Russia Beyond the Headlines: Loss of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex will cost Russia $938 million

File Photo of Russian Nuclear Missile on Mobile Launcher Near Woods

(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Nikolai Litovkin, RBTH – July 23, 2014) The business newspaper Kommersant has reported the findings of a special working group of the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos), which has quantified the costs of ceased collaboration with Ukrainian military-industrial enterprises. Russia will need to spend $938 million (33 billion rubles) to mitigate the negative […]

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Obama’s Reluctance to Arming Rebels Stiffened by Airliner Strike

File Photo of Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama Seated Before Russian and U.S. Flags

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Margaret Talev – July 23, 2014) The downing of a Malaysian passenger aircraft in Ukraine may stiffen Obama administration resistance to providing heavy armaments to rebels — or even besieged governments — seeking U.S. help in hotspots around the world. In the wake of the Malaysia Airlines (MAS) disaster, President Barack Obama has raised the risk […]

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RIA Novosti: Ukrainian Communist Party to Be Dissolved Thursday

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KIEV, July 23 (RIA Novosti) – Ukrainian parliament speaker Oleksandr Turchynov announced that the Communist Party, who occupy 23 seats in the Verkhovna Rada, would be dissolved on Thursday. On Tuesday, the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, made changes to its rules that would allow the speaker of the house to dissolve the Communist party. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signed a […]

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Interfax: Ukrainian Communist Party leader attacked in Rada

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KYIV. July 23 (Interfax) – Petro Symonenko, leader of the Ukrainian Communist Party faction, was attacked by parliamentarians during the Wednesday morning parliament session. After a proposal was made to remove Symonenko from the hall, deputies from the Svoboda faction began pushing him from the hall for his statements “on the killing by Ukrainian military of the country’s citizens for […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2014-#159 contents with links :: Tuesday 22 July 2014

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… 38. Russian Military Reform: Dmitry Gorenburg, Who shot down MH 17?
39. CNN.com: Andrew Kuchins, Act now, or face war in Ukraine.
40. Paul Goble: Window on Eurasia: Convinced of His Own Exceptionalism, Putin is Both ‘a Pragmatist and a Fool,’ Milshtein Says.
41. Stratfor.com: George Friedman, Can Putin Survive?
42. Moscow Times editorial: Moscow Won’t Back Down on Ukraine. …

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Convinced of His Own Exceptionalism, Putin is Both ‘a Pragmatist and a Fool,’ Milshtein Says

File Photo of Vladimir Putin Sitting at Desk

(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, July 22, 2014) In a commentary entitled “Forewarned and Armed,” Ilya Milshtein argues that tragically “there are no particular reasons to hope that Putin will change his approach” in Ukraine. Instead, the Moscow analyst says, he will proceed in ways that reflect his beliefs in his own exceptionalism and in his ability […]

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Russia Beyond the Headlines: MH17 disaster leaves Moscow’s international relations on slippery slope

Russian Foreign Ministry Building Tower file photo

(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Marina Starodubtseva, Nikolai Litovkin, RBTH – July 22, 2014) The Boeing 777 tragedy, which claimed the lives of 298 people, has seriously changed the course of the political game surrounding Ukraine. We asked the leading Russian experts to assess how the political situation changed after the events of July 17 and how relations […]

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Moscow Won’t Back Down on Ukraine

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(Moscow Times editorial – themoscowtimes.com – July 22, 2014) Despite hopes that the tragedy of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 would be a game-changer in Ukraine’s simmering conflict, days later it is clear that this is highly unlikely. Nothing will be dramatically altered by the results of the investigation into the catastrophe. No matter who – Ukrainian military or pro-Russian separatists […]

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Stratfor: Can Putin Survive?

Vladimir Putin file photo

(Stratfor.com – George Friedman – July 21, 2014) There is a general view that Vladimir Putin governs the Russian Federation as a dictator, that he has defeated and intimidated his opponents and that he has marshaled a powerful threat to surrounding countries. This is a reasonable view, but perhaps it should be re-evaluated in the context of recent events. Ukraine […]

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Why Putin Can’t Afford to Dump the Ukrainian Separatists

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Alexey Eremenko – July 22, 2014) While Russia’s support of Ukrainian separatists has led to its worst standoff with the West in post-Soviet history, the Kremlin cannot afford to disown them because that would spell a major geopolitical defeat and alienate the jingoistic masses at home, Russian pundits said. The rebels are Moscow’s last remaining […]

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Interfax: Moscow expects Boeing flight recorders to be given to ICAO experts – Russian Foreign Ministry

