(oilprice.com – Charles Kennedy – Jan. 10, 2024) Drilling at Russia’s oil production wells likely beat a post-Soviet record in 2023, according to industry data Bloomberg has seen — evidence that the Western sanctions haven’t affected drilling rates much, especially at brownfields. Russia is estimated to have drilled oil production wells with a total depth of 28,100 kilometers (17,460 miles) […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “The ‘rules-based order’ that President Biden proclaims has become a slogan rather than a fact,” WP’s David Ignatius argues in his preview of how the Russian-Ukrainian war and other conflicts will evolve in 2024. In his latest column, Ignatius blasts Vladimir Putin’s aggression again Ukraine, but also reminds us how there was an “element of truth” in […]
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“The good news is it would open the door to eventual EU and NATO membership.” “According to a recent report …. [Ukrainian] troops on the front line are running out of ammunition. Artillery shells are being rationed, forcing the Ukrainians to cancel planned assaults and making it hard to hold defensive positions against Russian attacks. … As Ukraine struggles, its […]
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“Blatant violations of international laws require a response and reparations would be in line with historical precedent.” “… [One] geopolitical flashpoint[] … may be … pressure to seize Russia’s reserves in foreign central banks to fund Ukraine. Western nations … reported[ly] … have been actively exploring the move …. rais[ing] worries about … consequences for the financial system, … that […]
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“Shortfall in external aid would push a recovering economy back into survival mode, says deputy prime minister.” “Ukraine may have to postpone pay for public servants and pension payments to millions of its citizens if the EU and U.S. fail to deliver promised financial aid early next year … warn[s] [Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister] Yulia Svyrydenko …. [T]he […]
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“… Russia has successfully circumvented sanctions on its oil … divert[ing] flows from Europe to China and India, … together account[ing] for around 90% of … crude exports, [according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.] … He said … Europe’s share of Russia’s crude exports has fallen to … about 4-5% from about 40-45%. … [Regarding] … OPEC+ …, […]
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“Russia and the U.S. could be headed for a major escalation, according to [Sergei Ryabkov, Russian deputy foreign minister responsible for ties with the U.S., arms control and non-proliferation.] … [Ryakkov] said … confiscation of frozen Russian assets could lead to diplomatic relations … being severed. … [R]eports emerged that the Biden administration could be close to seizing more than […]
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“Russia’s ruling mechanism — bureaucratic institutions — may outlast the current personalism. This vast network of civil servants, technocrats, and administrators forms a modestly resilient framework that endures beyond individual political decisions, providing continuity and ensuring the steady day-to-day functioning of the government.” “A persistent question … has been whether Russia has transitioned from … authoritarian … to … totalitarian […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Miscalculations and divisions marked the efforts of Kyiv and its allies to plan the Ukrainian military’s summer offensive, according to the results of extensive research by Washington Post staff into the lead-up to the largely unsuccessful operation. “The year began with Western resolve at its peak, Ukrainian forces highly confident and … Zelensky predicting a decisive […]
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“Russia’s industrial output growth slowed in October as the unemployment rate dropped to a record low 2.9%, [according to] federal statistics … [D]eepening labour shortages show[] signs of cooling Moscow’s military production capacity. Kremlin aide Maxim Oreshkin … sought to portray low unemployment as evidence of … economic prosperity, but … Putin and his economy ministry have acknowledged Russia … […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) There is no “durable stalemate on the ground” in the Russian-Ukrainian war as there is “no clear-cut parity,” CEIP’s Michael Kofman said in a War on the Rocks podcast shortly after returning from Ukraine. Looking back, Kofman advised that “the sooner we can say” Ukraine’s counteroffensive has not been successful, “the sooner we can learn from it.” Looking […]
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“EU proposals include ban on re-export to Russia of key goods Proposals include penalties for breaches and fund for Ukraine” “… [EU’s] executive arm has proposed banning importers from reselling so-called high-priority items — like semiconductors used in weapons or needed to make them — to Russia or for use in Russia, and requiring a sum to be deposited in […]
