JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Ukraine Needs from NATO: Advanced Weapons — and Clarity on What Membership Will Require” – Foreign Affairs: Ivo Daalder, Karen Donfried

NATO Meeting File Photo

“… Without new U.S. military assistance, Ukrainian ground forces may not be able to hold the line against a relentless Russian military. … The most urgent priority is to appropriate funds to resupply Kyiv with artillery shells, air defense missiles, deep-strike rockets, and other critical military needs. But even once Ukraine receives this much-needed support, a fundamental question remains: how […]

» Read more

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Europe is at last adjusting to the new reality in Ukraine” – Financial Times

Europe Map

“… This was going to be a long war that Russia would do everything to win, and the west was not ready. This reality has now been sinking in, exposing new tensions among western leaders about how to confront it. … Hampered by an excruciating shortage of ammunition and artillery that its allies were too slow to provide, Ukraine’s troops […]

» Read more

Russia in Review, Nov. 21-Dec. 1, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) In the past month, Russian forces have gained 12 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces gained 5 square miles, according to the Nov. 28 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Developments on and off the battlefield have prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week to admit that Ukraine’s counteroffensive did not produce the desired results, warning of […]

» Read more

Russia in Review, Sept. 1-8, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

7 Things to Know G-20 leaders began arriving in New Delhi on Sept. 8 for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine in the group’s joint statement. While it remains unclear whether a final consensus can be reached, China appears to have dropped its initial opposition to language on Ukraine and Russia, according […]

» Read more

Russia in Review, June 30-July 7, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. has included cluster munitions in its latest $800 million package of military aid to Ukraine. More than 100 countries have signed onto the Convention on Cluster Munitions, vowing to never use them, but the U.S. is not one of them. A significant percentage of the submunitions often fail to detonate, effectively turning them into […]

» Read more

Ukrainians Attempting To Enter Russia Face Days-Long Wait On Border

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

(Article text Copyright © 2023 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036. – rferl.org – Yulia Paramonova – June 27, 2023 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/ukrainians-stranded-eu-russia-border/32478057.html) In the neutral territory between Estonian and Russian checkpoints, at Luhamaa on June 21, dozens of Ukrainian passport holders […]

» Read more

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Latvia battles to curb Russian media influence” – DW

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

“Latvia is fighting to counter the spread of Moscow’s disinformation. Given its large Russian-speaking community, this is a tough task.” “… Latvia gained its long-awaited independence in the 1990s … then became a member of the [EU] and NATO. But … the country’s Soviet past still has a potent impact …. Even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine … Latvian […]

» Read more

Russia Analytical Report, Feb. 27-March 6, 2023 – 4 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) U.S. public’s support for aiding Ukraine is decreasing as Americans’ war weariness increases with time, according to veteran journalist Peter Baker’s news analysis in NYT. Overall, support has fallen from 60% last May to 48% now, according to AP/NORC surveys. The decline is more pronounced among Republican respondents, which shows in statements  by GOP presidential contenders. […]

» Read more

JRL NEWSWATCH: “No Russian and no Russians: Ukraine invasion has supercharged Latvian nationalism” – Vancouver Sun

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

“Back to the U.S.S.R.: Paule Robitaille writes that Soviet Union symbols used to be tolerated, now they’re reminders of Putin’s aggression.” “… [A]lmost everyone in Latvia feels … hyperaware of the fragility of their way of life. In Riga, the war feels very close and immediate. The Russian and Belarusian borders are only a few hours away by car. Despite […]

» Read more

JRL NEWSWATCH: “It’s High Time to Prepare for Russia’s Collapse; Not planning for the possibility of disintegration betrays a dangerous lack of imagination.” – Foreign Policy/ Alexander J. Motyl

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“Ever since Russia’s attempt to take Kyiv and install a puppet government failed in the early days of the war, a defeat for the Kremlin in Ukraine has looked increasingly likely. What’s stunning … is the near-total absence of any discussion among politicians, policymakers, analysts, and journalists of the consequences of defeat for Russia. … considering the potential for Russia’s […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Latvia Revokes Exiled Russian Station’s License Over War Coverage Violations” – Moscow Times

