NEWSLINK Wall Street Journal: Russia Weathers Financial Risks but More Remain, Bank of Russia Says
Unpredictability of oil prices and ruble’s rate poses threats, as does a U.S. rate increase, bank’s report says
» Read moreCategory: Economy, Business, Investment, Trade
Business confidence in Russia falls but firms see economy improving
(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Henry Kirby in London – June 22, 2015) Russia has fallen from the “positive” into the “neutral” expectations range in a Europe-wide study measuring business confidence of companies operating there. Russia’s score in the Association of European Businesses’ AEB-GfK Index dropped by 9 points from 115 in 2014 to 106 this year, out of […]
» Read moreRussia’s recovery faces a reality check
(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory – June 22, 2015) After a relatively positive performance for Russia’s economy in the first quarter, the second quarter has brought more of a reality check, with sharply lower numbers across many categories reported in April and May. The preliminary GDP estimate for April shows a contraction of 4.2% year […]
» Read morePutin Offers Little Change at Russia’s Top Economic Forum
(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Ivan Nechepurenko and Peter Hobson – ST. PETERSBURG, June 22, 2015) More than a year into an economic firestorm that is pushing Russia into its first recession in six years, Russia’s flagship economic forum in St. Petersburg was titled “Time to Act.” With Western sanctions over Ukraine and fallen oil prices battering the economy, thousands […]
» Read moreNEWSLINK Reuters: After midnight in the library, Putin sets out his world view
It was two minutes before midnight when Russian President Vladimir Putin finally entered the meeting room in the Boris Yeltsin Presidential Library, more than three hours late, to be interviewed by a dozen exhausted journalists. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/20/us-russia-putin-idUSKBN0P00JG20150620
» Read moreRussia’s Middle Class Won’t Return to Pre-Crisis Spending – Report
(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Sam Skove – June 19, 2015) Russia’s middle class is likely to continue to spend less even after the country’s economy recovers from its current crisis, a report said Thursday, in a trend that threatens to disrupt a once-key driver of Russian economic growth. Russia’s economic crisis, triggered by low oil prices and Western sanctions […]
» Read moreThe long decline in Russia’s international reserves has stopped
(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Heli Simola of Bank of Finland – June 18, 2015) [Charts here bne.eu/content/story/comment-long-decline-russias-international-reserves-has-stopped] Russia’s international reserves have declined substantially, by around $150bn, since the start of 2014. However, during the second quarter of this year the level of reserves has been relatively stable, fluctuating at around $350bn-360bn. The recent stabilization has been supported by […]
» Read moreEarly Election Would Benefit Putin, Not Russia
(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – June 18, 2015) Russia’s former finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, came up with an interesting idea for turning Russia’s recent economic woes to the country’s advantage: moving up the scheduled 2017 presidential election. The problem with this suggestion — which may have been floated as a trial balloon with the Kremlin’s approval — is […]
» Read moreInterfax: Russia basically contented with hydrocarbon prices, says Putin
(Interfax – June 18, 2015) Current prices on the hydrocarbon market could stay at this level for the next one or two years; this affects the ruble exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and the euro, and the Russian government is contented with this, Russian President Vladimir Putin said. “It’s roughly clear how the hydrocarbon market is going to develop, […]
» Read moreKremlin Weighs Early Presidential Vote as Economic Worries Mount
(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Ott Ummelas, Henry Meyer – June 18, 2015) The Kremlin said experts will study the idea of calling early presidential elections, a move that could give Vladimir Putin a fresh term while his approval rating remains near a record high. “This is a new proposal,” Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, told reporters on a conference call just […]
» Read moreLack of Action Questions Forum’s Reform Agenda
(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Ivan Nechepurenko – ST. PETERSBURG – June 19, 2015) Amid the grandiose, ambitious slogans of this year’s International Economic Forum, which opened Thursday featuring topics ranging from building efficiency in essential state-owned enterprises to making Russian jurisdiction “more comfortable for business,” the need to shift from defining problems to acting on them loomed large across […]
» Read moreRussia and Ukraine ‘Despair Index’ scores rise after turbulent year
(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Henry Kirby in London – June 18, 2015) [bne Chart here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/bnechart-russia-and-ukraine-despair-index-scores-rise-after-turbulent-year] Ukraine and Russia’s ‘Despair Index’ scores – a bne IntelliNews economic measure that combines inflation, unemployment and poverty – have continued to worsen throughout 2015 following a turbulent year for both nations. Rocketing inflation in both countries has been the driving force […]
» Read moreRussia’s St. Petersburg Forum Opens to New Economic Reality
(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – June 18, 2015) Last year, Russia’s flagship economic forum in St. Petersburg, traditionally held in June, was moved forward to May to make room for a meeting of the G8 group of industrial nations in the Russian resort town of Sochi. The meeting in the host city of the 2014 Winter Olympics […]
» Read moreSt. Petersburg Economic Forum opens under a cloud
(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in St Petersburg – June 18, 2015) The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), dubbed the “Davos of Russia”, kicked off on June 18 to a reasonably heavyweight turnout from the business world despite global tensions over Ukraine. With thousands of delegates from 144 countries, this is one of the biggest events yet, but […]
» Read moreNEWSLINK CNBC: Russia faces ‘serious challenges’ and must push reforms
Russia faces a series of challenges and should use its current period of economic crisis as an opportunity to make far-reaching reforms, Russia’s political and business leaders have told CNBC at a panel at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).
