NEWSWATCH Stratfor: “A Grand Bargain remains elusive in Ukraine”
Stratfor covers the Russo-Ukrainian War and prospects for a political and diplomatic solution. While arguing that there are some signs of lessening conflict, a broader settlement does not seem imminent.
After a year of slow-burning conflict in eastern Ukraine, the relationship between Kiev and Moscow seems to finally be improving. Fighting on the ground has dissipated, there have been positive developments in talks … and both sides began to pull heavy weaponry back from the line of contact …. Moreover, Russia and Ukraine have agreed on a temporary natural gas deal and will begin direct negotiations on Kiev’s terms of repayment for a bond that matures in December. And in a major concession … the separatist territories of Donetsk and Luhansk announced Oct. 6 that they would postpone local elections.
These developments signal progress toward ending the standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine. However, a broader settlement will still be difficult to achieve and is unlikely to be reached before the end of the year.
The United States is said to be more aggressive than Europe regarding sanctions and unlikely to embrace a resolution of the conflict that does not include complete Russian withdrawal from eastern Ukraine.
… the United States could pose another obstacle to resolution. Certain European countries … are interested in de-escalating the conflict, but the United States has maintained an aggressive posture toward Russia. Washington has increased financial assistance, held more frequent military trainings and mulled an increase in defensive weapon supplies to Ukraine. The United States has less to lose by maintaining sanctions … and has less of an interest in easing them than … the European Union. A grand bargain would need to include the United States, but Washington is uninterested in a deal that does not include a complete pullout of Russian troops from eastern Ukraine. …
Click here for Stratfor: “A Grand Bargain remains elusive in Ukraine”