Russian Foreign Ministry Building Tower file photo

MOSCOW. July 22 (Interfax) – Moscow is satisfied with the southeastern Ukraine militia giving flight recorders of the crashed plane to Malaysian representatives and expects they will be transferred in the future to the international expert group under the aegis of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the Russian Foreign Ministry posted a statement on its website. “We express satisfaction […]

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Ukrainian Cows Kidnapped, Trafficked to Russia, Police Say

File Photo of U.S. Dairy Cows

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – July 18, 2014) Against the backdrop of blistering diplomatic tensions between Moscow and Kiev, a 172-head herd of cows has been illegally trafficked across the Russian border, the Luhansk region branch of Ukraine’s Interior Ministry claimed Thursday. The herd went missing Wednesday night from a farm in Luhansk region’s Belovodsky district, Tatyana Pogukai, the head […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2014-#158 contents with links :: Monday 21 July 2014

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1. Financial Times: Thomas Graham, To stop Putin the west should repair Ukraine’s economy. Those who want Russia punished with tougher sanctions are misguided.
2. Carnegie Moscow Center: Dmitri Trenin, Midsummer Blues.
3. Euromaidan Press/Ukrainska Pravda: The Klimkin interview: terrorism, war, EU, Merkel and Putin. (new Ukraine foreign minister)
4. Reuters: Fighting flares in Ukraine as crash investigators arrive …

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Interfax: Russia did not provide Buk missile systems to Donbas militia – Gen. Staff

File Photo of Buk-1 SAM

MOSCOW. July 21 (Interfax) – Russia did not provide the militia in southeastern Ukraine with Buk missile systems, the Russian Defense Ministry said. “The Russian Federation did not hand Buk missile systems, or other kinds of weapons or military hardware, to the militia,” said Gen. Andrei Kartopolov, chief of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operations Department.  

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Interfax: Water supplies to Donetsk stopped, city has water to last five days at most

File Photo of Water Facet with Drop of Water Coming Out

KYIV. July 21 (Interfax) – Donbas Water Company has stopped three pumping stations bringing water to the Seversky Donets – Donbas channel due to damage inflicted during battles, the press office of DTEK energy holding company of Ukrainian businessman Rinat Akhmetov said. “Due to the three pumping stations which have stopped pumping water to the Seversky Donets – Donbas channel, […]

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United States Assessment of the Downing of Flight MH17 and its Aftermath

File Photo of U.S. Embassy in Kiev, Ukraine, with U.S. Flag on Pole and U.S. Military

Embassy of the United States, Kyiv Ukraine July 19, 2014 We assess that Flight MH17 was likely downed by a SA-11 surface-to-air missile from separatist-controlled territory in eastern Ukraine. We base this judgment on several factors. Over the past month, we have detected an increasing amount of heavy weaponry to separatist fighters crossing the border from Russia into Ukraine. Last […]

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New Post on Russian Guilt; “Here Are The Intercepted Transcripts Indicating Russian Rebels Shot Down Malaysian Flight MH17”

File Photo of Buk-1 SAM

[featured image is file photo] Subject: FW: new post on Russian guilt Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2014 From: Anders Aslund <AAslund@PIIE.COM> David: Another version of the same evidence. Best, Anders From: paul roderick gregory [pgregory@stanford.edu] Sent: Saturday, July 19, 2014 3:27 PM To: Anders Aslund; Gregory Paul Subject: new post on Russian guilt http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/07/19/what-more-smoking-guns-are-needed-for-mh17-the-worlds-first-sam-terrorism/ Forbes.com July 19, 2014 Here Are […]

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The truth about MH17

File Photo of Buk-1 SAM

[featured image is file photo] Subject: The truth about MH17 Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2014 From: Anders Aslund <AAslund@PIIE.COM> David: I hope you will lead with this excellent SBU video with English text next time. You can hardly get a better view of the reality of the MH17. http://www.sbu.gov.ua/sbu/control/en/publish/article?art_id=129088&cat_id=35317 Best, Anders [note from JRL web editor: the article linked to […]

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The Nightmare of Being a Russian-Language Ukrainian Playwright

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – John Freedman – July 21, 2014) “I don’t know what to do about it, John. It is a nightmare and it is hell. And something in me has been broken irreparably.” Thus responded Maksym Kurochkin, a Ukrainian Russian-language playwright, to my question about what he is experiencing these days. As his comments starkly suggest, recent […]

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RIA Novosti: Kiev Says Needs Almost $780 Million to Continue Special Operation

