JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Pointed to War’s Economic Windfall With Russia Set to Vote” – Bloomberg

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Wages are soaring, unemployment falling amid labor shortage Budget deficit, dwindling reserves pose long-term challenges” “… Though the war has left hundreds of thousands killed or wounded, and long-term challenges continue to build with officials still wrestling [with] inflation … , for now, [Putin] is pointing to the economy and claiming success. The government is spending massively on social support […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Claims That Sanctions Hurt Europe More Than Russia Are Wrong” – Foreign Policy

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“A false narrative is being peddled by the Kremlin and its Western friends.” “… Russia has never been a major market for EU firms, with Russian businesses buying just 4 percent of EU exports in 2021. [A]bout half of EU exports to Russia fall under sanctions … [so] only 2 percent of EU exports are affected …. [S]anctions do not […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Is Burning Up Its Future” – Foreign Affairs

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“How Putin’s Pursuit of Power Has Hollowed Out the Country and Its People” “… Russia is neither stable nor normal. The [Russian] presidential election brings to maturity the late-stage Putinism that began with the [2020] constitutional referendum … when Putin’s potential mandate was extended until 2036. … Putin has made clear that Russia is fighting a permanent background war with […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Don’t seize: capitalise; How to put Russia’s frozen assets to work for Ukraine; Exploit them to the full, but legally” – The Economist

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“… About €190bn of [Russian] assets are controlled in Belgium by Euroclear, a custodian. … [I]nvestment returns and principal repayments it would pass on to Russia are instead piling up as a cash balance … currently … around €132bn … which Euroclear’s bank can profitably invest. The argument that Russia has no right to these returns is relatively uncontroversial, not […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Feb. 26-March 4, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “Russia’s ability to absorb military losses, its deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure and the limitations of its conventionally armed land-attack missile arsenal provides” at least two “potential insights into Russia’s theatre nuclear doctrine,” according to William Alberque of IISS. “Firstly, given Russia’s indifference to civilian casualties in Ukraine, it stands to reason that […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 23-March 1, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Vladimir Putin used his annual address to the Russian parliament to not only rattle his nuclear saber at the West again, but also to accuse his Western counterparts of “spooking the world” with the threat of a nuclear war, all while claiming to be ready for talks on nuclear arms control. “We remember what […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s resilience to sanctions shows it is ‘costly and unattainable’ to isolate a large and globally integrated economy, economist says” – Business Insider

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Russia’s economy remains resilient against Western sanctions. Economist Elina Ribakova wrote about the limitations of trying to isolate a globally integrated economy like Russia. The West’s experience sanctioning Russia could help in crafting potential future trade restrictions against China.” “Despite sweeping … sanctions over … Ukraine, Russia posted … GDP growth of 3.6% in 2023 after contracting 1.2% in 2022. […]

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VIDEO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland: The Two-Year Anniversary of Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine” – CSIS

File Photo of Victoria Nuland Testifying

“Max Bergmann: … Two years on, a grinding conflict continues. … Ukraine and its European dream did not perish with Russia’s invasion … due to the bravery of Ukraine, but also the result of support from the United States and its European allies. … [W]ith the war now entering its third year, it is worth taking stock. … Ambassador Victoria […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Unveils Biggest Sanctions Package on Russia Since War Began” – Bloomberg

Portion of U.S. Treasury Department Building Facade, North Side, with Sculpture of Alexander Hamilton

“Drone maker, payment system are among targets of penalties Yellen says Russia’s economy showing ‘signs of weakness’” “U.S. holds off metals sanctions amid fears of economic chaos Russia’s economy still forecast to grow up to 1.5% in 2024″ “The U.S. unveiled its biggest one-day sanctions package against Russia since the [full-scale] invasion of Ukraine … targeting more than 500 people […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “After two years of war, Russia finds itself frozen, but transformed” – Christian Science Monitor