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“[Nord Stream gas] pipelines under the Baltic Sea were damaged in explosions last year, and investigations have yet to establish who was responsible. … RIA quoted Dmitry Birichevsky [of the Russian Foreign Ministry] as saying: ‘… [W]e are waiting for [a related probe’s] results to be presented to the [UN] Security Council, then … will decide what to do.’ …” […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. Congress’ interest in financing Ukraine’s fight against invading Russian forces has “dipped lower than ever,” according to WP. Moreover, rising competition from other national security priorities could “sound the death knell for continued American aid” for Kyiv, this newspaper predicted shortly before Biden signed a bill that is designed to avoid a government shutdown, […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “In the end, Ukraine may face the reality that it needs to negotiate with a Russian foe willing to endlessly sacrifice treasure and lives on the battlefield,” according to WP editors. “That point has not been reached, but the West should give Ukraine the leverage to drive the best possible bargain if the […]
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(Moscow Times – Nov. 14, 2023) Russia has managed to almost entirely circumvent a G7 price cap on its oil exports, with Moscow claiming average sales at more than $20 per barrel above the imposed limit, the Financial Times reported Tuesday, citing Western officials and Russian export data. [ft.com/content/09e8ee14-a665-4644-8ec5-5972070463ad] According to an unnamed senior European official who spoke to FT, […]
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“Foreign firms have sold assets worth over $21 billion Third wave of business elite swoops in to grab bargains” “A new cohort of Russian business elite has emerged to benefit from the void left when international firms suddenly exited following … Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. … snapp[ing] up assets at discounted prices after … multinationals … [left due to] pressure […]
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“Busy armaments factories are depriving other industries of scarce workers” “Russia’s army and … weapons factories are sucking in a growing number of workers as Moscow braces itself for a long war … leaving civilian sectors with painful labour shortages and destabilising the … economy. … [L]abour shortages have helped expose [economic] weaknesses … contradict[ing] the [Kremlin’s] rosy picture …. […]
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“Even Republicans who support arming Ukraine are skeptical of providing more cash to the country’s government.” “… [Some] top Biden administration officials [have] urged [Congress] to provide $11.8 billion in direct budget support to Kyiv to help pay … day-to-day bills. … part of a roughly $106 billion emergency funding request covering Ukraine, Israel and other issues. … Ukraine’s economy […]
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6 Things to Know Commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces Valery Zaluzhny has admitted that his forces’ offensive has reached a stalemate, while the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces and architect of last year’s successful counteroffensive Oleksandr Syrskyi has described the current conditions along the 600-mile frontline as “difficult” and “challenging.” “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough … […]
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“Putin’s war in Ukraine is leaving billionaires who sought to integrate with the West to face the reality of international isolation.” “… Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed everything for [certain Russian oligarchs] … who prospered under Putin until the U.S. and Europe imposed sweeping sanctions aimed at isolating the Kremlin leader and bringing his economy to its knees. The penalties […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Kremlin stands to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict in three ways, according to Hanna Notte of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. The conflict distracts the West from the war in Ukraine; it hinders normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel; and it helps Russia to style itself as David to the Western […]
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“Money trickles back in, lured by the chance to help the fight against Russia and score assets on the cheap.” “… Steel-nerved investors are trickling back into Ukraine, lured by the chance to help the country in its fight against Russia — and to score assets on the cheap. … Prospects for Ukraine’s economy remain fragile. … Losing long-term backing […]
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“Chinese and Russian leaders tout trillion-dollar initiative as a model for international cooperation at summit in Beijing, but Western leaders weren’t there to hear it.” “… [O]ne war raging in Ukraine … another unfolding in the Middle East …Xi Jinping is promoting his signature foreign-policy project as a force for unity, cooperation and prosperity around the globe. At a summit […]
