EU and Russia remain hostage to Ukrainian crisis as progress stalls

After modest progress made this fall on organizing elections in eastern Ukraine and the withdrawal of weaponry from the frontlines, talks on resolving the conflict in the Donbass region have again run into trouble, with the timeline for implementing the Minsk peace agreements to be extended into 2016. Where does this leave the peace process and is there a risk […]

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Winning the peace in Slovyansk

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

In eastern Ukraine, grievances are still strong following local elections. The city of Slovyansk, where the separatist campaign began last year, may not be lost, but it still hasn’t quite been won (opendemocracy.net – Dan Peleschuk – November 11, 2015) Dan Peleschuk is a journalist based in Kyiv, Ukraine. He has previously reported from Moscow and elsewhere in the former […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE – Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2015-#220 :: Thursday AM 12 November 2015

[check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2015-#220 Thursday 12 November 2015 A project sponsored through the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs The contents do not necessarily represent the views of IERES or the George Washington University. JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL on […]

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Congress Passes Bill Giving Lethal Aid To Ukraine

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – WASHINGTON – November 10, 2015) Congress has passed a defense policy bill that authorizes up to $50 million in lethal military aid for Ukraine and mandates a White House response if Russia is deemed to be violating a key arms control treaty. The White House said hours after the $607 billion bill was passed by the […]

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UN refugee agency delivers aid to eastern Ukraine for first time in months

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(United Nations – UN News Centre- un.org – November 9, 2015) [Reprinted with the permission of the United Nations.] The United Nations refugee agency has managed to deliver aid for the first time in over two months to areas of eastern Ukraine beyond Government control where two million people are in urgent need of assistance, reaching 12,000 people – a […]

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Russian Justice Ministry Accuses Memorial Of Calling For Regime Change

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – RFE/RL’s Russian Service – November 10, 2015) Russia’s Justice Ministry has accused the prominent nongovernmental organization Memorial of “undermining the foundations of the constitutional order of the Russian Federation” and of calling for “a change of political regime” in the country. The ministry sent the Memorial Human Rights Center notification of the accusations on November 9 […]

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Ukraine: Europe’s forgotten refugees

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

While the world focuses on refugees arriving in Europe from warzones in the Middle East, the plight of those fleeing war in Ukraine has been forgotten. (opendemocracy.net – Sara Cincurova – November 20, 2015) Sara Cincurova is a freelance journalist focusing on human rights. She is a former family support worker and holds a Master’s degree from the Paris Descartes […]

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Moscow laying groundwork to annex Belarus, open second front against Ukraine next year

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

(Paul Goble – November 9, 2015) For Vladimir Putin, Viktor Kaspruk argues, “Ukraine is the key to a future Russia or more precisely a future Russian Empire,” and consequently, even if he has lowered the temperature in the Donbas in recent weeks, the Kremlin leader is likely to renew his attacks on Ukraine next year having first moved to annex […]

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TRANSCRIPT: Russian Propaganda: Ways and Means – Leon Aron Senate Testimony

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

Statement before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation On “Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine and the Propaganda that Threatens Europe” Russian Propaganda: Ways and Means Leon Aron, Ph.D. Resident Scholar and Director of Russian Studies American Enterprise Institute November 3, 2015 The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) […]

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Interfax: Russia does not see Ukraine as enemy despite Kyiv’s new military doctrine – Russian Security Council

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

MOSCOW. Nov 5 (Interfax) – Russia does not see Ukraine as an adversary despite a new military doctrine approved by Kyiv. “For its part, Russia does not consider Ukraine an enemy,” Mikhail Popov, Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council, told reporters on Thursday. “While calling our country an enemy, the Ukrainian government continues buying from what it calls its […]

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NEWSLINK Defenseone.com: “Obama Should Have Given Weapons to Ukraine, Says Former Pentagon Russia Official” [Evelyn Farkas]