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

(Moscow Times – Dec. 6, 2022) Latvia said Tuesday that it is revoking the independent Russian television channel Dozhd’s broadcasting license, citing “threats to national security and social order” following a series of violations related to the channel’s coverage of the war in Ukraine. “Dozhd TV will disappear from the airwaves on Thursday, Dec. 8,” tweeted Ivars Abolins, chairman of […]

» Read more

JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. officials think Ukraine could negotiate with Russia. Some Europeans aren’t so sure.” – NBC

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“‘There is clearly alarm among central Europeans that this is the beginning of a process that will force Ukraine to accept a deal,’ one analyst said.” “A split appeared to be opening this week among Ukraine’s supporters …. Some U.S. political and military officials have questioned whether the war could ever be concluded through force, with diplomatic talks the inevitable […]

» Read more

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Seizing Russian Assets to Help Ukraine Sets Off White House Debate” – New York Times

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“The cost to rebuild Ukraine is expected to be significant. … Zelensky, estimated [in May] that it could be $600 billion after months of artillery, missile and tank attacks — meaning that even if all of Russia’s central bank assets abroad were seized, they would cover only half …. [F]inance ministers from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia urged the [EU] […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Baltic States Authorized to Rush U.S.-Made Weapons to Ukraine” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Soldier Firing Javelin Shoulder-Mounted Anti-Tank Missile

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jan. 20, 2022) The United States has given the green light for Baltic nations to rush U.S.-made weapons to Ukraine, with Lithuania on Thursday saying it hoped to deter “aggressor” Russia. A State Department official in Berlin, where Secretary of State Antony Blinken is holding crisis talks on Ukraine, said Washington was “expediting authorized transfers […]

» Read more

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia and NATO: How to talk to Mr. Putin; Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine has created a chance to enhance the security of Europe” – The Economist

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Perhaps [Putin] wants Ukraine to fail because, were it to become a thriving democracy, it would … rebuke … his claim that Western values are unworkable in Orthodox, Slavic Russia. He may also intend to divide and weaken NATO … [and] to create an enemy abroad … to justify repression at home …. But … Ukraine is as populous […]

» Read more

NATO Chief Touts Alliance’s Forces In Baltics Ahead Of Foreign Ministers Meeting In Riga

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

“For the first time in our history, we have combat-ready battle groups in the Baltic region … in Latvia and … Lithuania,” Stoltenberg said …. NATO also conducts air policing and has an increased naval presence … in the Baltic region […]

» Read more

Lithuania and Poland Want to ‘Recover’ Kaliningrad, Russian Analysts Say

Map of Poland, Kaliningrad, Environs, adapted from CRS image at congress.gov

(Jamestown Foundation – jamestown.org – Eurasia Daily Monitor – Volume 18, Issue 166 – Paul Goble – Nov. 2, 2021) Since Soviet times, Russian analysts have mused about the possibility that Germany might try to recover Kaliningrad, or East Prussia as it was known before Joseph Stalin seized it at the end of World War II. Later, during the 1990s, […]

» Read more

AUDIO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Russia Stands To Gain By Backing Belarus [Fiona Hill interview]” – NPR

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“A growing number of European countries are blocking access to Belarusian airlines. … after Belarus intercepted a commercial flight and removed and arrested Roman Protasevich, an opposition journalist who was on board. … While Western democracies try to sanction Belarus, Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, seems to support Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. … Fiona Hill … spoke to NPR’s All Things […]

» Read more

EU ‘Rejects’ Russian Labeling Of Meduza Media Outlet As ‘Foreign Agent’

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

The [EU] has dismissed Russian authorities’ labeling of Latvia-based independent news outlet Meduza as a “foreign agent” and urged Moscow to end its “systematic infringement” of basic rights and freedoms […]

» Read more

Unplugging the Baltic States: Why Russia’s Economic Approach May Be Shifting

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Emily Ferris – July 1, 2020) Emily Ferris is a research fellow in the international security studies department at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Russia’s approach to the Baltic states is occasionally framed as an imminent territorial takeover. This view has become salient since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, when other nearby countries […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Was the Mayor of Latvia’s Capital Ousted Because He Was Corrupt, or Russian? The case has exposed rifts between the Baltic nation’s Latvian and Russian-speaking communities.”