» Read moreNEWSLINK Reuters: Putin says Russia is weathering sanctions storm
Investment in Russia has slowed to a trickle, capital flight has risen and the economy has been sliding into recession since oil prices tumbled last year and the West imposed economic sanctions on Moscow over the Ukraine crisis.
» Read moreQuiet days for books on Russia published in first half of 2015
(Business New Europe – bne.eu – BOOK REVIEW: Chris Weafer in Moscow – June 18, 2015) The first half of 2015 can hardly be described as a vintage period for new books about Russia. It seems that the Ukraine crisis and recession have led to many authors delaying completing their work until there is a little more clarity on how […]
» Read moreNEWSLINK AFP: Ukraine creditors reject ‘haircut’ despite default threat
Ukraine’s biggest private creditors mounted a firm defence Wednesday of their refusal to accept a debt write-off that could keep the impoverished but strategic ex-Soviet nation from slipping into default.
» Read moreNEWSLINK Wall Street Journal: Russia’s Struggling Economy Clouds St. Petersburg Economic Forum. Corporate executives head to President Vladimir’s Putin hometown for annual event
NEWSLINK The Guardian: Moscow 25 years on: do I still recognise the city?
It is 25 years since this correspondent first set foot in Europe’s largest city. In those days, the air was thick with cheap gasoline, cars were all Zhigulis (Ladas) and ZiLs – or else dodgy, paperless German saloons driven by men with thick necks and leather jackets. A chic lunch was a kebab at the Baku restaurant on Gorky street; […]
» Read morePutin’s unrealizable dream vs. his all too-real nightmare
(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – June 15, 2015) That Vladimir Putin lives in a different reality than do other world leaders is now more or less common ground. Now, two commentators have described respectively what the Kremlin leader dreams about and what his worst nightmare might turn out to be. In a commentary of Kyiv’s “Novoye vremya,” Yury […]
» Read moreRussians’ Social Bonds Increasing, Giving Them Resource for Protest, Schulmann Says
(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, June 16, 2015) Social networks among Russians have grown and deepened over the last two years, according to a poll conducted by the Russian Academy of Economics and State Service, thus creating the basis for the rise of civil society and more protests by making Russians less dependent on the state. In […]
» Read moreRussia Embraces Yuan in Move Against U.S. Dollar Hegemony
(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – June 16, 2015) Russian financial authorities, energy companies and state-controlled banks are stepping up their use of China’s yuan currency as Western sanctions spur diversification away from the U.S. dollar. In recent weeks, major Russian institutions have lined up to announce moves to use the yuan, which will likely emerge as the […]
» Read moreWhy Russia Still Attracts Immigrants
(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – June 15, 2015) Russia isn’t often thought of as a country of immigration. Yet the country’s enormous territory and shrinking indigenous population invite a striking number of immigrants: Last year, despite the collapse of oil prices and the Ukraine crisis, Russia was the biggest originator of migrant workers’ remittances in Europe. When President […]
» Read moreWar-Weary Ukraine Shutters Cash-Starved Banks as Trust Falls
(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Volodymyr Verbyany, Andras Gergely – June 12, 2015) When Vasyl Klos plunked $9,000 into a bank branch in his hometown of Lviv, Ukraine, in 2013, he assumed it was safe because it was German owned. He was wrong. Bank Forum JSC had already been sold by Commerzbank AG to Ukrainian businessman Vadim Novinsky, a fact Klos […]
» Read moreNEWSLINK The Guardian: Moscow’s suburbs may look monolithic, but the stories they tell are not
At the end of the 1950s, the Soviet Union began the largest experiment in industrialised housing in history. Owen Hatherley visits three of Moscow’s resulting mikrorayons, where the majority of Muscovites still live today
» Read moreNEWSLINK New York Times: Despite Tensions, U.S. Company Officials Attend Russian Economic Forum
The published forum program listed as attending Jim Rogers, chairman of the Miami financial company Beeland Interests; John Wories, president of Amsted Rail; and Jacob Frenkel, chairman of J. P. Morgan Chase International. David Bonderman, a founder of TPG capital, a private equity investor with shares in a grocery store chain here, also reportedly planned to attend. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/19/business/international/despite-tensions-us-company-officials-attend-russian-economic-forum.html?_r=0