Kremlin and River

“Between Alexei Navalny’s death and the second anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is in a transitional moment. The public may be going along with the war, but the country is shrinking its already limited space for expression.” “… [A] deep transition in the economy, … political system, social relations, and public mood is clearly underway. The signs of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Seizing Frozen Russian Assets Over Ukraine War Wins Endorsement of Legal Experts” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

Letter from scholars backing seizure is circulating in G-7 ‘It would be lawful, under international law,’ 10 experts say “A group of legal experts sought to bolster the case for seizing frozen Russian central bank assets, arguing that such actions are allowed under international law given the scale of Russia’s continuing attacks in Ukraine. … The letter … is co-signed […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 9-15, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know Donald Trump’s advisers have discussed getting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin around a negotiating table early in a potential second term, according to a Feb. 14 report by Bloomberg. One adviser to Trump said the promise of severing U.S. military aid could help get Zelenskyy—whom Trump has described as “the greatest […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “China and Russia no longer perceived as top security threats, research finds” – CNBC

Satellite Image of Earth in Style of Mercator Map, adapted from image at nasa.gov

“China and Russia are considered less of a threat to Western populations now than a year ago, according to a new study which points to rising concern around non-traditional risks. Mass migration due to war or climate change and the rise of radical Islam now rank among the top perceived risks among G7 countries. The majority of respondents in Western […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “IMF warns that any action on Russian assets needs ‘sufficient legal support'” – Reuters

International Monetary Fund Logo Over Ukraine Flag

“… IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath … said decisions about what to do with [Russian] assets rested solely with countries holding them. She declined to offer an opinion on how they should be used. Gopinath said the IMF would evaluate the impact of any decisions … but the IMF would not be involved in the decisions. … [S]he […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Asia’s commercial heft helps keep Russia’s war economy going; That holds future lessons for America” – The Economist

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“… [M]ore than three dozen countries … slapped economic sanctions on Russia … unprecedented in … scope for a target of its size, covering energy and other commodities, finance, technology, travel, shipping and more … to raise the cost … of continuing the war [in Ukraine]. … China … has done the most to undermine the West’s sanctions. Trade between […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 26-Feb. 2, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things To Know Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy summoned Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Jan. 29 to tell the general he was being fired. At the meeting, Zaluzhnyi was offered the post of secretary of the national security council, but he turned it down, according to The Economist.[1] Two days […]

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Russia’s Ruthless Renaissance

Kremlin and River

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Julia Khrebtan-Hörhager, Associate Professor, Department of Communication Studies, Colorado State University; Evgeniya Pyatovskaya, PhD candidate, Department of Communication Studies, University of South Florida – Feb. 1, 2024) Two years into the war with Ukraine, today’s Russia can best be understood through the lens of a slogan that once appeared in a Solovki special prison, part […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Volodymyr Zelensky comes up empty-handed in Davos as he faces financial war hell” – New York Post

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Wall Street has shown a keen interest in investing in Ukraine. The banker class … admires the country’s resiliency … [and] appreciates the geopolitical urgency in preventing … Putin from re-establishing the old Soviet Union …. … [T]hey liked Zelensky’s pitch in Davos: … [I]nflation … below 6% [down] from as high as 30%; the economy is growing. He plans […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “EU unlikely to confiscate Russian central bank assets – officials” – Reuters

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“The [EU] [reportedly] is unlikely to confiscate Russian central bank assets frozen in Europe, despite G7 plans to discuss the legality of such a move at a meeting in February …. The EU, United States, Japan and Canada froze some $300 billion of Russian central bank assets in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine … [including roughly] $200 billion … held […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s War Fuels a Wage Spiral That Threatens Army Recruitment” – Bloomberg

File photo of Russian paper currency, adapted from image at csce.house.gov

“Civilian wages outpace military pay for fighting in Ukraine Kremlin has avoided another call-up ahead of March elections” “Russia’s war in Ukraine is intensifying an acute deficit of workers … igniting a race to increase salaries that threatens the Kremlin’s ability to replenish the armed forces. The competition for employees has pushed wages up at a double-digit pace and made […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s $30 Billion Problem: How to Keep Fighting Without Foreign Aid” – WSJ

