NEWSLINK The National Interest: How Russia Plans to Save Its Massive Military Buildup. “For those who expected that sanctions and the fall in energy prices would tame the bear’s claws, think again.”

Russian Soldiers Marching

“For those who expected that sanctions and the fall in energy prices would tame the bear’s claws, think again.” The announcement that Russia is planning to lift its self-imposed ban on selling the advanced S-300 air defense system to Iran gives us an important insight into how Moscow plans to move ahead with its ambitious plans to modernize and reequip […]

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How Much Power Will Russia’s S-300 Missile Defense Systems Give Iran?

Middle East Map

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Matthew Bodner – April 15, 2015) Moscow’s decision to lift its unilateral ban on exporting advanced S-300 air defense system to Iran will boost the Islamic republic’s air defense capabilities, but their military impact depends on the outcome of ongoing negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. The air defense systems, built by Russia’s largest defense contractor […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2015-#74 table of contents with links :: Johnson’s Russia List – Tuesday PM, April 14, 2015

Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2015-#74 :: Tuesday PM 14 April 2015 A project sponsored through the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL on Facebook: facebook.com/russialist JRL on Twitter: twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi Support JRL: russialist.org/funding.php  Ukraine 1. Reuters: War and poverty bring doubt to heartland of Ukraine’s pro-Europe revolt. 2. The Independent (UK): Ukraine crisis: After […]

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Normandy Quartet calls for withdrawal of artillery and heavy weapons below 100mm in Donbass

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Interfax – April 14, 2015) Foreign ministers from the Normandy Quartet countries have called on the trilateral Contact Group for Ukraine to agree a schedule for the withdrawal of weapons below a 100 mm caliber from the line of contact in Donbass, the chair of the Normandy format’s ministerial meeting in Berlin said in a statement. “We furthermore call for […]

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[International Law and Crimea Annexation] Re: 2015-#72-Johnson’s Russia List/#45. Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Senior Russian judge claims legal justification for Crimea annexation.

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

[DJ: This individual is active in business in Kyiv and Moscow and requests anonymity] Subject: Re: 2015-#72-Johnson’s Russia List/#45. Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Senior Russian judge claims legal justification for Crimea annexation. (Valeriy Zorkin) Date: Mon, 13 Apr 2015 From: Anonymous 1. I am a putinista, albeit not a passionate/blind one. 2. I am a doctor and a professor of international law. […]

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NEWSLINK AFP: More gloom ahead for Moscow and former Soviet region, says IMF

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday predicted more pain for the Russian economy and gloom around the ex-Soviet region despite positive noises from Moscow that the worst of the crisis might be over. Russia’s economy is expected to shrink by 3.8 percent this year as sanctions imposed by the West over the conflict in Ukraine and low oil prices push […]

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NEWSLINK Time: Why Ukraine Still Can’t Break Ties With Russian ‘Aggressor State’

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

… With most of its scarce resources focused on fighting Russia’s proxies in the east, Ukraine’s leaders have watched their economy fall off a cliff, surviving only by the grace of massive loans from Western institutions like the International Monetary Fund, which approved another $17.5 billion last month to be disbursed over the next four years. But that assistance has […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2015-#73 table of contents with links :: Johnson’s Russia List – Tuesday AM, April 14, 2015

Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2015-#73 :: Tuesday AM 14 April 2015 A project sponsored through the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL on Facebook: facebook.com/russialist JRL on Twitter: twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi Support JRL: russialist.org/funding.php  Russia 1. Moscow Times: Swedish Admiral Admits ‘Russian Submarine’ Was Actually Civilian Boat. 2. Business New Europe: Graham Stack, The rise […]

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NEWSLINK New York Times: Rival Factions in Ukraine Are Urged to Withdraw Heavy Weapons

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Warring parties in Ukraine should withdraw heavy weapons — including tanks, armored vehicles, mortars and artillery — in order to comply with the shaky cease-fire that has held in eastern Ukraine since late February, the German foreign minister said early Tuesday. The call from the minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, came after talks with his counterparts from France, Russia and Ukraine aimed […]

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NEWSLINK Reuters: War and poverty bring doubt to heartland of Ukraine’s pro-Europe revolt

File Photo of Street in Lviv

When Ukrainians toppled a pro-Russian president last year, nowhere was the euphoria greater than in Lviv, a short drive from the EU border, where people have dreamt for generations of escaping Moscow’s orbit to join the West. More than a year of war and economic collapse later, nowhere else has the disillusionment been felt more harshly.