» Read moreIMF will still lend to Ukraine if private creditors go unpaid
(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews – June 10, 2015) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says it will continue lending to Ukraine, even if the country fails to make payments to private creditors. “We have a policy of lending into arrears which allows us to continue lending to a member state when it has arrears with private creditors, […]
» Read moreHow the Soviet Union Wrecked Russia’s Military-Industrial Complex
(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Matthew Bodner – June 11, 2015) While Russia’s tussle with Ukraine may seem an unfair match, Ukraine does have one simple advantage – it makes a number of important vehicles and components that Russia needs to equip its military. After Moscow’s annexation of Crimea last year, Kiev brought its leverage to play and placed a […]
» Read moreIMF Offers Ukraine a Poisoned Chalice
(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – June 10, 2015) A top International Monetary Fund official is offering Ukraine a generous gift: continued loans, even if it stops paying private creditors. It is, however, a trap of sorts. Accepting the deal risks undermining Ukraine’s ability to borrow on the open market and strengthening its dependency on the IMF. “If at […]
» Read moreInterfax: Economic growth may resume in Ukraine in 2016 if reforms continue – PM Yatsenyuk
KYIV. June 11 (Interfax) – Hopefully, the Ukrainian economy will resume growth in 2016 if reforms continue in the country, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has said. “Any simple recipes or quick solutions do not exist. But, hopefully, if everything goes according to our plan, 2016 should become the first year of economic growth,” Yatsenyuk was quoted as saying by the […]
» Read moreInterfax: West loses tool of pressure on Russia after its withdrawal from G7 – Pushkov
MOSCOW. June 11 (Interfax) – The value of the G7 has markedly depleted in the U.S.’ eyes without Russia, State Duma International Committee Chairman Alexei Pushkov has said. “To my mind, the G7 is merely another incarnation of the Western alliance, a club for friends of the United States of America. So, I believe its value has markedly depleted even […]
» Read morePutin-Era Prosperity Fades as More Russians Slip Into Poverty
(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anastasia Bazenkova, Peter Hobson – June 11, 2015) More Russians have fallen into official penury as the country’s economic troubles cause the largest increase in poverty of President Vladimir Putin’s 15-year rule. The government last week published an order raising its recognized bare minimum required to live in the first quarter of this year to […]
» Read morePutin: Russia has no relations with G7 but ready to cooperate with its members bilaterally
(Interfax – June 10, 2015) Russia currently does not maintain any relationship with the G7, Russian President Vladimir Putin said. “We have no relations with the G7, what relations could there be?” Putin told journalists following negotiations with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi on June 10. At the same time, “if our partners want it, we will be developing active […]
» Read moreWorld’s economic centre of gravity continues shift east
(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – June 9, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/bnechart-worlds-economic-centre-gravity-continues-shift-east] The leaders of the G7 industrialised nations met in Berlin on June 7, but their decisions are becoming less and less relevant to the rest of the world as the centre of global economic gravity moves relentlessly east. In 1990, the centre of […]
» Read moreTRANSCRIPT: Remarks by President Obama in Press Conference after G7 Summit (excerpts)
(The White House – Office of the Press Secretary – Elmau Briefing Center, Krün, Germany, June 8, 2015) PRESIDENT OBAMA: With respect to security, the G7 remains strongly united in support for Ukraine. We’ll continue to provide economic support and technical assistance that Ukraine needs as it moves ahead on critical reforms to transform its economy and strengthen its democracy. […]
» Read moreNEWSLINK The Guardian: Is the ‘Moscow experiment’ over?
The plan was to create a new type of city that answered the needs of Moscow’s creative middle classes. But did the exit of Sergei Kapkov, the culture minister who ushered in these changes, also signal the end of the city’s urban revival?