File Image of Ukrainian Currency, adapted from file at usaid.gov

“Kyiv could delay salaries, return to printing money if funding from U.S. and EU falls through” “Ukraine [reportedly] will run out of money within months and be forced to take painful economic measures to keep the government running if aid from the U.S. or Europe doesn’t come through …. The U.S. and [EU] … have promised Kyiv billions of dollars […]

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Ukraine and West Can’t Count on Collapse of Russia’s Military-Industrial Sector as a Result of Sanctions, Inozemtsev Says

File photo of Russian paper currency, adapted from image at csce.house.gov

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Jan. 16, 2024) Western analysts and politicians cycle between viewing Russia as too strong for anyone to do anything about it to considering it so weak that its key sectors are about to collapse and therefore to argue that no radical steps are necessary to force Moscow to change its positions. That […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 12-19, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 1. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the Jan. 16, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In an article on the war entitled “Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine’s East as Kyiv’s Troops Flag,” NYT noted […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How viable is Arctic shipping? Russia is investing in the region” – The Economist

File Photo of Polar Bear on Snow with Bare Ground in the Background, adapted from image at nasa.gov with photo credit to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/Eric Regehr

“Shipping lanes are under pressure. Seven of the world’s ten biggest shipping companies have suspended transit through the Red Sea, where the Houthis … are attacking commercial vessels [with the result that] …. far fewer ships are using the Suez Canal …. The volume of trade passing through the Panama Canal … has declined by 30% … after severe drought […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Grabbing $300 billion of Russian assets is no panacea, West cautions in Davos” – Reuters

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

“Western officials looking at confiscating Russian assets No decisions yet made – U.S. special representative Belgium: we need to work out a mechanism” “Western officials said in Davos … they were open to … confiscating $300 billion of Russian assets to help Ukraine, but cautioned … the devil was in the legal detail and that, even if it could be […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Domestic Woes Continue as Russian Military Struggles in Ukraine” – Newsweek

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“… Putin … fac[es] a deluge of domestic difficulties as Moscow’s military struggles nearly two years after invading Ukraine. Putin … has been the focus of … increasing … criticism … over issues that include inflation, winter blackouts and the treatment of soldiers in Ukraine. Despite … recent … relentless Russian air and ground attacks against Ukraine, Moscow has seen […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 5-12, 2024

Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 6 Things to Know The Pentagon has failed to properly track at least $1 billion in weapons that the U.S. has provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion, according to a report by the Defense Department’s inspector general, FT  reports. The high rate of weapons that were missing or otherwise immediately unaccounted for in government […]

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Oil Drilling Is Booming in Russia Despite Western Sanctions

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

(oilprice.com – Charles Kennedy – Jan. 10, 2024) Drilling at Russia’s oil production wells likely beat a post-Soviet record in 2023, according to industry data Bloomberg has seen — evidence that the Western sanctions haven’t affected drilling rates much, especially at brownfields. Russia is estimated to have drilled oil production wells with a total depth of 28,100 kilometers (17,460 miles) […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Jan. 2-8, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “The ‘rules-based order’ that President Biden proclaims has become a slogan rather than a fact,” WP’s David Ignatius argues in his preview of how the Russian-Ukrainian war and other conflicts will evolve in 2024. In his latest column, Ignatius blasts Vladimir Putin’s aggression again Ukraine, but also reminds us how there was an “element of truth” in […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine May Have to Accept a Cease-Fire” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“The good news is it would open the door to eventual EU and NATO membership.” “According to a recent report …. [Ukrainian] troops on the front line are running out of ammunition. Artillery shells are being rationed, forcing the Ukrainians to cancel planned assaults and making it hard to hold defensive positions against Russian attacks. … As Ukraine struggles, its […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Seizing Russian reserves is the right thing to do” – Financial Times