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MOSCOW, July 22 (RIA Novosti) – Ukraine’s Finance Ministry has asked the parliament to earmark 9.1 billion hryvnia ($780 million) to finance the special operation against independence supporters in the country’s east, the ministry’s press service said. Finance Minister Oleksandr Shlapak said some 6.8 billion hryvnia ($583 million) was allocated for the operation in March. The operation later prompted an […]

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Putin Calls for International Access to Airliner Crash Site

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anna Dolgov – July 21, 2014) President Vladimir Putin called for international access to the crash site of a Malaysian airliner in rebel-controlled eastern Ukraine, while the leaders of the U.S. and EU nations accused him of failing to back up his words with action and warned of additional sanctions when an EU panel convenes […]

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RIA Novosti: OSCE Monitors Inspect Train with Bodies of MH17 Air Crash Victims

File Photo of OSCE Banners

TOREZ (Ukraine), July 20 (RIA Novosti) – Monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have arrived at the railway station near the crash site of the downed Malaysia Airlines jet to inspect the train that is due to transport the victims’ bodies to Donetsk, a RIA Novosti correspondent reports on the ground. Leonid Baranov, a senior […]

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Ukraine crisis rending the globe

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(Business New Europe MOSCOW BLOG – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – July 17, 2014) The crisis in Ukraine is tearing at global relations on several levels. The tension in the West was highlighted yet again by the lopsided sanctions imposed on Russia on July 16. While Washington targeted Russian banks and oil companies, Europe was unwilling to follow […]

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RIA Novosti: All Passengers’ Belongings Safe in Place of Malaysia Airlines Plane Crash – OSCE

File Photo of OSCE Banners

MOSCOW, July 19 (RIA Novosti) – The belongings of the passengers killed in a Malaysia Airlines Boeing-777 crash in eastern Ukraine have been safely preserved, a representative of the special mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Ukraine, Michael Bochurkiv, said Saturday, adding that no distortion by the militia in the region has been noted. […]

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RIA Novosti: US Conclusions on Boeing Crash in Ukraine Resemble Statements on Iraq’s Weapons – Rogozin

Dmitry Rogozin file photo

MOSCOW, July 19 (RIA Novosti) – Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin compared Washington’s hasty conclusions on the cause of the Malaysia Airlines Boeing-777 crash in Ukraine to its statement on Iraq’s possession of weapons of mass destruction made years ago. “The White House has established the guilty even before the investigation of the Boeing accident. Earlier, the White House […]

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RIA Novosti: EC Unsure Why US Believes Missile Shot Down Malaysian Plane in Ukraine – Source

File Photo of Buk-1 SAM

BRUSSELS, July 18 (RIA Novosti) – The European Commission does not know on what basis the United States concluded that a Malaysian Airlines passenger plane, which crashed in eastern Ukraine, was shot down by a missile, a source in the EC told RIA Novosti on Friday. “One must ask them. The European Commission does not have the data of where […]

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RIA Novosti: Medvedev Says U.S. Sanctions against Moscow Won’t Bust Russian Economy

Dmitry Medvedev file photo

LIPETSK, July 18 (RIA Novosti) – US sanctions imposed on Russia are restraints but will not cripple the country’s economy, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Friday. “This is a program of limiting our country, or as is accepted to say, restraining [Russia],” Medvedev told students at a metallurgical plant in Lipetsk. “Sanctions won’t cripple our economy, everything will be […]

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RIA Novosti: Donetsk Leader Calls for Ceasefire with Kiev to Investigate Malaysia Airlines Crash

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MOSCOW, July 18 (RIA Novosti) – The authorities from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine are discussing a ceasefire with Kiev in order to investigate the Malaysia Airlines passenger plane disaster, the republic’s prime minister told RIA Novosti by telephone Friday. DPR Prime Minister Alexander Borodai said that a meeting would be held Friday afternoon with the participation […]

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Interfax: Putin blames Ukraine for Boeing crash

File Photo of Vladimir Putin Sitting at Desk

MOSCOW. July 18 (Interfax) – Russian President Vladimir Putin believes Ukraine is responsible for the Malaysia Airline plane crash on Thursday. “Definitely, the state in whose airspace this has happened bears responsibility for this terrible tragedy,” the Russian chief of state said late on Thursday night at a conference on economic issues. He proposed to start the conference with a […]

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Interfax: Russia confirms operation of Ukrainian long-range defense systems on day of MH17 crash

File Photo of Buk-1 SAM

(Interfax – July 18, 2014) The route and crash site of yesterday’s downed Malaysian Boeing 777 jet falls within the zone targeted by two Ukrainian squadrons operating a S-200 long-range air defense system and three squadrons operating a Buk-M1 medium-range air defense system, a spokesperson for the Russian Defense Ministry told Interfax-AVN on Friday. Throughout July 17, Russian aviation systems […]