» Read moreNEWSWATCH Washington Post: At G-7 meeting, Obama’s primary task is confronting his Putin problem
[“At G-7 meeting, Obama’s primary task is confronting his Putin problem” – Washington Post – Steven Mufson – June 6, 2015] The Washington Post covers U.S. policies towards Russia and Ukraine amidst the latest meeting of the G-7: The G-7 meeting is a symbolic moment. After the Cold War, the annual gathering of the leaders of the world’s major industrial nations […]
» Read moreInterfax: Peak of inflation has passed, but risks remain – Nabiullina
MOSCOW. June 8 (Interfax) – The Central Bank of Russia is expecting a reduction of inflation and noted that its peak has already passed, although risks exist for it, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said. “Weekly inflation has remained at 0.1% for six weeks already. According to our estimate, we have passed the peak of inflation, we are forecasting its […]
» Read moreRussia mines a richer seam; Amidst all of the doom and gloom in Russia’s economy, some of the large metals and mining companies had a surprisingly good 2014
(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Mark Adomanis in Philadelphia – June 5, 2015) I’ve written before about Russia’s banking system and the annus horribilis of 2014. With the possible exception of Sberbank, Russia’s other large banks have been beset on all sides, massively writing down the value of loans they had previously extended to Russian corporations and also taking […]
» Read moreRussia’s economy doing well but not out of the woods – Central Bank chief
(Interfax – June 4, 2015) Russia’s economy is doing better than expected but it still faces dangers and “crisis phenomena”, the head of the Central Bank said on 4 June, acknowledging the impact of “external factors”. “Current figures for the economy have proven better than economists expected but it is early to say that all the crisis phenomena have passed,” […]
» Read moreInterfax: Russia proves it can feed itself – Medvedev
ROSTOV-ON-DON. June 5 (Interfax) – Over the ten months after it introduced the embargo on food from the European Union, Russia has proved that it can feed itself on its own, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said. “The past ten months, from the moment the special economic measures were introduced, have shown or proved, if you will, the main thing: […]
» Read moreRussians Hope Worst is Over as Inflation Slows in May
(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – June 5, 2015) Russian inflation slowed in May for the second month and the price of key foodstuffs began to fall, official data showed, signaling that the worst of a painful inflation spike may have passed. Consumer prices were 15.8 percent higher in May than in the same month a year earlier, down from the […]
» Read moreNEWSLINK Wall Street Journal: U.S. Business Consultant Jailed in Russia
Scott Blacklin has been held in Nizhny Novgorod since May 20, for alleged visa violation
» Read moreRussians against Kremlin spending money on Crimea or World Cup
(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Henry Kirby in London – June 4, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/bnechart-russians-against-kremlin-spending-money-crimea-or-world-cup] An overwhelming majority of Russians are against state money for health and education being redirected toward other areas of the economy, according to a recent poll by the Levada Center. In the wake of announcements that Russia’s revised 2015 budget will increase defence […]
» Read moreMore and more Russians slipping below poverty line as recession bites
(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Yekaterina Sinelschikova, RBTH – June 4, 2015) As sanctions continue to take their toll on Russia’s faltering economy and salaries shrink in real terms, an increasing number of Russians are finding themselves unable to make ends meet. Data published by Russia’s state statistics bureau Rosstat indicates that 11 percent of Russians were living […]
» Read moreRussian economy in “full-blown crisis” – ex-finance minister
(RIA Novosti – June 3, 2015) Speaking at the Russian Federation Council in Moscow, ex-Finance Minister Aleksey Kudrin has once again criticized overblown defence spending that squeezes the funds out of other areas of Russia’s economy. A large part of the budget deficit that the country is faced with today comes “not from decreased government earning but from the need […]
» Read moreRussia No Longer a Good Option for Foreign Banks
(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – June 3, 2015) The economic fallout of the Ukraine crisis has transformed perceptions of Russia among foreign banks and will likely see lenders curtail the operations of their Russian subsidiaries, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said Tuesday. Foreign banks piled into Russia in the early 2000s in the hope that near 10 percent annual economic […]
» Read moreNEWSLINK AFP: Russian bear will roar once more, says World Bank. Russia economy forecast to grow by 0.7pc next year, reversing negative growth forecast
Russia economy forecast to grow by 0.7pc next year, reversing negative growth forecast The World Bank is seeing some improvement in Russia’s battered economy, predicting it would shrink by 2.7pc this year and return to growth of 0.7pc in 2016.
» Read moreRussia is running out of money – revisited
(Business New Europe – bne.eu – MOSCOW BLOG: Ben Aris in Moscow – June 2, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/moscow-blog-russia-running-out-money-revisited] Last December Professor Anders Aslund, then of the Peterson Institute, now of the Atlantic Council, wrote two op-eds entitled: “Russia’s Economic situation is worse than it may appear”, and “The Russian Economy is headed for disaster.” In both pieces he claimed […]
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