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

“Blatant violations of international laws require a response and reparations would be in line with historical precedent.” “… [One] geopolitical flashpoint[] … may be … pressure to seize Russia’s reserves in foreign central banks to fund Ukraine. Western nations … reported[ly] … have been actively exploring the move …. rais[ing] worries about … consequences for the financial system, … that […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine warns of pension and salary delays without western aid” – Financial Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Shortfall in external aid would push a recovering economy back into survival mode, says deputy prime minister.” “Ukraine may have to postpone pay for public servants and pension payments to millions of its citizens if the EU and U.S. fail to deliver promised financial aid early next year … warn[s] [Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister] Yulia Svyrydenko …. [T]he […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia exports almost all its oil to China and India – Novak” – Reuters

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“… Russia has successfully circumvented sanctions on its oil … divert[ing] flows from Europe to China and India, … together account[ing] for around 90% of … crude exports, [according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.] … He said … Europe’s share of Russia’s crude exports has fallen to … about 4-5% from about 40-45%. … [Regarding] … OPEC+ …, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia and U.S. Heading for Major Escalation” – Newsweek/ Isabel van Brugen

Stylized Russian and U.S. Flags, 200, 1807-2007

“Russia and the U.S. could be headed for a major escalation, according to [Sergei Ryabkov, Russian deputy foreign minister responsible for ties with the U.S., arms control and non-proliferation.] … [Ryakkov] said … confiscation of frozen Russian assets could lead to diplomatic relations … being severed. … [R]eports emerged that the Biden administration could be close to seizing more than […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Bureaucracy as the Pillar of Stability: Are There Any Real Institutions Inside the Russian Political Regime?” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Tower and Building Inside Kremlin

“Russia’s ruling mechanism — bureaucratic institutions — may outlast the current personalism. This vast network of civil servants, technocrats, and administrators forms a modestly resilient framework that endures beyond individual political decisions, providing continuity and ensuring the steady day-to-day functioning of the government.” “A persistent question … has been whether Russia has transitioned from … authoritarian … to … totalitarian […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 27-Dec. 4, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Miscalculations and divisions marked the efforts of Kyiv and its allies to plan the Ukrainian military’s summer offensive, according to the results of extensive research by Washington Post staff into the lead-up to the largely unsuccessful operation. “The year began with Western resolve at its peak, Ukrainian forces highly confident and … Zelensky predicting a decisive […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian industrial output growth slows as unemployment drops to record low” – Reuters

Cash, Calculator, Pen

“Russia’s industrial output growth slowed in October as the unemployment rate dropped to a record low 2.9%, [according to] federal statistics … [D]eepening labour shortages show[] signs of cooling Moscow’s military production capacity. Kremlin aide Maxim Oreshkin … sought to portray low unemployment as evidence of … economic prosperity, but … Putin and his economy ministry have acknowledged Russia … […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 20-27, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) There is no “durable stalemate on the ground” in the Russian-Ukrainian war as there is “no clear-cut parity,” CEIP’s Michael Kofman said in a War on the Rocks podcast shortly after returning from Ukraine. Looking back, Kofman advised that “the sooner we can say” Ukraine’s counteroffensive has not been successful, “the sooner we can learn from it.” Looking […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Some EU Nations Push to Weaken Russia Sanctions Enforcement Plan” – Bloomberg

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“EU proposals include ban on re-export to Russia of key goods Proposals include penalties for breaches and fund for Ukraine” “… [EU’s] executive arm has proposed banning importers from reselling so-called high-priority items — like semiconductors used in weapons or needed to make them — to Russia or for use in Russia, and requiring a sum to be deposited in […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia may seek compensation over Nord Stream blasts – RIA” – Reuters

