RUSSIA & UKRAINE – Johnson’s Russia List table of contents :: JRL 2016-188 :: Tuesday, 11 October 2016

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

To inquire about a subscription to the full Johnson’s Russia List e-mail newsletter, e-mail David Johnson at davidjohnson@starpower.net [check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2016-#188 Tuesday, 11 October 2016 A project sponsored through the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s […]

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NEWSLINK RBTH: “Russia to establish a permanent naval base in Syria”

File Photo of Deck of Russian Aircraft Carrier Admiral Kuznetsov

“The Russian naval facility in the city of Tartus will be upgraded into a permanent naval base. Military experts believe that the Russian Defense Ministry may set up a detachment of ships in the Mediterranean armed with Kalibr-NK cruise missiles and headed by the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier.”

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Putin’s Stalin Envy

File Photo of Vladimir Putin at Outdoor Rally with Microphone in Hand and Heavy Coat

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Brian Whitmore -October 11, 2016) Vladimir Putin isn’t necessarily afraid of Josef Stalin, but he’s clearly haunted by him. He’s haunted by him because he knows he can never replicate Stalin’s accomplishments. He’s haunted by him because Stalin represents a standard Putin knows he can never live up to. Stalin resurrected the disintegrated Russian Empire in […]

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TRANSCRIPT: [Putin at] World Energy Congress in Istanbul

Offshore Oil Rig file photo

(Kremlin.ru – October 10, 2016) Vladimir Putin took part in a special session of the World Energy Congress. President of Russia Vladimir Putin: President Erdogan, presidents and colleagues, Mr Prime Minister, ladies and gentlemen, It is a great pleasure to have the opportunity to address such an authoritative international forum. I believe that in the current complicated global economic situation, […]

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The Three Kinds of Stalinists in Putin’s Russia Don’t Include Any Real Ones, Malashenko Says

File Photo of Vladimir Lenin and Joseph Stalin

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, October 10, 2016) Russians may say that they have a positive view of Stalin – according to polls, more than half now do – but, despite the Kremlin’s promotion of the need for “a strong hand,’ there are no real Stalinists among them because both the state and society have changed and […]

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RUSSIALINK Russia Today/RT: “Rosneft boss says no to output freeze or cut”

File Photo of Rosneft and Russian Flags Next to Rosneft Banner

“The man in charge of Russia’s largest oil company Rosneft is skeptical about a global crude production freeze or cut, despite President Putin’s pledge to cooperate with OPEC.”

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NEWSWATCH: “Oil hits one-year high as Russia ready to join output caps” – Reuters

Oil Well file photo

Oil prices jumped as much as 3 percent on Monday, with Brent hitting a one-year high, after Russia said it was ready to join OPEC in curbing crude output and Algeria called for similar commitments from other non-OPEC producers. … “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join,” […]

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RUSSIALINK Russia Today/RT: “New wartime state management system gives full power to Russian military – report”

File Photo of Russian Tanks in Military Parade

“A recent military exercise in southern Russia saw the first real-time test of the state management system that allows the Defense Ministry to assume direct control over municipal and regional authorities, police, state security and emergency services.”

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE – Johnson’s Russia List table of contents :: JRL 2016-187 :: Monday, 10 October 2016

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

To inquire about a subscription to the full Johnson’s Russia List e-mail newsletter, e-mail David Johnson at davidjohnson@starpower.net [check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2016-#187 Monday, 10 October 2016 A project sponsored through the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s […]

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Joint Statement from the Department Of Homeland Security and Office of the Director of National Intelligence on Election Security [re: Russia and Hacking]

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

(Department of Homeland Security – dhs.gov – Oct. 7, 2016) Release Date: October 7, 2016 For Immediate Release DHS Press Office Contact: 202-282-8010 The U.S. Intelligence Community (USIC) is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of e-mails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations. The recent disclosures of alleged hacked e-mails on sites like […]

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NEWSWATCH: “What Clinton and Trump need to know about Putin’s Russia” – The Hill/Ariel Cohen

