Russia in Review, March 31-April 7, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

1. Three days of Xi’s talks with Macron and von der Leyen reaffirmed their rhetorical commitment to peace in Ukraine and an end to nuclear saber-rattling, but produced no concrete measures for attaining either. A readout of the trilateral talks in Beijing by the Chinese MFA said Xi told his two guests that a ceasefire in Ukraine is a “pressing priority,” but contained no indications that Xi would personally get involved in mediating either peace. Xi would not even commit to calling Zelensky, telling von der Leyen that he’d eventually do so “when the conditions and time are right.” The joint statement adopted by the Chinese and French governments after Xi’s separate bilateral talks with Macron says they “support all efforts to restore peace in Ukraine,” but contained no concrete steps toward it. Importantly, the bilateral statement affirmed Xi’s and Macron’s commitment to preventing the use of nuclear weapons. It also follows from von der Leyen’s account of her bilateral with Xi that she had raised the EU’s concerns that Russia could station nuclear arms in Belarus and Xi responded by stating opposition to the threat of use of nuclear weapons. It should be noted that China’s U.N. Security Council envoy Geng Shuang declared last week that China “advocate[s] no deployment of nuclear weapons abroad by all nuclear weapons states.”¹
2. The term “no limits,” which Xi and Putin signed off on to describe their countries’ relations during the Russian leader’s visit to Beijing last year, is “nothing but rhetoric,” Chinese ambassador to the EU Fu Cong told NYT this week. The NYT quoted Fu as saying that China was not on Russia’s side in the war in Ukraine and that some people “deliberately misinterpret this because there’s the so-called ‘no limit’ friendship or relationship.” Fu also said China will not provide arms for Russia to use in Ukraine now or in the future. Chinese officials reportedly dropped the “no limits” phrase from official communications with Russia after Putin failed during his talks with Xi in February 2022 to explicitly warn his Chinese counterpart that he would invade Ukraine three weeks later.
3. With Taiwan in mind, Chinese military analysts have concluded that Putin’s nuclear threats have deterred the West from directly intervening in Ukraine.  “Russia’s strategy of nuclear deterrence certainly played a role in ensuring that NATO under the United States’ leadership did not dare to directly enter the war,”  NYT quoted Maj. Gen. Meng Xiangqing of the National Defense University in Beijing as having concluded in a recent article. This conclusion might inform Chinese strategists’ thinking on how to deter the U.S. in the event of a potential invasion of Taiwan, according to NYT. Xi may be privately telling Western leaders that he opposes such threats, but, as Meng’s article shows, the Chinese expert community views these threats as having practical utility.
4. The U.S. budget for military assistance to Ukraine is now expected to run out by around September, according to the NYT. A senior American defense official has recently described the latest tranche of artillery rounds and rockets sent to Ukraine as a “last-ditch effort,” the newspaper reported a day before the Biden administration’s April 4 pledge to commit an additional $2.6 billion in military aid to Ukraine.
5. Kyiv is willing to discuss the future of Crimea with Moscow if its forces reach the border of the Russian-occupied peninsula, Andriy Sybiha, deputy head of Zelensky’s office, told FT this week. Ukrainian forces can arrive on Crimea’s doorstep in “five to seven months,” according to Zelensky’s advisor Mykhailo Podolyak. Sybiha’s announcement appears to run counter to Zelensky’s peace formula well as his ban on negotiations with Putin. However, it is unlikely that Sybiha has not consulted his boss before making the statement, which may be designed to gauge the reaction of Ukraine’s allies and Russia to what negotiations on a peaceful resolution of the conflict can, perhaps, begin with.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• IAEA’s Rafael Grossi said he held talks in Kaliningrad on April 5 with Russian officials on the Moscow-held Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine. “I continue my efforts to protect the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. My recent visit to ZNPP confirmed the urgent need to achieve this vital objective, which is in everyone’s interest,” the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog said. (RFE/RL, 04.05.23)
• As Presidents Xi Jinping of China and Emmanuel Macron of France concluded a three-day summit on April 7, their two governments issued a joint statement that said China and France endorse the U.N. nuclear agency’s efforts to promote the security of “peaceful nuclear installations,” including the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine. (NYT, 04.07.23) See sections “Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict,” “Ukraine-related negotiations” and “Nuclear arms” for more details of Xi’s talks with Macron and von der Leyen.
• Russia’s Rosatom is planning to start building a nuclear research reactor at the Sosny Joint Institute for Power and Nuclear Research in Belarus. (Interfax, 04.07.23)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Xi told visiting Macron in Beijing on April 6 that China stands ready to issue a joint call with France [to] … avoid attacking civilians or civilian facilities [and to] to jointly address the spillover effects of the Ukraine crisis in food, energy, finance, transportation and other spheres. (Xinhua, 04.06.23)
• Ukraine’s U.N. ambassador said on April 5 that “Russian authorities have interrogated, detained, and forcibly deported over 19,500 Ukrainian children from their homes within Ukraine to Russia.” Moscow has said the children were removed for their own safety. (WP, 04.06.23)
• Maria Lvova-Belova, Russia’s commissioner for children’s rights, who has been accused by the International Criminal Court of the war crime of forcibly deporting Ukrainian children from areas of the country occupied by Russian forces, rejected that characterization of her actions as “a farce” and instead sought to portray her work as a humanitarian project. (NYT, 04.04.23)
• Russia’s war against Ukraine has claimed the lives of 262 Ukrainian athletes and destroyed 363 sports facilities, the country’s sports minister, Vadym Huttsait, said on Saturday. (Reuters, 04.01.23)
• The United Nations Human Rights Council overwhelmingly voted in favor on April 4 of extending and expanding the mandate of an investigative body probing possible war crimes committed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Twenty-eight countries voted in favor, 17 abstained and two voted against the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, which Kyiv says is essential for keeping Russia accountable for its crimes. (Reuters, 04.04.23)
• Ukrainian soldier Anton Cherednik has pleaded “partly guilty” at Russia’s first trial for war crimes in connection with its military campaign in Ukraine. Cherednik faces charges in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don of trying to seize power by force, using prohibited methods of warfare, and murdering a civilian in Mariupol in March last year. (Reuters, 04.04.23)
• Serhii Lukashchuk is part of the seventh group of Ukrainian amputees to find their way to the Protez Foundation rehabilitation clinic in Oakdale, Minn., where they were being fitted with new limbs. (NYT, 04.03.23)
• More than 280,000 Ukrainians have escaped the war through a program meant to resettle them into the homes of Americans. Refugee resettlement agencies say that many refugees have arrived at their doors after sponsors bailed. Agency staff also cited more extreme cases, like a Ukrainian woman who was asked by her sponsor to become a surrogate mother and another who had her passport confiscated and was pressured to become a second wife. (NYT, 04.02.23)
