JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Sees Russia Reducing Goals in Ukraine, Deepening China Ties” – Bloomberg

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

“China’s intent cited in annual assessment of worldwide threats ‘Growing pessimism’ in Beijing is cited by intelligence chief” “Russia is likely to downgrade its ambitions in Ukraine for the time being to hanging onto territory seized after the start of its invasion, even as it enjoys deepening economic and defense support from China, U.S. intelligence chiefs told a Senate committee. […]

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Excerpt from the “Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community”

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

[click here for PDF of entire Annual Threat Assessment, declassified version] [excerpt on Russia follows]   Russia REGIONAL AND GLOBAL OBJECTIVES AND ACTIVITIES Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine is a tectonic event that is reshaping Russia’s relationships with the West and China, and more broadly in ways that are unfolding and remain highly uncertain. Escalation of the conflict […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Feb. 27-March 6, 2023 – 4 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) U.S. public’s support for aiding Ukraine is decreasing as Americans’ war weariness increases with time, according to veteran journalist Peter Baker’s news analysis in NYT. Overall, support has fallen from 60% last May to 48% now, according to AP/NORC surveys. The decline is more pronounced among Republican respondents, which shows in statements  by GOP presidential contenders. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Inside China’s Peace Plan for Ukraine” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“… China has … releas[ed] a twelve-point document proposing a … political settlement [for the conflict in Ukraine, with] … familiar Chinese talking points …. It repeats Beijing’s support for the UN Charter and the territorial integrity of states, … condemns unilateral sanctions, and criticizes the expansion of U.S.-led military alliances. Those who expected a roadmap to peace … will […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia will be out of ‘military tools’ by spring, Ukraine’s top military spy says” – USA Today

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov’s forecast comes amid considerable uncertainty about what the next phase of the war will look like …. For weeks, Ukrainian officials had signaled that Russia was planning a major new offensive …. [which] has yet to materialize. ‘Russia has wasted huge amounts of human resources, armaments and materials. Its economy and production are not able […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 17-24, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) China’s “peace plan” for Ukraine, vague on how peace can be attained, sends clear signals that Beijing’s support for Moscow is neither univocal nor limitless. The very first of the plan’s 12 points declares, in a clear acknowledgement of the Ukrainian state’s fundamental rights, that the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “For many outside the west, Russia is not important enough to hate; Indifference to Putin’s aggression in Ukraine has left western analysts flummoxed” – Financial Times

Satellite

“… A new study, United West, Divided by the Rest, reveals that the war and Russian military setbacks have not forced people in many non-western countries to downgrade their opinion of Russia or to question its relative strength. Russia is seen … as an ‘ally’ or … ‘partner’ by 79 per cent of people in China (unsurprisingly). … [T]he same […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 3-10, 2023 – 6 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Warnings by Ukrainian officials of a coming Russian offensive have multiplied in the past few days. A Ukraine military intelligence official has told the Kyiv Post that the Russian attack is expected to come around Feb. 24, while an adviser to the Ukrainian military told FT that the offensive could come within 10 days. Better trained and equipped […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Energy Clout Is Waning, Weakening Its Global Influence” – WSJ

Gas Flame file photo

“The rebalancing is stoking Moscow’s fear of becoming a junior partner to Beijing.” “… Putin‘s use of energy as a weapon of financial war is increasingly backfiring, threatening the core of Russia’s beleaguered economy and curtailing its geopolitical influence. Western sanctions, falling prices for Russian fossil fuels and strategic miscalculations are hurting the country’s oil-and-gas industry while the war in […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Beijing Fears Russia Becoming ‘Minor Power’ Under ‘Crazy’ Putin – FT” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

(Moscow Times – Jan. 11, 2023) Beijing is planning to reorient its foreign policy away from Moscow fearing a decline in Russia’s economic and political clout as a direct result of its disastrous invasion of Ukraine and Putin’s eventual downfall, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday, citing anonymous Chinese officials and regional experts. [ft.com/content/e592033b-9e34-4e3d-ae53-17fa34c16009] Though Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader […]

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7 Ideas to Explore – Russia Analytical Report, Dec. 12-19, 2022

