(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – March 17, 2015) Inflation is the biggest concern for Russians with 82 percent of the population picking it as the most pressing issue facing the country, according to a poll published by the independent Levada Center on Monday. The figure is up from 71 percent in August, and from 69 percent this time last year. […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Mark Adomanis in Philadelphia – March 16, 2015) The most basic part of any bank’s business model is the extension of loans to consumers and corporations. Clients need money, to expand their business, buy a home, or, in a less sunny scenario, to re-finance existing borrowing, and the bank gives it to them while […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – March 14, 2015) With the first billions of dollars foreign aid in its pocket, Ukraine’s government can now stay afloat long enough to embark on its radical reform drive, but the hard part is only just beginning. Ukraine received the first $5 billion on Friday of $17.5 billion in aid promised by the International Monetary […]
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(opendemocracy.net – Kirill Rodionov – March 9, 2015) Kirill Rodionov is an independent journalist. From 2008 to 2013, he was a Research Fellow at the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Moscow. Follow him on Twitter: @k_rodionov In late January 2015, the Russian government adopted an anti-crisis programme. The plan includes a number of measures intended to provide sustainable development of […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Kateryna Killyashenko in Kyiv and Nick Allen in Berlin – March 13, 2015) After the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) approval on March 11 of its $17.5bn loan package to Ukraine, with $5bn due to flow immediately to bolster Kyiv’s dwindling coffers, the population could be forgiven for thinking the material hardships of recent months […]
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The impact of oil prices on the Russian economy is well known. After crude fell 50 percent last fall, the Ministry of Economic Development forecast a 3 percent GDP contraction this year, along with 12 percent inflation. The crash in oil prices will not only test President Vladimir Putin’s domestic support. It will upend Russian foreign policy, challenging the modernization of the country’s armed forces while diminishing its influence in Asia […]
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… Russia will not be able to keep pace with the outside world. If Russia does not possess sufficient economic strength (I do not mean simply hard currency—I mean the capacity to create wealth by real production), surrounding countries will not willingly ally with it. … http://carnegie.ru/eurasiaoutlook/?fa=59335
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Mark Adomanis in Philadelphia) Writing and thinking about Russia can often have a rather surreal quality to it. Something about the place seems to short-circuit peoples’ critical thinking skills. Serious pundits write things (“Russia life expectancy is collapsing!”) that are flatly contradicted by recent academic research and that don’t withstand even the most cursory […]
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Wall Street Journal: A Manhattan federal judge has ordered London-based hedge fund manager William Browder to comply with a subpoena that could force him to reveal the sources of information he gave to federal prosecutors in a high-profile money-laundering case. …
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – March 11, 2015) Representative and branch offices of foreign companies working in Russia are in a race against time to re-register with the authorities or lose their license to operate in the country. The re-registration was intended to streamline bureaucracy for foreign firms, but organizational failures and lack of proper warning have […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – March 6, 2015) So far in 2015 Russia has been one of the best performing equity markets, up 15% year-to-date, following three straight weeks of inflows following the Minsk II ceasefire agreement signed in February. So far in 2015 Russia has been one of the best performing equity markets, […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – March 9, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/russian-ruble-seen-appreciating-third-year] After crashing in December, Russia’s ruble has made a remarkable comeback since February by rising about 15% against the dollar, making it the best performing currency amongst the 14 in Emerging Europe so far this year, according to Bloomberg. And the appreciation of the ruble […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – March 6, 2015) Russian companies have defaulted on 6 billion rubles ($98 million) worth of debt payments over the last seven months, according to a report Thursday by the RBC news website. Despite fears of a spate of corporate defaults as Russia’s economy falters under a falling oil price, Western sanctions on Moscow over Ukraine and […]
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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, March 4, 2015) It is an axiom in most countries that people will protest when their living conditions decline and that assumption underlies current Western policy toward Moscow, but Mark Urnov, one of Russia’s leading political analysts, argues that the situation in Russia is different and that Russians are less rather than […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Yekaterina Sinelschikova, RBTH – March 4, 2015) RBTH continues its Coping with the Crisis series, a collection of stories about how people of different social groups are surviving the economic crisis and how their lives have changed. This time we speak to a young specialist, screenwriter Alyona Barsukevich, who admits that it is […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – March 3, 2015) Businessmen and investors said Monday that the killing of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov by the walls of the Kremlin last week will further worsen Russia’s battered investment climate and create more uncertainty in a market suffering from Western sanctions and an economic recession. “We are already in a period […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Henry Kirby in London – March 3, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/bnechart-russians-latest-reactions-ukraine-sanctions-and-putin] A series of recent polls by Russia’s Levada Center has cast an interesting light on major issues surrounding Russia, such as Russians’ views on the conflict in eastern Ukraine, the effects of continued Western-led sanctions, and the general popularity of the government. Ukraine […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH – March 2, 2015) The war in Ukraine is impeding attempts to improve the business climate in Russia, according to the head of the Moscow State University Department of Economics, Alexander Auzan. The Russian authorities therefore have to invest in infrastructure projects in order to overcome the crisis, say analysts. […]
