Why the next move will be decisive for Ukraine

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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Fyodor Lukyanov, special to RBTH – May 30, 2014) The author is editor in chief of Russia in Global Politics magazine. The election of Petro Poroshenko marks a watershed moment in the Ukrainian crisis. There are now clear opportunities for both Kiev and the self-proclaimed “people’s republics” in the east of the country […]

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Tax Breaks May Not Be Enough to Jumpstart Crimea’s Struggling Economy

File Photo of Cash, Coins, Line Graph

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Delphine d’Amora – May 30, 2014) In an effort to jumpstart Crimea’s faltering economy, a government plan could offer tax breaks and other juicy business conditions on the peninsula for the next half century – but even this may not be enough to attract businesses to the badly run-down region. Russian politicians began talking about […]

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What Are Eastern Ukraine’s (Legitimate) Grievances With Kyiv?

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(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Charles Recknagel – May 29, 2014) When Ukraine’s President-elect Petro Poroshenko visits Donetsk after his inauguration next month, he is likely to get an earful of demands from eastern Ukrainians who are unhappy with Kyiv. Here are five things to know about why many harbor grievances against the Ukrainian authorities and how Poroshenko might address them. What are the main grievances? […]

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Ukraine’s Road to Normalcy

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(Center for American Progress – americanprogress.org – Cory Welt [@cory_welt]) Cory Welt is an Adjunct Fellow at the Center for American Progress and the associate director and research professor at the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University‘s Elliott School of International Affairs After three months of interim rule, Ukraine once again has a democratically elected president at the […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2014-#120 contents with links :: Thursday 29 May 2014

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… 17. Wall Street Journal: Mikheil Saakashvili, The Tasks Ahead for Ukraine’s New President.
18. The Peterson Institute for International Economics: Anders Aslund, Dissolve the Ukrainian Parliament!
19. The Guardian: Miners hold pro-Russia rally in Donetsk. Around 300 coalminers march through city centre in show of support for self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic.
20. Moscow Times: Chechens in Ukraine Capture Public Interest. …

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RIA Novosti: Opinion: Ukrainian Crisis ‘Emboldened Opposition’ in Abkhazia

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WASHINGTON, May 29 (RIA Novosti), Lyudmila Chernova – The Ukrainian crisis has had an immense effect on the opposition in Abkhazia, Thomas de Waal, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told RIA Novosti. “It’s a very complex situation in Abkhazia, maybe the ‘Maidan Effect’ has emboldened the opposition and they have the impression that President Aleksandr Ankvab […]

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Gazprom’s Miller says Ukraine will owe $5.2 billion by June 7

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Tim Ash, Standard Bank – May 29, 2014) I guess that is the $2.5bn for the period to the end of March, another $1bn for April/May, and then $1.7bn in pre-payment for June, as previously demanded by Moscow. EU officials have suggested though that $4bn is owed to date, and under a provisional deal […]

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Interfax: Yanukovych on new authorities in Kyiv: bloody fireworks bad start for presidency

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ROSTOV-ON-DON. May 29 (Interfax) – Viktor Yanukovych has said that he believed the continuation of the violent operation in southeast Ukraine after the presidential election was a bad omen. “This is a very bad sign – to start a presidential path from such a bloody, deadly firework show which causes the ire and curses from mothers who see their children, […]

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Interfax: Kremlin reaffirms its “respect” for outcome of Ukraine election

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(Interfax – May 28, 2014) A senior aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin has reiterated the Kremlin’s position that it “respects” the outcome of Ukraine’s presidential election, won by confectionery tycoon Petro Poroshenko, the privately-owned Russian news agency Interfax reported on 28 May. “Our president has already said that, of course, we respect the results of the elections that took […]

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Poroshenko wins with 54.7% of vote – Turchynov

Petro Poroshenko file photo, with additional men in background, adapted from image at state.gov

KYIV. May 29 (Interfax) – The Ukrainian Central Elections Commission (CEC) has processed 100% of electronic reports from territorial electoral commissions in the presidential election and found out that Petro Poroshenko has won the race with 54.7% of the vote, interim Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov said. “After 100% of the electronic reports have been processed, Petro Oleksiyovych Poroshenko has won […]

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RIA Novosti: Medvedev Warns Strained Relations Could Have Economic Impact

