NEWSWATCH Chatham House/James Sherr: To Support Ukraine, West Must Go Beyond Sanctions. Providing critical military assistance to Ukraine would devalue Russia’s advantage in negotiations.
Writing for Chatham House, James Sherr addresses Western support for Ukraine admidst the Russo-Ukrainian War.
… the West has acted on the premise that economic sanctions would induce Russia to modify its actions. But while sanctions do constrain capacity, they do not constrain behaviour. Their immediate impact is bearable … they do nothing to diminish Russia’s most usable and effective form of power: military force. … the case for strengthening Ukraine’s defences is compelling.
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In many quarters, it is now axiomatic that a refocusing and enhancement of Western assistance will ‘provoke’ Putin into a dramatic escalation of the conflict. The risk exists. Yet there is nothing in Putin’s record to support this assumption. What has repeatedly provoked him however is weakness and bluff.
… there is no such thing as a risk-free policy. Failure to modify an ineffective policy invites at least as much danger as a more robust course. Today’s dangers are created by Russia’s political aims, its military actions and its increasingly febrile and conspiratorial view of the world. … within these ominous parameters, the Kremlin has behaved according to a rational calculus. In this calculus, no respect is shown to opponents who are stronger, but unwilling to use their strength.
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