File Photo of White House with South Lawn and Fountain

When Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump address security challenges … Putin’s Russia will loom large. This is no longer post-communist Russia attempting the transition to a market-based democracy and looking up to the West. That transformation was an epic failure. In Putin’s words, ‘Russia is rising from its knees’. … therein lies the threat. … The next American president will […]

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NEWSWATCH: “The scary truth about what Putin really wants (and Obama’s willful ignorance)” – Fox News/Judith Miller

File Photo of G7 Leaders and other Officials Around Round Table at the Hague, with Flags

What is Vladimir Putin up to? Evidence of Russian ambition seems to mount by the day. Seizing its neighbor’s territory. Russian bomber overflights of NATO member states. Sophisticated cyberattacks aimed at influencing America’s presidential election. Missiles fired at civilian aircraft. Devastating air strikes on hospitals and relief convoys in Aleppo as the ink dries on a U.S.-Russian cease-fire agreement for […]

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Russians May Care Far Less about Foreign Agent Designations than Kremlin Thinks

Kremlin and River

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, October 8, 2016) Vladimir Putin clearly expects that Russians will be put off by and avoid any organization his regime designates as “a foreign agent” because it receives money from abroad. But the experience of the Levada Center, one of the institutions he has classed in this way, suggests that the epithet […]

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The Ghosts Of Kremlins Past — Lenin

Aerial View of Kremlin and Environs

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Brian Whitmore- October 10, 2016) Vladimir Vladimirovich is afraid of Vladimir Ilyich. Vladimir Putin is terrified of Vladimir Lenin. He’s afraid of how Lenin came to power. He’s afraid of how he led a street uprising that toppled an empire. And he’s afraid that a 21st-century Lenin could be lurking in the shadows. This isn’t about […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Politkovskaya Ten Years On” – Sean’s Russia Blog/Sean Guillory

Anna Politkovskaya file photo

It’s been ten years since an assassin put four bullets in Anna Politkovskaya — three in her chest, one in her head, the hallmark of a contract hit. … We can recall her career and her drive to cover the horrors of #Chechnya in ways few would. … We can quote her many articles and books for their continued relevance. […]

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NEWSLINK RBTH: “Russia: We will shoot down U.S. jets in Syria that threaten our servicemen”

File Photo of F-22 Fighter and Ground Crew

“… Russian air defense and anti-missile systems in Syria are ready to shoot down ‘any unidentified flying object’ if air strikes are carried out on Syrian government positions, according to Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov. …”

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NEWSLINK Carnegie Moscow/Andrey Movchan: “How Does the Head of an Anti-Corruption Agency Wind Up With $120 Million in Cash?”

Cash, Calculator, Pen

The $120 million in cash found in Dmitry Zakharchenko’s sister’s home must have come from some sort of illegal business activity-likely involving the contraband market.

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE – Johnson’s Russia List table of contents :: JRL 2016-186 :: Friday, 7 October 2016

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

To inquire about a subscription to the full Johnson’s Russia List e-mail newsletter, e-mail David Johnson at davidjohnson@starpower.net [check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2016-#186 Friday, 7 October 2016 A project sponsored through the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Dealing with a simmering Ukraine-Russia conflict” – Brookings/Fiona Hill, Steven Pifer

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

A major foreign policy challenge that will confront the new U.S. administration from day one is Ukraine and its conflict with Russia. … Minsk II … that was to end the fighting in … Donbas … has yet to be implemented. There is little sign that Moscow wants a settlement, apparently preferring a ‘simmering’ rather than ‘frozen’ conflict, where it […]

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Russian economy unlikely to grow more than 1.5% annually in medium term – MinFin

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

MOSCOW. Oct 7 (Interfax) – Internal structural problems and external conditions will limit Russia’s economic growth to 1.5% annually in the medium term, according to the Finance Ministry’s draft fiscal policy guidelines, posted on the State Duma Budget and Tax Committee’s website. The guidelines are based on the baseline scenario of the Economic Development Ministry’s socioeconomic development forecast for 2017 […]

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Russia Must Deal With Catastophic Brain Drain; With brain drain, only leaders and those who leave are winners: the country is the big loser.