File Photo of Cash, Coins, Line Graph

MOSCOW, May 29 (RIA Novosti) – Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned Thursday that new pitfalls in the country’s economic development cannot be ruled out due to strained ties with Ukraine and possibly with other ex-Soviet states. “The next few years will be marked by continued instability and strained environment in some markets. New risks cannot be completely ruled out, […]

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Chechens in Ukraine Capture Public Interest

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber – May 29, 2014) Amid deadly clashes between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian security forces in eastern Ukraine, reports that militants from the Russian republic of Chechnya have joined the insurgents have been buzzing on Russian social media for weeks. As videos and photos purportedly showing Chechen militants in Ukraine emerged on the web, […]

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EU proposed to repay to Gazprom half of Ukraine’s debt for April-May gas supplies as payment deadline nears

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – May 29, 2014) Gazprom, which earlier sent a prepayment bill to Ukraine, will limit gas supplies on June 3 if Kiev does not pay the advance bill for June, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said Wednesday at a meeting of President Vladimir Putin with the government, Prime reported. According to Miller, Ukraine purchased 3.5 billion […]

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NEWSLINK: Ferocity of Ukraine clashes increases risks for Putin

File Photo of Vladimir Putin Sitting at Desk

[“Ferocity of Ukraine clashes increases risks for Putin” – Reuters – Timothy Heritage – May 27, 2014] Reuters covers Ukraine’s efforts to use force to put down separatist militants in eastern Ukraine, and Russia’s potential reaction: An army assault on pro-Russian rebels in east Ukraine will not have taken Vladimir Putin by surprise, but the ferocity of the clashes may have – and […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2014-#119 contents with links :: Wednesday 28 May 2014

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[check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List :: 2014-#119 :: 28 May 2014 E-Mail: davidjohnson@starpower.net A project of the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George  Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs: www.ieres.org JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL on Facebook: facebook.com/russialist  JRL on Twitter: twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi Support JRL: russialist.org/funding.php To subscribe to the JRL email version, email David Johnson at davidjohnson@starpower.net 1. Wall Street Journal: […]

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Ukraine: The Real Energy Crisis Starts in June

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(Oilprice.com – Robert Bensh – May 27, 2014) Kiev is feeling emboldened by the successful election of a new Ukrainian president and a bloody surge against separatists in the east, but in just a few days, Russia says it will twist the gas spigot, and there’s very little Kiev can do to stop that. On June 3, Russia plans to […]

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Russia Bats Off Yatsenyuk’s Accusation of Gas Stealing

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Alexander Panin – May 28, 2014) Acting Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said Tuesday that Russia should return the $1 billion worth of gas that he said it stole while annexing Crimea, and accused Moscow of not being trustworthy when it comes to negotiating. “We would like to hear an explanation from Russia, including the […]

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What does it take to save Ukraine?

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(opendemocracy.net – Mikhail Molchanov – May 27, 2014) Mikhail A. Molchanov was born and raised in Ukraine, where he worked as Head of the Department of Public Administration at the National Academy of Public Administration under the President of Ukraine. He currently works as Professor of Political Science at St. Thomas University, Canada. He is the author of Political Culture […]

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Will Election Unite Ukraine? Dozens Killed in Airport Battle as President-Elect Vows Russia Talks

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(democracynow.org – May 27, 2014) At least 30 pro-Russian rebels have reportedly died in fierce fighting at the airport in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk. The Ukrainian government bombarded the airport with air strikes, then paratroopers, after rebels seized it on Monday. The fighting began just hours after the pro-European billionaire candy tycoon Petro Poroshenko won Ukraine’s first presidential […]

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Ukraine Update: Moscow will be looking for a sweet deal from Poroshenko

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Tim Ash, Standard Bank – May 28, 2014) Ukraine’s Central Electoral Commission has confirmed that Petro Poroshenko has in effect won the presidential election, with over 54% of votes, after 95% of votes have been tallied. The president elect has promised to engage in talks to bring peace to Ukraine Ð but not with […]

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RIA Novosti: Five Roadmaps for Solving Ukrainian Crisis

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MOSCOW, May 28 (RIA Novosti), Daria Chernyshova – Six months after protests began in Ukraine, the crisis in the country appears to be far from solved. In an attempt to adopt policies that could help deescalate the conflict and find a constructive path forward, top diplomats from Russia, the US, EU and representatives of Ukraine’s interim government met in April […]