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Putin’s Mideast Gains Trump $27 Billion Loss From Iran Agreement

Middle East Map

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Henry Meyer, Stephen Bierman – April 14, 2015) As Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, he’s willing to take an economic hit to expand his political influence. He’s taking the same approach with Iran. Lifting sanctions and allowing Iranian oil onto global markets would threaten to deepen the plunge in crude […]

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Hillary Clinton as U.S. President ‘Wouldn’t Fix’ Russia-U.S. Relationship

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Ivan Nechepurenko – April 14, 2015) Should Hillary Clinton – who once compared Russian President Vladimir Putin to Adolf Hitler – become the next U.S. president, no improvement should be expected in U.S.-Russian relations, political analysts said Monday. Relations between the two countries suffer as the result of a fundamental conflict in which Russia is […]

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Russian Investigators Have Difficulty Accessing Nemtsov Murder Suspects in Chechnya

Boris Nemtsov file photo

(Eurasia Daily Monitor – Volume 12, Issue 68 – Jamestown Foundation – jamestown.org – Valery Dzutsev – April 13, 2015) Six weeks after the assassination of prominent Russian opposition figure Boris Nemtsov near the Kremlin in Moscow, authorities have failed to present a coherent explanation for the crime. As one observer has pointed out: “It looks like the Kremlin has […]

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Russia Sees Further Drop in Capital Outflows as Economy Adjusts

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Olga Tanas, Anna Andrianova – April 14, 2015) Russian capital outflows will slow further as bonds and the ruble stage a comeback following a sell-off last year, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. Net outflows will slow to $15 billion in the second quarter after a “sharp decline” in the previous three months, bringing the total for […]

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No decision yet on new contract for S-300 missiles for Iran – Kremlin

Middle East Map

MOSCOW. April 14 (Interfax) – The Kremlin has acknowledged the absence of any legal restrictions for supplying S-300 air defense missile systems to Iran now that the president has signed the relevant decree. “The question of contracts, to sign or not sign [new ones], is one that will be decided or discussed by the immediate participants of the deal, if […]

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Interfax: Fall of Russian economy less than expected – Medvedev

Dmitri Medvedev file photo

MOSCOW. April 14 (Interfax) – The Russian economy for January-February 2015 declined 1.9% year-on-year and the reduction was less than was forecast, Russian Prime Ministry Dmitry Medvedev said at an expanded meeting of the Finance Ministry on Tuesday in Moscow. “At the start of the year, we noted a certain decline of the economy. In January-February it was 1.9%, according […]

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David Hayter: Review of Clifford Gaddy’s presentation on “Operative in the Kremlin” Richmond, VA

Vladimir Putin file photo with VOA logo; screen shot from video still

Subject: Review of Clifford Gaddy’s presentation on “Operative in the Kremlin” Richmond, VA Date: Mon, 13 Apr 2015 From: David Hayter <hayterd@mymail.vcu.edu> Last week I attended a presentation by Clifford Gaddy on his book on Putin, and did a short write-up of it. David Hayter VCU Globe Assistant Global Education Office Virginia Commonwealth University Richmond, Virginia On April 8, 2015 […]

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The rise and fall of the Russian oligarchy; Newly declassified U.S. documents, released to bne IntelliNews, show how Vladimir Putin’s candidacy was a compromise after a fierce battle between pro-US oligarchs and pro-state conservatives

Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Graham Stack – April 14, 2015) Fifteen years after the then unknown Vladimir Putin took over the Russian presidency, analysts still puzzle over how he arrived in the position. Newly declassified documents from President Bill Clinton’s administration, released to bne IntelliNews, show how Putin’s candidacy was a compromise after a fierce battle for power […]

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Swedish Admiral Admits ‘Russian Submarine’ Was Actually Civilian Boat

Map of Sweden and Environs

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Spinella – April 14, 2015) A photo that a retired Swedish naval officer said showed a Russian submarine in Swedish waters last autumn was actually of a much smaller civilian boat, a Swedish admiral told his country’s media Monday. “Analysis revealed that the photograph taken in Stockholm’s inner archipelago was of a smaller boat,” […]

