(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews – April 22, 2015) Western sanctions and low oil prices caused Russia’s economy to shrink by 2% in the first three months of the year, the first time it contracted since 2009, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said in Moscow on April 21 as he presented the government’s annual report to parliament. The country faced […]
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Spread across the frozen whiteness of the Russian Arctic, the ambitious $27 billion Yamal gas megaproject aims to defy both the extreme temperatures and the Ukraine crisis impacting its funding. Some 2,500 kilometres (1,600 miles) northeast of Moscow, the Yamal site — a joint venture by Russia’s Novatek, France’s Total and China’s CNPC — is eventually meant be one of […]
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Faced with the triple whammy of plunging oil prices, currency volatility and Western sanctions, there’s no dearth of challenges for Russia’s ailing economy, but Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said what hurts most is the scarcity of financing for new investments. “The shortness of financing for new investments is where the Russian economy is being hit in the most important […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews – April 16, 2015) In an anticipated display of defiance towards Russia’s Western critics, President Vladimir Putin on April 16 said his country is not to blame for the continuing conflict in Eastern Ukraine, has now weathered the worst of the sanctions storm, and can expect economic growth to resume in two […]
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[“American farmer among the winners in sanctions-hit Russia” – AP – James Ellingsworth – Apr. 1, 2015] AP examines the impact of Ukraine-related Western sanctions on Russia, such as increased prices for some farmers, instability in international projects, and evolving energy relations between Russia and China. The impact of sanctions, and a Russian embargo, on agriculture is apparently mixed. Russia’s ‘counter-sanctions’ ban on food imports […]
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[“Brand Putin: Russia’s president still in fashion 15 years on” – BBC News – Sarah Rainsford – Moscow, March 27, 2015] The BBC examines Russia President Vladimir Putin’s personal notoriety and power as political symbol. Fifteen years ago, Vladimir Putin was elected promising to make Russia strong again: a country its citizens could be proud of and that the world would respect. * […]
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[“Russia’s rich forego some luxuries but still back Putin” – Reuters – Elizabeth Piper – March 29, 2015] Reuters covers the reactions among Russia’s elite to economic changes such as Western sanctions, a falling ruble, oil price losses and other disruptions. … the enforced modesty has not yet driven the super wealthy out of Russia or against President Vladimir Putin, who […]
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Hundreds of kilometres below on Earth, their governments are locked in a standoff over Ukraine — but up in space, Russian cosmonauts and American astronauts are still working together side by side. The International Space Station (ISS) is one of the rare areas of US-Russian cooperation that has not been hit by the Ukraine crisis and in the latest show […]
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(PONARS Eurasia – ponarseurasia.org – Mark Kramer, Director, Cold War Studies Program, and Senior Fellow, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University – March 11, 2015 – article also appeared at ponarseurasia.org/article/sanctions-and-regime-survival) Some debates never die; they just get replayed. After the Soviet Army invaded Afghanistan in late December 1979, the United States imposed economic sanctions against the USSR. The Russian Federation since […]
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Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited several Latin American nations this week to seek trade opportunities that could offset US efforts to puncture Russia’s economy. Russia took its global charm offensive to Latin America this week, as the Kremlin seeks to counter Western sanctions over its policies in eastern Ukraine and Crimea. … http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2015/0326/Russia-heads-to-America-s-backyard-to-find-salve-for-sanctions
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When it comes to inflicting economic pain on Russia, the Kremlin may be doing a better job than Western sanctions. Just don’t tell that to the Russian people, who overwhelmingly blame the West for a deepening recession that has parts of central Moscow starting to look like a ghost town. Prices are soaring. The ruble is dropping. And Russian living […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – March 23, 2015) Russia needs a resolution to the conflict with the West over Ukraine now because its power has probably hit its post-Soviet peak. The US can afford to do nothing, and that is probably its best strategy – but it comes at the possible cost of the destruction of […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Matthew A. Winkler – March 20, 2015) Matthew Winkler, editor-in-chief emeritus of Bloomberg News, writes about markets. [Charts here bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-20/russia-rebounds-despite-sanctions] Sanctions meant to punish Russia for snatching Crimea from Ukraine one year ago were supposed to hurt Russian business. And they did. Russian stocks, bonds and commodities had the worst performance in 2014 of those in […]