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RIA Novosti: Nestle, Mars Could Buy Poroshenko’s Candy Company for $1.5 Bln

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MOSCOW, May 28 (RIA Novosti) – Food giants Mars and Nestle have been tipped as favorites to buy Ukraine’s leading chocolate firm Roshen, currently owned by likely president-elect Petro Poroshenko, for as much as $1.5 billion. The candy-maker-turned-politician earlier vowed to sell his biggest asset if elected president, and summoned investment advisors and bankers to assess a best price. Poroshenko’s […]

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Interfax: Russia to decide on whether to congratulate Poroshenko after official election results announced – Kremlin aide

Petro Poroshenko file photo, with additional men in background, adapted from image at state.gov

MOSCOW. May 28 (Interfax) – Russia will decide on whether or not to congratulate Petro Poroshenko on winning the presidency in elections in Ukraine only after the final results of the voting are officially announced, Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said. “When the final results are officially specified, then a decision will be made,” Ushakov said at a news conference in […]

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RIA Novosti: Poroshenko’s Lead in Ukraine Presidential Race Grows With 99% of Votes Counted

Petro Poroshenko file photo, with additional men in background, adapted from image at state.gov

KIEV, May 28 (RIA Novosti) – Tycoon Petro Poroshenko has scored 54.7 percent of the vote in Ukraine’s presidential election with 99.05 percent of ballots counted, the country’s Central Election Commission announced Wednesday. Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko came second with 12.82 percent. Oleh Lyashko, the leader of the Radical Party of Ukraine, came third with 8.33 percent of […]

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Interfax: Ukrainian border guards confirm withdrawal of Russian troops from border

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(Interfax – May 28, 2014) The Ukrainian State Border Service has observed a withdrawal of Russian troops from the bilateral border but is wary of the remaining infrastructure. “Our information suggests troops’ withdrawal from our border is under way, but with certain peculiarities. Intelligence radio units, radio interception units remain in place, so does the logistical infrastructure of the camps. […]

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Interfax: Maidan protestors demand all their requests complied with, only then will they free Kyiv center

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KYIV. May 28 (Interfax) – Maidan activists said they would not leave the Independence Square in central Kyiv until all their demands are met. According to the declaration of Maidan communities on the situation development after May 2014 released at a news conference in Kyiv on Wednesday, “Maidan will not disperse until the demands – punishing criminals, purging, changing the […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2014-#118 contents with links :: Tuesday 27 May 2014

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… 1. Youtube.com: FEEM Lecture by Anatol Lieven, King’s College London: “The Ukraine Debacle.”
2. Washington Post: Jackson Diehl, Ukraine’s Poroshenko says he wants direct U.S. military aid.
3. The Times (UK): Battle is on to stop foe at border with Russia. (Estonia) ….

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Putin is risking the engine of Russia’s economy

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – COMMENT: Lord Peter Mandelson of Global Counsel – May 27, 2014) Peter Mandelson was European Trade Commissioner between 2004 and 2008. He is now Chairman of Global Counsel Despite Russia’s recent underperformance, the size and potential of its economy has made it an attractive prospect for global companies. From German manufacturers to French and […]

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Russia ready to continue gas price talks with Ukraine if $2 billion debt is repaid by end of week – Russian Energy Minister

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(Interfax – May 27, 2014) Russia will be prepared to continue negotiations with Ukraine concerning gas prices if Ukraine pays off $2 billion worth of its debt before the end of the week, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said at a press conference after talks with his Ukrainian counterpart Yuriy Prodan and European Commissioner for Energy Gunther Oettinger. During the […]

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Ukraine needs federalism and power-sharing

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(opendemocracy.net – JOHN MCGARRY and NEOPHYTOS LOIZIDES – May 22, 2014) Neophytos Loizides is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Kent. His book Designing Peace Process: Institutional Innovations in Cyprus and Divided Societies is forthcoming with the University of Pennsylvania Press.  John McGarry is Professor in Political Studies and Canada Research Chair in Nationalism and Democracy at Queen’s University […]

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RIA Novosti: Opinion: Ukraine’s Presidential Election Led to One Oligarch Replacing Another

Ukraine Map and Flag

WASHINGTON, May 27 (RIA Novosti), Lyudmila Chernova – Last Sunday’s presidential election in Ukraine replaced one Ukrainian oligarch with another, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Paul Craig Roberts told RIA Novosti Tuesday. “The only difference between Poroshenko’s and Yanukovich’s governments is that Poroshenko might choose to ally with Washington and become richer by participating in the West’s looting of […]