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused some $2.6 billion worth of damage to the country’s heritage and cultural sites, the UN said on April 3. (AFP, 04.03.23)
• Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar says Russian forces are carrying out “uncontrolled, barbaric” industrial-scale logging in Ukraine that will “inevitably lead to catastrophic consequences for the environment.” (RFE/RL, 04.05.23)
• Moscow has warned that it could block Ukraine’s shipments of grain to international markets unless the West removes “obstacles” to Russia’s own exports. foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said on April 7 the country was now prepared to let the deal lapse unless western capitals were willing to make concessions.” if no step is taken after 60 days, we will start questioning if we need this agreement.” (FT, 04.07.23)
• Anger is mounting among farmers in Eastern Europe who say a rush of grain from Ukraine threatens their businesses. Poland’s Agriculture Minister Henryk Kowalczyk stepped down after Polish farmers condemned his government’s inability to stop cheaper Ukrainian grain from flooding the domestic market after the EU scrapped customs duties and quotas on grain imports from Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale invasion. (FT, 04.06.23, Bloomberg, 04.02.23)

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month of fighting Russian forces have gained 30 square miles of Ukrainian territory, according to Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force, 04.04.23)

• This week Ukraine has stepped up strikes on the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol in southern Ukraine, which sits along a critical supply line to Crimea and is a potential prime target for Ukraine’s planned spring offensive. The exiled mayor of Melitopol said a Russian base near an airfield was struck. The strikes were the third attack on the city in recent days. (WSJ, 04.06.23)
• On April 3 Russian forces launched 17 Iranian-made Shahed drones from the east coast of the Sea of Azov into Ukrainian territory, according to Ukraine’s air force. Fourteen of the drones were shot down, Ukrainian officials said, but several state-owned enterprises in Odesa were hit. (WSJ, 04.04.23)
• On April 3 Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group claimed that his forces are in “legal” control of Bakhmut after planting a flag atop the ruins of its local government building located on Peace Street. On April 6 Prigozhin said Ukrainian forces were “not going anywhere” and were continuing to fight in Bakhmut, adding that Russia would need better organization and more ammunition to push beyond the besieged city. The Ukrainians “have organized defense inside the city,” Prigozhin said on his social media channel. “We cannot talk of any offensive yet.” (NYT, 04.06.23, FT, 04.03.23)
• On April 5, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, gave a vague hint that Ukraine might eventually retreat from Bakhmut. “For me, the most important issue is our military,” Zelensky said at a news conference during a visit to neighboring Poland on April 5. “Certainly, if there is a moment of even hotter events and the danger that we may lose personnel due to the encirclement, there will certainly be corresponding correct decisions of the general on the ground.” (NYT, 04.06.23)
• On April 7 Ukraine and Russia continued to slug it out in the area of the eastern city of Bakhmut, with the Ukrainian military saying that “more than 40” Russian attacks had occurred along the front in the last 24 hours. Fighting was reported around Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, and Maryinka, Ukraine’s General Staff said in its daily briefing early on April 7, describing the clashes as “fierce.” RFE/RL is not able to independently verify battlefield information. (RFE/RL, 04.07.23)

• A Ukrainian military expert, Oleksiy Melnyk, said that two factors in particular had served to impede Russia’s campaign this year. The first was the battle for the town of Vuhledar. The second was Kyiv’s decision not to abandon Bakhmut. (NYT, 04.04.23)
  • General Rustam Muradov, a top Russian commander in Ukraine, has been dismissed in the wake of unsuccessful Russian assaults near Vuhledar. (MT, 04.03.23)
  •  “The winter campaign in the Donbas is over,” said Igor Girkin, a former Russian intelligence officer. “We can say that the winter campaign ended unsuccessfully.” (NYT, 04.04.23)
• Mykhailo Podolyak, a Zelensky adviser, said on April 5 that Ukrainian forces would be on Crimea’s doorstep in “five to seven months.” (FT, 04.06.23)
  • Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Ukraine was unlikely to expel all Russian troops from its occupied territory this year. “That is a significant military task,” Milley told Defense One. (Bloomberg, 04.01.23)
• Classified war documents detailing secret American and NATO plans for building up the Ukrainian military ahead of a planned offensive against Russian troops were posted this week on social media channels, senior Biden administration officials said. The documents appear to have first leaked on social networking site 4chan before spreading to Telegram and Twitter. (FT, 04.07.23, NYT, 04.06.23)
  • The documents offer a snapshot of time — the American and Ukrainian view, as of March 1, of what Ukrainian troops might need for the campaign. (NYT, 04.06.23)
  • The documents mention the expenditure rate of HIMARS — American-supplied high mobility artillery rocket systems. (NYT, 04.06.23)
  • One document includes columns that list Ukrainian troop units, equipment and training, with schedules for January through April. The document contains a summary of 12 combat brigades that are being assembled. Of those nine brigades, the documents said that six would be ready by March 31 and the rest by April 30. (NYT, 04.06.23)
  • Military analysts said the documents appear to have been modified in certain parts from their original format. One apparently falsified document put Russian soldiers killed in action at between 16,000 and 17,500, with the number of Ukrainian soldier deaths at around 71,500. An original of this document, also leaked online, shows between 35,500 and 43,500 troop deaths on the Russian side and between 16,000 and 17,500 for Ukraine… (NYT, 04.06.23, FT, 04.07.23)
  • The Pentagon is investigating who may have been behind the leak of the documents. (NYT, 04.06.23)
  • On April 7, during a regular meeting with military brass to discuss battlefield developments, Zelensky and the commanders “focused on measures to prevent the leakage of information regarding the plans of the defense forces of Ukraine,” his office said in a statement. (NYT, 04.07.23)
  • Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky, claimed the leak is part of a Russian information operation and does not reveal Kyiv’s actual operational plans. (FT, 04.07.23)
  • Several influential Russian military bloggers, such as editors of the Grey Zone Telegram channel, expressed skepticism about the documents, noting that the leak had occurred just as both sides are preparing for heavier fighting. Another military blogger known by the pseudonym Starshe Eddy said that Ukraine and its allies were trying to add to the “fog of war.” (NYT, 04.07.23)
• Speaking during a visit to Warsaw on April 5, President Volodymyr Zelensky noted Poland’s role in convincing Western countries to provide battle tanks to Ukraine and suggested that a similar “planes coalition” could be formed. Poland’s president pledged to send 14 MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. (FT, 04.06.23, RFE/RL, 04.05.23)
• The Biden administration pledged on April 4 to commit an additional $2.6 billion in military aid to Ukraine, saying it will provide air defense systems that include gun trucks and laser-guided weapons to counter Russia’s relentless use of drones. The package includes about $500 million in equipment from U.S. military stocks for immediate or near-term transfer, plus $2.1 billion in arms that the administration will order using a congressionally approved fund known as the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, U.S. officials said. (WSJ, 04.05.23)
