(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – David Tweed, Haslinda Amin – April 20, 2015) Russia’s economy showed signs of recovery in the first and second quarters amid a declining dependence on oil, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said. “Oil prices are not as important to the Russian economy as before,” Dvorkovich told Bloomberg TV Monday at the World Economic Forum on […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – April 20, 2015) The ruble slumped 4 percent and Moscow-listed stocks fell on Friday after official data showed that Russia’s economy contracted sharply in the first quarter of this year. The data, which showed a deep decline in real wages and consumer spending, came a day after President Vladimir Putin told Russians […]
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Faced with the triple whammy of plunging oil prices, currency volatility and Western sanctions, there’s no dearth of challenges for Russia’s ailing economy, but Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said what hurts most is the scarcity of financing for new investments. “The shortness of financing for new investments is where the Russian economy is being hit in the most important […]
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MOSCOW. April 15 (Interfax) – Moody’s Investors Service expects Russian inflation to peak at 17%-18% in the second quarter of 2015 and to drop below 10% by mid-2016 as the impact of the ruble’s depreciation fades, Moody’s said in a report on Russia’s banking sector in 2015. “Therefore Central Bank of Russia (CBR) is likely to loosen monetary policy on […]
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Russia must review its participation in international financial organisations because the country is paying too much in fees, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/15/russia-crisis-internationalfunds-idUSR4N0X602D20150415
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The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday predicted more pain for the Russian economy and gloom around the ex-Soviet region despite positive noises from Moscow that the worst of the crisis might be over. Russia’s economy is expected to shrink by 3.8 percent this year as sanctions imposed by the West over the conflict in Ukraine and low oil prices push […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Henry Meyer, Stephen Bierman – April 14, 2015) As Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, he’s willing to take an economic hit to expand his political influence. He’s taking the same approach with Iran. Lifting sanctions and allowing Iranian oil onto global markets would threaten to deepen the plunge in crude […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Olga Tanas, Anna Andrianova – April 14, 2015) Russian capital outflows will slow further as bonds and the ruble stage a comeback following a sell-off last year, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. Net outflows will slow to $15 billion in the second quarter after a “sharp decline” in the previous three months, bringing the total for […]
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MOSCOW. April 14 (Interfax) – The Russian economy for January-February 2015 declined 1.9% year-on-year and the reduction was less than was forecast, Russian Prime Ministry Dmitry Medvedev said at an expanded meeting of the Finance Ministry on Tuesday in Moscow. “At the start of the year, we noted a certain decline of the economy. In January-February it was 1.9%, according […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – April 10, 2015) Net capital outflow from Russia was $32.6 billion in the first quarter of the year, down from $72.9 billion in the previous three months, suggesting that panic over Russia’s economic crisis has receded, data published this week by the Central Bank showed. Capital flight from Russia nearly tripled in 2014 from the […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – April 13, 2015) Clutching two plastic bags full of clothes she had just collected from a charity center in central Moscow, Svetlana Burkutskaya said that rising prices were making it harder for her to find enough money to put food on the table for her three school-age children. “There is not sufficient […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Henry Kirby in London – April 10, 2015 – bne.eu/content/story/bnechart-putin-ratings-defy-grim-economic-outlook) 25 years after Ronald Reagan left the White House, it would seem that Russia has its own ‘Teflon President’ in Vladimir Putin. The Russian president’s consistently high ratings show that his and Reagan’s similarities go beyond a Hollywood penchant for horse riding and rifle-toting, […]