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Interfax: Ukraine’s deposed president says he “respects” people’s choice in election

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(Interfax – May 26, 2014) Ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych has said he respects the choice that the Ukrainian people made in the presidential election on 25 May, privately-owned Russian news agency Interfax reported on 26 May. “An early presidential election has been held in Ukraine. Irrespective of what per cent of people in which region took part in the […]

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Press Digest: What the papers say on Ukrainian elections

Collage of Russian Newspapers

(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Darya Lyubinskaya, special to RBTH – May 26, 2014) RBTH brings together a selection of views from leading Russian media on Petro Poroshenko’s victory in the presidential vote in Ukraine, with comment on the fate of Yulia Tymoshenko, election turnout, the problems experienced by voters in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and the […]

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Poroshenko Signals Continuity Over Change

Petro Poroshenko file photo, with additional men in background, adapted from image at state.gov

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Ivan Nechepurenko – May 27, 2014) When demonstrators occupied central Kiev at the end of last year, they called for a radically changed Ukraine with reformed political institutions and the replacement of the old political guard with new faces that would lead the country to a prosperous future in Europe. But as Petro Poroshenko, 48, […]

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Interfax: Lavrov: Poroshenko will find reliable partner in Russia if he starts dialogue with eastern Ukraine

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MOSCOW. May 27 (Interfax) – If Petro Poroshenko succeeds in establishing dialogue with citizens of Ukraine, including with residents of the southeastern regions, he will find a serious and reliable partner in Russia, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. “We hope he will act in the interests of the Ukrainian people as a whole. If this is the case, he […]

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Interfax: Lavrov: Russian visit of Poroshenko is not on the table

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MOSCOW. May 27 (Interfax) – A Russian visit of Ukrainian President Elect Petro Poroshenko is not on the table, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. “A Russian trip of Poroshenko is not being considered or discussed by diplomatic or any other channels,” Lavrov told a press conference on Tuesday while answering an Interfax question. Interfax asked whether the situation in […]

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RIA Novosti: Kiev Issues Surrender-or-Die Ultimatum to Donetsk Federalists

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KIEV, May 27 (RIA Novosti) – Ukraine has issued a surrender-or-die ultimatum to self-defense forces in the restive city of Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, a spokesperson at the headquarters of the ongoing special operation told journalists Tuesday. “The command of the Anti-Terrorist Operation has guaranteed safety to those who are ready to lay down their weapons,” said Vladislav Seleznyov. He […]

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VIDEO: FEEM Lecture by Anatol Lieven, King’s College London: “The Ukraine Debacle”

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Anatol Lieven, Chair of International Relations in the War Studies Department of King’s College London, and senior fellow of the New America Foundation in Washington, D.C., addresses recent developments in the Ukrainian crisis, and a series of long-neglected problems impacting unfolding events.  The presentation took place in Milan, Italy, on May 14, 2014 under the auspices of the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.  

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Interview: Russia Watcher Lucas Says ‘Tide Has Turned A Bit’ For Ukraine

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(RFE/RL – rferl.org – May 25, 2014) There are still plenty of ways Russia can continue to meddle in Ukraine’s affairs. But with Petro Poroshenko’s apparent victory in the May 25 presidential election amid a solid turnout, Kyiv may have turned a corner. RFE/RL’s Brian Whitmore speaks to longtime Russia-watcher Edward Lucas, senior editor of the British weekly “The Economist.” RFE/RL: What is your […]

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Tom Thomson: The Speech I Hope Ukraine’s New President Gives at the Inauguration Ceremony

Petro Poroshenko file photo, with additional men in background, adapted from image at state.gov

Subject: The Speech I Hope Ukraine’s New President Gives at the Inauguration Ceremony Date: Sun, 25 May 2014 From: Tom Thomson <tom.thomson@tthomsonassociates.com> The Speech I Hope Ukraine’s New President Gives at the Inauguration Ceremony By Tom Thomson, Principal, T. Thomson & Associates, LLC. As I think about Sunday’s presidential election in strife torn Ukraine, I am reminded of US President […]

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RIA Novosti: Opinion: Third Maidan Unlikely As It Needs Western Support To Succeed

