(U.S. State Department – April 2, 2024) INTERVIEW ANTONY J. BLINKEN, SECRETARY OF STATE CHIEF OF MISSION RESIDENCE PARIS, FRANCE QUESTION: Good evening, Mr. Secretary of State. Antony Blinken, you’re head of U.S. foreign policy. First, Ukraine’s cry for help. Is the United States in a position to promise that the Ukrainian state, that Kyiv, will never fall into Russian […]
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“In an unusual move, U.S. officials shared highly specific information about a terrorist plot with an adversary country” “More than two weeks before terrorists staged a bloody attack in the suburbs of Moscow, the U.S. government told Russian officials that Crocus City Hall, a popular concert venue, was a potential target, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter. The […]
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(Moscow Times – April 2, 2024) Russia’s spy chief said Tuesday that U.S. warnings of a possible extremist attack were too broad to have prevented the deadly concert hall attack outside Moscow late last month. “The Federal Security Service [FSB] received some information from the U.S. intelligence services that such a thing was unfortunately possible,” Sergei Naryshkin, who heads Russia’s […]
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“According to high-ranking Ukrainian officers, the military picture is grim and Russian generals could find success wherever they decide to focus their upcoming offensive.” “… Europe … is trying to help Ukraine make up for its colossal disadvantage in artillery shells. … [A] proposed Czech-led bulk artillery ammunition purchase could bring Ukraine’s total from both within and outside the EU […]
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“… Russia has … greater manpower … and the ability to recruit more fighters through lucrative contracts …. Russian firepower is reportedly ten times greater in aggregate than Ukraine’s and about seven-fold just for artillery and mortars. … U.S. congressional failure to approve [more] support … has led to an increased loss of Ukrainian lives and territory on the front […]
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“A just-published investigation … has unearthed startling new information about … Havana syndrome, or ‘Anomalous Health Incidents’ … unexplained bouts of painful disorientation [impacting] U.S. diplomats and intelligence officers …. The new information suggests but does not prove that Russia’s military intelligence agency is responsible. Earlier, agencies in the U.S. intelligence community had concluded … ‘it is very unlikely a […]
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(Moscow Times – Michele A. Berdy – March 29, 2024) Последнее слово: last word I began to write The Word’s Worth in April 2002, the third writer (I think) to take up what was envisioned as a language column for expats. Since then I’ve written more than a thousand columns, touching on just about every aspect of language use and […]
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“… If there’s one mistake the West made in its relationship with Russia, it was not paying enough attention to or taking seriously the rhetoric coming from the Kremlin and Russia’s political-military elites. Putin’s anti-Western, paranoid and virulent speech in Munich in 2007 was not out of character. Russia’s beliefs and ideas have never really changed since 1991. An analysis […]
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“Moscow has found better ways to conceal influence operations that spread arguments for isolationism, officials and experts say.” “Russia has intensified … online efforts to derail military funding for Ukraine in the United States and Europe, largely by using harder-to-trace technologies to amplify arguments for isolationism ahead of the U.S. elections, according to disinformation experts and intelligence assessments. … [I]ntelligence […]
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(The Whitehouse – whitehouse.gov – March 28, 2024) … MR. KIRBY: First, I want to just take a moment to respond to the – both the nonsense and the propaganda that we’ve been seeing coming from the Kremlin and the Russian government over the past few days about the ISIS terrorist attack on the concert hall, which sadly took the […]
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“… We asked about proposals … by some in the West who say the United States should press for a negotiation to ‘save’ Ukraine by ceding parts of the country to Russia in exchange for peace. Few Ukrainians expressed interest … point[ing] to … war crimes Ukrainians have suffered under Russian occupation … ask[ing] how they could abandon anyone to […]
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“‘Sometimes the Ukrainian government may resist the kind of freedom of information that’s normal for us,’ said the State Department’s James Rubin.” “A senior U.S. diplomat responsible for countering disinformation says … Zelenskyy should be more open to disclosing information about the state of the war in Ukraine. The advice comes as fighting intensifies amid Russian gains in key areas […]
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“Campaign is part of push to divert attention from security failures, analysts say” “Reeling from an apparent security lapse that allowed … heavily-armed men to massacre dozens of concertgoers in Moscow … Russia has gone into overdrive advancing a narrative that pins the blame on a usual suspect: Ukraine. Western officials have said Islamic State is responsible for the March […]
