The difficult economic conditions have forced Russian businesses to reassess, which could be a good thing in the long run. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Ben Aris – December 21, 2015) Sanctions imposed by Western nations on Russia over its involvement in the Ukraine crisis and absorption of Crimea have hurt the country’s economy, but not mortally wounded […]
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Reuters covers Russian President Vladimir Putin’s admission at a press conference that Russian personnel are present in conflict-torn eastern Ukraine, even while disputing whether that meant regular Russian troops were present. … Putin said … Russia did have personnel in eastern Ukraine who were carrying out certain military tasks but denied Moscow had deployed regular troops …. ‘We never said […]
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Former Deputy Finance Minister and former deputy governor of the Russian Central Bank Sergei Alexashenko speaks about the economic challenges currently facing Russia, including sanctions, crisis management, the need for reform, and the country’s dependence on oil. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – MIKHAIL BOLOTIN, SPECIAL TO RBTH – December 16, 2015) RBTH: Recently economic experts have been speaking […]
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(Interfax – December 11, 2015) The EU restrictive measures against Russia may not be prolonged on Dec. 14, a high-ranking EU official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told reporters in Brussels on Dec. 11. The source assumed that the sanctions will be prolonged fully, but not necessarily on Dec. 14. The source said such a decision does not have […]
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CNN reports on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s political standing and the reaction by the Russian citizenry to the impact of sanctions, embargoes and economic downturn. Russia’s middle class has had a tough time recently, but they aren’t blaming … Putin for it. [In addition to restrictions on certain travel and imports] … The ruble has lost more than half its […]
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(RIA Novosti – December 8, 2015) Russian ambassador to the People’s Republic of China Andrey Denisov has denied that Russia’s “eastward turn” – its visible attempt to improve relations with countries in the Asia-Pacific region, primarily China – was a response to the introduction of sanctions against Russia by several Western countries; rather, he said, it had been mooted over […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anna Dolgov – December 2, 2015) An economic recession and soaring grocery prices have prompted Russians to go online to trade household items for food, with scores of websites facilitating a barter system cropping up around the country. Russia’s main social network, VKontakte, has an array of online groups, targeting various cities, where local inhabitants […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Volodymyr Verbyany, Jake Rudnitsky – November 30, 2015) Your enemy’s bank is your friend. Or so Ukraine wants to believe after giving Russian banks a pass more than a year and a half into a separatist insurgency it blames on the Kremlin. Banks including state-run lenders sanctioned by the U.S. and the European Union have clung […]
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Reuters covers remarks by former Russian oil tycoon, former prison inmate, political activist Mikhail Khodorkovsky. President Vladimir Putin will survive Western sanctions and lower oil prices but the Kremlin chief has brought such stagnation that Russia could eventually collapse, former tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky said …. Russia’s richest man, who was arrested in 2003 after falling foul of Putin and released […]
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The Wall Street Journal reports on the performance of Russian corporate bonds. From adversity comes opportunity. But given the degree of adversity facing Russia at the end of 2014—sanctions over Ukraine, plummeting oil prices, a collapsing currency—it is surprising quite how much of an investment opportunity it has turned out to be this year. Russian corporate bonds are the best […]
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(opendemocracy.net – Nelli Babayan – November 23, 2015) Nelli Babayan is Fellow at the Transatlantic Academy, German Marshall Fund US and Associate Fellow at the Center for Transnational, Foreign and Security Policy at Freie Universität Berlin. Her latest book is Democratic Transformation and Obstruction: EU, US, and Russia in the South Caucasus. Find her on Twitter @nellibabayan As opinion polls […]
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(Interfax – November 21, 2015) Russia’s GDP would have been 1.5 percent higher if sanctions had not been imposed against Moscow, former Russian Finance Minister and Committee of Civil Initiatives Chairman Alexei Kudrin has said, pointing out that no positive effect from the sanctions has been seen in any industry. “The sanctions have considerably complicated the situation in the country. […]
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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, November 20, 2015) Ukrainian commentator Vitaly Portnikov argues that the goal of the Ukrainian government should not be “the restoration of territorial integrity at any price but rather the undermining of the economy of the aggressor country and the collapse of Putin’s political regime” (rus.newsru.ua/columnists/19nov2015/voprossroka.html). Western media say that the EU and […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Maria Levitov – November 18, 2015) Reining in stimulus just became a lot easier for at least one of the world’s policy makers: Elvira Nabiullina. Signs this week that Russia’s isolation in global politics may be coming to an end set off a rally in the nation’s assets as investors bet sanctions over Ukraine will get […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – November 5, 2015) It’s difficult to quantify the damage Western economic sanctions have done to Russia. The country’s slump is almost exclusively due to a drop in oil prices, which has led to a sharp currency devaluation and a jump in interest rates. Yet the sanctions have fueled the Kremlin’s paranoia, lending Russia’s […]