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[“U.S. faces meager options for further Russia energy sanctions” – Reuters – Timothy Gardner – March 23, 2015] Reuters examines Western sanctions on Russia, including some of the remaining options for energy-related sanctions. Energy is the economic lifeblood of Russia, which vies with the United States and Saudi Arabia to be the world’s top oil producer …the sector is the main target of […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – March 19, 2015) March will be a tense month as Russia has decided to poke its finger in Nato’s eye again. Russia’s Armed Forces are holding for the first time Arctic military exercises, which kicked off on March 16 and will last through March 21. The exercises are massive. The […]
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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, March 17, 2015) The West does not understand Russia, but it does understand very well indeed Russia’s elites; and as a result, it has seriously miscalculated in its dealings with Moscow about Ukraine, according to Boris Kagarlitsky, who argues the elites are ready to capitulate in the face of sanctions but the […]
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(opendemocracy.net – Kirill Rodionov – March 9, 2015) Kirill Rodionov is an independent journalist. From 2008 to 2013, he was a Research Fellow at the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Moscow. Follow him on Twitter: @k_rodionov In late January 2015, the Russian government adopted an anti-crisis programme. The plan includes a number of measures intended to provide sustainable development of […]
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Canada has spent the last year aggressively imposing sanctions on Russian and Ukrainian players with ties to the simmering conflict in eastern Ukraine, but experts say there’s no evidence that the penalties are having any political impact on the Putin government. …
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The Senate Foreign Relations Committee Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation Statement for the Record Russian Aggression against Ukraine and the West’s Policy Response Steven Pifer Senior Fellow, Center on the United States and Europe The Brookings Institution March 4, 2015 [Also appeared at foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/030415_Pifer_Testimony.pdf] Russian Aggression against Ukraine and the West’s Policy Response Introduction Mr. Chairman, Senator Shaheen, distinguished […]
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The White House Office of the Press Secretary For Immediate Release March 03, 2015 Notice — Continuation of the National Emergency with Respect to Ukraine On March 6, 2014, by Executive Order 13660, I declared a national emergency pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701-1706) to deal with the unusual and extraordinary threat to the national […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – March 4, 2015) U.S. President Barack Obama has issued an order to extend by one year a series of sanctions against Russia over its role in the Ukraine crisis, the White House said Tuesday. In a statement published on the White House website, Obama said he was extending U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia last March […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Henry Kirby in London – March 3, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/bnechart-russians-latest-reactions-ukraine-sanctions-and-putin] A series of recent polls by Russia’s Levada Center has cast an interesting light on major issues surrounding Russia, such as Russians’ views on the conflict in eastern Ukraine, the effects of continued Western-led sanctions, and the general popularity of the government. Ukraine […]
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(Interfax – February 25, 2015) Moscow, 25 February: Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev thinks that the aim of the Western sanctions is to put pressure on the development of Russia’s mineral resource base, while Russia’s dependence on oil and gas prices may pose a threat to its national security. “The aim of the sanctions is to put pressure on the […]
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(Interfax – February 24, 2015) The share of Russians acknowledging the ongoing economic crisis has grown to 71 percent, from 62 percent in January, the Public Opinion Foundation said. Some 14 percent of 1,500 respondents polled in 100 populated localities in 43 regions on February 14-15 claim they do not see any signs of a crisis (down from 20 percent […]