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

“… at the beginning of April, the Latvian government announced its decision to sack Usakovs, citing violations of the law and city mismanagement that has led to the loss of around 28 million euros in municipal finances. …”

» Read more

‘Only Estonians Here’: Outrage After Election Poster Campaign Singles Out Russian Minority

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

(Article ©2019 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – Matthew Luxmoore – January 10, 2019 – article also appeared at rferl.org/a/estonia-election-posters-russian-minority-outrage/29702111.html) A set of posters in Estonia appearing to advocate ethnic segregation has stoked anger among members of the country’s Russian minority and caused dormant ethnic tensions to resurface ahead of parliamentary elections in March. The six posters […]

» Read more

NEWSLINK: “‘They Will Die in Tallinn’: Estonia Girds for War With Russia; The head of the tiny NATO member’s special forces details his country’s preparations for a conflict many here see as inevitable” – Politico/Molly K. McKew

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

“… The Kremlin invaded Georgia to prevent its accession to NATO. Russia used different means to accomplish the same goal with Ukraine, and then attempted to assassinate the prime minister of Montenegro in a last-ditch effort to forestall the same — all of which expose the Kremlin’s deep paranoia about its former vassals defending themselves from Russian belligerence. The Baltics, […]

» Read more

NEWSLINK: “NATO Prepares for War With Russia With Simulated Naval and Cyberattacks” – Newsweek/Cristina Maza

Globe Highlighting NATO Members

“… As tensions ratchet up between Moscow and the West, NATO countries, especially those like Estonia that border Russia, are increasingly preparing for the worst. The Locked Shields live-fire cyber exercise is a key part of that preparation. …”

» Read more

Interfax: North Atlantic Alliance inflating “threat from the East” – Russian envoy to NATO Grushko

Alexander Grushko file photo, adapted from image at eucom.mil

MOSCOW. Nov 8 (Interfax) – The North Atlantic Alliance is taking an endless series of measures to the sole end of mastering the theater of operations in the Baltic region and Central and Southeastern Europe, as well as creating a force-projection potential, Russian Permanent Representative to NATO Alexander Grushko said in an interview with the Izvestia newspaper published on Wednesday. […]

» Read more

NEWSWATCH: “What would a Russia-NATO war look like? Russia’s wargaming it right now” – Washington Post/ David Filipov, Michael Birnbaum, Andrew Roth

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

“A revitalized Russian military on Monday sent tanks, paratroopers, artillery, antiaircraft weapons, jets and helicopters into frigid rains to engage the forces of a mock enemy called the ‘Western Coalition.’ The barrage of firepower , part of war games that began last week, was an explosive show of force that Baltic leaders said was a simulation of an attack against […]

» Read more

NEWSWATCH: “U.S. to Boost Surveillance For Russian Exercise; Officials say U.S. will move ships into Baltic Sea and take over North Atlantic Treaty Organization air-policing duties” – Wall Street Journal/ Julian E. Barnes

Black Sea Satellite Photo file image

“The U.S. will bolster its ability to observe Russia’s military in the Baltic Sea region ahead of a major exercise by Moscow …. including by moving ships into the Baltic Sea and taking over [NATO] air-policing duties while the #Russian exercises occur in September. The U.S. could temporarily deploy a Patriot missile-defense battery in the region, officials said. … the Russian drill, known […]

» Read more

NEWSWATCH: “AS TRUMP FUMBLES, #PUTIN QUIETLY PREPARES TO INVADE HIS NEIGHBORS” – Newsweek/ Atlantic Council/ STEPHEN BLANK

File Photo of Russian Tanks in Military Parade

Recent #Russian actions suggest a new stage of the Russian threat to #Ukraine – and potentially to the #Caucasus, #Belarus or the #Baltic states as well-that could presage a new large-scale #military operation. … in 2016, Russia created 25 division formations and 15 brigades, while raising manpower by only 10,000 men. … Russia may aim to wage protracted large-scale war using the […]