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“… [F]ive things to watch for … DEFENCE BOSSES … Defence Minister Li Shangfu has not been seen in public for more than six weeks …. For China, Russia is … a rich potential source of technology as the People’s Liberation Army … seeks to modernise … WEAPONS FOR WAR? … The United States has warned China against sending … […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) As violence escalated between Israel and Hamas after the latter’s indiscriminate attacks against the former, top Russian officials seized the opportunity to blame the crisis on what they described as America’s repeated failure to use its “monopoly” on mediation between the two sides to reach a fair peace deal. Vladimir Putin has also called for a cessation […]
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“… To track the war’s course, the Brookings Institution is compiling security, economic, and political data presented in graphic form …. [with] updated information on key metrics including civilian casualties, Western aid, and Ukraine’s economic challenges … track[ing] the trajectory of the conflict and its broader consequences …. The data … is … from a variety of sources (government, international […]
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(Moscow Times – Oct. 2, 2023) U.S., French and German corporations continued to dominate the Russian market in 2023 despite the Western business exodus sparked by the war in Ukraine, according to Forbes Russia’s list of the 50 largest foreign companies in the country. [forbes.ru/biznes/497010-50-krupnejsih-inostrannyh-kompanij-v-rossii-2023-rejting-forbes] The latest ranking, which also saw Chinese companies gain ground, reflects the major geopolitical shifts […]
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(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Ekaterina Kotrikadze, News Director and Anchor, TV Rain (Dozhd TV) – Sept. 27, 2023) Russian citizens are facing new restrictions. European Union authorities have just prohibited them from crossing the union’s border in cars bearing Russian license plates and from carrying certain items with them. As these restrictions were being introduced, European sanctions were being […]
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“… Zelensky’s most important speech while in New York … was not at the UN, but in a private room a few blocks away. ‘Investing in Ukraine has to be good for you and good for us. I understand capitalism,’ [Zelensky said, to] what was described … as a ‘star-struck’ group of billionaire financiers, plus Henry Kissinger, New England Patriots […]
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“… Ukraine consistently ranks in the bottom half of Transparency International’s annual global Corruption Perceptions Index … [I]n the latest survey, for 2022, only Russia was rated more corrupt in Europe. … In a [June] report … the [IMF] said donors and foreign investors need to see reforms to improve governance, transparency and tackle corruption ‘without delay.’ In a[] [June […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Sept. 22, 2023) 7 Things to Know Ukraine intends to continue its counteroffensive through the autumn and into the winter, according to remarks made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley this week. “The fight right now still has plenty of fighting weather left,” according to Gen. Milley. At the […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russia has managed to overcome sanctions and export controls imposed by the West to expand its missile production beyond prewar levels, according to U.S., European and Ukrainian officials cited by NYT. “With revenue from high energy prices, Russia’s security services and ministry of defense have been able to smuggle in the microelectronics and other Western materials […]
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“… Last year, the 27-nation [EU] … declared Ukraine an official candidate for admission. [European] [p]olicymakers … are now butting heads over whether to set a [membership] timetable …. Some are pushing for 2030 … others suggest an association short of full membership. An array of complex problems would need to be ironed out …. [Ukraine] would be by far […]
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“Billionaire’s arrest has been touted as a sign of change, but predictions of an end to oligarchy may be premature.” (opendemocracy.net – Andrii Ianitskyi – Sept. 13, 2023) Born in Sevastopol in 1983, Andriy Ianitskyi has lived in Kyiv since 2007 after graduating from the Sevastopol branch of Moscow State University. He works as a journalist and editor in the […]
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“Many emerging economies remain reluctant to take sides in the war.” “… Western countries still haven’t swung the developing world behind supporting Kyiv. Europe, Ukraine and the U.S. have successfully orchestrated several United Nations votes condemning Russia’s invasion. … [and] have started talks with dozens of other countries on … a fair peace settlement …. However, many of the biggest […]
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“The war in Ukraine is being waged on the battlefield but also globally … [T]he latter theater might be the more decisive … the financial and commercial terrain where the West’s sanctions have been deployed … [T]he effort to subvert Russia’s economy might eventually do more to end the war than any new weapons system or fresh breakthrough along the […]