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NEWSLINK: IHS Jane’s analysis of the capabilities of Ukraine’s missile systems

File Photo of Buk-1 SAM

[“IHS Jane’s analysis of the capabilities of Ukraine’s missile systems” – IHS – press.ihs.com – July 17, 2014] The IHS Jane’s Missiles & Rockets editor considers the shoot-down of the Malaysian civilian airliner in eastern Ukraine. An airliner cruising at around 30,000 ft altitude would be well above the coverage of shoulder-fired man-portable missile systems … * * * Downing an airliner flying […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2014-#156 contents with links :: Friday 18 July 2014

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[check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List JRL 2014-#156 :: Friday 18 July 2014 E-Mail: davidjohnson@starpower.net A project of the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George  Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs: www.ieres.org JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL on Facebook: facebook.com/russialist  JRL on Twitter: twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi Support JRL: russialist.org/funding.php 1. ITAR-TASS: Militias do not have Ukrainian Buk missile system – […]

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NEWSLINK: World leaders demand answers after airliner downed over Ukraine with 298 dead

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[“World leaders demand answers after airliner downed over Ukraine with 298 dead” – Reuters – Anton Zverev – July 18, 2014] Reuters covers the shoot-down of the Malaysian civilian jumbo jet in eastern Ukraine and its aftermath, including calls for an international investigation. World leaders demanded an international investigation into the shooting down of a Malaysian airliner with 298 people … over eastern […]

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RIA Novosti: Ukraine Predicts Bilateral Trade with Russia to Cease

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

KIEV, July 18 (RIA Novosti) – Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk on Friday predicted that bilateral trade between Russia and Ukraine could come to a full stop over the complicated relations between the two countries and European sanctions imposed on Russia. “My prediction is the following: preparations reqired for an almost complete limitation of trade relations with Russia in a […]

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NEWSLINK: Rival Claims Over Crashed Malaysia Plane’s Recorders

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[“Rival Claims Over Crashed Malaysia Plane’s Recorders” – New York Times – Sabrina Tavernise, Keith Bradsher – July 18, 2014] The New York Times reports on investigations in the aftermath of the shoot-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in eastern Ukraine, including questions about who will gain custody of the doomed jet’s data recorders. The grisly scene of the crash of […]

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NEWSLINK: Ukraine’s emergency services find two black boxes at crash site – Interfax-Ukraine

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[“Ukraine’s emergency services find two black boxes at crash site- – Interfax-Ukraine” – Reuters – KIEV, July 18, 2014] Reuters reports on claims that black boxes have been found near the crash site of a Malaysian airliner in eastern Ukraine: Ukraine’s emergency services have found two black boxes at the crash site of a Malaysian airliner, Interfax-Ukraine quoted an adviser to the governor […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2014-#155 contents with links :: Wednesday 16 July 2014

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… 21. Paul Goble: Window on Eurasia: Russians and Ukrainians Becoming Like Serbs and Croatians, Solovey Says.
22. RFE/RL: Brian Whitmore, Slobodan’s Ghost.
23. www.foreignpolicy.com: Jeffrey Lewis, The only way to contain Moscow is to understand that there’s a still cold warrior in the Kremlin. …

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Slobodan’s Ghost

File Photo of Slobodan Milosevic at Table in Profile, Surrounded by Officials and Others

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Brian Whitmore – July 14, 2014) There’s a specter haunting Vladimir Putin — the specter of Slobodan Milosevic. As the Ukraine crisis has unfolded, it has become fashionable — and even a bit of a fetish — to compare the Kremlin leader to the late Serbian dictator. Writing recently in “The New Republic,” Vera Mironova and Maria Snegovaya noted how […]

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Russians and Ukrainians Becoming Like Serbs and Croatians, Solovey Says

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, July 16, 2014) The conflict in southeastern Ukraine is becoming like the Yugoslav war with the Russians and Ukrainians becoming like the Serbs and Croatians, developments which mean that “we cannot now even imagine the consequences” of this war for the region and the world, according to Valery Solovey of MGIMO. In […]

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RIA Novosti: Ninety Percent of Militia in Eastern Ukraine Local Citizens – Self-Defense Forces Leader

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HORLIVKA (DONETSK REGION), July 16 (RIA Novosti) – Ninety percent of the independence supporters fighting alongside the government forces in the southeast of Ukraine are local citizens, Horlivka self-defense militia’s leader Ihor Bezler said in an interview with RIA Novosti. “Those Russians who survived the massacre in the airport [on May 26] came to me, they are still here. There […]