  • The U.S. budget for military assistance to Ukraine is now expected to run out by around September, and a senior American defense official recently described the latest tranche of artillery rounds and rockets sent to Ukraine as a “last-ditch effort.” (NYT, 04.03.23)
• Michael Turner, the GOP head of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee said on April 3 that there was “overwhelming” support in the United States to continue supplying aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russia. He spoke alongside three other Republican congressmen during a brief visit to Kyiv_. (AP, 04.03.23)
• Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Ukraine on April 3 to underscore his support for Kyiv and said he would work toward Washington supplying F-16 fighter jets and long-range missiles for the country’s war against Russia. (Reuters, 04.04.23)
• The main challenge [facing NATO] is that this war now has become a war of attrition, which means the battle of logistics is about getting ammunition, weapons, supplies to the front lines.” Stoltenberg, speaking at NATO headquarters in Brussels ahead of an April 4 meeting of foreign ministers from the military alliance’s members. (RFE/RL, 04.04.23)
• NATO foreign ministers on April 4 agreed to develop a multi-year initiative to help ensure Ukraine’s deterrence and defense, make the transition from Soviet-era equipment and doctrines to NATO standards, and increase interoperability with NATO. Allied ministers and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also discussed the importance of Ukraine’s continuing reforms. (NATO, 04.04.23)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The chief executive of one of the world’s biggest shipping insurers has warned of the growing risk of a disastrous oil spill after the knock-on effects of sanctions on Russia left thousands more ships without third-party liability cover from “well-tested” insurers. Rolf Thore Roppestad, chief executive at Norway’s Gard, said that since Russia invaded Ukraine “several thousand” more ships were trading around the globe without cover from the International Group of 12 Protection & Indemnity Clubs. (FT, 04.02.23)
• Major maintenance checks of airliners come in two types. “C” checks are supposed to happen roughly every two years. The maintenance pulls an aircraft out of service for about three to four weeks while the structure of the plane is assessed. A more extensive “D” check involves stripping almost the entire airplane apart. Last year, about 170 Russian jets were due their C checks while some 55 jets were due D checks, but they didn’t because of sanctions. (WSJ, 04.05.23)
• President Biden’s Commerce Department is weighing an enforcement action under its online-security rules against Kaspersky Lab, a Russian cybersecurity company that has long faced accusations of posing a threat to the U.S., according to people familiar with the matter. (WSJ, 04.07.23)
• Mykines Corporation LLP, a British business registered to a terraced house in a north London suburb appears to have arranged the sale of about $1.2 billion of electronics into Russia since President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine at the start of 2022. (FT, 04.07.23)
• Three out of four Russian manufacturers have been negatively impacted by Western sanctions over the past year, according to a survey of nearly 2,000 Russian companies. Seventy-seven percent of the manufacturing companies affected by sanctions said the impact was negative, according to the poll by the Higher School of Economics (HSE). (MT/AFP, 04.07.23)
  • Russia’s second-largest bank VTB, one of the first banks to be excluded from the SWIFT global payments system over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, reported a loss of 612.6 billion rubles ($7.7 billion) for 2022 on April 5.” (AFP, 04.05.23)
  • The share of Russians not concerned about Western sanctions at all increased from 30% in November to 34% in March, according to Levada. The share of Russians who were “not very concerned” about the sanctions stayed at 30% in November-March, according to the pollster. (RM, 04.07.23)
    • “The sanctions imposed against the Russian economy in the medium term could really have a negative impact,” Putin said at a televised meeting. (MT/AFP, 04.06.23)
• Under the rules introduced in Russia last week a donation equal to at least 10% of the market value of a company must be paid if the seller offers it at a discount of 90% or more. In practice, local buyers of the assets are covering the cost of the budget donation as part of any deal with foreign companies, according to people familiar with the terms of recent transactions, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. (Bloomberg, 04.04.23)
• Inditex, owner of the Zara clothing chain, has received permission from Russia to sell its business in the country that was once its second-biggest market by number of stores. Daher Group of the United Arab Emirates will be acquiring the business. (FT, 04.06.23)
• The UK is no longer investigating two of the three initial allegations against Mikhail Fridman four months after arresting the sanctions-hit Russian oligarch. The National Crime Agency has stopped probing the 58-year-old businessman on suspicion of conspiracy to defraud the Home Office and conspiracy to commit perjury, according to people with knowledge of the decision. The agency was still investigating suspected money laundering offenses, they said. (FT, 04.04.23)
• Petr Aven — whose home the NCA raided last May as part of an investigation into possible sanctions evasion — and German Khan have left the UK. Khan attended a March 16 meeting of RSPP in Moscow which Putin attended. Yevgeny Chichvarkin, a well-known Russian businessman exiled in the UK, told an interviewer in reference to Khan “Someday I will write or tell about why [he returned]. And it is very ugly from the point of view of the British authorities, what happened to him.” (FT, 04.04.23, RM, Meduza, 03.22.23)
• Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska praised the fairness of London’s courts after he fended off an attempt by a former business partner Vladimir Chernukhin to have him jailed in the UK. (Bloomberg, 04.05.23
• The U.S. government has charged an Estonian national with conspiracy related to the receipt of U.S.-made electronics by Russia’s government and military that endangered citizens in Ukraine and the United States. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York unsealed an 18-count indictment against Andrei Shevlyakov on April 5. (RFE/RL, 04.06.23)
• Ukraine’s security service accused a leading Orthodox priest at the Kyiv-Perchersk Lavra monastery of justifying Russia’s aggression. Pavel Lebid, abbot at the monastery, which is regarded as Ukraine’s most revered Orthodox site, earlier resisted an order to vacate the complex and has spoken out against Zelensky. (Bloomberg, 04.01.23)
  • Russian Orthodox Church leader Patriarch Kirill on April 6 established a new senior ecclesiastical position to oversee the Church’s activities in Ukrainian territories. (MT/AFP, 04.06.23)
• The Tushinskiy District Court of Moscow suspended the work of the Anglo-American School for 90 days, where children of diplomats and foreign businessmen study. (Meduza, 04.02.23)
• The International Monetary Fund warned that its outlook for global economic growth over the next five years is the weakest in more than three decades. The emergency lender sees the world economy expanding about 3% over the next half-decade as higher interest rates bite, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. (Bloomberg, 04.06.23)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• “If we will succeed in achieving our strategic goals on the battlefield and when we will be on the administrative border with Crimea, we are ready to open [a] diplomatic page to discuss this issue,” said Andriy Sybiha, deputy head of Zelensky’s office. His comments are the most explicit statement of Ukraine’s interest in negotiations since it cut off peace talks with the Kremlin last April. (FT, 04.06.23)