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MOSCOW. Oct 28 (Interfax) – It is currently difficult to call the Russian banking system healthy, Sberbank (MOEX: SBER) deputy CEO Bella Zlatkis believes. “If two or three banking institutions in the country close per week, if this number increases by tens in a year, if a whole number of banking institutions are having problems with capital and liquidity, I […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – October 23, 2015) The European Union has prohibited its financial institutions from publishing analytical research of the Russian banks under EU sanctions, the European Commission said in a statement. The European Commission, the EU’s legislative body, prohibited publishing research on Russian banks because the analysis contained in the reports could help investors in Russia make […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – October 22, 2015) Things are pretty grim in the Russian economy, but some of the country’s leading economists are wondering if Russia Inc has turned the corner some 10 months after the biggest devaluation of the ruble since the 1998 crash. “September seems to have been the starting point […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Jason Corcoran in Moscow – October 21, 2015) Dedicated-Russia funds have become a rare species in the years following the 2008-2009 economic crisis. The country’s subsequent low growth, its current recession along with tumbling commodity prices and political isolation over Ukraine have almost led to their extinction. But what has become of these fund […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews – October 19, 2015) Large investors are pessimistic about the outlook for the Russian market, according to a report by Global Counsel, which shows that some are reducing their exposure. Although some groups are holding their options open, and some are even seizing counter-cyclical opportunities, unless the business environment improves more groups […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – October 20, 2015) Unpredictable lawmaking is undermining Russia’s ability to attract foreign investors, the Foreign Investment Advisory Council (FIAC) – a group of the biggest foreign companies working in Russia – told Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Monday. A report by financial services group and FIAC member EY (Ernst & Young) into […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Ott Ummelas, Anna Andrianova – October 18, 2015) There may be a silver lining for the Bank of Russia in another batch of grim consumer data. While Governor Elvira Nabiullina has set a course for monetary easing to match slowing inflation, policy makers last month paused their easing cycle for the first time in 2015. The […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Chris Miller in Moscow – October 15, 2015) Though Vladimir Yakunin was sacked from his post as head of state-owned Russian Railways back in August, the shock is still reverberating through Russia’s biggest and most powerful companies. A long-time friend of President Vladimir Putin, Yakunin was thought to be one of the most influential […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – October 15, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/investors-warm-lukewarm-russia] The political rhetoric between the Kremlin and the West remains fraught since the start of the Russian bombing campaign in Syria, but investors have started to warm to Russia as an investment destination; Russian bonds are the best performing in the world year […]
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(Interfax – October 15, 2015) Russians have had to adjust their consumer behavior to the ongoing economic crisis. Some 62 percent of them have switched to buying cheaper food and goods (against 58 percent in January), the Russian Public Opinion Study Center (VTsIOM) said. The number of people who have been buying fewer goods and spending less on their entertainment […]
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Participants of the recent International Investment Forum in Sochi say that U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia are impeding international investment in innovative start-ups, with foreign companies not aware of what they can do under the new conditions. Meanwhile, according to Russian observers, several new innovative clusters may be created in Russia, including in Sochi. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – […]
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Reuters covers a recent Russian regional election in which the ruling United Russia party suffered defeat. When Communist Sergei Levchenko beat the incumbent from President Vladimir Putin’s party to become governor of Irkutsk region in Siberia on Sunday, even the voters who backed him were surprised: the Kremlin doesn’t lose elections. The result is said to raise questions about the […]
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The Russian government has announced that it is seeking to source equipment for offshore oil production from new countries due to the impact of sanctions by the European Union and the United States. However, as experts note, the development of Arctic fields is being hindered by low oil prices. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH – […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anastasia Bazenkova – September 25, 2015) A dramatic decline in consumer spending in recession-hit Russia has not scared foreign retailers away from starting new business in the country, research published on Thursday found. In the three months from July to September, 14 new foreign retailers have set up shop in Russia – two more than […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – September 25, 2015) The Russian government may spend 240 billion rubles ($3.6 billion) on a national food stamp program to support an estimated 15-16 million Russian citizens whose poverty has deepened amid an economic slump, the RIA Novosti news agency reported Thursday. To deal with an economic shock that has spurred inflation into double digits […]