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(Interfax – February 27, 2015) A public opinion poll conducted by the Institute of Priority Regional Projects in February 2015 4 showed that three-fourths of Russians see the situation in the country as a crisis, Nikolai Mironov, general director of the Institute, said. The poll surveyed 1,600 Russian citizens aged older than 18. It was conducted in 120 populated areas […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Elena Popina – February 26, 2015) Russia is emerging as the world’s best stock market after putting in the worst performance last year. For neighboring Ukraine, the second-biggest loser in 2014, there’s no sign of such a turnaround yet. Russia’s dollar-denominated RTS Index has soared 15 percent in 2015, while the Ukrainian Equities Index is last […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – February 26, 2015) Western politicians and pundits should be more careful with their predictions for the Russian economy: Reports of its demise may prove to be premature. Bashing the Russian economy has lately become a popular pastime. In his state of the nation address last month, U.S. President Barack Obama said it was […]
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(Interfax – February 25, 2015) Moscow, 25 February: Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev thinks that the aim of the Western sanctions is to put pressure on the development of Russia’s mineral resource base, while Russia’s dependence on oil and gas prices may pose a threat to its national security. “The aim of the sanctions is to put pressure on the […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Andrew Mayeda – February 26, 2015) Ukraine risks losing support from IMF member countries for a proposed $17.5 billion bailout if the conflict in the former Soviet republic continues to escalate, according to two people familiar with the matter. The new four-year loan program is awaiting approval by the International Monetary Fund’s executive board, which represents […]
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(Interfax – February 24, 2015) The share of Russians acknowledging the ongoing economic crisis has grown to 71 percent, from 62 percent in January, the Public Opinion Foundation said. Some 14 percent of 1,500 respondents polled in 100 populated localities in 43 regions on February 14-15 claim they do not see any signs of a crisis (down from 20 percent […]
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[“Russia’s military budget may shrink 10 pct in 2015 – Rostec” – Reuters – Stanley Carvalho – Feb. 23, 2015] Reuters covers news that Russian defense spending might shrink this year, due to the impact of Ukraine-related sanctions. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov previously had said that 10 percent cuts to government spending would spare defense. But on Monday the head of […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – February 20, 2015) Moscow sold a total of $45 billion of U.S. treasury bonds in 2014 as relations with Western governments reached a post-Soviet nadir over the Ukraine crisis. Russia jettisoned $22 billion worth of U.S. treasury bonds in December as the Kremlin scrambled for cash to battle a plunging ruble and […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – MACRO ADVISER: Chris Weafer – February 17, 2015) Chris Weafer is Senior Partner at Macro-Advisory, which offers bespoke Russia-CIS consulting. Bill Clinton famously won the first of his two presidential elections using the slogan: “It’s the economy, stupid”. He recognised that while support for the first Gulf War had been strong, people were starting […]
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(Interfax – MOSCOW, Feb. 17, 2015) The Russian economy will enter a period of lengthy decline in 2015, the Economic Development Ministry said in its updated forecast. “If major geopolitical risks and hypotheses that oil will average at $50 a barrel persist, then GDP could fall 3%. According to forecasts, the economy will enter a period of lengthy decline in […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Yekaterina Sinelschikova, RBTH – February 17, 2015) RBTH is launching People in Crisis, a series of stories about how people of different social groups are surviving the economic crisis and how their lives have changed. Our first installment features businessman Alexei Gisak – co-founder of the pan-Asiatic fast-food chain Wokker in Moscow. In […]
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(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, February 15, 2015) Vladimir Putin’s bombast and aggressiveness both is rooted in and helps conceal the underlying reality: “the situation of Russia is much more difficult than it appears,” as even the most superficial examination of Russian realities demonstrates, according to Moscow political analyst Vasily Zharkov. In a commentary in yesterday’s “Novaya […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – February 16, 2015) Former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin took part in an anti-crisis meeting chaired by President Vladimir Putin on Friday in the latest sign that the Kremlin insider turned government critic is playing a more prominent role in economic decision making. The gathering at Putin’s Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow also […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Anna Andrianova – February 15, 2015) Russian households are bearing the brunt of the blowback from the crisis in Ukraine and a tailspin in oil prices, setting the stage for the biggest drop in consumption in more than two decades that will deepen the country’s recession. Crushed by a 44 percent slump in the ruble in the past […]