  • However, Tamila Tasheva, Zelensky’s envoy on Crimea, told Politico that the only open question on Crimea was whether Russia left voluntarily or by force. (NYT, 04.07.23)
  • Rear Admiral Tim Woods, the British defense attaché in Washington, said on April 5 that Crimea would need “a political solution because of just the concentration of force that is there and what it would mean for the Ukrainians to go in there”. He added: “I don’t think there’s going to be a very quick military solution . . . hence we need to see what are favorable conditions for Ukraine to negotiate and I think Ukraine would be up for that.” (FT, 04.06.23)
• “I know I can count on you to bring Russia back to reason and everybody to the negotiation table,” Macron told Xi during their meeting in Beijing on April 6. In his turn, Xi told Macron that China’s position is about facilitating peace talks and political settlement. There is no panacea for defusing the crisis, Xi added, according to Chinese media. “We call for restarting peace talks as soon as possible . . . taking into account the legitimate security needs of different parties … . while building a balanced, effective and sustainable European security architecture, Xi said. Xi also warned against any escalation of the crisis, but did not publicly commit to playing a more active role in influencing Moscow. (FT, 04.06.23, Bloomberg, 04.06.23, Xinhua, 04.06.23)
  • Prior to the 3-day visit to Beijing Macron said that “China, thanks to its relationship with Russia, can play a major role,” citing what he saw as positive signs like Beijing’s 12-point blueprint for peace. “Also prior to the visit Macron spoke with his US counterpart Joe Biden and the pair “reiterated their steadfast support for Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 04.05.23, AFP, 04.05.23, WSJ, 04.05.23, FT, 04.05.23)
• As Xi and Macron concluded a three-day summit on April 7, their two governments issued a joint statement that said China and France “support all efforts to restore peace in Ukraine on the basis of international law and the goals and principles of the UN Charter.” The statement, called on “all parties in the conflict to scrupulously observe international humanitarian law” and “to provide safe, fast and unhindered access for humanitarian aid.” (NYT, 04.07.23)
• A readout of the 04.06.23 Xi-Macron-der-Leyen meeting by the Chinese MFA said that Macron and de Leyen told Xi that they appreciate China’s efforts to promote a political settlement and are prepared to work with China to find a way to facilitate talks for peace. The readout said Xi told the visitors that the pressing priority is to bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine. (RM, 04.06.23)
• Von der Leyen said she had urged Xi to call Zelensky and Xi expressed a willingness to do so “when the conditions and time are right”. Asked if Xi had given a time frame for such a conversation, she demurred. She also issued a statement after the talks to assert that: “I did emphasize in our talks today that I stand firmly behind President Zelensky’s peace plan. I also welcomed some of the principles that have been put forward by China. This is notably the case on the issue of nuclear safety and risk reduction, and China’s statement on the unacceptability of nuclear threats or the use of nuclear weapons.” (EC.Europa.eu, 04.06.23, NYT, 04.06.23, FT, 04.06.23)
  • Chinese ambassador to EU Fu Cong downplayed the fact that Xi has not yet called Zelensky. He insisted the lack of a call was of no great importance, that Xi is very busy, and that there were frequent lower-level contacts between the two countries. (NYT, 04.05.23)
• The Kremlin is keeping a close eye on reports of talks between Xi and Macron as Russia sees the tete-a-tete as an “important point of contact,” Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on April 7. When asked if Macron could potentially influence China’s position on the Ukrainian conflict during his visit to Beijing, Peskov said, “China is a very serious major power that maintains its own sovereign position.” Asked about Chinese mediation said Russia had “no other avenues at the moment except continuing the ‘special military operation’”, Moscow’s euphemism for its invasion of Ukraine. (TASS, 04.07.23, FT, 04.06.23)
• China cannot act as a peace mediator over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as Beijing’s stance would rob Kyiv of its sovereignty, according to Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis. (Bloomberg, 04.05.23)
• Moscow wants any Ukraine peace talks to focus on creating a “new world order,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on a visit to Turkey on April 7. (MT/AFP, 04.07.23)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• The US Germany and Hungary are pushing back against efforts by some European allies to offer Ukraine a “road map” to Nato membership at the alliance’s July summit. Washington is concerned that deepening ties during the war could fuel Putin’s narrative of a battle between Russia and Nato itself and that Moscow may escalate the conflict, including by potentially deploying nuclear arms. Poland and the Baltic states want to offer Kyiv deeper ties with Nato and clear statements of support for its future membership. All 31 members of the alliance agree that membership is not a short-term option and could not be seriously discussed amid the war. One option under consideration is to upgrade the existing Nato-Ukraine commission to a NATO-Ukraine council. (FT, 04.06.23)
  • Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, asked on April 5 about whether some proposal about Ukraine’s NATO membership might come at the July summit in Vilnius, said that it was more important to concentrate on “the very practical steps” to get Ukraine’s military trained and equipped for the counter-offensive. (NYT, 04.06.23)
  • The Lithuanian parliament on April 6 unanimously approved a resolution proposing an invitation to Ukraine to join NATO at the alliance’s summit in July. (RFE/RL, 04.06.23)
• Finland became NATO’s newest member on 4 April 2023, upon depositing its instrument of accession to the North Atlantic Treaty. When asked what measures Russia would take, Peskov replied: “We will carefully observe what will happen in Finland, how Nato will exploit the territory of Finland in terms of placing weapons and infrastructure there, which will potentially threaten us close to our borders. Measures will be taken accordingly.” “We will strengthen our military potential in the western and northwestern direction,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said of Russia’s response. (NATO, 04.04.23, MT/AFP, 04.03.23, FT, 04.04.23)
• German plans to recruit 20,000 more soldiers by 2031 are not feasible, according to Eva Högl, parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces, highlighting the challenges for Germany as it attempts to revamp its military. I don’t think this is achievable,” Högl said. “The challenge for personnel is even greater than for equipment,” she added. Högl pointed out that the number of job applications to the Bundeswehr fell by 11 percent last year. (FT, 04.02.23)
• Prompted by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ireland’s government will re-examine its longstanding policy of military neutrality at a forum being held this summer, the country’s government said this week. (NYT, 04.07.23)