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Why Russia watchers should listen to Glenn Greenwald

Mercator Projection Satellite Image of Earth

(opendemocracy.net – Philip Evans, Associate Editor at oDR – April 2, 2015) Elites throughout the former Soviet Union are cracking down on dissent. But before Russia watchers start criticising the region’s repressive governments, they should first engage with the criticism, which has long been levelled at them. From Minsk to Astana, elites throughout the former Soviet Union are clamping down on dissent as […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2015-#72 table of contents with links :: Johnson’s Russia List – Monday, April 13, 2015

Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2015-#72 :: Monday 13 April 2015 A project sponsored through the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL on Facebook: facebook.com/russialist JRL on Twitter: twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi Support JRL: russialist.org/funding.php  RUSSIA 1. www.rt.com: Patriarch Kirill addresses Russian Orthodox believers on Easter Sunday. 2. Interfax: Great feast of Easter brings joy and hope […]

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“Croneyburger please, easy on the austerity”: Inside Russia’s fast-food farce

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Nick Allen in Berlin – April 13, 2015) The trademark meat dish could perhaps be called “The director’s cut”: Two prolific Russian film directors recently sought a $19mn state credit from President Vladimir Putin to launch an unlikely new national fast-food chain as a counterweight to McDonald’s and other foreign operators. And they got […]

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Russian Capital Flight Slows to $32.6 Billion in First Quarter

Cash, Calculator, Pen

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – April 10, 2015) Net capital outflow from Russia was $32.6 billion in the first quarter of the year, down from $72.9 billion in the previous three months, suggesting that panic over Russia’s economic crisis has receded, data published this week by the Central Bank showed. Capital flight from Russia nearly tripled in 2014 from the […]

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Interfax: Great feast of Easter brings joy and hope to millions of Christians – Putin

File Photo of Russian Orthodox Church at Kremlin, adapted from defense.gov Image

Moscow, April 13, Interfax – President Vladimir Putin has greeted Orthodox Christians and all Russian citizens celebrating Easter, the Kremlin press service reports. “The great feast of Easter brings joy and hope to millions of believers, introduces them to the sources of spirituality and traditions of forefathers,” the presidential message says. “The Russian Orthodox Church plays an enormous constructive role […]

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NEWSWATCH AUDIO National Public Radio: New START Nuke Deal With Russia May Be Aging – But It’s Not Over

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

NPR covers U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control and assessments of New START. ‘ [click here for transcript – click here for article – audio follows below] Five years ago, another big nuclear deal was being signed … known as the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) … its aim … simple: to limit the number of nuclear weapons the United States and Russia have pointed at […]

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NEWSLINK Euromaidan Press/Colta.ru: The country of triumphant resentment: Yampolskiy on Russia’s loss of reality

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

One of the most striking developments in Russian society has been the explosive growth of aggression simultaneously with a refusal to accept reality, burying it under ideological fictions. This phenomenon cannot be easily explained. It is often chalked up to the unprecedented amounts of television propaganda. While official propaganda explains a lot, it does not explain everything. Not every society […]

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S&P downgrades Ukraine to ‘CC’, says default ‘virtually inevitable’

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews – April 13, 2015) Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has downgraded Ukraine’s sovereign credit rating from ‘CCC-‘ to ‘CC’, three levels above default, with a negative outlook. S&P said it views a Ukrainian default as “virtually inevitable”, with Ukraine’s sovereign debt to reach 93% of GDP in 2015. “The negative outlook reflects […]

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Almost all net capital outflow from Russia in Q1 due to debt payments – CBR

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

MOSCOW. April 13 (Interfax) – The private sector net capital outflow from Russia of $32.6 billion in the first quarter of 2015 was almost completely due to payments on the foreign debt of the private sector, which amounted to $29.8 billion, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) said in comments released by its press service. Another $2.9 billion of the […]

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Millions of Russians Edge Toward Poverty as Economic Pressure Mounts