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Dec. 19, 2022) The time has come to build “a new structure toward achieving peace through negotiation,” according to Kissinger. “The goal of a peace process [for Ukraine] would be twofold: to confirm the freedom of Ukraine and to define a new international structure” in which “Russia should find a place,” Kissinger writes in The […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 28-Dec. 5, 2022: 4 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Dec. 5, 2022) While rightly helping Ukraine to defend itself, the Pentagon and weapons contractors should not be allowed to exploit the crisis to expand the U.S. arms industry “in ways that go far beyond what is needed to help Ukraine in its current conflict,” according to William Hartung of the Quincy Institute for Responsible […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 21-28, 2022: 6 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Nov. 28, 2022) Key U.S. officials have begun to wonder whether “the U.S. has already reaped all the advantages the Ukraine war has to offer,” according to Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins University. “As time passes, the cost may get higher [for the U.S.]—in distraction from other regions, in scarce munitions consumed, in vulnerability to […]

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JRL NEWSLINK: “5 Ideas to Explore: Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 24-31, 2022” – Russia Matters

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

1. Washington should convey to Moscow that the U.S. doesn’t seek Russia’s destruction and wants to avoid direct military conflict, according to David Ignatius. Furthermore, the U.S. should resume discussion of Putin’s 2021 calls for security assurances from NATO as the time has come “for urgent talks about how to keep this terrible war from becoming something vastly worse,” Ignatius […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How Cold War II Could Turn Into World War III” – Bloomberg

“History shows that nothing causes fiscal and monetary instability quite like multiple big, long conflicts.” “… Large-scale war is simultaneously destructive of productive capacity, disruptive of trade, and destabilizing of fiscal and monetary policies. … Economists tend to treat wars as ‘exogenous shocks,’ generally omitting them from their models. From the historian’s standpoint, however, war is not exogenous, but the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Is the World’s Foreign-Policy Rorschach Test” – Foreign Policy

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“There are two basic ways to think about the war — and the world.” “… [K]ey decision-makers on both sides view the war as an all-or-nothing struggle with far-reaching global implications — worsening the risk of dangerous escalation the longer it lasts. … [W]hat happens in Ukraine is important but not likely to determine the fate of the planet. … […]

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Why the West is Losing the Global Information War Over Ukraine and How It Can Be Fixed

Satellite Image of Earth in Style of Mercator Map, adapted from image at nasa.gov

(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo – Peter Rutland – Oct. 17, 2022) Peter Rutland is Professor of Government at Wesleyan University. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a blatant violation of international law and strikes at the core principles of the UN. This has been widely accepted by political elites and the public at large in the United States and across Europe. […]

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Still ‘No Limits’? The China-Russia Partnership After Samarkand

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Elizabeth Wishnick – Sept. 22, 2022) Elizabeth Wishnick is a senior research scientist at CNA and a professor of political science at Montclair State University.This month’s meeting between the Chinese and Russian presidents on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan has led to renewed scrutiny of the scope and depth of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: Russia’s Sergey Lavrov Warns U.S. It Risks Becoming Combatant in Ukraine War” – Newsweek

Sergei Lavrov file photo

“… Lavrov said Russia’s approach would include supporting the recently announced referendums in contested parts of Ukraine, such as the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics …. In order to counter Western pressure, Russia has fostered closer ties with other powers, especially China, nurturing a growing bilateral relationship Lavrov called a priority for Moscow, as both nations seek to promote […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Steps Up Enforcement of Its Long List of Russia Sanctions” – WSJ

Portion of U.S. Treasury Department Building Facade, North Side, with Sculpture of Alexander Hamilton

“Biden administration pushes to close loopholes and lobbies countries like China and India to curb trade with Russia.” “The U.S. has imposed … powerful sanctions against Russia[] … to punish it for the invasion of Ukraine. Now, U.S. officials are pushing to ensure they are effective, closing loopholes, lobbying other nations for support, and cracking down on people abetting Russia’s […]

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China’s Long Game in Russia: Violating Sanctions? No. Ensuring Russia’s Survival? Yes.