• In a 12-page document White House acknowledged that the tumultuous Afghanistan withdrawal underscored the need to better plan and more quickly implement evacuations from conflict zones in an after-action report, even as aides sought to put much of the blame on Donald Trump. (Bloomberg, 04.07.23)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Just three weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine. Putin and Xi signed a joint statement declaring “no limits” to their countries’ friendship. But Chinese ambassador to EU Fu Cong said China was not on Russia’s side on the war and that some people “deliberately misinterpret this because there’s the so-called ‘no limit’ friendship or relationship.” He added, “‘No limit’ is nothing but rhetoric.” Cong said China will not provide arms for Russia to use in Ukraine now or in the future. (NYT, 04.05.23)
• ”The shortcomings that have been exposed in the Russian military’s logistics and supplies should be a focus for us,” said an article in a magazine published by China’s agency for developing major military technology. It said that China had to prepare for similar challenges ”when we consider future sea crossings, the seizure of islands,” and other hazard-filled operations — an implicit reference to taking Taiwan. Some Chinese experts have said that Russia’s difficulties marshaling enough infantry troops suggest that China needs to keep its ground forces strong and large, even while it expands those of sea and air. (NYT, 04.01.23)
• Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi expressed serious concerns to his Chinese counterpart during his visit to Beijing about Russia-China collaboration and China’s stepped-up military activities in the East China Sea, according to the Japanese account. The Chinese foreign ministry’s description of the meeting didn’t directly address the issue of China’s ties with Russia. (WSJ, 04.02.23)
• EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell lashed out at China on April 4 for its support of Russia amid the invasion of Ukraine and called it “a blatant violation” of Beijing’s UN commitments. “There cannot be siding with the aggressor,” Borrell said. ” (AP, 04.04.23)
• China’s yuan has replaced the US dollar as the most traded currency in Russia, a year after the invasion of Ukraine led to a slew of Western sanctions against Moscow. The yuan surpassed the dollar in monthly trading volume in February for the first time, and the difference became more pronounced in March. (Bloomberg, 04.03.23)

• A Russian court has arrested a Chinese blogger for seven days and ruled to have him deported from the country one day after he was detained on charges of distributing “LGBT propaganda.” (MT/AFP, 04.06.23)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Ukraine has offered ”a new understanding of a future possible world war,” Maj. Gen. Meng Xiangqing, a professor at the National Defense University in Beijing, wrote in the Guangming Daily newspaper. He also wrote: ”Russia’s strategy of nuclear deterrence certainly played a role in ensuring that NATO under the United States’ leadership did not dare to directly enter the war.” (NYT, 04.01.23)
• As Macron and Xi concluded a three-day summit on April 7, their two governments issued a joint statement. (NYT, 04.07.23) The statement said:
  • “France and China reiterate their endorsement of the Joint [P5] Declaration … of January 3, 2022 to prevent nuclear war and avoid arms races. As this statement reminds us, “a nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought”.
  • “The two countries intend to strengthen coordination and cooperation to jointly safeguard the authority and effectiveness of the arms control and non-proliferation regime and advance the international arms control process. France and China reaffirm their commitment to [NPT].”
  • “Both sides oppose armed attacks on nuclear power plants and other peaceful nuclear facilities, support the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in its efforts to play a constructive role in promoting safety and the security of peaceful nuclear installations, including ensuring the safety and security of the Zaporizhzhia power plant.”
• According to Xinhua, Xi told visiting Macron that China stands ready to issue a joint call with France [to] earnestly honor the pledge that nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought, oppose the use of biological weapons under any circumstances, and oppose armed attacks against nuclear power plants or other civilian nuclear facilities. The Chinese leader, flanked by Macron, said that “Nuclear weapons must not be used, and nuclear war must be avoided.” (Xinhua, 04.06.23. NYT, 04.06.23)
• Ms. von der Leyen said that during her meeting with Xi she had raised the issue of nuclear weapons, specifically European concerns that Russia could station nuclear arms in Belarus, a close ally that borders Ukraine and served as a staging ground for Moscow’s invasion. She said that China had made clear that it opposed both the use of and the threat of the use of nuclear weapons, adding, “This is a point where we absolutely agreed.” (NYT, 04.06.23)
• China’s UNSC envoy Geng Shuang told a UN Security Council Briefing on Threats to International Peace and Security on March 31: “We call for the abolition of the nuclear sharing arrangements and advocate no deployment of nuclear weapons abroad by all nuclear weapons states and the withdrawal of nuclear weapons deployed aboard.” “Nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought … the threat or use of nuclear weapons should be opposed.” (UN.China-mission.gov.cn, 03.31.23)
• Security guarantees and updating approaches to this issue were on the agenda of the meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Russia-Belarus Union States, but the stationing of Russia’s strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus was not discussed at the meeting, which was co-chaired by Putin and Lukashenko on April 6, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said. (Interfax, 04.07.23)
  • The plans of deploying Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus won’t require revising Russia’s nuclear doctrine, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on April 7. (TASS, 04.07.23)
  • Russia will determine further steps to increase military cooperation with Belarus according to the evolution of the military-strategic situation, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said commenting on the possibility of deploying Russian strategic offensive weapons in Belarus. (Interfax, 04.07.23)
  • Nuclear weapons do not have to be deployed near Belarus’s western borders, Belarusian Security Council Secretary Alexander Volfovich said. Belarus stretches 650km from west to east. (Interfax, 04.06.23, president.gov.by)
  • An Iskander-M missile system, which can use conventional and nuclear missiles, has been handed over by Russia to the Armed Forces of Belarus. This was announced on April 4 by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. According to him, since April 3, at one of the Russian training grounds, training of Belarusian crews in the procedure for using the Iskander system has begun. (NG, 04.04.23)
• Putin’s March 25 announcement that Russia will station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus came just days after Russia and China jointly declared on March 21 that countries should not deploy nuclear weapons outside their borders, Stoltenberg said. He said this showed such statements are “empty promises” and that “what we need to watch closely is what Russia is doing.” (Reuters, 04.05.23)
• William Moon, a former program manager at the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency, visited Russian facilities run by the RF MoD’s 12th Main Directorate in the early 2010s. The directorate made no distinction between tactical and strategic warheads that were treated with equal care. “When we first started talking about, well, ‘are these tactical or strategic?’ they’re like, ‘No, that’s not how we think about it,'” he said. (WSJ, 04.02.23)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Senior diplomats from Russia, Turkey, Syria, and Iran on April 4 wrapped up two days of talks in Moscow that were part of the Kremlin’s efforts to help broker a rapprochement between the Turkish and Syrian governments. Moscow described the consultations as “frank and direct,” and Ankara said they were held in a “transparent and clear manner” but offered no details. (AP, 04.05.23)