Ukraine Map and Flag

MOSCOW, May 26 (RIA Novosti, Daria Chernyshova) – The Third Maidan or another Orange Revolution is unlikely to happen in Ukraine, now that that the Western-backed candidate has won the presidency in Ukraine, President of the American University in Moscow Edward Lozansky told RIA Novosti. “The victory of “Chocolate King” in the first round was to be expected,” Lozansky said. […]

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RIA Novosti: Ukraine’s Presidential Vote ‘Step Forward’ – Russian Lawmaker

Russian Duma Building

MOSCOW, May 26 (RIA Novosti) – Russian State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin said Monday that Sunday’s presidential election in Ukraine was a step away from lawlessness and toward a lawful government in Kiev. “In general, the election is a step forward to return the legal environment to the state,” said Naryshkin, the speaker of Russia’s lower house of parliament. “This […]

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Interfax: Activist Brod points to Ukraine election rigging, dismisses OSCE support as inappropriate

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MOSCOW. May 26 (Interfax) – Alexander Brod, a member of the Human Rights Council, who also co-chairs of Civil Control, the association of nonprofit organizations protecting voting rights, has concluded on the basis on distance monitoring that the early presidential election in Ukraine was held with violations and the actual exclusion of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions from the voting […]

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RIA Novosti: Opinion: Future of Ukraine-Russia Dialogue Depends on Poroshenko’s Actions in East

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MOSCOW, May 26 (RIA Novost, Daria Chernyshova) – The future of dialogue between Moscow and Kiev depends on likely incoming Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s policy towards the country’s eastern regions, Nicolai Petro, a professor of international politics at the University of Rhode Island told RIA Novosti Monday. “Very much will depend on whether or not Petro Poroshenko can establish effective […]

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Interfax: Western sanctions haven’t yet affected Russian economy – Medvedev

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MOSCOW. May 26 (Interfax) – Russia has not yet felt the effect of the West’s sanctions, but if they are applied to whole sectors of the Russian economy, European businesses will be harmed equally, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said. “The effect of the sanctions on the Russian economy is absolutely minimal at the moment, if there is any at […]

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RIA Novosti: Maidan Barricades Must Be Dismantled – Ukraine’s Klitschko

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KIEV, May 26 (RIA Novosti) – Ex-boxing champion Vitali Klitschko, who claimed victory Sunday in Kiev’s mayoral vote, said that the Maidan protests have fulfilled their task and barricades in downtown Kiev must be dismantled. “I firmly confirm that the key task of the Maidan is fulfilled,” Klitschko told journalists Monday. “I am convinced that the barricades, to date, have […]

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RIA Novosti: Ukraine to Keep Non-Aligned Status, Revision Possible

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KIEV, May 26 (RIA Novosti) – Ukraine’s membership in NATO is off the table for now, but its future in the military alliance will depend on Russia’s plan of action, the Ukrainian acting foreign chief said Monday. “I can say for sure that Ukraine is not going to raise the question of its NATO membership any time soon. It runs […]

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RIA Novosti: Factbox: Ukraine’s Likely President Poroshenko Mulls Replacing 1994 Budapest Memorandum

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MOSCOW, May 26 (RIA Novosti) – Petro Poroshenko, who, with ballots still being tallied, is leading in Ukraine’s presidential race, has said that he intends to spearhead the creation of a new security framework that would replace the Budapest Memorandum. The Memorandum on Security Assurances was signed in Budapest on December 5, 1994 by Russia, Great Britain, the United States […]

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RIA Novosti: Ukraine’s Next President to Face Overwhelming Task of Comprehensive Reform

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MOSCOW, May 26 (RIA Novosti), Nastassia Astrasheuskaya – Ukraine’s May 25 election, regardless of its outcome, will require the country’s new president to tackle large-scale reforms to reverse the public discontent that triggered the February protests, Dr. Nadiya Kravets of the Ukrainian Research Institute at Harvard University told RIA Novosti Monday. “Ukraine is in the process of fundamentally restructuring and […]

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Moscow Unlikely to Ease Up on Ukraine After Vote, Experts Say

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Alexey Eremenko – May 26, 2014) As Ukrainians cast their votes for a new president on Sunday, analysts said the election was unlikely to fully stabilize the situation in the strife-ridden nation – partly because it would be in Moscow’s best interest to keep its smaller neighbor mired in conflict. “Instability in Ukraine is a […]

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