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Lizzi C. Lee – June 30, 2022) Lizzi C. Lee is an economist-turned-journalist now working with Wall St TV, an independent, New York-based Chinese-language media outlet. She is the host of the ChinaEDGE Live show by SupChina. As some of the most extensive sanctions in modern history put enormous economic strain on Russia, China—Russia’s largest trading […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “G-7 Summit Exposes West’s Challenges in Tackling Russia; Economic fallout is hampering further sanctions against Moscow as Ukraine demands more weapons to halt the Russian advance” – WSJ

File Photo of G7 Meeting, with Persons at Round Table and Long Table, with Flags and Windows Overlooking Green Space in Background

“[G7] rich democracies … agree[d] to discuss … new sanctions against Russia …. While weapons deliveries have made an immediate difference on the battlefield and Ukraine has been clamoring for more equipment to repel Moscow’s forces, sanctions have proven slow to take effect, some of them have backfired … and new ones have … been too complex to deploy quickly. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “China and Russia’s military relationship likely to deepen with Ukraine war” – Washington Post

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“… Regardless of whether China becomes directly involved in … Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the conflict is shaping up to be an important milestone …. Just as Western sanctions [over Crimea] gave Russia’s military industrial complex new impetus to sell technology to the People’s Liberation Army, the Kremlin’s reliance on China after its Ukraine invasion could accelerate nascent joint technology […]

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Non-Aggressors With Benefits: Russia-China Alignment Won’t Be Game-Changed by Ukraine or Much Else

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Paul Saunders – Feb. 3, 2022) Paul Saunders is president of the Energy Innovation Reform Project and a senior fellow at the Center for the National Interest. With U.S.-Russian confrontation over Ukraine at high pitch, and a summit between the Russian and Chinese leaders looming this weekend at the Beijing Olympics, many wonder how China […]

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RUSSIALINK: “For Russia and China, Beijing Olympics Are About More Than Sporting Glory” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Felix Light – Feb. 4, 2022) As the Winter Olympics get underway in Beijing, Russia has assumed a pivotal role in an event billed as a display of China’s might on the world stage. With much of the international community shunning the Games on human rights grounds, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s presence at the opening […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Thinks America Is Bluffing” – Foreign Affairs

Portion of U.S. Treasury Department Building Facade, North Side, with Sculpture of Alexander Hamilton

To Deter a Ukraine Invasion, Washington’s Threats Need to Be Tougher […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “China and Russia team up to establish joint moon base” – Asia Times

File Photo of Surface of Moon with Earth in Distance, adapted from NASA image

China and Russia’s plans can be seen as a response to their exclusion from the U.S. Artemis Accords […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Foreign Policy Experts Map Russia’s Plans for 2022” – Moscow Times

Satellite

The Moscow Times asked 10 commentators for their predictions for the coming year […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Hope for Iran Nuclear Talks Now Rests on China, Russia” – WSJ

Iran Map and Flag

“Beijing has greater economic clout and more aggressive foreign policy than during original talks for 2015 deal.” “… Even as U.S. tensions mount with Russia … and … China … Western officials acknowledge that the fastest route to increasing economic and political pressure on Tehran’s new hard-line government runs through Moscow and especially Beijing. China helped Iran stabilize its economy […]

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China’s Arctic Ambitions Could Make or Break U.S.-Russian Relations in the Region

File Photo of Arctic Fox Running Across Snow, adapted from image at USGS.gov, with photo credit to Mike Lockart and USGS

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Ingrid Burke Friedman – Dec. 1, 2021) Ingrid Burke Friedman is a fellow at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and Features Editor at JURIST Legal News & Commentary. She previously served as a consular officer with the U.S. State Department. While U.S.-Russian relations continue to deteriorate in many spheres, the Arctic […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia, China sign roadmap for closer military cooperation” – AP

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Russia’s defense chief [Sergei Shoigu] … signed a roadmap for closer military ties with China …. Russia has sought to expand ties with China as … relations with the U.S. and its allies sank to post-Cold War lows over … [Russia’s] annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea[], accusations of Russian hacking attacks, interference in elections and other disputes. … Russia and China […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Glasgow Deals Prompt Russia Rethink on Coal Plans, Carbon Tax” – Bloomberg/ Evgenia Pismennaya, Yuliya Fedorinova

Graphics Depicting Carbon Compounds and Water Molecules, adapted from image at nasa.gov

“Russia will look to cut its ambitious goals for boosting coal production … and consider imposing a carbon tax or other regulation in the wake of … the COP26 summit … according to two officials familiar with the plans. But Russia won’t join the global agreement to reduce methane emissions, [they] said, speaking on condition of anonymity …. [Russia] is […]

