(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Yekaterina Sinelschikova, RBTH – April 6, 2015) A newly published report titled “Between Crimea and the Crisis” puts forward two scenarios of Russia’s future, both of which predict serious domestic upheavals. Everything hinges on the outcome of the Ukrainian conflict. How likely are these scenarios? RBTH investigates. Russia will be swept by moods […]
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MOSCOW. April 6 (Interfax) – Inflation in Russia slowed to 1.2% in March from 2.2% in February, 3.9% in January and 2.6% in December, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. This was slightly above the 1.1% that analysts predicted in a consensus forecast for Interfax. It was also higher than the 1% that Rosstat itself estimated, although that was […]
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Like many Russians who climbed into an emerging middle class in recent years, Miller is watching his relative prosperity vanish. The plummet in global oil prices since last summer and Western sanctions imposed on Russia over its seizure of Ukrainian territory last year have cut deeply into the national budget, which depends on hydrocarbon exports for more than half of […]
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(Institute of Modern Russia – imrussia.org – Donald N. Jensen – April 1, 2015 – article also appeared at imrussia.org/en/analysis/politics/2217-is-there-a-feud-over-a-new-tsar-in-the-kremlin) Vladimir Putin’s ten-day absence from the public eye has become the most discussed event in Russia this past month, and also highlights the country’s crisis of governance. According to Donald Jensen, resident fellow of the Center for Transatlantic Relations, keeping the increasingly […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Iana Dreyer in Brussels – April 2, 2015) It looks like part of the trade war, but it isn’t. The World Trade Organization is about to set up its fourth dispute settlement panel in two years between Brussels and Moscow. One could mistake this as a sign of the growing trade tensions amid the […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – April 2, 2015) The World Bank predicted Wednesday that Russia’s economy will contract by 3.8 percent this year and continue to underperform in the years to come amid the continuing impact of Western sanctions. Economic problems will also drive down real wages and push about 5 million more Russians into poverty this […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Apri 1, 2015) President Vladimir Putin should use the sky-high rating he has earned on the back of the Ukraine crisis to reform the economy, former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin was quoted as saying Tuesday. “Global leaders’ high ratings are a basis for trust and to conduct reforms,” Kudrin said, news agency RBC reported. “If this […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – CONFERENCE CALL: Marcus Booth in London – April 1, 2015) Russia has experienced a “significant rally” in recent weeks, amid “wide acknowledgement” that the country has “significant financial cushions and liquidity buffers,” Andreas Kolbe of Barclays told attendees at the “EMTA Special Seminar “Russia/Ukraine: An Update” on March 26. At the panel session, hosted […]
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(Moscow Times – April 1, 2016) Only 2 percent of Russians count the ruble’s collapse among the most important issues facing their country, according to a recent survey by state pollster VTsIOM. When asked the question “Which problems do you believe are the most important for the country as a whole?” 21 percent of respondents chose “the economy,” 17 percent […]
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[“World Bank sees protracted recession in Russia” – Reuters – March 31, 2015] Reuters covers pessimistic forecasts by the World Bank of Russia’s near-term economic prospects. Russia faces a protracted recession as the impact of Western sanctions lingers and oil prices stay low, the World Bank said in a report published on Wednesday. In its baseline scenario, the bank expected Russia’s […]
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[“Russia Has Ukraine’s Economy in a Choke Hold” – Moscow Times – Josh Cohen – Mar. 31, 2015] Writing in The Moscow Times, Josh Cohen considers Russia’s impact on Ukraine’s economy, including within the context of Russia’s impact on efforts to restructure Ukraine’s debt in connect with bailout financing. … to paraphrase Clausewitz, while the Minsk II cease-fire continues to hold in […]
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[“Former Putin allies question his political course” – AP – NATALIYA VASILYEVA – March 31, 2015] As Russian President Vladimir Putin marks 15 years in power, former advisors such as Alexei Kudrin are raising concerns over the impact of his current policies, such as the economic fallout of Putin’s aggressive foreign policy. … in a rare show of dissent several long-time […]