Mercator Projection Satellite Image of Earth

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Yelena Mukhametshina – October 7, 2016) After suffering a major brain drain in the 1990s, Russia is once again witnessing a rise in emigration. But whereas people back then left the country because of the crumbling economy, now they are leaving even as the government attempts to diversify it, writes Committee for Civil Initiatives (CCI) […]

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NEWSWATCH: “This Week Marks the 10th Anniversary of Anna Politkovskaya’s Murder; The legacy of the fearless Russian journalist’s muckraking reporting still lives on.” – The Nation

Anna Politkovskaya file photo

Katrina vanden Heuvel, Publisher and Editor of The Nation, memorializes slain Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya on the 10-year anniversary of Politkovskaya’s assassination, and considers some of the dangers and other challenges impacting Russian journalists. It is 10 years since Russia and the world lost a great and courageous journalist. The killing of Anna Politkovskaya on October 7, 2006, was horrifying […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE – Johnson’s Russia List table of contents :: JRL 2016-185 :: Thursday, 6 October 2016

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

To inquire about a subscription to the full Johnson’s Russia List e-mail newsletter, e-mail David Johnson at davidjohnson@starpower.net [check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2016-#185 Thursday, 6 October 2016 A project sponsored through the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s […]

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Russians’ Incomplete Transition from Rural to Urban Life behind Many of Russia’s Problems, Vishnevsky Says

Russia Regions Map

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, October 6, 2016) During the 20th century, large numbers of #Russians moved from villages to the cities, but as of now, many of them have not completed the psychological transition from rural to urban life; and that has given rise to marginal groups who represent a threat to the country, according to […]

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Russian Memorial NGO receives “undesirable” funds – ministry

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

(Interfax – October 5, 2016) Russian human rights NGO Memorial has received funds from foreign organisations officially designated as “undesirable”, the Russian Justice Ministry press service has said, as quoted by privately-owned Russian news agency Interfax on 5 October. On the previous day, the ministry included Memorial on the list of “foreign agents” under controversial 2012 amendments to the law […]

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In Putin’s World, Crime Pays

Ukraine Air Crash Scene with Uniformed Security Personnel, Flames, Smoke

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Brian Whitmore – October 3, 2016) By most objective standards, last week’s news should have been an unmitigated disaster for Vladimir Putin’s regime. By most objective standards, the Kremlin should be worried that it risks becoming an international pariah. By most objective standards, September 28 should have been a dark day for Russia. Dutch investigators on […]

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Putin Making the Same Mistake Hitler Did, Piontkovsky Says

File Photo of Benito Mussolini and Adolf Hitler Riding in Convertible

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, October 4, 2016) After meeting with the leaders of Britain and France, Adolf Hitler concluded that he was dealing with non-entities and that he couldn’t possibly lose a war against them, forgetting not only that these countries could and would change leaders but also that the outcome of conflicts reflects not just […]

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Russian Economy Takes Hit From Putin’s Grip

Vladimir Putin

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – September 26, 2016) As President Vladimir Putin further tightens his grip on power after dubious elections that gave his party an absolute majority, Russia is sliding into protracted stagnation. The Economics Ministry has adjusted downward its forecast through 2019 and Russia is now expected to underperform the global economy even more than previously […]

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Others Cease, Russia Fires

Syria Map

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Brian Whitmore – October 4, 2016) Should we really be that surprised that Russia has opted to flat out ignore the cease-fire it agreed to in Syria? Should we really be all that shocked by the all-out assault on Aleppo? Probably not. In Moscow, the definition of a cease-fire appears to be that the other side […]

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New Russian Consensus Reflects National Masochism, Rosbalt Commentator Says