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“… Without new U.S. military assistance, Ukrainian ground forces may not be able to hold the line against a relentless Russian military. … The most urgent priority is to appropriate funds to resupply Kyiv with artillery shells, air defense missiles, deep-strike rockets, and other critical military needs. But even once Ukraine receives this much-needed support, a fundamental question remains: how […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore The March 22 terrorist attack on a concert hall outside Moscow, in which more than 130 people were killed and for which ISIS claimed responsibility, is a “reminder of the fatal results of mutual distrust in the US-Russian relations,” Anatol Lieven writes in reference to the fact that the U.S. did warn Russia on March […]
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“… [T]he glaring failure of Putin’s security state to prevent the gruesome assault — despite the U.S. warning of March 7 that a strike on a concert hall could be imminent — may endanger the Russian government’s social contract with its people. The attack, which underscored the country’s continuing vulnerability to terrorist acts, came just days after Putin’s victory in […]
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“The Kremlin autocrat once wanted to align with the U.S. in fighting terrorism but is trapped in lies and paranoia” “… Today, Russia’s discourse seems intended to justify inaction, rather than action. Putin’s vaunted security apparatus, obsessed with pursuing proclaimed enemies of the state, proved unable to prevent Russia’s deadliest terrorist attack in 20 years. … Russia’s current framing of […]
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“… Top officials including Gen. Mark A. Milley, then chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of Ukrainian ground forces, attended several of the simulations and were briefed on the results. During one visit to Wiesbaden, Milley spoke with Ukrainian special operations troops — who were working with American Green Berets — in […]
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“Washington told Kyiv that drone attacks risk driving up crude prices and provoking retaliation” “… The repeated warnings from Washington [reportedly] were delivered to senior officials at Ukraine’s state security service, the SBU, and its military intelligence directorate, known as the GUR …. Both intelligence units have steadily expanded their own drone programmes to strike Russian targets on land, sea […]
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“With U.S. commitment to NATO uncertain, Europe faces a security rebuild that threatens budgets for other programs” “European countries are waking up to Russia’s danger … [T]he cost of building robust defenses able to withstand a potential U.S. pullback … threatens Europe’s post-Cold War social model. With … Trump questioning America’s future in [NATO] and Russian forces on the offensive […]
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“Two authoritarian U.S. adversaries, Russia and China … carry[] out what some … call[] a ‘hidden war on democracy,’ attempting to shape global opinion using deception and false narratives. … Russia [reportedly] spends about $1.5 billion a year and China $7 billion or more annually to influence overseas audiences. … The Global Engagement Center (GEC), headquartered at the State Department, […]
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U.S. Department of State March 19, 2024 On Russia’s Presidential Elections PRESS STATEMENT ANTONY J. BLINKEN, SECRETARY OF STATE Russia’s recent presidential election occurred in an environment of intense repression of independent voices and the imprisonment, death, or exile of virtually all genuine political opposition. The Kremlin has systematically marginalized groups advocating for democratic processes and rule of law, including […]
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“Both countries less likely to be named than last year, while mentions of Iran swell” “Forty-one percent of Americans name China as the United States’ greatest enemy today … the top perceived U.S. adversary for the fourth straight year. Russia ranks second, cited by 26%, followed by Iran at 9%. Five percent of national adults now name the United States […]
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“A host of Western countries reject the results of Russia’s sham election” “… Long before the first ballot was cast, it was clear … Putin, … dictator since 1999, would win by a predetermined, overwhelming majority. … Voting … was strictly supervised. In illegally occupied parts of Ukraine, voters cast their ballots at gunpoint. [] Putin faced no credible opponents: […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – March 15, 2024) Russia’s presidential election, whose outcome is near certain to grant Vladimir Putin a fifth term, got underway on March 15. Given the inevitability of Putin’s victory in what one Kremlin-connected insider has described as a “well-designed simulation,” one might wonder what impact the Russian election has on the U.S. […]