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[“American farmer among the winners in sanctions-hit Russia” – AP – James Ellingsworth – Apr. 1, 2015] AP examines the impact of Ukraine-related Western sanctions on Russia, such as increased prices for some farmers, instability in international projects, and evolving energy relations between Russia and China. The impact of sanctions, and a Russian embargo, on agriculture is apparently mixed. Russia’s ‘counter-sanctions’ ban on food imports […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – March 31, 2015) Russians with homes and cottages located on state-owned land now have the exclusive right to buy that land – and at a reduced rate, according to an order signed by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and published on the government’s website Monday. “For a citizen possessing a residence, dacha or garage on the […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – March 31, 2015) Walk down Oxford Street into Knightsbridge and the signs “we speak Russian” are pasted inside the windows of many high-end shops. Bishops Avenue in north London has become one of the world’s most expensive addresses and is home to several oligarchs in exile. The lingua franca […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber – March 31, 2015) Withheld salaries, unforeseen firings and pay cuts have amplified discontent in an array of Russia’s economic sectors, leading to a handful of strikes political analysts said Monday were more likely to bolster workers’ support for the Kremlin than weaken it. A scattering of Russian teachers, builders and factory workers […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – March 27, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-27/putin-s-economic-team-plays-houdini] Last week, the Russian central bank’s currency reserves increased for the first time since last July, showing that the economy may have moved past the panic caused by last year’s oil price slump. Perhaps Russia’s improving indicators will convince Western governments that economic sanctions are having no […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Bryan MacDonald, special to RBTH – March 30, 2015) The ruble’s calamitous fall against the euro and dollar this winter and a well-publicised recession makes Russia less attractive for expats than anytime in recent memory. But are they really leaving the country? Bryan MacDonald discovers that how the economy is faring back home […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – March 27, 2015) A confusing argument has broken out over the crucial question of whether Ukraine’s $3bn worth of bonds held by Russia and due in December are “official” debt or not. The answer is important because if the bonds are “official” and Ukraine doesn’t pay them, the International […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Spinella – March 30, 2015) Russia’s relations with the West may have reached lows unparalleled since the Cold War, but the trend for kitschy Russian and Soviet souvenirs abroad appears to be as popular as ever, bringing vendors a pretty penny. Selling souvenirs on online marketplaces such as eBay and Etsy can yield a […]
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[“Brand Putin: Russia’s president still in fashion 15 years on” – BBC News – Sarah Rainsford – Moscow, March 27, 2015] The BBC examines Russia President Vladimir Putin’s personal notoriety and power as political symbol. Fifteen years ago, Vladimir Putin was elected promising to make Russia strong again: a country its citizens could be proud of and that the world would respect. * […]
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[“Russia’s rich forego some luxuries but still back Putin” – Reuters – Elizabeth Piper – March 29, 2015] Reuters covers the reactions among Russia’s elite to economic changes such as Western sanctions, a falling ruble, oil price losses and other disruptions. … the enforced modesty has not yet driven the super wealthy out of Russia or against President Vladimir Putin, who […]
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For reasons that are far beyond my ability to explain, Russia is a place that attracts clichés in much the same way that a bright flame attracts moths. Having always found the place confusing, contradictory, and vaguely mysterious, Westerners have settled upon a few choice quotes that supposedly summarize Russia in its entirety. Even today, with the welcome rise of […]
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Is the worst over for Russia? Some brave investors seem to think so and are piling back into its markets. The oil-dependent economy is on track for a deep recession this year, and there’s a risk that the West may impose more sanctions over Ukraine. http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/30/investing/russia-markets-time-to-buy/index.html
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[“Predicting the Future With Russia’s Economic Nostradamus. (Mikhail Dmitriyev)” – The Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – March 18, 2015] The Moscow Times talks with former Putin Deputy Economy Minister Mikhail Dmitriyev about unfolding changes in the Russian economy, as well as the interaction between foreign and military policy, economic pressures, political trends and public attitudes towards the Russian government and the […]