Aerial View of Kremlin and Environs

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, October 4, 2016) This year has been marked by the rise in Russia of a new “societal agreement” on three points: that the country is in stagnation and will remain so for a long time, that Putin will stay in office “until the end of life (his or ours), and that “after […]

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Putin’s Ultimatum to the Next U.S. President

File Photo of White House with South Lawn and Fountain

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – October 4, 2016) Leonid Bershidsky is a Bloomberg View columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru. The next U.S. administration will inherit the worst relationship with Russia since Ronald Reagan called the Soviet Union an evil empire. Judging from the list of […]

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Russia’s Syria Campaign Seen Purely as Bid to Prop Up Assad

Syria Map

(Voice of America – voanews.com – Victor Vladimirov – MOSCOW – September 30, 2016) The Russian air force’s bombing campaign in Syria marked its first anniversary Friday, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying there was no “time frame” for the operation. The Kremlin has officially declared the main objectives of its air campaign in Syria to be eliminating radical Islamic […]

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What Putin Wants

Vladimir Putin file photo with VOA logo; screen shot from video still

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Brian Whitmore – October 5, 2016) Vladimir Putin wants a bunch of things. He wants NATO to be scaled back to where it was at the turn of century, essentially reducing it from 28 to 19 members. He wants the United States to repeal the Magnitsky Act and end all sanctions against Russia. He wants the […]

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NEWSLINK RAND: “Russia’s Determination to Revise the Post-Cold War Order”

World Map Showing Continents, Greens, Browns, Ice

“The Russian economy has been in recession for nearly two years now, with GDP growth shrinking by 3.7 percent in 2015. However, as the recession continues and persistent low oil prices cut government revenues to the bone, military spending has remained almost immune to cuts, and the country has undertaken expensive foreign military interventions in Ukraine and Syria. The Cipher […]

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Expert: Putin’s Reported Plan to Restore KGB May Reflect Fear of Overthrow

Stylized Artist's Depiction of Shadowy Figures in Dark Coats and Dark Hats, One Carrying a Briefcase

(Voice of America – voanews.com – Jim Kovpak – MOSCOW, September 26, 2016) The consolidation of Russia’s intelligence agencies into a massive security ministry, in effect recreating the old Soviet KGB, is a worrisome prospect for some Kremlin watchers. The plan reportedly under discussion would merge the Federal Security Service (FSB), Russia’s principal security agency, the Foreign Intelligence Service and […]

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Analysis: ‘Barbarous’ Syria Bombings, MH17 Blame: What Consequences Could Russia Face?

Kremlin and Saint Basil's File Photo

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Steve Gutterman – September 30, 2016) In terms of its reputation, Russia has had one of its worst weeks ever. Incensed that Moscow is pushing ahead with the “barbarous” bombing of Aleppo and angry over an attack on an aid convoy that is widely blamed on Russian and Syrian forces, the United States is threatening to […]

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NEWSLINK War on the Rocks/Joshua Foust: “CAN FANCY BEAR BE STOPPED? THE CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER OF RUSSIAN INFO OPS”

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

“Russia is engaged in an unprecedented, sophisticated attack on the American political system. Defeating it won’t be easy.”

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NEWSWATCH: “The murder that killed free media in Russia; A decade after the assassination of Anna Politkovskaya, news organisations increasingly avoid topics that could anger the Kremlin” – The Guardian (UK)/Shaun Walker

File Photo of Mourners with Photo of Anna Politkovskaya

 … In the decade since [Anna] Politkovskaya’s death, the space for independent journalism in Russia has narrowed …. Since 2006, the Committee to Protect Journalists has recorded 20 journalists’ killings, while Freedom House has counted 63 violent attacks on reporters. But for the most part, the threat of closure keeps publications in line and encourages self-censorship. … news sources have […]

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NEWSWATCH: “New Cold War? Russia, U.S. Relations At Lowest Point Since 1970s” – NBC