Gas Flame file photo

“[Nord Stream gas] pipelines under the Baltic Sea were damaged in explosions last year, and investigations have yet to establish who was responsible. … RIA quoted Dmitry Birichevsky [of the Russian Foreign Ministry] as saying: ‘… [W]e are waiting for [a related probe’s] results to be presented to the [UN] Security Council, then … will decide what to do.’ …” […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 9-17, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. Congress’ interest in financing Ukraine’s fight against invading Russian forces has “dipped lower than ever,” according to WP. Moreover, rising competition from other national security priorities could “sound the death knell for continued American aid” for Kyiv, this newspaper predicted shortly before Biden signed a bill that is designed to avoid a government shutdown, […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 6-13, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “In the end, Ukraine may face the reality that it needs to negotiate with a Russian foe willing to endlessly sacrifice treasure and lives on the battlefield,” according to WP editors. “That point has not been reached, but the West should give Ukraine the leverage to drive the best possible bargain if the […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Almost No Russian Oil Sold Below G7 Price Cap – FT” – Moscow Times

Oil Wells File Photo

(Moscow Times – Nov. 14, 2023) Russia has managed to almost entirely circumvent a G7 price cap on its oil exports, with Moscow claiming average sales at more than $20 per barrel above the imposed limit, the Financial Times reported Tuesday, citing Western officials and Russian export data. [ft.com/content/09e8ee14-a665-4644-8ec5-5972070463ad] According to an unnamed senior European official who spoke to FT, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s New Elite Emerges to Fill Void After Multinationals Flee” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Meeting Room Table with Microphones and Chairs, adapted from image at cdc.gov

“Foreign firms have sold assets worth over $21 billion Third wave of business elite swoops in to grab bargains” “A new cohort of Russian business elite has emerged to benefit from the void left when international firms suddenly exited following … Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. … snapp[ing] up assets at discounted prices after … multinationals … [left due to] pressure […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s war economy leaves businesses starved of labour” – Financial Times

Cash, Calculator, Pen

“Busy armaments factories are depriving other industries of scarce workers” “Russia’s army and … weapons factories are sucking in a growing number of workers as Moscow braces itself for a long war … leaving civilian sectors with painful labour shortages and destabilising the … economy. … [L]abour shortages have helped expose [economic] weaknesses … contradict[ing] the [Kremlin’s] rosy picture …. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Top Biden Officials Press Congress for More Economic Aid to Ukraine” – WSJ

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

“Even Republicans who support arming Ukraine are skeptical of providing more cash to the country’s government.” “… [Some] top Biden administration officials [have] urged [Congress] to provide $11.8 billion in direct budget support to Kyiv to help pay … day-to-day bills. … part of a roughly $106 billion emergency funding request covering Ukraine, Israel and other issues. … Ukraine’s economy […]

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Russia in Review, Oct. 27-Nov. 3, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

6 Things to Know Commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces Valery Zaluzhny has admitted that his forces’ offensive has reached a stalemate, while the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces and architect of last year’s successful counteroffensive Oleksandr Syrskyi has described the current conditions along the 600-mile frontline as “difficult” and “challenging.” “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Squeezed by Sanctions, Some Oligarchs Are Heading Home to Putin’s Russia” – Bloomberg

Cash, Calculator, Pen

“Putin’s war in Ukraine is leaving billionaires who sought to integrate with the West to face the reality of international isolation.” “… Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed everything for [certain Russian oligarchs] … who prospered under Putin until the U.S. and Europe imposed sweeping sanctions aimed at isolating the Kremlin leader and bringing his economy to its knees. The penalties […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 23-30, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Kremlin stands to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict in three ways, according to Hanna Notte of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. The conflict distracts the West from the war in Ukraine; it hinders normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel; and it helps Russia to style itself as David to the Western […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Investors Are Heading Back to Ukraine” – WSJ

File Image of Ukrainian Currency, adapted from file at usaid.gov

“Money trickles back in, lured by the chance to help the fight against Russia and score assets on the cheap.” “… Steel-nerved investors are trickling back into Ukraine, lured by the chance to help the country in its fight against Russia — and to score assets on the cheap. … Prospects for Ukraine’s economy remain fragile. … Losing long-term backing […]

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