Cyber security/AI:

• An officer responsible for providing encrypted communications to Putin said he has fled Russia over the war in Ukraine and disclosed details about the Russian leader. Gleb Karakulov had served as an engineer in the Federal Guard Service (FSO) presidential communications unit and accompanied Putin on more than 180 trips over the past 13 years. The officer described Putin as “paranoid.” (MT/AFP, 04.04.23, RFE/RL, 04.04.23)
• The UK’s National Cyber Force has been conducting “daily” hacking operations in support of overseas military deployments as well as targeting terrorists, cybercriminals and child pornographers, Sir Jeremy Fleming, director of GCHQ, said. (FT, 04.04.23)
• An international coalition of law enforcement agencies has taken down Genesis, one of the most user-friendly digital marketplaces for hacked data – responsible for accessing some 80 million user credentials in the past five years – the Justice Department said this week. (WP, 04.06.23)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia has decided to keep its oil production at a reduced level through 2023 amid high volatility in the global market, said Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Russia had previously pledged to cut its crude-only output by 500,000 barrels per day in March. (Bloomberg, 94.03.23)
•  The Kremlin said on April 3 that a surprise announcement by OPEC+ to cut oil production by more than one million barrels per day is “in the interests” of global energy markets. Société Générale’s highlights are that Opec+’s targeting of $90 a barrel, which is a very big ask. It’s effectively a return to levels last seen in the first months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 04.03.23. FT, 04.04.23)
• Russia exported a record volume of oil products in March. Supplies of seaborne Russian oil products totaled 3.13 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2023, according to the commodities analyst Kpler, a 31.2% year-on-year increase and just over the previous record of 3.1 million bpd exported in February 2022. (MT/AFP, 04.05.23)
• The U.S. has rallied its European allies behind a $60-a-barrel cap on purchases of Russian crude oil, but Japan is now buying oil at prices above the cap. Japan got the U.S. to agree to the exception, saying it needed it to ensure access to Russian energy. (WSJ, 04.03.23)

• Putin has given his consent to transfer 94.8 billion rubles ($1.21 billion) to Shell for its stake in the Far East Sakhalin-2 gas project. (Reuters, 04.04.23)
• A state actor’s involvement in the explosions that damaged the Nord Stream pipelines under the Baltic Sea last year is the “absolute main scenario,” although confirming identity will prove difficult, the Swedish prosecutor investigating the attacks said on April 6. (Reuters, 04.06.23)
• Intelligence leaks surrounding the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines have provided more questions than answers. It may be in no one’s interest to reveal more. Russian and Danish naval vessels disappear in the Baltic Sea, days before an underwater pipeline blast. A German charter yacht with traces of explosives, and a crew with forged passports. Blurry photographs of a mysterious object found near a single surviving pipeline strand. (NYT, 04.07.23)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Gershkovich has been charged with espionage in Russia and has entered a formal denial. A Moscow court has ruled to keep him in detention until May 29.  (AP, Izvestia,  04.07.23)
• The White House said the release of Evan Gershkovich is a priority for President Biden, as lawyers visited the jailed Wall Street Journal reporter nearly a week after Russian authorities arrested him on charges of espionage. “These charges are ridiculous. Evan is not a spy,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on April 4. (WSJ, 04.05.23)
• The US summoned Russia’s ambassador Anatoly Antonov for a meeting with Victoria Nuland, the undersecretary for political affairs, on March 30, a State Department spokesperson said, as the Biden administration pressures Moscow over the arrest and detention of Gershkovich on espionage charges. (Bloomberg, 04.06.23)
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken demanded the immediate release of Gershkovich in a phone call with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on Sunday. In subsequent remarks, Blinken said he had “no doubt” Gershkovich was wrongfully detained, but that the process to reach an official determination on his detention was pending. With that designation, the case shifts to a State Department section known as the Office of the Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs, currently run by Roger Carstens. (WSJ, 04.05.23, FT, 04.02.23, Bloomberg, 04.02.23, WSJ, 04.02.23)
• The U.S. ambassador in Moscow met on April 6 with Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov to discuss the detention of Gershkovich, a State Department official said. The Russian foreign ministry said in a statement that during the meeting Ryabkov had stressed “the serious nature of the charges” to the American. (NYT, 04.07.23)
• John Kirby, a White House spokesman, said at a news conference on April 6 that it was “inexcusable” that Russia has not provided consular access. (NYT, 04.07.23)
• In a rare joint statement, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on April 7 demanded the immediate release of Gershkovich. (WP, 04.07.23)
• Gershkovich’s attorneys have appealed his arrest on suspicion of espionage. If recent precedent is a guide, he is likely to spend more than a year in a high-security prison in almost complete isolation awaiting the end of a lengthy investigation and trial, according to two Russian lawyers who have worked on similar cases. (NYT, 04.02.23, MT, 04.03.23)
  • Fewer than 1% of defendants manage to win an acquittal in Russia, a statistic that has changed little over the years and that is cited widely by legal analysts and the U.S. State Department. In comparison, Of federal criminal defendants who went on trial in the United States in 2019, 17% were acquitted. (WSJ, 04.04.23, Pew, 06.11.19)
• At least 200 Russian journalists have signed an open letter calling on the Russian government to release Gershkovich. (MT/AFP, 04.05.23)
• The editors of Le Figaro, Les Echos, Le Monde, Libération and other French publications wrote an open letter expressing their deep concern over the detention of Gershkovich. (WSJ, 04.02.23)
• “Unfortunately, relations between Russia and the United States…. are going through a deep crisis. It is rooted in fundamentally different approaches to the formation of the modern world order,” Putin said when receiving letters of credence from 17 foreign ambassadors, including US ambassador Lynne Marie Tracy. “I must say that the use by the US of such foreign policy tools as support for the so-called color revolutions, including support for the state coup in Ukraine in 2014, ultimately led to the current crisis in Ukraine,” he said. “But we have always supported the development of Russia-US relations exclusively on the principles of equality, mutual respect for each other’s sovereignty and interests, and non-interference in internal affairs,” he said. (Kremlin.ru, 04.06.23)
• The Kremlin on April 5 said it did not want to comment on the indictment of former U.S. President Donald Trump, accused of making payments to cover up embarrassing deals ahead of the 2016 presidential election. “We will not comment on this,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said after being asked a question by reporters. “We do not believe we have the right to interfere in the internal affairs of the United States, and the United States is not entitled to interfere in our internal affairs,” he said. (MT/AFP, 04.05.23)
• Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, freed from a U.S. jail last year, on April 7 urged U.S. ex-president Donald Trump to seek refuge in Russia. (MT/AFP, 04.07.23)
• Asked how much of a threat the Russia-Ukraine conflict presents to U.S. vital interests, 56% of Americans describe it as a “critical threat,” 36% say it is “important but not critical,” and 8% do not believe it represents an important threat. 51%, also view the military power of Russia as a critical threat, though this is down significantly from 59% a year ago (Gallup, 03.13.23)
• Americans’ already-negative opinions of Russia have soured further in the past year, dropping from 15% holding a favorable view to 9%. The current reading for Russia is the lowest Gallup has measured since 1989. (Gallup, 03.13.23)

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The Kremlin’s benchmarks are for a 70% voter turnout and for Putin to win 75% of the vote in the 2024 presidential elections, according to the presidential administration’s strategy presented at a seminar for regional officials at a compound outside Moscow last week, RBC reported. “The conversation was about needing more than last time [in the 2018 elections],” one of the seminar’s participants told RBC. (MT/AFP, 04.03.23)
• When asked in late March by the Levada Center what they felt when they learned that the ICC had issued an arrest warrant for Putin, 44% said they had not heard about it. Of those who did hear about it, 22% felt fury, 5% felt alarmed and scared, 34% felt bewildered, 31% felt nothing in particular and 3% felt satisfaction. (RM, 04.05.23)
• Russia’s additional oil and gas revenues will fall short 113.6 billion rubles ($1.4 billion) below expectations in April, the Finance Ministry said April 5. The difference between expected oil and gas revenues and those received as of March totaled 39 billion rubles ($490 million), it said. (MT/AFP, 04.05.23)
• The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Russia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index posted 53.2 in March, down from 53.6 in February, signaling a solid improvement in operating conditions across the Russian manufacturing sector. Any result above the no-change 50 mark is an expansion. (BNE, 04.03.23)
• Speculation that Shell Plc may convert and repatriate more than $1 billion of ruble earnings from the sale of a project in the Far East has helped drive the Russian currency to its weakest level in a year, pushing the currency past the psychologically important level of 80 per dollar for the first time since April 2022 on April 6. (Bloomberg, 04.07.23)
• Russian oligarch Andrei Melnichenko is the wealthiest Russian in Forbes’s 2023 list of the world’s richest people, with his wealth estimated at $25.2 billion, which also makes him the world’s 58^th richest person. Vladimir Potanin is the second richest Russian, with $23.7 billion and Vladimir Lisin is third with $22.1 billion. According to the Bloomberg billionaire index, however, it is Potanin with $29.1 billion that is Russia’s richest and 46^th richest in the world. Leonid Mekhelson is second with $26.5 billion and Lisin is third with $21.2 billion. Melnicheko’s wealth is estimated to be $12.6 billion according to Bloomberg. (Meduza, 04.04.23, RM, 04.04.23)
  • Russian oligarchs added a collective $13.7 billion to their wealth in the first three months of this year, according to the Bloomberg billionaire index published April 3. (Bloomberg/BNE, 04.04.23)
• Russian payment services provider Qiwi posted an all-time record profit in 2022 as Russians found themselves cut off from cross-border transactions. Qiwi’s net revenue last year totaled 34.137 billion rubles ($436,500 million), up from 23.113 billion rubles ($295,500) in 2021. (MT, 04.03.23)
• Russia’s security services are confiscating the passports of senior officials and state company executives to prevent overseas travel. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine still raging, security officers have tightened travel requirements within the state sector, demanding the surrender of travel documents from some prominent figures and former officials, said several people familiar with the matter. (FT, 04.03.23)
• Russian prosecutors have asked that prominent opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza be sentenced to 25 years in prison, the latest sign that the Kremlin seeks to crush any public criticism of its invasion of Ukraine. (NYT, 04.07.23)
• Alexei Moskalyov, who was sentenced in absentia to two years in prison by Russia and deprived of his parental rights after his 13-year-old daughter drew an anti-war picture, is being held in a jail in Belarus. (RFE/RL, 04.07.23)
• A court in Russia’s Far Eastern region of Kamchatka has ordered the deportation of a German citizen for allegedly violating Russia’s law on promoting homosexuality. (RFE/RL, 04.07.23)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia is boosting its production of conventional and high-precision ammunition, Shoigu said. Earlier in the week, the defense ministry said the production of certain types of products will increase by seven to eight times by year-end. (Bloomberg, 04.01.23)
• Members of Russia’s invading forces in Ukraine are receiving their pay in many cases either late, not in full, or not at all, the wives of several conscripted or mobilized soldiers have told RFE/RL. (RFE/RL, 04.01.23)
• Putin on April 3 signed a decree creating a special fund to support soldiers fighting in Ukraine and their families. (MT/AFP, 04.03.23)
• The IStories project has studied the Federal Register of Disabled Persons and the Pension Fund of Russia, concluding that at least 8,000 Russian volunteers and mercenaries died during the first year of the war in Ukraine. (Istories, 04.06.23)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Russia’s Investigative Committee has formally charged Daria Trepova for terrorism offenses for her alleged role in staging an explosion at a St. Petersburg café that killed prominent Russian war blogger Maxim Fomin (aka Vladlen Tatarsky). Russia’s health ministry said 32 people were injured in the attack, and 10 were in serious condition. (RFE/RL, 04.04.23, FT, 04.04.23)
  • According to human rights group OVD-Info data, Trepova, together with her husband Dmitry Rylov, had previously been detained during an anti-war protest rally. Rylov told reporters from SVTV News that his wife had been set up. “Yes, Daria and I do not support the war, but we find such methods are unacceptable.” (FT, 04.04.23)
  • Russia’s Investigative Committee has alleged that Trepova was working on the instructions of people representing Ukraine. The Kremlin also blamed Ukraine for the bomb blast, but Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak cast the explosion as part of internal turmoil in Russia. Zelensky said on April 3: “I don’t think about what is happening in St. Petersburg or Moscow. Russia should think about this. I am thinking about our country.” (FT, 04.04.23, MT, 04.03.23. RFE/RL, 04.04.23, NPR, 04.02.23)
  • “I wouldn’t blame the Kyiv regime for these actions. I think a group of radicals is involved that is unlikely to have any connections to the government,” Prigozhin said in a statement to several Russian news outlets. (FT, 04.04.23)
  • Russia’s National Antiterrorism Committee claimed agents from Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation had been involved. On April 3, Ivan Zhdanov, chief of the Navalny Foundation, wrote on his Telegram channel: “The situation is pretty idiotic: denying our involvement is idiocy. Of course, we do not do such things.” (FT, 04.04.23)
• Two people were killed in an armed incident in Chechnya’s Gudermes on the night of March 28-29. Local residents reported a shootout at a police post in central Gudermes, as well as at a cemetery. Chechen head Ramzan Kadyrov, by contrast, claimed that the security services had tracked two militants to a private house on the edge of the city and surrounded them; there were killed when they refused to surrender. (Threatologist Eurasia, 04.06.23)