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(RIA Novosti – April 7, 2015) Aleksey Kudrin, Russia’s finance minister from 2000 to 2011, has said he still receives offers to return to the government but has turned them down because of “half-hearted” reforms, RIA Novosti (part of the state-owned International News Agency Rossiya Segodnya) reported on 7 April. “My leaving the government, as is well-known, was related to […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH – April 8, 2015) A report released by the World Bank projects no economic growth in Russia either in 2015 or 2016. This forecast is at odds with the figures from the Russian Ministry of the Economy, which predicts an economic growth of 2.3 percent as early as in 2016. […]
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MOSCOW. April 8 (Interfax) – The decline in Russia’s GDP in 2015 will not exceed 3%, industrial production will drop 1%-1.5%, and investment in fixed assets will fall 11%, Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said. “We assume that this year under the most conservative estimate of the oil market situation – $50 per barrel – we will have a decline […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – April 8, 2015) The Russian currency strengthened rapidly Wednesday as a recent rally driven by greater confidence in the ruble and easing international tensions overpowered the downward pressure of a sliding oil price. The ruble jumped over 3 percent in morning trading to 53.4 against the U.S. dollar before weakening slightly to […]
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(Institute of Modern Russia – imrussia.org – Leonid Martynyuk – April 6, 2015 – article also appeared at imrussia.org/en/opinions/2222-dmitry-oreshkin-in-the-light-of-nemtsovs-murder-putin-looks-like-a-weak-and-dependent-politician) The Institute of Modern Russia continues its series of interviews with Russian and Western experts on the situation in Russia, its relationship with the West, and the future of its political system. Journalist Leonid Martynyuk speaks with prominent Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin […]
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MOSCOW. April 7 (Interfax) – There’s no artificial deliberate liquidity crunch in Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank, said. “There’s no artificial liquidity crunch,” she said. She said the ruble was strengthening due to the stabilization of oil prices, and end to peak foreign debt repayments and a high key rate. “Some people have described the ruble’s strengthening […]
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(Interfax – April 6, 2015) Fifty percent of Russians are happy with their life, which is 7 percent more than a year ago (43 percent), the Russian Public Opinion Study Center (VTsIOM) said. Twenty percent are not happy (14 percent in 2014) and 28 percent have mixed feelings (42 percent in 2014), the center said, quoting a poll of 1,600 respondents […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Delphine d’Amora – April 3, 2015) Cautious optimism is beginning to emerge in Russia’s services sector, even as business activity continues to drop and the Russian economy veers toward recession, a report by international bank HSBC found. The services sector continued to shrink in March, but at a much slower rate than in February, when business […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews- April 3, 2015) Founding a $100bn currency reserve pool, launching the New Development Bank, and progress toward the peaceful settlement of world conflicts should be the hallmarks of Russia’s presidency of the BRICS grouping of emerging powers, the country’s leadership pledged after taking the helm on April 1. “The Russian presidency will […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Ksenia Galouchko – MOSCOW, April 6, 2015) For one of the toughest jobs in financial markets, try predicting the ruble. As Russia’s currency went from the world’s worst performer to the best in the first three months of this year, it caught out even the most accurate forecasters. Oil’s drop to near a six-year low and […]
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MOSCOW. April 6 (Interfax) – Inflation in Russia slowed to 1.2% in March from 2.2% in February, 3.9% in January and 2.6% in December, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. This was slightly above the 1.1% that analysts predicted in a consensus forecast for Interfax. It was also higher than the 1% that Rosstat itself estimated, although that was […]
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Like many Russians who climbed into an emerging middle class in recent years, Miller is watching his relative prosperity vanish. The plummet in global oil prices since last summer and Western sanctions imposed on Russia over its seizure of Ukrainian territory last year have cut deeply into the national budget, which depends on hydrocarbon exports for more than half of […]
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When Vladislav Revenok, an Orthodox priest, first participated in the obscure Russian version of Alaska’s Iditarod, he found himself in places so isolated that he was mobbed by villagers demanding to be baptized. They told him he was the first priest to visit the outback of the already remote Kamchatka Peninsula in about 50 years.