U.S. Military Convoy Headed to Ukraine, On Highway Near Mountains or Cliffs » Read more

Interfax: DPR to launch combat actions if Ukraine breaches truce – Zakharchenko

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

DEBALTSEVE. (Donetsk region). Nov 4 (Interfax) – The self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) will launch combat actions at a place they will find necessary, if Ukraine breaches the truce, DPR leader Alexander Zakharchenko said. “The ceasefire is notional, yesterday I heard and saw how the silence regime is being implemented and watched the gunfire on Pesky and the frontline positions […]

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Nov. 4 Event on Capitol Hill: The Crisis in US-Russia Relations, from Ukraine to Syria

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

From: “Sperling, Erik” <Erik.Sperling@mail.house.gov> Subject: Nov. 4 event on Capitol Hill: The Crisis in US-Russia Relations, from Ukraine to Syria Date: October 28, 2015 The Crisis in US-Russia Relations, from Ukraine to Syria: Is Congress Overlooking its Causes and Potential Solutions? Hosted by Rep. John Conyers, Jr., Rep. Ted Yoho, Rep. Charles Rangel, Rep. Steve Cohen, Rep. Jim Himes, Rep. […]

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Kyiv Must Use Military Means to Recover Occupied Territories Now, Borovoy Says

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Paul Goble – Staunton, October 25, 2015) Now that Vladimir Putin is focused on Syria and clearly unlikely to stop there, the Ukrainian government should take advantage of the situation by moving militarily to reclaim Russian-occupied territories in the Donbas and Crimea, according to Konstantin Borovoy. “The attention of the Russian president has been distracted” for the moment by Syria, […]

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The Origins of Separatism: Popular Grievances in Donetsk and Luhansk

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(PONARS – ponarseurasia.org – Elise Giuliano – October 2015) Elise Giuliano is a Lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Columbia University and Academic Advisor of the MA Program in Russia, Eurasia and Eastern Europe at Columbia’s Harriman Institute. [Text with charts here http://www.ponarseurasia.org/memo/origins-separatism-popular-grievances-donetsk-and-luhansk] (PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) What were the origins of separatism in the Donbas? When the […]

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DPR, LPR obstructing verification of withdrawn armaments – OSCE mission

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KYIV. Oct 29 (Interfax) – Representatives of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics are obstructing the access of OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) monitors to weapon storage sites, Deputy Chief Monitor Alexander Hug said. The OSCE SMM continues to monitor the withdrawal of artillery pieces with calibers under 100mm and mortars with calibers under 120mm and to […]

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Stephen Blank: “The Black Sea and Beyond”

Black Sea Satellite Photo file image

Subject: The Black Sea and Beyond Date: Wed, 28 Oct 201 From: Stephen Blank <traininblank@aol.com> David could you please place a notice of my new article The Black Sea and Beyond in the Proceedings of the US Naval Institute, http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2015-10/black-sea-and-beyond The naval and strategic consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cast a long shadow over Eastern Europe and the Middle […]

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Russian military intelligence officers captured in eastern Ukraine change story

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(Human Rights in Ukraine – khpg.org – Halya Coynash – October 27, 2015) One of the two Russian spetsnaz officers captured in eastern Ukraine in May this year is now denying that he was a serving Russian officer, and the other, whose family has just hired a different lawyer, may be planning to do the same.   Any claim now that […]

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Brothers Armed: Military Aspects of the Crisis in Ukraine. Second edition.