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[“Ruble gain brings hope to Russian economy” – AFP – March 30, 2015] AFP covers variations in the value of the ruble amidst Russia’s ongoing economic crisis. It has been a torrid time of late for the Russian economy, as the fallout from Ukraine and tumbling oil prices have plunged the country into financial crisis. However, an unexpected recent rebound by […]
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(PONARS Eurasia – ponarseurasia.org – Mark Kramer, Director, Cold War Studies Program, and Senior Fellow, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University – March 11, 2015 – article also appeared at ponarseurasia.org/article/sanctions-and-regime-survival) Some debates never die; they just get replayed. After the Soviet Army invaded Afghanistan in late December 1979, the United States imposed economic sanctions against the USSR. The Russian Federation since […]
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Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited several Latin American nations this week to seek trade opportunities that could offset US efforts to puncture Russia’s economy. Russia took its global charm offensive to Latin America this week, as the Kremlin seeks to counter Western sanctions over its policies in eastern Ukraine and Crimea. … http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2015/0326/Russia-heads-to-America-s-backyard-to-find-salve-for-sanctions
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – March 27, 2015) Russians increasingly believe in an economic system founded on government planning rather than the free market, a poll by the independent Levada Center showed. Fifty-five percent of respondents said that a country’s economic system should be based on “government planning and allocation,” the pollster said in a report this week. On the other […]
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MOSCOW, March 26. /TASS/. Russian Labor and Social Protection Ministry’s idea of stripping employed senior citizens whose annual remuneration is one million roubles (about $16,500) or more of their old age security pension has sparked a debate in Russian society. In the context of Russia’s modern realities one million roubles is a sum enough to buy an average class car, […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Delphine d’Amora – March 27, 2015) The cost of medicine is rising fast in Russia, hitting consumers and challenging a government that has made its reputation as a bulwark of social stability. The ruble’s fall of nearly 40 percent to the U.S. dollar and 22 percent to the euro since the beginning of 2014 has sent […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Evgenia Pismennaya and Ilya Arkhipov – March 25, 2015) It was Dec. 16 — the day Russian traders would later christen Black Tuesday — and the ruble was in a freefall. “Intervene! Intervene!” a central bank official shouted. Governor Elvira Nabiullina watched the currency on her tablet screen react to her emergency rate increase. No, she said, […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Mark Adomanis in Philadelphia- March 26, 2015) How is Russia’s economy doing right now? Pretty clearly, the answer is “not very well.” 2014 was the first year since Putin came to power in which, due to a combination of spiking inflation, plummeting oil prices and flat-lining growth, the average real disposable income actually shrank. […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – March 26, 2015) Russians sold more foreign currency than they bought in January for the first time in two years, the Central Bank said Wednesday, in a sign that last year’s panic over the ruble has subsided. The Russian currency went into meltdown in December as a months-long devaluation prompted by Western sanctions and oil […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber – March 26, 2015) Teachers’ salaries have been withheld en masse in Murmansk as Russia’s economic crisis bears down on the regional budget, news site FlashNord reported Wednesday. The Murmansk branch of Russia’s national teachers’ union filed a complaint with regional governor Marina Kovtun, claiming that a large number of employees of Murmansk’s […]
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MOSCOW. March 25 (Interfax) – Ruble strengthening in excess of that assumed in the 2015 budget would lead to both lower revenue and lower spending, meaning that the net impact on the budget will be neutral, First Deputy Finance Minister Tatyana Nesterenko said. “The ruble exchange rate and the price of oil [assumed in the budget] are forecasts calculated as […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anna Dolgov – March 24, 2015) Health care workers in central Russia threatened to stage a hunger strike starting Monday to protest what they described as “repercussions” against co-workers who demanded better working conditions and higher salaries at previous protests, media reports said. The hunger strike, planned in Ufa, the capital of Russia’s republic of Bashkortostan, […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Andrey Biryukov, Anna Andrianova – March 26, 2015) Russia laid out the terms of a draft law to offer amnesty on repatriating capital, promising new incentives and legal protections to aid an economy starved of investment by sanctions over Ukraine. The bill won’t require the return of assets to Russian territory, demanding only their registration in […]