» Read more

Putin Aims to Undermine Western Democracies With Election Meddling, Experts Say

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

(Voice of America – voanews.com – Ken Bredemeier – March 9, 2017) WASHINGTON – Russian President Vladimir Putin is single-handedly trying to undermine democracy in the United States and Europe and rupture their decades-old NATO alliance by meddling in their elections, foreign affairs analysts and Estonia’s former president told a congressional hearing Thursday in Washington. One of the experts, Peter […]

» Read more

NEWSWATCH: “Even as #Trump seeks warmer ties with #Russia, U.S. deploys troops across Eastern #Europe” – Washington Post

U.S. Army Tanks in Transport Arriving in Germany, adapted from army.mil

“… major new deployments of tanks and other heavy equipment will fan out to nations on the #Russian frontier … part of the largest infusion of U.S. troops to #Europe since the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union. … the long-planned effort comes at the most unsettled time for U.S.-European relations since World War II, with #Trump questioning old alliances […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: “Reply by Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova to a media question on the U.S. troop buildup in Europe”

U.S. Army Tanks in Transport Arriving in Germany, adapted from army.mil

“Question: Do you agree with the assertion promulgated by US and European media that the dispatch of US troops to Europe is not of major importance? …”  

» Read more

The Real Threat to the Baltics Isn’t Russia — It’s Depopulation

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

Depopulation—Invisible Threat to Latvia’s Security (Jamestown Foundation – jamestown.org – Eurasia Daily Monitor: Volume 13, Issue 132 – Olevs Nikers – July 21, 2016) [Also appeared at Russia Insider, with modified title and introductory capsule: “Between ethnic Russians leaving for #Russia and Balts leaving for the UK the three baltic states are emptying out — Latvia and Lithuania lost 8.3 […]

» Read more

War Fever

File Photo of F-22 Fighter and Ground Crew

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Jill Dougherty – July 18, 2016) Jill Dougherty is an expert on Russia and the former Soviet Union. In her three-decade career with CNN she served as Foreign Affairs Correspondent, based in Washington, D.C.,where she covered the State Department and provided analysis on international issues. The Russia File is happy to welcome Jill Dougherty as […]

» Read more

Nothing To Fear

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – The Daily Vertical: Brian Whitmore – July 18, 2016) So the big talking point coming out of the Kremlin is that NATO is overreacting to a non-existent Russian threat. According to Moscow, rotating just four combat battalion groups, a total of 4,000 troops, on the alliance’s eastern frontier constitutes a “provocation.” According to Vladimir Putin’s regime, […]

» Read more

NEWSWATCH: “NATO, Russia to Discuss Increased Baltic Tensions. Russia promises troop buildup in response to 4,000-strong Western force” – Wall Street Journal

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

Russian officials pushed a new air-safety initiative for the Baltic Sea in a meeting with [NATO] ambassadors … as they continued to criticize [NATO’s] planned buildup in the region. … [a proposal that] would require all planes flying in the Baltic Sea region to operate with their transponders turned on … … allied officials welcomed [the proposal] saying it could […]

» Read more

NEWSWATCH: “Factbox: Main Decisions of NATO’s Warsaw Summit” – Reuters

Patriot Missile Launch file photo

* NATO agreed to deploy military forces to the Baltic states and eastern Poland from January 2017 to deter Russia, a response to Moscow’s 2014 seizure of Crimea from Ukraine. … four battalions totaling between 3,000 and 4,000 troops will be led by Britain in Estonia, the United States in Poland, Canada in Latvia and Germany in Lithuania. * NATO […]

» Read more

NEWSWATCH: “NATO Set to Approve Baltic Force at Warsaw Summit; Alliance officials say they are uncertain how Russia’s Putin will respond” – Wall Street Journal

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

As the North Atlantic Treaty Organization prepares to kick off its summit here Friday, allies are casting a wary eye on Russia and its reaction to the expected approval of a new alliance force in the Baltic. … described by some as the most important gathering of NATO since the end of the Cold War … will authorize the presence […]

» Read more

Putin, Russian Security Council Discuss Baltic Airspace

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – July 5, 2016) Russian President Vladimir Putin has chaired a meeting with the country’s Security Council to discuss possible “confidence-building” steps in the skies over the Baltic region and details in connection with a NATO summit later this week, a presidential spokesman said. Putin also talked with the council’s permanent members about the situation in Syria, […]