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“Russia hopes its stock market will benefit from a scheme … where Russians who own frozen foreign securities will be able to apply to sell them to foreigners with frozen assets in Russia …. Moscow presents the plan as a way for … Russian and foreign investors to free up assets … blocked by Western sanctions and Russian counter-measures …. […]
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“Raising specter of nuclear confrontation allows Russian leader to keep his population on edge and convinced of need for militarism, analysts say.” “… Putin warned publicly … of the possibility of nuclear confrontation with the West, a saber … [Putin was] rattling with increasing frequency ahead of presidential elections this weekend. The comments — part of an interview with a […]
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(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Mar. 11, 2024) Many of the mistakes Western elites have made about Russia and that Moscow elites have made about their own county arise from misconceptions each has about Russia’s future, Vladimir Pastukhov says. The West has mistakenly assumed Russia is in terminal decline while Moscow elites think they can restore the […]
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(Moscow Times – March 14, 2024) [Complete list: mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1938555/] Russia has banned entry to 227 U.S. citizens, the Foreign Ministry in Moscow announced Thursday. The Foreign Ministry accused the banned individuals of playing a role in steering Washington’s “Russophobic policies” and being directly involved in “anti-Russian actions.” The latest additions to Russia’s “stop list” include State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, […]
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“What survives of the mainstream press prides itself on delivering the anti-Trump message. … Anti-Trumpism is the gift that briefly arrested their decline, though the holiday may be running out for the Washington Post. … The media … can no longer be trusted to give a skeptical, realistic account of what [Trump] might do as president, preferring to put words […]
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Senate Select Committee on Intelligence March 11, 2024 Director Avril D. Haines Office of the Director of National Intelligence 2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community [Excerpt] [PDF: intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/hearings/unclassified_2024_ata_report_0.pdf] RUSSIA Regional and Global Activities Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has resulted in enormous damage at home and abroad, but Russia remains a resilient and capable adversary across […]
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“For a few weeks in October 2022, the White House was consumed in a crisis whose depths were not publicly acknowledged at the time. It was a glimpse of what seemed like a terrifying new era.” “… [I]ntercepts revealed that for the first time since the war in Ukraine had broken out, there were frequent conversations within the Russian military […]
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“Kyiv in talks with Japan and Canada for extra aid as Zelenskyy government considers spending cuts and tax hikes” “… [D]eadlock in … Congress over a $60bn aid package for Ukraine has left Kyiv desperately looking for alternative donors …. Ukraine has allocated nearly half of its $87bn budget … to defence-related expenditure, but its domestic revenues are just $46bn, […]
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“What the Allied intervention in the Russian civil war teaches us about Ukraine today.” “… Despite the current pall of pessimism pervading Western capitals, today’s war in Ukraine presents some of the more propitious circumstances a policymaker could hope for …. Ukraine is a worthy and competent ally, fighting to defend its territory with a highly motivated population …. The […]
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“Ukrainian officials are disheartened about stalled aid. The Pentagon wants Kyiv to heed its advice on how to fight.” “… For the Pentagon, the exasperation comes down to a single, recurring issue: American military strategists … believe that Ukraine needs to concentrate its forces on one big fight at a time. Instead, … Zelensky, who has vowed to drive Russia […]
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“… [C]containment should prioritize defending Russia’s threatened neighbors, especially those that do not have a clear and immediate path to NATO membership. Apart from Ukraine, Russia’s most vulnerable neighbors include [non-NATO] Armenia, Georgia, and Moldova …. The United States should offer … training and weapons … [and] bolster [their] resilience against Russian gray-zone threats, ranging from cyberattacks to election meddling. […]
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“Russia’s advantage on the battlefield could prompt Ukraine’s backers to give it more of what it wants, and needs, to win the war. Defense analysts call this irony of conflict the ‘escalation paradox.’ French President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial comments on the possibility of NATO ground troops in Ukraine demonstrated this paradox.” “… With Ukraine now on the back foot, analysts […]