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(Institute of Modern Russia – imrussia.org – Donald N. Jensen – April 1, 2015 – article also appeared at imrussia.org/en/analysis/politics/2217-is-there-a-feud-over-a-new-tsar-in-the-kremlin) Vladimir Putin’s ten-day absence from the public eye has become the most discussed event in Russia this past month, and also highlights the country’s crisis of governance. According to Donald Jensen, resident fellow of the Center for Transatlantic Relations, keeping the increasingly […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – April 2, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-01/russia-s-recovery-won-t-have-to-be-oil-driven] Signs are multiplying that the Russian economy will not die a painful death, but is just taking some long-overdue strong medicine. The country posted unexpected growth in the fourth quarter of 2014, and it can now look beyond oil for drivers of recovery. Today, the Federal Statistics […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – April 2, 2015) The World Bank predicted Wednesday that Russia’s economy will contract by 3.8 percent this year and continue to underperform in the years to come amid the continuing impact of Western sanctions. Economic problems will also drive down real wages and push about 5 million more Russians into poverty this […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Apri 1, 2015) President Vladimir Putin should use the sky-high rating he has earned on the back of the Ukraine crisis to reform the economy, former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin was quoted as saying Tuesday. “Global leaders’ high ratings are a basis for trust and to conduct reforms,” Kudrin said, news agency RBC reported. “If this […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – CONFERENCE CALL: Marcus Booth in London – April 1, 2015) Russia has experienced a “significant rally” in recent weeks, amid “wide acknowledgement” that the country has “significant financial cushions and liquidity buffers,” Andreas Kolbe of Barclays told attendees at the “EMTA Special Seminar “Russia/Ukraine: An Update” on March 26. At the panel session, hosted […]
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(Moscow Times – April 1, 2016) Only 2 percent of Russians count the ruble’s collapse among the most important issues facing their country, according to a recent survey by state pollster VTsIOM. When asked the question “Which problems do you believe are the most important for the country as a whole?” 21 percent of respondents chose “the economy,” 17 percent […]
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[“World Bank sees protracted recession in Russia” – Reuters – March 31, 2015] Reuters covers pessimistic forecasts by the World Bank of Russia’s near-term economic prospects. Russia faces a protracted recession as the impact of Western sanctions lingers and oil prices stay low, the World Bank said in a report published on Wednesday. In its baseline scenario, the bank expected Russia’s […]
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[“Former Putin allies question his political course” – AP – NATALIYA VASILYEVA – March 31, 2015] As Russian President Vladimir Putin marks 15 years in power, former advisors such as Alexei Kudrin are raising concerns over the impact of his current policies, such as the economic fallout of Putin’s aggressive foreign policy. … in a rare show of dissent several long-time […]
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[“American farmer among the winners in sanctions-hit Russia” – AP – James Ellingsworth – Apr. 1, 2015] AP examines the impact of Ukraine-related Western sanctions on Russia, such as increased prices for some farmers, instability in international projects, and evolving energy relations between Russia and China. The impact of sanctions, and a Russian embargo, on agriculture is apparently mixed. Russia’s ‘counter-sanctions’ ban on food imports […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – March 27, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-27/putin-s-economic-team-plays-houdini] Last week, the Russian central bank’s currency reserves increased for the first time since last July, showing that the economy may have moved past the panic caused by last year’s oil price slump. Perhaps Russia’s improving indicators will convince Western governments that economic sanctions are having no […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Bryan MacDonald, special to RBTH – March 30, 2015) The ruble’s calamitous fall against the euro and dollar this winter and a well-publicised recession makes Russia less attractive for expats than anytime in recent memory. But are they really leaving the country? Bryan MacDonald discovers that how the economy is faring back home […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Spinella – March 30, 2015) Russia’s relations with the West may have reached lows unparalleled since the Cold War, but the trend for kitschy Russian and Soviet souvenirs abroad appears to be as popular as ever, bringing vendors a pretty penny. Selling souvenirs on online marketplaces such as eBay and Etsy can yield a […]
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[“Brand Putin: Russia’s president still in fashion 15 years on” – BBC News – Sarah Rainsford – Moscow, March 27, 2015] The BBC examines Russia President Vladimir Putin’s personal notoriety and power as political symbol. Fifteen years ago, Vladimir Putin was elected promising to make Russia strong again: a country its citizens could be proud of and that the world would respect. * […]