» Read more

Putin Understands West but West Doesn’t Understand Putin, Moscow Hybrid War Specialist Says

Putin and Obama with U.S. and Russian Flags

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, June 20, 2016) Russia’s power does “not even come close” to that of the US, Andrey Manoylo says; but Moscow has an advantage “right now” because it understands the value of “asymmetric action” and because “the US clearly has difficulties with predicting Russia’s activities,” because of Washington’s overly simplistic models of Russian […]

» Read more

VIDEO & TRANSCRIPT: The Baltics Remember, Russia Forgets

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

(RFE/RL – The Daily Vertical: Brian Whitmore – June 15, 2016) [Video further below] Seventy-five years ago this week, an ethnic cleansing campaign began. Seventy-five years ago this week, tens of thousands of people were uprooted from their homes, from their lives, and from their families. Seventy-five years ago this week — when the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany were […]

» Read more

In Estonia, we should be careful not to overstate the impact of the information war

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

The Baltic States are now seen as the next frontline in Russia’s hybrid war. But the political preferences of ethnic Russian communities are more complicated than meets the eye. (opendemocracy.net – Vassilis Petsinis – May 30, 2016) Vassilis Petsinis is a political analyst at the European Commission’s representation in Greece. His specialisation is european politics and ethnopolitics with a regional […]

» Read more

NEWSWATCH: “The U.S. and Russia Plan for Conflict” – Stratfor

File Photo of F-22 Fighter and Ground Crew

… In critical areas, including … Syria and Ukraine and arms control … both [the United States and Russia] would genuinely like to negotiate viable solutions. Nevertheless … mistrust … runs deep … vast differences of opinion and outright conflicts of interest will continue to undermine efforts …. With little hope of a positive outcome, the strategic decision-makers in Washington […]

» Read more

The Futility of Dialogue With Putin

Vladimir Putin file photo with VOA logo; screen shot from video still

(Jamestown Foundation – jamestown.org – Eurasia Daily Monitor: Volume 13, Issue 100 – Pavel K. Baev – May 23, 2016) The need to keep the channels of dialogue open with an unpredictable Russia is taken as an absolute imperative by many Western politicians. But they are often surprised when this tactic backfires. The foreign ministers of the member states of […]

» Read more

NEWSATCH: “Will Any More European Powers Contribute to NATO’s Eastern Force?” – Wall Street Journal

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

Now that the U.S. is only sending one—not two—battalions for the alliance military force on the eastern flank, there is a big question regarding which country will fill the void. … [NATO] has been working on a plan to step up its deterrence of Russia by creating a force of about 4,000 troops, a battalion for Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and […]

» Read more

Warning Of War, Ex-Deputy Commander Says NATO Must Counter ‘Russian Adventurism’ In Baltics

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Eugen Tomiuc – May 22, 2016) A former NATO deputy supreme commander is warning that the alliance could find itself in a full-fledged armed conflict with Russia within a year if it does not strongly step up its presence in the Baltic states. Retired British General Richard Shirreff set out the stark scenario in a book […]

» Read more

NEWSLINK Russia Direct: “Conventional arms race draws the world closer to state of brinkmanship. With NATO’s military buildup near Russian borders and signs of instability from the Middle East to East Asia, it’s no longer inconceivable that the great powers could find themselves involved in a conventional war.”

File Photo of F-22 Fighter and Ground Crew » Read more

NEWSWATCH: “The West needs to stop panicking about Russia’s “hybrid” warfare” – Vox/Mark Galeotti

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

… The fact is that Russian security discussions are dominated by an awareness of the country’s vulnerabilities to a stronger, richer, larger, more advanced West. Up to now, though, we have not let ourselves acknowledge our strengths. The greatest risk for the West is, after all, not its weakness of means but a perception of its weakness of will, both […]

» Read more

NEWSLINK RBTH/Gazeta.ru: “Russian general: ‘We never send notes to the U.S. State Department.’ General Pyotr Deinekin, former chief of the Russian air force, talks about the latest incidents involving Russian warplanes and U.S. ships and aircraft”

Russian Jet Buzzing U.S. Navy Destroyer, adapted from U.S. Navy photo » Read more
1 2