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MOSCOW. Feb 16 (Interfax) – The lack of lending sources is having a worse effect on the Russian oil industry than the low price of oil, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in an interview with Interfax. “The main issue is the lack of lending resources, sources of financing, not the price of oil. Accordingly, due to the lack of financing, […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – PERSPECTIVE: bne IntelliNews – February 16, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/perspective-russias-investment-climate-plummets] A survey into Russia’s investment climate by Moscow-based Detail Communications found that investment confidence has halved since the crisis hit. However, a third of respondents – a mix of portfolio managers and analysts from some of the most prominent investment banks, asset management firms […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – February 12, 2015) U.S. President Barack Obama has claimed the Kremlin’s role in the Ukraine crisis brought the Russian economy to its knees. So, if a peace accord is reached in Minsk on Wednesday will it reboot the Russian economy? Hopes are high that a gathering of Russian, French, German and Ukrainian […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Kateryna Illyashenko in Kyiv – February 12, 2015) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has tentatively agreed a $17.5bn extended fund facility with Ukraine, part of an overall $40bn funding package for the country over the next four years, the fund’s managing director, Christine Lagarde, said on February 12. The package will go some way […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan – February 11, 2015) Russia’s consumer price inflation hit 15 percent in annual terms in January, the highest rate since February 1999, on the back of the sharp decline in oil prices last fall and the consequent collapse of the Russian ruble in December. Future fluctuations in the inflation rate are […]
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(Interfax – Istanbul, February 10, 2015) Ukraine has asked Russia to agree to a restructuring of its debt, but it is in the Russian Federation’s interest to recover the currency assets it invested in Ukrainian eurobonds, and Russia is not willing for the repayment of these debts to be deferred or delayed, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has told journalists. […]
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ISTANBUL. Feb 10 (Interfax) – Russia warned G20 finance ministers meeting in Istanbul about the risks of a slowdown of global economic growth as a result of the drop in oil prices and called for a deeper analysis of the impact that the drop in prices has had on the economies of various countries, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH – February 7, 2015) The Winter Olympic Games in Sochi were supposed to give an impetus to the development of the Russian economy, with the Central Bank anticipating that Russia’s GDP would grow by 1.8 percent in 2014, partly as a result of the Olympics. However, observers say that sanctions […]
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(Interfax – February 9, 2015) Economic problems and inflation rates leading to soaring prices are Russians’ biggest worries as mentioned by 23 percent and 22 percent of respondents respectively in a recent poll held by the Public Opinion Foundation. Compared to December 2014, the share of Russians upset by economic problems has grown by 9 percent. The Foundation polled 1,600 […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.ru – Nick Kochan in London – February 5, 2015) As winter grips the UK, a group of Russian coal companies with leaders closely linked to President Vladimir Putin are enabling British power companies to keep the country’s lights on – a precarious position as the sanctions rhetoric rises once again. Three Russian firms, SUEK, KRU […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – February 6, 2015) Despite dire economic forecasts, Russia will escape high unemployment and social unrest this year thanks to an exodus of migrant workers, clever politics and a flexible shadow economy, analysts said. Officials are braced for layoffs. Russia must “prepare for the fact that people will become unemployed,” Deputy Prime Minister […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Henry Kirby in London – February 6, 2015) [Chart here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/bnechart-russians-appear-blase-toward-sanctions] A recent poll by Russia’s Levada Center has shown that Western sanctions left scarcely more of an impression on Russians than their New Year holidays did. As the bne:Chart shows, when asked January 23-26 what they considered the most important event of the […]
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(Institute of Modern Russia – imrussia.org – Donald N. Jensen – February 4, 2015) As Russia’s economy enters recession and its political stability starts to weaken, there is increasing speculation about the possibility of a regime change in the country. Donald N. Jensen, resident fellow of the Center for Transatlantic Relations, discusses Russia’s political climate and the options currently confronting […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Yekaterina Sinelschikova, RBTH – January 30, 2015) Residents of Russian provinces outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg have started feeling the impact of the weak economy on their pocketbooks. Experts say that all social strata, rich and poor alike, are already beginning to suffer as a result of the economic crisis. Retirees and […]
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[“Morgan Stanley thinks Russia’s doomed” – BusinessInsider.com – Elena Holodny – January 30, 2015] Business Insider reports on Morgan Stanley’s pessimistic Russian economic forecast: Morgan Stanley has a short message for Russia: you’re doomed. This past week hasn’t been easy for the Russian economy: … Thursday … EU foreign ministers decided to extend … sanctions on Russia by six months. Additionally, the Central Bank slashed […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anna Dolgov – January 30, 2015) A recent state poll asking Russians about their fears has laid bare a telling change in attitudes: more than double the number of respondents said they feared a nuclear war compared to two years ago. Russia’s deteriorating relations with the West and the economic turmoil that followed sanctions imposed […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH- January 27, 2015) The Russian authorities are to spend some $21 billion to rescue the country’s economy. The money will be used mainly to capitalize major banks, support the agricultural sector and fund construction, and will be allocated from the federal budget and the National Wealth Fund, the repository of […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews – January 27, 2015) Standard & Poor’s downgraded Russia’s credit rating to junk status late on January 26, a move which precipitated the rouble’s fall by more than 6%. S&P lowered Russia’s credit rating to BB+, one step below investment grade, as renewed fighting in Ukraine raised the threat of tighter Western […]
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