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[“Russia’s rich forego some luxuries but still back Putin” – Reuters – Elizabeth Piper – March 29, 2015] Reuters covers the reactions among Russia’s elite to economic changes such as Western sanctions, a falling ruble, oil price losses and other disruptions. … the enforced modesty has not yet driven the super wealthy out of Russia or against President Vladimir Putin, who […]
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For reasons that are far beyond my ability to explain, Russia is a place that attracts clichés in much the same way that a bright flame attracts moths. Having always found the place confusing, contradictory, and vaguely mysterious, Westerners have settled upon a few choice quotes that supposedly summarize Russia in its entirety. Even today, with the welcome rise of […]
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[“Predicting the Future With Russia’s Economic Nostradamus. (Mikhail Dmitriyev)” – The Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – March 18, 2015] The Moscow Times talks with former Putin Deputy Economy Minister Mikhail Dmitriyev about unfolding changes in the Russian economy, as well as the interaction between foreign and military policy, economic pressures, political trends and public attitudes towards the Russian government and the […]
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[“Ruble gain brings hope to Russian economy” – AFP – March 30, 2015] AFP covers variations in the value of the ruble amidst Russia’s ongoing economic crisis. It has been a torrid time of late for the Russian economy, as the fallout from Ukraine and tumbling oil prices have plunged the country into financial crisis. However, an unexpected recent rebound by […]
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(PONARS Eurasia – ponarseurasia.org – Mark Kramer, Director, Cold War Studies Program, and Senior Fellow, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University – March 11, 2015 – article also appeared at ponarseurasia.org/article/sanctions-and-regime-survival) Some debates never die; they just get replayed. After the Soviet Army invaded Afghanistan in late December 1979, the United States imposed economic sanctions against the USSR. The Russian Federation since […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – MOSCOW BLOG: Ben Aris in Moscow – March 27, 2015) Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 26 marked 15 years since he was elected as Boris Yeltsin’s successor by summoning the heads of the Federal Security Service (FSB) and warning them sternly that there was a western conspiracy to undermine and contain Russia. Putin struck a dark […]
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Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited several Latin American nations this week to seek trade opportunities that could offset US efforts to puncture Russia’s economy. Russia took its global charm offensive to Latin America this week, as the Kremlin seeks to counter Western sanctions over its policies in eastern Ukraine and Crimea. … http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2015/0326/Russia-heads-to-America-s-backyard-to-find-salve-for-sanctions
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When it comes to inflicting economic pain on Russia, the Kremlin may be doing a better job than Western sanctions. Just don’t tell that to the Russian people, who overwhelmingly blame the West for a deepening recession that has parts of central Moscow starting to look like a ghost town. Prices are soaring. The ruble is dropping. And Russian living […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – March 27, 2015) Russians increasingly believe in an economic system founded on government planning rather than the free market, a poll by the independent Levada Center showed. Fifty-five percent of respondents said that a country’s economic system should be based on “government planning and allocation,” the pollster said in a report this week. On the other […]
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MOSCOW, March 26. /TASS/. Russian Labor and Social Protection Ministry’s idea of stripping employed senior citizens whose annual remuneration is one million roubles (about $16,500) or more of their old age security pension has sparked a debate in Russian society. In the context of Russia’s modern realities one million roubles is a sum enough to buy an average class car, […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Delphine d’Amora – March 27, 2015) The cost of medicine is rising fast in Russia, hitting consumers and challenging a government that has made its reputation as a bulwark of social stability. The ruble’s fall of nearly 40 percent to the U.S. dollar and 22 percent to the euro since the beginning of 2014 has sent […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Evgenia Pismennaya and Ilya Arkhipov – March 25, 2015) It was Dec. 16 — the day Russian traders would later christen Black Tuesday — and the ruble was in a freefall. “Intervene! Intervene!” a central bank official shouted. Governor Elvira Nabiullina watched the currency on her tablet screen react to her emergency rate increase. No, she said, […]
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