. 23, 2022) Li-Chen Sim is an assistant professor at Khalifa University in the United Arab Emirates and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. One of Vladimir Lenin’s most enduring phrases regarding political power has been “kto kogo?”1 — “who [will beat] whom?” This same question is […]
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“… Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration … accus[ing] … Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer. … The biggest point of tension [recently]… has been Biden’s green subsidies and taxes that Brussels says unfairly tilt trade away from the EU and threaten to destroy European industries. Despite formal [European] objections … […]
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(oilprice.com – Josh Owens – Nov. 21, 2022) Russia has already lost over 90% of its previous top European market—northern Europe—as shipments have slumped to below 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in recent weeks from more than 1.2 million bpd before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to Bloomberg’s estimates. The EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude oil […]
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“An argument on Russian state television is a ‘good sign’ that the country’s leadership is cracking, according to [] former U.S. [A]mbassador [McFaul]. Russia [reportedly] has threatened to nationalize assets of Western companies … pull[ing] resources from the country following its [Ukraine] invasion …. Hundreds of companies have already left Russia after expressing dissatisfaction with the war … [I]f the […]
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“Western sanctions after invasion of Ukraine contribute to sharpest downturn since pandemic.” “… The contraction follows sweeping restrictions from the U.S. and Europe on Russia’s energy and financial sectors, including a block on half of the central bank’s $640bn in foreign exchange reserves. About 1,000 western companies followed suit, curtailing … Russian operations, while hundreds of thousands of people left […]
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“Negotiators are confident agreement will be reached before programme expires on Saturday” “Russia and Ukraine are close to agreeing to extend a deal securing Kyiv’s grain exports via its Black Sea ports … a crucial step to alleviating a global food crisis triggered by the conflict. … In exchange … Russia will be able to use a pipeline that transports […]
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“Increasing use of atomic power would not necessarily free economies from Moscow’s influence.” “Faced with a global energy crisis and a race to slash emissions, advanced economies are starting to reconsider nuclear power after … declining investment. … But an atomic shift does not necessarily free a country from energy dependence on Russia, given the scale of the country’s presence […]
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“As its budget surplus melts away, so does the Kremlin’s ability to support the embattled economy and fund its offensive in Ukraine.” “Russia’s war in Ukraine and … sanctions … are depleting Moscow’s coffers, hurting … Putin‘s ability to support the economy and fund the military. … add[ing] pressure on the Kremlin, which had been using ample energy revenues … […]
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“… Russia has repeatedly targeted civilian infrastructure …. successfully attack[ing] 40 percent of Ukraine’s power grids with … missiles and Iranian drones. … bomb[ing] energy facilities, including hydroelectric dams, leaving more than one million Ukrainians without electricity. In Kyiv, [reportedly] 80 percent of residents are without water …. Economists project … Kyiv’s economy will shrink by at least 35 percent […]
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“Treasury, State prod JPMorgan, Citi to bank some Russian firms; Congress lambasted banks for continuing to do work in country.” “… [T]he country’s largest banks are caught in the push-pull between the Biden administration and Congress on sanctions. Behind the scenes, the Treasury and State Departments [reportedly] have urged banking giants including JPMorgan and Citigroup to keep doing business with […]
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“History shows that nothing causes fiscal and monetary instability quite like multiple big, long conflicts.” “… Large-scale war is simultaneously destructive of productive capacity, disruptive of trade, and destabilizing of fiscal and monetary policies. … Economists tend to treat wars as ‘exogenous shocks,’ generally omitting them from their models. From the historian’s standpoint, however, war is not exogenous, but the […]
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“… [Ukraine’s] economy has adapted to war — and seems to be growing again. … Odessa’s ports. … are now operating. … A grain deal … allows Ukraine to export agricultural products. … In August just as many people entered Ukraine from the [EU] as went the other way. The share of firms working at more than half capacity reached […]
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