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

From: director@cast.ru (Ruslan Pukhov) Date: 20.10.2015 Subject: Brothers Armed: Military Aspects of the Crisis in Ukraine. Second edition. Brothers Armed: Military Aspects of the Crisis in Ukraine offers an in-depth look at the state of the military in both Russia and Ukraine, as well as the history, political circumstances and events leading to the annexation of Crimea and outbreak of […]

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ASN 2016 World Convention Call for Papers (Deadline Reminder: 29 October)

Columbia University Campus with Main Building

Subject: To Post: ASN 2016 World Convention Call for Papers (Deadline Reminder: 29 October) Date: Tue, 20 Oct 2015 00:30:09 +0000 From: Dominique Arel <darel@uottawa.ca> To: davidjohnson@starpower.net <davidjohnson@starpower.net> Dear David: could you post this Deadline Reminder on JRL? Thanks, Dominique [A PDF of this announcement can be accessed at http://nationalities.org/uploads/documents/ASN16_Call_for_Papers.pdf] Call for Papers 21st Annual World Convention of the Association […]

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Kremlin chief of staff sees little progress in implementation of Minsk agreements on Ukraine

File Photo of Sergei Ivanov, adapted from defense.gov image

KRASNAYA POLYANA, Sochi. Oct 22 (Interfax) – Moscow is not inclined at the moment to make optimistic forecasts regarding the developments in settling the conflict in Ukraine, as the Minsk agreements have yet to be fulfilled, and Kyiv needs to arrange contacts with Donetsk and Luhansk representatives, Kremlin chief of staff Sergei Ivanov says. “I would be cautious about making […]

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NEWSWATCH Stratfor: “A Grand Bargain remains elusive in Ukraine”

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Stratfor covers the Russo-Ukrainian War and prospects for a political and diplomatic solution.  While arguing that there are some signs of lessening conflict, a broader settlement does not seem imminent. After a year of slow-burning conflict in eastern Ukraine, the relationship between Kiev and Moscow seems to finally be improving. Fighting on the ground has dissipated, there have been positive […]

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Poroshenko Pressures TV Channel to Keep Putin Handshake Off-Air

Petro Poroshenko file photo, with additional men in background, adapted from image at state.gov

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anna Dolgov – October 19, 2015) A Ukrainian television channel has published a statement by its former producer, claiming officials from President Petro Poroshenko’s administration banned the channel from broadcasting footage of a handshake the Ukrainian leader exchanged with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at a recent meeting. The handshake took place at the start […]

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Extending implementation of Minsk peace deal for Ukraine depends only on its sides’ political agreements – source

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MOSCOW. Oct 16 (Interfax) – A possible decision to extend the implementation of the Minsk peace agreements for Ukraine into 2016 will not require any specific judicial procedure, a Russian diplomatic source told Interfax. “The Package of Measures is not an international treaty. Rather, it is a political agreement. And prolonging [the implementation of] its provisions into next year is […]

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Interfax: Crimeans not to be forced to renounce Ukraine’s citizenship – pro-Kremlin leader

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Interfax – October 14, 2015) Simferpol, 14 October: The need to notify the Russian Federal Migration Service [FMS] about second citizenship, which comes into effect for the residents of Crimea and Sevastopol from 1 January 2016, is not aimed at forcing regional residents to renounce the Ukrainian citizenship, the republic’s head Sergey Aksenov [Serhiy Aksyonov] has said. “We know anyway […]

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Infowar Continues as Russian, MH17 Investigations Reach Different Conclusions

Ukraine Air Crash Scene with Uniformed Security Personnel, Flames, Smoke

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Matthew Bodner, Eva Hartog – October 14, 2015) The Dutch Safety Board and Russians arms manufacturer Almaz-Antey on Tuesday told a similar story about what caused the downing of flight MH17 in eastern Ukraine last year, but had a politically charged crucial difference of opinion on what type of warhead was used – and consequently, […]

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Interfax: Ukraine rebels say they “did not have” Buk missile system at time of MH17 crash

Ukraine Air Crash Scene with Uniformed Security Personnel, Flames, Smoke

(Interfax – October 13, 2015) Eduard Basuryn (Basurin), the deputy defence minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, has once again said that the east Ukrainian insurgents did not have access to a Buk surface-to-air missile system at the time when Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 was shot down, privately-owned Russian news agency Interfax reported on 13 October. Earlier in the […]