File Photo of Older Russian Woman Shopping in Grocery Store

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – April 13, 2015) Clutching two plastic bags full of clothes she had just collected from a charity center in central Moscow, Svetlana Burkutskaya said that rising prices were making it harder for her to find enough money to put food on the table for her three school-age children. “There is not sufficient […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2015-#71 table of contents with links :: Johnson’s Russia List – Sunday, April 12, 2015

Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2015-#71 :: Sunday 12 April 2015 A project sponsored through the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL on Facebook: facebook.com/russialist JRL on Twitter: twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi Support JRL: russialist.org/funding.php  1. Carnegie Moscow Center: Dmitri Trenin, From Greater Europe to Greater Asia? The Sino-Russian Entente. 2. Financial Times: Kathrin Hille, What Russians […]

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Former U.S. Ambassador: Putin Has No Interest in Resolving Ukraine Conflict

Ambassador Mike McFaul file photo

(Voice of America – voanews.com – April 10, 2015) Former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul tells VOA that Russian President Vladimir Putin has no interest in resolving the conflict in Ukraine because it serves his interest. McFaul said Thursday that Putin likes the open-ended, low grade military confrontation in the former Soviet republic because it works to undermine the government in Kyiv. The […]

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Chart – Putin ratings defy grim economic outlook

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Henry Kirby in London – April 10, 2015 – bne.eu/content/story/bnechart-putin-ratings-defy-grim-economic-outlook) 25 years after Ronald Reagan left the White House, it would seem that Russia has its own ‘Teflon President’ in Vladimir Putin. The Russian president’s consistently high ratings show that his and Reagan’s similarities go beyond a Hollywood penchant for horse riding and rifle-toting, […]

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NEWSLINK ReadRussia: Russians Think Seizing Crimea Will Pay off. Here’s a hint: it won’t.

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“Crimea is ours!” has become a rallying cry for Russian nationalists overjoyed at the “return” of land which they have always thought was part of Russia. And it wasn’t just nationalists. Apparently, Crimea’s entry into the Russian Federation struck a nerve among most ordinary Russians. Judging by opinion polls somewhere between 70 and 80% of total population expressed approval. http://readrussia.com/2015/04/09/russians-think-seizing-crimea-will-pay-off/

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NEWSLINK Carnegie Moscow: Corrupting Civil Society in Post- Maidan Ukraine?

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

Ukrainian civil society has become something of a paradox over the past year. Following former President Yanukovych’s ouster in February of 2014, civil society organizations successfully guided the country through a difficult transfer of power. From February to April 2014, it was the Maidan self-defense groups that fought back separatist uprisings and a Russian-backed invasion, and maintained order in Ukrainian […]

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NEWSWATCH Carnegie Moscow: From Greater Europe to Greater Asia? The Sino-Russian Entente

Eurasia Map

Carnegie Moscow’s Dmitri Trenin considers shifting relations between Russia and China amidst tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine.  He argues that, regardless of how close Russia gets with China, a rupture between Russia and the West could mean Russia is more energetic at seeking stronger connections beyond the West generally, especially in Asia. The rupture between Russia and […]

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NEWSLINK Moscow Times: Is the Iran Deal Good or Bad News for Russia?

Middle East Map

It is far too early to assume last week’s framework agreement between Iran and the six world powers will lead to a permanent deal governing how Iran develops its nuclear industry. But while all sides acknowledge the difficulties still to be tackled, there is a very good chance that a permanent deal may be put in place in the summer and sanctions against the country may start to unwind from later this year […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2015-#70 table of contents with links :: Johnson’s Russia List – Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2015-#70 :: Wednesday 8 April 2015 A project sponsored through the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL on Facebook: facebook.com/russialist JRL on Twitter: twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi Support JRL: russialist.org/funding.php  DJ: There may be no JRLs the next few days. Lots of reading for you to catch up on. I hope you […]

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Russia Nervously Eyes the U.S.-Iran Deal

Middle East Map

(stratfor.com – Geopolitical Weekly – Reva Bhalla – April 7, 2015) When a group of weary diplomats announced a framework for an Iranian nuclear accord last week in Lausanne, there was one diplomat in the mix whose feigned enthusiasm was hard to miss. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov left the talks at their most critical point March 30, much to the […]

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Fight Over Ukraine Darkens Future of Russia-U.S. Nuclear Arms Control