Kremlin and River

An American spy working undercover in Moscow is tackled and beaten at the gates of the U.S. Embassy. A Russian fighter jet flies within 30 feet of a U.S. Navy ship. Russian intelligence agencies hack into an American political party, and soon afterward embarrassing emails become public. The same Russian government that invaded and annexed Ukrainian territory in Crimea is […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE – Johnson’s Russia List table of contents :: JRL 2016-184 :: Wednesday, 5 October 2016

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

To inquire about a subscription to the full Johnson’s Russia List e-mail newsletter, e-mail David Johnson at davidjohnson@starpower.net [check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2016-#184 Wednesday, 5 October 2016 A project sponsored through the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE – Johnson’s Russia List table of contents :: JRL 2016-183 :: Tuesday, 4 October 2016

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

To inquire about a subscription to the full Johnson’s Russia List e-mail newsletter, e-mail David Johnson at davidjohnson@starpower.net [check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2016-#183 Tuesday, 4 October 2016 A project sponsored through the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s […]

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Russia to Increase Military Spending While Slashing Welfare Budget

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – October 4, 2016) Russia’s military spending is set to increase by 679 billion rubles ($10 billion) despite the welfare budget decreasing by 375 billion rubles ($6 billion), the Gazeta.ru news website reported Tuesday, citing a source in the government. The government’s finance ministry published a bill of amendments to the welfare budget on Monday, announcing […]

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Russian economy’s mono-product era could end in 2028-2030 – Gref

File Photo of German Gref Shaking Hands with U.S. Official

MOSCOW. Oct 4 (Interfax) – The Russian economy might leave its mono-product era behind in 2028-2030, Herman Gref, the head of Sberbank (MOEX: SBER), said. “When might this mono-product era potentially end? In 2028-2030. The general feeling is and all the trends we have today indicate that there won’t be a repeat of the commodities super-cycle. We need to be […]

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Russia Hones Bank Oversight in Biggest Shakeup Since Crisis

Central Bank of Russia file photo

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Olga Tanas October 4, 2016) Russia’s central bank sidelined the officials who headed its unprecedented cull of lenders, rearranging its leadership in the biggest shakeup since a currency crisis last year. Dmitry Tulin, the first deputy governor in charge of monetary policy, will replace Alexei Simanovsky and take over banking regulation and supervision starting Oct. 17, […]

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On 25 years of postmodernity in the South Caucasus

A quarter century since the collapse of Soviet rule in Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, where is the region now and what can come next? (opendemocracy.net – Georgi Derlugian – October 4, 2016) Georgi Derluguian, in his earlier life a Soviet-trained Africanist, studies the evolution of human societies along with practicing expeditionary fieldwork. Among his books are Bourdieu’s Secret Admirer in […]

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Washington’s latest statements may cause Russia to increase support for Syrian president – Russian expert

Syria Map

MOSCOW. Oct 4 (Interfax) – The U.S. decision to unilaterally suspend interaction with Russia on the truce in Syria may cause the Russian Aerospace Forces’ operation in the country to last longer, Middle East expert and senior teacher at the Higher School of Economics Leonid Isayev said. “I think that this will result in Russia getting more actively involved in […]

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U.S. offered Russia consultations on plutonium disposition methods, Russia’s rejection causes regret – Gottemoeller

File Photo of Rose Gottemoeller Gesturing, Sitting Behind Placard Reading United States of America

WASHINGTON. Oct 4 (Interfax) – The United States offered the Russian side to hold consultations on the methods of plutonium disposition and Russia’s rejection causes regret, the U.S. Under Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller, who will assume the post of NATO Deputy Secretary General in a few days, said. “We’ve been very clear that we would like to consult with […]

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Recession ending, growth under way for Russian economy – Kudrin

Alexei Kudrin file photo

MOSCOW. Oct 4 (Interfax) – The recession in the Russian economy is ending with growth under way, but that growth will be gradual at first, Alexei Kudrin, head of the Center for Strategic Research, said. “This year we’ll still have decline of 0.6%, statistically, but next year we’ll have approximately 0.5-0.8% growth. I repeat, that is statistically not as much […]

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