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INTERVIEW: Kruk fears “frozen conflict” in Ukraine as Russia spreads disorder in Europe

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Liam Halligan in London – July 16, 2014) Kateryna Kruk was born in Rivne, Western Ukraine in 1991. After studying for a Master’s Degree in Poland, she returned to Kyiv last autumn as the Euromaidan protests began. Determined to shift Ukraine towards Western Europe, Kruk became heavily involved in the protest movement. Tweeting extensively […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2014-#154 contents with links :: Monday 14 July 2014

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… 28. Wall Street Journal: Stephen Sestanovich, What the Senate Gets Wrong About Ukraine.
29. The Economist: War in Ukraine. A mounting toll.
30. The American Interest: Lilia Shevtsova, Crisis in Ukraine Blurred Lines Between War and Peace.
31. Reuters: Putin’s goal is to showcase Russia at 2018 World Cup. …

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Ukraine Could Recover Crimea Only If Russia Were Seriously Weakened, Moscow Analyst Says

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, July 14, 2014) The Ukrainian government lacks the resources to recover Crimea, according to a Moscow military analyst, and could do so only if Russia were to “weaken to the point that it simply could not defend” the peninsula. Otherwise, talk about “the return of Crimea to Ukraine” is, in his words, […]

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War from Below and the Warlords of Ukraine

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(Gordon M. Hahn – gordon-hahn@sbcglobal.net – Analyst and Advisory Board Member, Geostrategic Forecasting Corporation, Chicago, Ill., www.geostrategicforecasting.com. Analyst, Rus Strategic Ltd., Prague, Czech Rep., Senior Researcher, Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies, Akribis Group, San Jose, Calif.) Vladimir Lenin once quipped that the Bolsheviks “found power lying in the streets and simply picked it up” in the Russian revolution. Ukraine’s Maidan […]

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Interfax: Romodanovsky: Almost 500,000 Ukrainians stay in Russia, over 30,000 seek asylum

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

(Interfax – July 14, 2014) More than 30,000 Ukrainian citizens have asked Russia for the refugee status and temporary asylum, Federal Migration Service head Konstantin Romodanovsky said. “A total of 30,495 persons have applied for a refugee status or a temporary asylum,” he told Vincent Cochetel, Director of the UNHCR Bureau for Europe, in Moscow on Monday. In all, about […]

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Editor of Russian-Language Newspaper Tortured and Killed in Eastern Ukraine

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anna Dolgov – July 14, 2014) The editor of two Russian-language newspapers who was seized last month in eastern Ukraine and who was believed to have been held by Ukrainian government forces has been found dead, his colleague said in an online post. The body of Sergei Dolgov, who was an editor at newspapers Hochu […]

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Who killed the United Ukraine?

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Subject: Who killed the United Ukraine? Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 08:38:56 +0000 From: Dmitry Babich <Babich@ruvr.ru> If you want my opinion on who is to blame for the tragedy in Ukraine, I can tell in two words: nationalist journalists. I have been reading Ukrainian press since the early 1990s. The amount of negative stereotypes about the people from Donetsk […]

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‘Isolating Russia’ in the Oil and Gas Sector

Oil Well file photo

(Gordon M. Hahn – gordon-hahn@sbcglobal.net – Analyst and Advisory Board Member, Geostrategic Forecasting Corporation, Chicago, Ill, geostrategicforecasting.com; Analyst, Rus Strategic Ltd., Prague, Czech Republic; Senior Researcher, Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies, Akribis Group, San Jose, Calif.) Since the Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March in the wake of the revolutionary takeover in Kiev in February, U.S. policy has rested on […]

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RIA Novosti: Russia Considering ‘Surgical Strike’ on Ukraine – Report

Kremlin and Saint Basil's File Photo

MOSCOW, July 14 (RIA Novosti) – Moscow is considering “surgical retaliatory strikes” on the Ukrainian territory after the standoff has led to first civilian victims among Russians on Russia’s territory, a Kremlin source told Kommersant Monday. “Our patience is not boundless,” the source told the newspaper, stressing that “this means not a massive action but exclusively targeted single strikes on […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2014-#153 contents with links :: Friday 11 July 2014

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… 2. The National Interest: David C. Hendrickson, Ukraine’s Dangerous Drift Towards Chaos. Tensions are rising; positions are hardening; the tension between “self-determination” and “territorial integrity” is coming into play. What happens now?
3. Moscow Times: Mark Adomanis, For Better or Worse, Russia Is Not Isolated. …

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