• In the Malgobek district of Ingushetia, three policemen were killed during a shootout with “members of a bandit group,” and eight more security officials were injured on April 6, according to Russian law enforcement. They believe the attackers are the same people who opened fire on a traffic police post between Ingushetia and North Ossetia on March 27, wounding two policemen. Another shootout took place on April 3 in the Malgobeksky district. (Media Zone, 04.06.23)
• Putin accused Western intelligence agencies of “regularly” staging “terrorist attacks” in Russia and in Moscow-occupied Ukrainian territories. “There is every reason to believe that … Western intelligence services are involved in the preparation of … terrorist attacks,” he added at the meeting, which was also attended by the Ukrainian regions’ Kremlin-installed heads. (MT/AFP, 04.05.23)
• The FSB has begun summoning men who have recently returned to the country after long absences during last year’s nationwide mobilization campaign, Russian investigative news website iStores reported April 6. (MT/AFP, 04.06.23)
• Two Russian conscripts who made headlines last year for refusing to fight in Ukraine during a lineup have been sentenced to three years in prison. (MT/AFP, 04.06.23)
• Russian entrepreneur Artyom Us, who is wanted by the United States for alleged “unlawful schemes to export powerful” U.S. military technology to Russia, revealed April 4 that he had returned to Russia after escaping from house arrest in Italy. (MT, 04.04.23)
• The FSB has detained a married couple in the industrial Ural Mountains city of Nizhny Tagil on suspicion of sharing details of a defense enterprise with Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 04.05.23)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia, one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, took over the rotating presidency of the body for the month of April. Lavrov, who’s under U.S. sanctions, intends to spend part of the month in New York. (Bloomberg, 04.01.23)
• “More than a thousand years of independent statehood, rich cultural heritage and the ability to ensure the harmonious coexistence of different peoples, ethnic, religious and linguistic groups on one common territory, which has been developed over many centuries, determine Russia’s special position as a unique country-civilization,” Putin said, alluding to Russia’s new foreign policy concept when receiving letters of credence from 17 foreign ambassadors. (Kremlin.ru, 04.06.23)
• The Russian Project 22350 frigate Admiral Gorshkov made history by docking in Saudi Arabia for the first time. Admiral Gorshkov left Murmansk on Jan. 4 and traveled to South Africa, where it conducted naval exercises before heading to Chabahar, Iran, for further military exercises. Last month, Russia announced naval exercises with China and Iran in the Arabian Sea, aiming to strengthen ties with both countries. (Navy Recognition, 04.06.23)
• Russia has become the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency mining country this year. (MT/AFP, 04.07.23)
• The nationalist Revival party, which is sympathetic to Putin in the Ukraine war and opposes Bulgaria joining the euro, placed third in the April 2 parliamentary elections in Bulgaria with 14.1%, up several percentage points from the previous vote last October. (Reuters, 04.03.23)

Ukraine:

• The IMF delivered its first tranche of $2.7 billion to Kyiv earlier this week as part of its four-year $15.6 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Program. As such, international reserves have risen from $28.86 billion in February to over $32 billion. However, with help from international funding, Ukraine’s international reserves have now surpassed their pre-war peak of $30.941 billion in January 2022. (BNE, 04.05.23)
• Ukraine’s credit score was cut on April 7 by S&P Global Ratings after the government unveiled a plan to restructure its external debt before mid-2024. The war-torn nation was lowered to CCC from CCC+, with a negative outlook. (Bloomberg, 04.07.23)
• Metallurgical production is Ukraine’s second-leading industry after agriculture, making up 20% of foreign exports. But the country’s steel production, which was ninth in the world in 2021, plummeted by 70% in 2022, mainly because of the destruction of major plants. (NYT, 04.07.23).
• “Donors are not afraid of the old oligarchs,” said Valeriya Gontareva, who as Ukraine’s central bank governor from 2014-2017 shuttered more than 80 commercial banks that were making forever-loans to their owners’ companies. “They’re afraid of new ones” that may feed off a Marshall plan for Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 04.06.23)
• Still missing in Ukraine is a clean-up of the judiciary and tax system, plus the digitalization of government procedures that would bring transparency. Without these steps, corruption among government ministries risks again poisoning Ukraine’s future, according to current and former officials. (Bloomberg, 04.06.23)
• Andriy Naumov, the former head of the Main Department of Internal Security of the SBU appeared on April 6 in a court in Serbia to face money-laundering charges. Naumov, who was led into the courtroom in handcuffs, faces up to 10 years in prison if convicted of money laundering. He has denied the charges. (RFE/RL, 04.06.23)
• A foundation being set up to aid Ukraine with £2.34 billion ($2.9 billion) in proceeds from Roman Abramovich’s sale of Chelsea FC is nearly ready to go with a proposed chair lined up, but U.K. government approval is taking longer than expected. (Bloomberg, 04.07.23)
• Russian border patrol officers detained the pilot of a Ukrainian light aircraft that crashed in the southern Bryansk region, which borders Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 04.06.23)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

• U.S. veterans advocacy groups sued the U.S. Department of Defense on April 3 seeking records of toxic conditions at an air base in Uzbekistan blamed for causing cancer and other illnesses among U.S. troops who served there in support of the war in Afghanistan. The lawsuit filed in federal court in Connecticut accuses military officials of withholding information about hazardous materials—including uranium, chemical weapons and asbestos—that were on the Karshi-Khanabad Air Base, during U.S. operations there from 2001 to 2005. (AP, 04.04.23)
• Kazakh national atomic company Kazatomprom announced the completion of the shipment of uranium via the Caspian Sea to Romania. The uranium will be used by Nuclearelectrica to start production at its CNU Feldioara processing plant, which the Romanian company has said is now ready to begin operations. (WNN, 04.06.23)
• Russia deported 136 Kyrgyz nationals last week on charges of undermining the country’s migration rules, while some 100 others are being held at a detention center pending possible deportation, Kyrgyz authorities said on April 5. Migrant workers are often detained for failing to renew. (RFE/RL, 04.06.23)
• Russia has banned imports of dairy products from Armenia allegedly on health issues as relations between the two allied nations sour. (RFE/RL, 04.01.23)
• In 2023, Armenian military personnel will take part in two U.S. military exercises planned in Europe. (NVO, 04.07.23)
• Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry has expelled four Iranian Embassy employees amid escalating tensions between the two neighbors. (RFE/RL, 04.06.23)
• Fast-tracking Moldova’s accession to the European Union could be possible, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on April 6. (Reuters, 04.06.23)
• Lithuania is seeking up to 120 million euros ($130 million) in compensation from Belarus, accusing its eastern neighbor of orchestrating the immigration of thousands of people, mainly from Africa and the Middle East. (AP, 04.06.23)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

Footnotes

1. Here and elsewhere italicized text represents contextual commentary by RM staff.