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[“Russia’s military budget may shrink 10 pct in 2015 – Rostec” – Reuters – Stanley Carvalho – Feb. 23, 2015] Reuters covers news that Russian defense spending might shrink this year, due to the impact of Ukraine-related sanctions. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov previously had said that 10 percent cuts to government spending would spare defense. But on Monday the head of […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Anna Andrianova – February 15, 2015) Russian households are bearing the brunt of the blowback from the crisis in Ukraine and a tailspin in oil prices, setting the stage for the biggest drop in consumption in more than two decades that will deepen the country’s recession. Crushed by a 44 percent slump in the ruble in the past […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – February 12, 2015) U.S. President Barack Obama has claimed the Kremlin’s role in the Ukraine crisis brought the Russian economy to its knees. So, if a peace accord is reached in Minsk on Wednesday will it reboot the Russian economy? Hopes are high that a gathering of Russian, French, German and Ukrainian […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – February 6, 2015) Despite dire economic forecasts, Russia will escape high unemployment and social unrest this year thanks to an exodus of migrant workers, clever politics and a flexible shadow economy, analysts said. Officials are braced for layoffs. Russia must “prepare for the fact that people will become unemployed,” Deputy Prime Minister […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Henry Kirby in London – February 6, 2015) [Chart here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/bnechart-russians-appear-blase-toward-sanctions] A recent poll by Russia’s Levada Center has shown that Western sanctions left scarcely more of an impression on Russians than their New Year holidays did. As the bne:Chart shows, when asked January 23-26 what they considered the most important event of the […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Yekaterina Sinelschikova, RBTH – January 30, 2015) Residents of Russian provinces outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg have started feeling the impact of the weak economy on their pocketbooks. Experts say that all social strata, rich and poor alike, are already beginning to suffer as a result of the economic crisis. Retirees and […]
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[“Inside’s Putin’s Head: The Crisis in Russia and Ukraine and Worst-Case Putin Scenarios” – Gordon M. Hahn – gordonhahn.com – January 31, 2015] Gordon Hahn considers the impact of the conflict in Ukraine and economic repercussions on the stability and viability of Russia’s Putin regime. The … Russian-NATO proxy war in Ukraine along with the Russian-Western economic cold war could destabilize Russia’s […]
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[“Morgan Stanley thinks Russia’s doomed” – BusinessInsider.com – Elena Holodny – January 30, 2015] Business Insider reports on Morgan Stanley’s pessimistic Russian economic forecast: Morgan Stanley has a short message for Russia: you’re doomed. This past week hasn’t been easy for the Russian economy: … Thursday … EU foreign ministers decided to extend … sanctions on Russia by six months. Additionally, the Central Bank slashed […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – January 29, 2015) Participants at a bne IntelliNews debate in London expressed frustration with the failure of Western sanctions over Ukraine to modify Russia’s behaviour so far, and some suggested it is time to try new tactics. “We are reinforcing all the bad traits in Russia,” said Erik Berglof, director of the Institute for […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anna Dolgov – January 30, 2015) A recent state poll asking Russians about their fears has laid bare a telling change in attitudes: more than double the number of respondents said they feared a nuclear war compared to two years ago. Russia’s deteriorating relations with the West and the economic turmoil that followed sanctions imposed […]
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(oilprice.com – Robert Berke – January 25, 2015) One of the greatest foreign policy blunders of the Obama Administration was the push by the U.S. for economic sanctions against Russia. That led to Russia fleeing into the arms of China for refuge. In response, Russia, Europe’s largest and most populated country, is now intent on moving its vast storehouse of […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – COMMENT: Peter Szopo of Erste Asset Management – January 20, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/comment-double-trouble-russia-2014-vs-2008] History, they say, does not repeat itself – it rhymes. Even if this were true, history’s rhymes are clunky at best. While Russia’s current crisis has obvious parallels with the turmoil in 2008, such as the drop in oil prices, […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews – January 20, 2015) If the average price of oil in 2015 is $60 then Russia’s economy will contract by 4.3% and the ruble will be RUB56.4 to the dollar, say analysts at Renaissance Capital in a note released on January 20 exploring different oil price scenarios. Oil prices have fallen from […]