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“Even as he promises … that Ukraine will handle the fighting if given needed weapons and other support, … Zelensky and … top military commanders have failed … to come up with a clear plan to conscript or recruit many thousands of new soldiers … to defend against Russia’s continuing attacks. Zelensky’s inability to forge a political consensus on … […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “Russia’s ability to absorb military losses, its deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure and the limitations of its conventionally armed land-attack missile arsenal provides” at least two “potential insights into Russia’s theatre nuclear doctrine,” according to William Alberque of IISS. “Firstly, given Russia’s indifference to civilian casualties in Ukraine, it stands to reason that […]
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“Allies must provide Kyiv with what it needs to win the war and secure the peace: arms supplies and a path to NATO membership.” “… [T]he West … need[s] … a clearer strategy for achieving victory and stopping … Putin from overturning the rules-based international order. … [H]esitation and incrementalism in providing Ukraine with the military capabilities … it needs […]
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“Putin’s state of the nation address should have been a mere pre-election formality, but it left an extremely chilling impression of an unraveling spiral of escalation.” “… The horizons of this ‘holy war’ have now expanded. If a year ago, Putin focused on protecting ‘our land’ and relied on defensive and even sacrificial rhetoric, this year he sounded victorious, speaking […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Vladimir Putin used his annual address to the Russian parliament to not only rattle his nuclear saber at the West again, but also to accuse his Western counterparts of “spooking the world” with the threat of a nuclear war, all while claiming to be ready for talks on nuclear arms control. “We remember what […]
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“Russia’s economy remains resilient against Western sanctions. Economist Elina Ribakova wrote about the limitations of trying to isolate a globally integrated economy like Russia. The West’s experience sanctioning Russia could help in crafting potential future trade restrictions against China.” “Despite sweeping … sanctions over … Ukraine, Russia posted … GDP growth of 3.6% in 2023 after contracting 1.2% in 2022. […]
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“Doctrine for tactical nuclear weapons outlined in training scenarios for an invasion by China” “… Putin’s forces have rehearsed using tactical nuclear weapons at an early stage of conflict with a major world power, according to leaked Russian military files that include training scenarios for an invasion by China. The [29 secret Russian military files from 2008 to 2014] … […]
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“… [A]fter Ukraine’s retreat from [Avdiivka] … partly blamed on ammunition shortages … Moscow’s advances … have been incremental and are unlikely to be rapid in the short-term but hold-ups in Western aid for Kyiv threaten to hand … Putin the initiative. … Russian forces [reportedly] are exploiting tactical opportunities opened up by Avdiivka’s seizure … trying to push as […]
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“For more than a decade, the United States has nurtured a secret intelligence partnership with Ukraine that is now critical for both countries in countering Russia.” “… [T]he intelligence partnership between Washington and Kyiv is a linchpin of Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. The C.I.A. and other … [U.S.] agencies provide intelligence for targeted missile strikes, track Russian troop movements […]
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“The service for the Russian opposition leader will be open to the public, but it was unclear whether the authorities will try to stop people from attending.” “… The planned service, at a church on Moscow’s outskirts, sets up the possibility of a rare display of opposition sentiment in the Russian capital … [] Navalny’s spokeswoman, Kira Yarmysh, advised anyone […]
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“Adaptation of Mikhail Bulgakov’s anti-totalitarian Soviet novel wins rave reviews but pro-Russia activists want Michael Lockshin probed” “A new film adaptation of Mikhail Bulgakov’s anti-totalitarian Soviet novel Master and Margarita is winning rave reviews in Russia but irritating the Kremlin and its supporters. Colleagues of Michael Lockshin, the American-Russian director of the Russian-language film, have … accused Kremlin trolls of […]
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“Attendees of the Munich Security Conference were worried about Ukraine’s prospects against Russia and American commitment to Kyiv.” “… Ukraine is low on ammunition and infantry. …. Before … Zelenskyy changed leadership at the top of his country’s military, generals insisted the president had to mobilize 500,000 more troops to keep pace with a larger, still-stronger Russian force that appears […]
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“… My sense, based on recent conversations with Western military, defence and intelligence officials, is that a collapse of Ukrainian lines is unlikely. … Many of the sharpest observers of the war are concerned. … It would be unfair, however, to focus on Russian advances without mentioning a spectacular Ukrainian success. On February 23rd Ukraine said it had downed a […]
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