TRANSCRIPT: DIA Statement for the Record – Worldwide Threat Assessment [excerpt re Russia]

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

(Armed Services Committee, United States Senate – Vincent R. Stewart, Lieutenant General, U.S. Marine Corps, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency – February 9, 2016) RUSSIA Moscow continues to devote major resources to modernizing its military forces, viewing military power as critical to achieving key strategic objectives: acknowledged great power status, dominating smaller regional states and deterring NATO from military action in […]

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TRANSCRIPT: DNI – Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community [excerpt re: Russia] – Statement for the Record

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

(Senate Armed Services Committee – James R. Clapper, Director of National Intelligence – February 9, 2016) Leading Threat Actors Russia. Russia is assuming a more assertive cyber posture based on its willingness to target critical infrastructure systems and conduct espionage operations even when detected and under increased public scrutiny. Russian cyber operations are likely to target US interests to support […]

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U.S. National Intelligence Director Says Russia Is Paranoid, Aggressive

DNI Seal and Smaller Seals of Agencies Related to DNI

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anna Dolgov – February 10, 2016) Russia is “paranoid” about NATO and is likely to continue “aggressive” actions this year to support its claim to great power status, U.S. National Intelligence Director James Clapper said in Senate testimony Tuesday. In a report on “Worldwide Threat Assessment” that Clapper presented to the Senate, Russia topped a […]

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The Daily Vertical: Putin Smells Blood

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Brian Whitmore – February 9, 2016) As the shaky Minsk cease-fire agreement nears its first anniversary, Russia clearly smells blood in Ukraine. Pro-Moscow separatists have increased their attacks in Donbas in recent weeks. Kyiv officials are reporting 71 attacks a day in the vicinity of Donetsk, Horlivka, and Mariupol. Yesterday, Vladimir Putin ordered snap military drills […]

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Interfax: Russians support humanitarian aid to Donbas, relative majority sees no change there – poll

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

MOSCOW. Feb 9 (Interfax) – Russians say that the Donbas situation has been unaltered, and support humanitarian aid to people in that region, yet, there is no unanimity regarding further policy towards the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, the Russian Public Opinion Study Center said. According to the poll, a relative majority of Russians (45%) ‘do not see any […]

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NEWSLINK: “UKRAINE AND THE LETHAL HAND OF HISTORY. Whatever the ambitions of Putin, his interference in Ukraine would have come to little without the country’s charged history of internal division.” – The Wilson Quarterly/Robert Thurston

Balaklava harbour, the cattle pier, Crimea, Ukraine, 1855; adapted from image at loc.gov; Fenton, Roger, 1819-1869, photographer; » Read more

RUSSIA & UKRAINE – Johnson’s Russia List table of contents :: JRL 2016-25 :: Thursday, 4 February 2016

Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2016-#25 Thursday 4 February 2016 A project sponsored through the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs The contents do not necessarily represent the views of IERES or the George Washington University. JRL homepage: russialist.org – JRL on Facebook: facebook.com/russialist – JRL on Twitter: @JohnsonRussiaLi Support for JRL is provided in part […]

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NEWSLINK: “Putin must be stopped. And sometimes only guns can stop guns. The time for diplomacy will come again, but it is not now: Ukraine urgently needs military support, and a counter to Russian propaganda.” – The Guardian/Timothy Garton Ash

Vladimir Putin file photo with VOA logo; screen shot from video still » Read more

52% of Russians favor open borders with Ukraine, without visas or customs

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

(Interfax – February 3, 2016) Half of Russians (52 percent) believe that Russia and Ukraine should be independent countries but friends, with open borders and without visas or customs, Levada Center told Interfax. The opinion was held by 52 percent of respondents in 2015, and 59 percent in 2014, the sociologists said. A third argue that Russia-Ukraine relations should be […]

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NEWSLINK: “Ways out of a blind alley in Ukraine. Almost one year after the Minsk agreement to resolve the Ukraine crisis, diplomats are working frantically behind the scenes but the two sides are still entrenched. Frank Hofmann reports from Kyiv.” – Deutsche Welle

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia » Read more

Interfax: DPR militiamen accuse Kyiv of over 100 shellings over past day

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

DONETSK. Feb 2 (Interfax) – The Defense Ministry of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) said that the Ukrainian military have breached the ceasefire 28 times over the past day; two people were wounded. “The situation on the contact line has not changed over the past day. The Ukrainian army has shelled the territory of the republic 109 times as […]

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Russia Sanctions Can Be Lifted If Minsk Implemented – U.S. Ambassador

File Photo of U.S. Embassy Moscow, with Russian Foreign Ministry Building in Distance

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – January 29, 2016) Sanctions against Moscow can be lifted after it implements the Minsk peace agreement with Ukraine, including restoration of Kiev control over separatist eastern regions, the U.S. Ambassador in Moscow John Tefft said in an interview published on the U.S. Embassy’s website Thursday. Washington has the full backing of its European allies in […]

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Putin’s Departure Alone Won’t Necessarily Solve Ukraine’s Problems, Popovich Says

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, January 28, 2016) Like many in the West, Ukrainians view Vladimir Putin as the main source of their problems; but if he dies or otherwise leaves the scene, a Kyiv commentator says, he could be followed by leaders who would be even worse, a reminder that the problem is not Putin alone […]

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Russian Entente Nears as Allies Give Ukraine Sanctions Hint