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(Interfax – January 19, 2015) Almost two-thirds of Russian citizens (62 percent) think that the country is living through an economic crisis although it has no effect on their finances as of yet, the Public Opinion Foundation said. The crisis mostly manifests itself in Moscow (70 percent) and cities with a population of 50,000 to 250,000 (71 percent), said 1,500 […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – January 16, 2015) Most of Russia’s economy will be in the proverbial dustbin in 2015, except for the technology sector. The gadget-loving Russians have been driving the explosion of e-commerce in recent years, which is now starting to spill over into technological innovation and software development. Instead of the […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – January 16, 2015) With European growth faltering, and mounting fears of a total meltdown of the Russian economy that no-one wants, the European Union’s commitment to sanctions on Russia is wavering. At least eight EU countries are reported to be against renewing EU economic and financial sanctions when they […]
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[“Russia ‘may face chaos’ if extra sanctions imposed: Germany” – AFP – January 4, 2015] AFP covers a German official’s assessment of the potential impact of additional sanctions on Russia: Tougher sanctions may destabilise the situation further in Russia and plunge the country into chaos, German deputy chancellor Sigmar Gabriel warned … ‘Whoever wants that will provoke a much more dangerous situation […]
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(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, December 22, 2014) Russians living in the largest cities, the people who benefited the most from the oil-driven boom of the last decade, now feel the greatest concern about the impact on their lives of the economic crisis because they are better informed than those in smaller ones and rural areas, a […]
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(Interfax – December 8, 2014) Russians differ on whether Russia is currently in international isolation: 47 percent of the respondents surveyed by the Levada Center said they believe Russia is now in international isolation and 45 percent believe it is not. The poll, which surveys 1,600 respondents, was conducted in 134 populated areas of Russia on November 21-24. Over half […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Ivan Nechepurenko – December 5, 2014) President Vladimir Putin told the nation on Thursday that Russia’s ongoing clash with the West – which he compared to Hitler – was inevitable and will only make the country stronger by mobilizing its economy and society around common goals and traditional moral values. In his annual address at […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews – December 4, 2014) Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced a complete capital amnesty, allowing businesses to repatriate offshore funds without fear of the consequences. “We need to finally turn the ‘offshore page’ in the history of our economy and country,” Putin told the federal assembly in his annual address. “If someone […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Bryan MacDonald, special to RBTH – December 4, 2014) Sanctions, unilaterally imposed by western nations, are supposedly causing economic problems in Russia. Bryan MacDonald investigated whether these claims are true and found that ordinary Russians had mixed opinions. Reading some western media outlets, you’d think Russia’s economic sky has fallen in as a […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – December 4, 2014) President Vladimir Putin’s annual state of the union address on Thursday takes place at a time of economic pain and international isolation unprecedented during the Russian leader’s almost 15-year political dominance. More than 1,000 senior government officials will gather in the Kremlin to hear the keynote speech, listening for […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH – December 1, 2014) Russia’s overall losses due to Western sanctions over Ukraine amount to $40 billion, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has said. A further $90-100 billion will be lost because of the 30-percent drop in oil prices. According to Russian experts, rising inflation and a falling ruble could […]
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(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, December 2, 2014) Many in Ukraine and elsewhere think that falling oil prices or increased Western sanctions or more sensible people in his entourage will convince Vladimir Putin to change course and end his aggressive policies, but they are wrong because none of these things will affect Putin’s pursuit of his goals, […]
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ANOSINO (Moscow region). Dec 1 (Interfax) – Russia remains the main energy partner of the European Union and will wait for the EU to come out of the sanctions spiral, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Vasily Nebenzya said. “We are working on the assumption that there is no real alternative to mutual and equal cooperation between Russia and the EU. Russia […]
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