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The Collapse of the Afghan Government Provides a Challenge for China and Russia, Not a Windfall

Afghanistan Map of Ethnicities

(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo – Elizabeth Wishnick – Nov. 1, 2021) Elizabeth Wishnick is Professor of Political Science at Montclair State University. The collapse of the Afghan government and takeover by the Taliban is not a net win for China and Russia, nor will these developments automatically cement their partnership. Today, Chinese and Russian officials see the swift collapse of […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Western Coronavirus Vaccines May Be Coming to Russia – Kommersant” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Blue-Gloved Hand Holding Syringe and Injecting Arm, adapted from image at nih.gov

The move to relax import rules could potentially allow Russians to have Western coronavirus jabs … as well as Chinese vaccines […]

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Iran Cements Alliance With China, Russia In Clear Message To Washington

Iran Map and Flag

The seismic, multi-generational Iran-China deal is set for full roll-out. Full membership of the economic, military and political, SCO alliance will lead to major strategic investments in Iran’s up-and-downstream sectors […]

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View From The Ground: Russia’s Ulyanovsk Region Highlights Limits Of China-Russia Ties

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

From big gas projects to closer military cooperation and improved bilateral trade that reached a record of more than $110 billion in 2019, the China-Russia relationship has reached new heights [. ..]

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Russian Attitudes Toward West Improve Despite Feelings of Isolation

Mercator Projection Satellite Image of Earth

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Aleksandra Srdanovic – Sept. 21, 2021) Aleksandra Srdanovic is a graduate student at Harvard University and a student associate with Russia Matters. The Levada Center recently polled Russians on their attitudes toward Russia’s general standing in the international community, as well as their attitudes toward strategic competitors and countries within the post-Soviet neighborhood. Polling shows […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov: Clear U.S. objective is to ensure that China is part of arms control discussions” – Interfax

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

(Interfax – Aug. 17, 2021) Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has given an interview to Interfax following the first round of strategic security consultations between Russia and the United States in Geneva on July 28. He speaks about the continuity of the Biden administration as regards engaging China in arms control negotiations, the prospects of overcoming differences with the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Economic Reality Is Dragging Russia Toward Climate Acceptance” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Polar Bear on Snow with Bare Ground in the Background, adapted from image at nasa.gov with photo credit to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/Eric Regehr

“Europe’s border tax and China’s carbon-neutral ambitions might just force a fossil fuel giant to face climate facts.” “… Sooner than expected, Putin’s hydrocarbon-dependent regime has found itself watching key markets slip away as China targets net-zero emissions and Europe introduces measures including a levy on heavy industry imports that fail to meet its climate protection standards. Having lauded the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Military Seeks to Outmuscle U.S. in Arctic” – Wall Street Journal

File Photo of Polar Bear on Snow with Bare Ground in the Background, adapted from image at nasa.gov with photo credit to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/Eric Regehr

“For Moscow it is the last geopolitical battleground where it holds the advantage over Washington and Beijing” “… [N]ew and refurbished bases [are] meant to service the Kremlin’s ambitions in the resource-rich Arctic. … combined to form a new military district … under … the Northern Fleet, Russia’s foremost Arctic naval force[] … [with fleet] headquarters … on the Kola […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “China’s top diplomat heads to Russia as ties reach ‘best level in history’” – Financial Times

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Beijing and Moscow sense an opportunity in the face of fading U.S. influence and Covid fallout.” “China’s leading diplomat [Yang Jiechi, head of China’s central committee for foreign affairs,] will travel to Russia … for security talks, the latest sign of deepening [Sino-Russian] ties …. Xi Jinping and … Putin … [recently had a] video-link launch of a nuclear energy […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Arctic rivalry heats up among the great powers” – Financial Times

File Photo of Polar Bear on Snow with Bare Ground in the Background, adapted from image at nasa.gov with photo credit to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/Eric Regehr

“Friction in other parts of the globe as well as climate change are fueling tensions in the high north.” “… [N]ew or updated [arctic] strategies … have appeared … from Canada, China, the EU, France, Germany, Norway, Poland, Russia, Sweden and the UK[,] [as well as] the U.S. Air Force, Army, Coast Guard, Department of Defense, Department for Homeland Security, […]

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