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Matthew Bodner – April 8, 2015) The rhetoric of the Ukraine crisis has amplified long-standing apprehensions in Moscow and Washington and halted progress on arms control for the time being. Five years after the United States and Russia signed the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty, the spirit in which it was signed is dead. […]

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Russian State Agency Accused of Funding Opposition Media

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anna Dolgov – April 8, 2015) Russia’s Investigative Committee has reportedly demanded explanations about government subsidies to media that support opposition positions after a pro-Kremlin daily accused a government agency of supporting publications that pursue “clearly anti-state” policies. The report by the pro-government newspaper Izvestia on Tuesday named some of Russia’s best-known remaining independent-minded media […]

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Russia Cannot Become a Democracy in Its Current Borders, Walesa Says

Russia Regions Map

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, April 8, 2015) Just as the notion of a liberal Soviet Union proved to be a contradiction in terms, so too the Russian Federation in its current borders cannot become a democracy, according to Lech Walesa. It must first disintegrate and then some parts of it might be able to come back […]

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Moscow Times: Kremlin Reliance on the Russian Orthodox Church May Backfire, Analysts Say

File Photo of Russian Orthodox Church at Kremlin, adapted from defense.gov Image

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Ivan Nechepurenko – April 8, 2015) While the Russian federal government’s burgeoning reliance on the Russian Orthodox Church is a tool aimed at consolidating society, in using it the authorities risk giving the clergy too much power, an issue that may eventually backfire against the Kremlin, experts told The Moscow Times on Tuesday. Recent public […]

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RIA Novosti: Russian ex-minister [Kudrin] says turned down government job offers over “half-hearted” reforms

Alexei Kudrin file photo

(RIA Novosti – April 7, 2015) Aleksey Kudrin, Russia’s finance minister from 2000 to 2011, has said he still receives offers to return to the government but has turned them down because of “half-hearted” reforms, RIA Novosti (part of the state-owned International News Agency Rossiya Segodnya) reported on 7 April. “My leaving the government, as is well-known, was related to […]

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World Bank warns of looming two-year recession in Russia

World Bank Building

(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH – April 8, 2015) A report released by the World Bank projects no economic growth in Russia either in 2015 or 2016. This forecast is at odds with the figures from the Russian Ministry of the Economy, which predicts an economic growth of 2.3 percent as early as in 2016. […]

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Ulyukayev: GDP decline won’t exceed 3% in 2015; industrial output to drop 1%-1.5%

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

MOSCOW. April 8 (Interfax) – The decline in Russia’s GDP in 2015 will not exceed 3%, industrial production will drop 1%-1.5%, and investment in fixed assets will fall 11%, Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said. “We assume that this year under the most conservative estimate of the oil market situation – $50 per barrel – we will have a decline […]

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Moscow Times: Ruble Hits New 2015 Highs in World’s Best Currency Rebound

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – April 8, 2015) The Russian currency strengthened rapidly Wednesday as a recent rally driven by greater confidence in the ruble and easing international tensions overpowered the downward pressure of a sliding oil price. The ruble jumped over 3 percent in morning trading to 53.4 against the U.S. dollar before weakening slightly to […]

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Former Finance Minister Slams Russian Government on Corruption

Hand Pulling Cash from Envelope

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – April 8, 2015) While the Russian government is trying to involve itself in more economic spheres, the state is failing to perform its basic functions and corruption has swelled to levels “unimaginable” during the heydays of previous administrations, the head of Russia’s second-largest bank said at an international conference on economic development conference on Tuesday. […]

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Russia launches new version of president’s website

Vladimir Putin file photo with VOA logo; screen shot from video still

MOSCOW. April 8 (Interfax) – A new version of the Russian president’s website launched on Wednesday took a year to develop within the current budget, no extra funds were allocated, the Kremlin said. “An updated version of the official website of the Russian president has been opened. The previous version was launched more than five years ago, in September 2009. […]

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Russian store assistants smiling more, says customer service report

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Marina Obrazkova, RBTH – April 7, 2015) Russia has come 15th out of 69 countries for the friendliness of its customer service, according to data from the Smiling Report, an annual evaluation of how warmly shoppers are greeted around the world. Analysts and industry insiders say that Russia’s approach to customer service has drastically changed in […]

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