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(Oilprice.com – Colin Chilcoat – September 24, 2015) Winning and losing is largely a matter of perspective, and that’s no different in today’s low oil price environment. Still, certain data and metrics can provide a more incorruptible viewpoint on the carnage, or lack thereof. In that regard-and to the surprise of many-count Russia’s oil majors among the current winners. Ranked […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – September 24, 2015) Russian banks are in a world of pain. Real incomes are falling for the first time since President Vladimir Putin has been on the job, and sanctions have cut banks off from their main source of long-term cheap financing. The upshot is that Russia’s financial sector […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – September 23, 2015) The value of goods imported by Russia from outside the former Soviet Union tumbled 39 percent in the first eight months of this year compared to the same period in 2014, as a deep recession cut into the country’s buying power. According to preliminary data from the Federal Customs […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Olga Tanas, Andrey Biryukov – September 22, 2015) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s promises made as recently as last year may be the latest casualty of the collapse in oil prices. Putin instructed the government on Tuesday to study the possibility of steering into the budget some of the gains by exporters from ruble devaluation, without losing […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Anna Andrianova – September 17, 2015) A slump in Russian consumption showed no letup last month while a drop in investment stretched into the longest in two decades, highlighting the toll on the economy from lower oil prices and the latest wave of ruble depreciation. Real wages declined 9.8 percent from a year earlier after a […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – September 18, 2015) Russians’ wages fell in August at their fastest pace since the start of the year, according to official data published Thursday that also showed a continuing slump in capital investment, industrial output and retail spending. Russia’s economy has been shaken by a collapse in the price of oil since summer 2014 and […]
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Russia, already facing recession and falling oil prices, prepares for the possibility that Western sanctions may remain in place for years to come. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – David Miller, Jared Feldschreiber, special to RBTH – September 17, 2015) Russia is girding itself for the possibility of a long haul under Western economic sanctions, as officials in Moscow […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – September 15, 2015) [Charts here bne.eu/content/story/foot-traffic-russias-leading-shopping-malls-tumbles] Foot traffic at Russia’s leading malls is collapsing because of the grinding crisis that has seen real incomes fall the first time in a decade and a half, according to the most accurate index measuring Russians’ shopping habits. Moscow boasts some of the […]
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MOSCOW. Sept 13 (Interfax) – The obsession of the West with sanctions and not only with regard to Russia will become one of the subjects of the speech of President Vladimir Putin at the jubilee session of the UN General Assembly in New York, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has announced. “We assume that Putin will express our principled evaluations […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory – September 11, 2015) Chris Weafer is a founding partner of Macro-Advisory, which helps investors cut though the noise & focus on underlying trends, real political risks, & opportunities in Russia/CIS, Eurasia Union, & Mongolia. Follow him on @ChrisWeafer One of the slogans now regularly deployed to describe Russia’s current […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – September 2, 2015) Economic crisis and the resulting poverty, inflation and growing inequality are more important to Russians than the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine, a poll conducted by the independent Levada Center revealed on Monday. While the civil strife in eastern Ukraine still features on the list of Russians’ top 10 concerns, it was […]
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If a foreign company in Russia repeats the recent success of Italian energy company in Egypt and discovers a strategic deposit on Russian territory, it will be able to develop that deposit. Experts expect the relevant amendments to the Russian legislation to attract investment in exploration. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Anna Kuchma, RBTH – September 1, 2015) […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Anna Andrianova, Olga Tanas – August 25, 2015) Russia’s government is starting to face reality. While insisting the worst of its recession was over, it cut its economic forecasts for this year and next amid the renewed plunge in energy prices and persistent sanctions over Ukraine. Economists said the revisions fell short of their estimates predicting […]
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Amid turmoil on global financial markets, the Russian ruble fell to a historic low against the U.S. dollar on Aug. 24, while the key stock market index, the RTS, dropped 6 percent. Russian analysts say that there is little room for optimism while oil prices remain low. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan – August 25, 2015) […]
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According to a new report by Central Bank analysts, sanctions against Russia have not played a significant role in the decline of Russia’s economy, with experts agreeing that low oil prices are principally to blame. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH – August 24, 2015) The introduction of Western sanctions against Russia is responsible for only […]
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In an interview with TASS, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Ambassador Victoria Nuland reportedly focused upon U.S.-Russia relations, Ukraine, Iran’s nuclear program and visa problems for Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko. I would argue that since the breakup of the Warsaw pact, since the breakup of the Soviet Union the entire orientation of US policy, […]
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