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For investors, business owners and everybody else with an interest or involvement in the Russian economy, this is now a period of waiting; waiting to see whether the relatively good start to 2015 for the ruble, investment returns and some segments of the economy mean that we can all breathe a huge sigh of relief that the predictions of doom and gloom in late 2014 have not materialized, or whether this is just the eye of the storm and another battering […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Mark Adomanis in Philadelphia – March 25, 2015) As the Soviet Union collapsed in both Russia and Ukraine, small groups of extremely clever and even more ruthless men “privatized” (or if you prefer less exalted language “stole”) all of the prize industrial assets. Virtually overnight, these formerly mid-ranking bureaucrats and functionaries became billionaires, some […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Timothy Ash, Head of EM Research, ICBC-Standard Bank, London – March 23, 2015) “Mr Putin: Operative in the Kremlin”, new and expanded, by Fiona Hill and Clifford G. Gaddy, Brookings Institute Press, Washington, 2015. This book is sold as a biography, but if you want a standard chronological recap of the life of Vladimir Putin […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – March 23, 2015) Russia needs a resolution to the conflict with the West over Ukraine now because its power has probably hit its post-Soviet peak. The US can afford to do nothing, and that is probably its best strategy – but it comes at the possible cost of the destruction of […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Matthew A. Winkler – March 20, 2015) Matthew Winkler, editor-in-chief emeritus of Bloomberg News, writes about markets. [Charts here bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-20/russia-rebounds-despite-sanctions] Sanctions meant to punish Russia for snatching Crimea from Ukraine one year ago were supposed to hurt Russian business. And they did. Russian stocks, bonds and commodities had the worst performance in 2014 of those in […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Spinella – March 23, 2015) Eighty-three percent of Russians say they’re not interested in moving anywhere outside of the former Soviet Union, the independent Levada Center pollster revealed, noting that this represented the highest such figure since the end of the Soviet era. Another 81 percent of respondents said they never even think about the […]
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[“U.S. faces meager options for further Russia energy sanctions” – Reuters – Timothy Gardner – March 23, 2015] Reuters examines Western sanctions on Russia, including some of the remaining options for energy-related sanctions. Energy is the economic lifeblood of Russia, which vies with the United States and Saudi Arabia to be the world’s top oil producer …the sector is the main target of […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – March 19, 2015) March will be a tense month as Russia has decided to poke its finger in Nato’s eye again. Russia’s Armed Forces are holding for the first time Arctic military exercises, which kicked off on March 16 and will last through March 21. The exercises are massive. The […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Lyubov Pronina, Krystof Chamonikolas – March 17, 2015) The jockeying has begun in Ukraine’s debt restructuring talks. The government’s notes slid below 42 cents on the dollar on Tuesday as Russia said it wouldn’t budge on being paid back a $3 billion loan in full on time and the Financial Times reported Franklin Templeton won’t accept a […]
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Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday it was still too soon to feel confident about the country’s economy, although his ministers said the worst is over. Speaking to a conference of Russian businessmen, Putin said the central bank’s main interest rate, now at 14 percent, remains high but that the level was warranted by the situation. … […]
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The Kaluga region, an hour’s drive southwest of Moscow, has become a haven for investors. International giants in industries ranging from automotive to pharmaceutical have built plants, trained and employed thousands of locals, and turned a once-depressed region heavily dependent on federal subsidies into a donor to the national budget. … http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/qa-drawing-foreign-firms-to-russia/517581.html
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(Interfax – Volgograd, March 17, 2015) The number of social labour conflicts in the Russian Federation has increased in the past eight months, deputy chairman of the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Russia Yevgeniy Makarov said on Tuesday [17 March]. “The previous week was one of the most difficult ones. Conflicts were recorded in every federal district. There were […]
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