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NEWSWATCH New York Times: “Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 Most Likely Hit by Russian-Made Missile, Inquiry Says”

Ukraine Air Crash Scene with Uniformed Security Personnel, Flames, Smoke

October 13, 2015 The New York Times covers the Dutch investigation of the shoot-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over an area of Ukraine controlled by Russia-backed rebels. A 15-month inquiry into the disintegration of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in the skies over eastern Ukraine has concluded that the aircraft was most likely attacked from the ground by a Russian-made […]

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TRANSCRIPT: Victoria Nuland Senate Testimony on Ukraine

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

(US Department of State – Testimony on Ukraine- Victoria Nuland, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs – October 8, 2015) Statement Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Washington, DC October 8, 2015 As prepared Thank you Chairman Corker, Ranking Member Cardin, members of this committee for the opportunity to join you today and for the personal investment so […]

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Interfax: Moscow hopes Minsk peace accords for Ukraine will be extended – source

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

MOSCOW. Oct 9 (Interfax) – Moscow believes that it would be advisable to extend the validity period of the Minsk peace agreements for Ukraine to 2016, a Russian diplomatic source told Interfax on Friday. “We hope that the ‘Minsk-2’ [accords] will be prolonged. This stems from the very course of the settlement [process], in particular the decision of the DPR […]

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Ukraine crisis: Is there a light at the end of the tunnel?

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

De-escalation measures have begun in eastern Ukraine as the sides start to withdraw light weaponry from the frontlines – a move expected to be accompanied by political steps in accordance with the Minsk peace agreements signed in February. But are the parties to the conflict ready for this? (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexey Timofeychev, RBTH – October […]

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RBTH: Further progress in Ukraine as Donbass agrees to postpone elections

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

The governments of the self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine have agreed to postpose their local elections, thus fulfilling the wishes expressed by the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France Normandy at talks in Paris on Oct. 2. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexey Timofeychev, RBTH – October 8, 2015) The unrecognized Donetsk and Lugansk “people’s republics” (DNR […]

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Non-Battle Casualties Make Up Third of Ukraine Military Deaths

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – October 8, 2015) Nearly a third of Ukraine’s military losses over the past two years were non-battle casualties, according to the country’s Defense Ministry figures cited by news reports. In total, 2,027 servicemen deaths have been recorded in 2014-2015 so far, according to the Defense Ministry report released Wednesday. Among them, 597 were non-battle casualties, […]

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Russian foreign ministry says postponement of DPR/LPR elections to make parties find common grounds, draw their positions closer

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MOSCOW. Oct 8 (Interfax) – Russia’s foreign ministry hopes that the move to postpone the elections in the self-proclaimed republics in Donbas will create favorable conditions for further discussions on the matter of political settlement of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. “The crucial point was the statement of Donetsk and Luhansk on the shifting of the dates of the local […]

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Interfax: LPR promises to pull back artillery guns after OSCE confirms Ukrainian tanks withdrawal

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

MOSCOW. Oct 6 (Interfax) – The militia of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic will begin the pullback of artillery systems immediately after the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) confirms the end of the pullback of tanks by the Ukrainian military, the LPR people’s militsiya headquarters told Interfax on Tuesday. “It is needed to wait until the Ukrainian […]

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Interfax: OSCE SMM reports weapons pullback in Donbass in line with Minsk accords

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Interfax – October 5, 2015) The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Special Monitoring Mission (OSCE SMM) reports the process of pulling back weapons from the dividing line in Donbass in compliance with the Minsk agreements. In the districts controlled by the self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic (LNR) the monitors have noticed the withdrawal of 30 main combat tanks (T-64 […]

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Ukraine Is Being Told to Live With Putin

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – October 5, 2015) Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has long had trouble understanding that the Western support of his government is conditional. Now the leaders of France and Germany have told him that in no uncertain terms: The ceasefire agreement for eastern Ukraine has just been recast to put the onus on Poroshenko, rather […]

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