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – January 26, 2016) After almost two years on the outside, signs are growing that Russia may soon be invited in from the cold. The worsening of crises from Syria to Libya are forcing the international community to reconsider sanctions slapped on President Vladimir Putin’s government over Ukraine as a way of getting a key diplomatic power […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine to reclaim Donbas this year – Poroshenko” – Interfax-Ukraine

Petro Poroshenko file photo, with additional men in background, adapted from image at state.gov

Interfax-Ukraine reports on comments attributed to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko regarding conflict-ridden eastern Ukraine. Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko has said … ‘At my press conference on January 14 I clearly proclaimed: my objective – and I firmly believe in this – is to restore Ukrainian sovereignty in Donbas already in 2016. And yesterday speakers in Davos also reaffirmed this position: […]

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US Appears to Have Accepted ‘Donbas Model’ Not Only for Ukraine but for Other Conflicts, Russian Analyst Says

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, January 20, 2016) Petr Iskenderov, a researcher at the Moscow Institute of Slavic Studies and a commentator for Russia Today, says that it now appears the US has accepted what he calls “the Donbas Model” for the resolution not only of the conflict in Ukraine but for similar conflicts elsewhere. That model, […]

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NEWSLINK The Guardian/Shaun Walker: “Caught between Russia and the US? The curious case of Ukraine’s Dmytro Firtash. Critics say the oligarch now living in exile pushed Putin’s agenda during Maidan revolution while a US arrest warrant appeared politically motivated.”

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Russia Pushing for An Endgame in Ukraine

Vladislav Surkov file photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Matthew Bodner – January 21, 2016) The appearance of one of President Vladimir Putin’s most enigmatic associates, Vladislav Surkov, at a meeting with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland last Friday has sparked speculation that Moscow and Washington are approaching an endgame in Ukraine after two years of conflict. “That is was Surkov, and […]

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Peskov: Surkov, Nuland hold expert dialogue on settlement in Ukraine

Dmitry Peskov file photo adapted from image at kremlin.ru/wikimedia commons

(Interfax – January 20, 2016) The negotiations held between Russian Presidential Aide Vladislav Surkov and Victoria Nuland, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs at the United States Department of State, in Kaliningrad with regard to the settlement in Ukraine were an expert exchange of opinions between Moscow and Washington, which is not a member of the ‘Normandy […]

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Gorbachev: Russian-U.S. summit needed for settling crisis in Ukraine

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Interfax – January 20, 2016) The Russian and U.S. presidents should meet to speed up the settlement of the crisis in eastern Ukraine, says former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev. Negotiations between Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland in Kaliningrad last week could mark the beginning of preparations for a bilateral summit dealing with […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Months without pay at Donetsk mine leads to strike, firings” – Kyiv Post – Josh Kovensky – January 19, 2016

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

The Kiev Post covers labor unrest amidst the conflict in eastern Ukraine. After months without pay, workers in one of Ukraine’s largest coal mines had enough. Workers at the Kholodna Balka mine in Donetsk Oblast’s Makeevka decided to strike on Jan. 13, bringing work to a halt …. miners said that they decided to go on strike after nearly a […]

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Tensions escalate in conflict zone in eastern Ukraine after New Year holidays – OSCE SMM

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

DONETSK. Jan 19 (Interfax) – Members from the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) have observed an escalation of tensions along the Donbas contact line in January after a relative lull in the period before the New Year holidays. Things calmed down before New Year’s Eve, and tensions escalated after the holidays, OSCE Principal Deputy Chief Monitor Alexander Hug […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Seven Key Reforms for Ukraine in 2016” – Atlantic Council/Anders Åslund

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

Anders Åslund covers unfolding conditions in Ukraine, adding recommendations for steps forward in 2016. … It is quite striking how the mood has changed in a positive direction. The 2016 budget and the modified tax code were adopted on December 24. After two weeks of well-deserved rest, there is a sudden realization that Ukraine accomplished many important economic reforms in […]

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NEWSWATCH Vladimir Suchan: “Nuland-Surkov Talks”

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Vladimir Suchan – Facebook post – January 17, 2016) Alexander Chalenko, who belongs to the ex-Ukrainian circle of Surkov’s and the Kremlin’s PR horns, published an article… Posted by Vladimir Suchan on Saturday, January 16, 2016

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Ukrainian military disrupt repair works in Zaitseve by opening fire – Russian representative in JCCC

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

DONETSK. Jan 18 (Interfax) – The Ukrainian Armed Forces have disrupted the restoration works in the area of Zaitseve by opening fire, a representative of the Russian Armed Forces in the Joint Center for Control and Coordination (JCCC) told reporters. “Today, on January 18, the works, which were determined as priority in Minsk on January 13, 2016, began in four […]

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Hidden Sting Raises Costs for Ukraine in Russian Trade War

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Daryna Krasnolutska – January 14, 2016) [Charts here bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-13/hidden-sting-drives-up-costs-for-ukraine-in-russian-trade-war] With the conflict in Ukraine already having ravaged bilateral trade, Russia canceling a free-trade pact with its former ally wasn’t seen as a big danger. But there was a twist. On top of annulling the accord, a response to Ukraine’s trade agreement with the European Union, Russia […]

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Territorial battalions uncontrolled by Kyiv breaking truce in Donbas – Pushilin

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

DONETSK. Jan 15 (Interfax) – Self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) negotiator, Denis Pushilin, has blamed territorial battalions uncontrolled by Kyiv for the increased number of shelling incidents in Donbas, after a ceasefire deal was signed at the latest Minsk meeting. “The reason is that provocations are being staged by territorial battalions which are not fully controlled by Kyiv. There are […]

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