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“The auto market is one of the few areas in Russia where Western sanctions had an immediate effect. Today, Russia’s car industry has been transformed, with new players, foreign and domestic, stepping to the fore.” “… When Russia’s war against Ukraine began last year, virtually all Western automakers pulled out of the country, abandoning … investments, closing dealerships, and shredding […]
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(Moscow Times – Sept 12, 2023) Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a wide-ranging address on Tuesday at the annual Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, touching upon Moscow’s protracted war against Ukraine and anti-war elites in exile, while also playing up Russia’s development of “weapons based on new physical principles.” Putin’s remarks come ahead of a rare and closely watched summit […]
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“A Russian Agricultural Bank subsidiary in Luxembourg could immediately apply to SWIFT to ‘effectively enable access’ for the bank to the international payments system within 30 days, the United Nations told Russia in a letter …. ‘SWIFT has confirmed that RSHB Capital S.A. would be eligible to apply for membership and access to SWIFT for food and fertilizer transactions, based […]
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7 Things to Know G-20 leaders began arriving in New Delhi on Sept. 8 for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine in the group’s joint statement. While it remains unclear whether a final consensus can be reached, China appears to have dropped its initial opposition to language on Ukraine and Russia, according […]
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“… After … record volumes in recent months, despite Western embargoes, dwindling production and the [Black Sea navigational] risks … Russia’s crude shipments fell to 3m barrels a day (b/d) in August … 800,000 lower than … April-May … and below pre-war levels. …. On September 5th Russia said it would extend a ‘voluntary’ 300,000 b/d cut … to the […]
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“Shunned by the West over its war in Ukraine, Russia is looking to Africa to find new international partners. And, lacking colonial history on the continent, Moscow is finding a more welcoming audience.” “… [A] military coup in the Sahel nation of Niger, supported by crowds waving Russian flags, … [overthrew] yet another pro-Western African leader … attempting to curb […]
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“… Kremlin-controlled Rosatom … continues to be the dominant source of fuel for the world’s nuclear power stations — supplying about half of global demand …. Western nations are racing to reconstitute their own processing capacity …. [U]ranium ore needs … a vast industrial process …. Rosatom is … in every part of the supply chain, from ore extraction to […]
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“Chinese exports to its neighbor have risen sharply, as Beijing sends everything from microchips to trench-digging excavators.” “China is playing an increasingly important role … propping up Russia’s economy and helping boost its war effort … [T]rade data show[s] Beijing providing a range of goods, including some with potential military applications such as microchips and trench-digging excavators. China has become […]
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“Dozens of nations have lined up to become members of BRICS.” “… The BRICS bloc — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — will use an annual leaders’ summit in Johannesburg … to begin the process of enlisting more members to bolster its global heft, a push driven mainly by Chinese President Xi Jinping but also backed by Russia […]
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“… The price of Russia’s flagship oil … jump[ing] above a [G7] imposed cap … has done little to impede … western services for the trade. …. About 40% of vessels lifting crude from Russia’s Baltic and Black Sea ports were owned by companies based in countries signed up to the cap. Before the threshold was breached, about half were […]
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(Moscow Times – Aug. 23, 2023) Russian airlines have continued to import spare parts for Western aircraft despite sanctions designed to cut off the flow of key equipment, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing customs data. Ural Airlines, Norwdind Airlines, S7, Aeroflot and others have imported $1.2 billion worth of spare parts from third parties between May 2022 and June 2023, according […]
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“From Moscow to Washington, a lack of clear and achievable strategic goals points to a long conflict.” “Russia’s war on Ukraine is in danger of becoming a protracted struggle … last[ing] several more years. … [F]ront-line combat is a slow-moving slog… [and] none of the main actors have political goals … both clear and attainable. Ukraine’s central war aim — […]
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“Is Russia’s future aligned with China? Many in Moscow think so, seeing the two countries’ visions aligning not just geopolitically, but also ideologically – though it may cost Russia considerably.” “… Russia’s turn toward Asia, and China in particular, has been greatly accelerated by souring relations with the West …. Western sanctions [have] made it a matter of urgent necessity […]
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