NEWSLINK Defenseone.com: “Obama Should Have Given Weapons to Ukraine, Says Former Pentagon Russia Official” [Evelyn Farkas]

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Interfax: DPR to launch combat actions if Ukraine breaches truce – Zakharchenko

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

DEBALTSEVE. (Donetsk region). Nov 4 (Interfax) – The self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) will launch combat actions at a place they will find necessary, if Ukraine breaches the truce, DPR leader Alexander Zakharchenko said. “The ceasefire is notional, yesterday I heard and saw how the silence regime is being implemented and watched the gunfire on Pesky and the frontline positions […]

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Nov. 4 Event on Capitol Hill: The Crisis in US-Russia Relations, from Ukraine to Syria

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

From: “Sperling, Erik” <Erik.Sperling@mail.house.gov> Subject: Nov. 4 event on Capitol Hill: The Crisis in US-Russia Relations, from Ukraine to Syria Date: October 28, 2015 The Crisis in US-Russia Relations, from Ukraine to Syria: Is Congress Overlooking its Causes and Potential Solutions? Hosted by Rep. John Conyers, Jr., Rep. Ted Yoho, Rep. Charles Rangel, Rep. Steve Cohen, Rep. Jim Himes, Rep. […]

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Kyiv Must Use Military Means to Recover Occupied Territories Now, Borovoy Says

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Paul Goble – Staunton, October 25, 2015) Now that Vladimir Putin is focused on Syria and clearly unlikely to stop there, the Ukrainian government should take advantage of the situation by moving militarily to reclaim Russian-occupied territories in the Donbas and Crimea, according to Konstantin Borovoy. “The attention of the Russian president has been distracted” for the moment by Syria, […]

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The Origins of Separatism: Popular Grievances in Donetsk and Luhansk

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(PONARS – ponarseurasia.org – Elise Giuliano – October 2015) Elise Giuliano is a Lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Columbia University and Academic Advisor of the MA Program in Russia, Eurasia and Eastern Europe at Columbia’s Harriman Institute. [Text with charts here http://www.ponarseurasia.org/memo/origins-separatism-popular-grievances-donetsk-and-luhansk] (PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) What were the origins of separatism in the Donbas? When the […]

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DPR, LPR obstructing verification of withdrawn armaments – OSCE mission

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

KYIV. Oct 29 (Interfax) – Representatives of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics are obstructing the access of OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) monitors to weapon storage sites, Deputy Chief Monitor Alexander Hug said. The OSCE SMM continues to monitor the withdrawal of artillery pieces with calibers under 100mm and mortars with calibers under 120mm and to […]

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Stephen Blank: “The Black Sea and Beyond”

Black Sea Satellite Photo file image

Subject: The Black Sea and Beyond Date: Wed, 28 Oct 201 From: Stephen Blank <traininblank@aol.com> David could you please place a notice of my new article The Black Sea and Beyond in the Proceedings of the US Naval Institute, http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2015-10/black-sea-and-beyond The naval and strategic consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cast a long shadow over Eastern Europe and the Middle […]

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Russian military intelligence officers captured in eastern Ukraine change story

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Human Rights in Ukraine – khpg.org – Halya Coynash – October 27, 2015) One of the two Russian spetsnaz officers captured in eastern Ukraine in May this year is now denying that he was a serving Russian officer, and the other, whose family has just hired a different lawyer, may be planning to do the same.   Any claim now that […]

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Brothers Armed: Military Aspects of the Crisis in Ukraine. Second edition.

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

From: director@cast.ru (Ruslan Pukhov) Date: 20.10.2015 Subject: Brothers Armed: Military Aspects of the Crisis in Ukraine. Second edition. Brothers Armed: Military Aspects of the Crisis in Ukraine offers an in-depth look at the state of the military in both Russia and Ukraine, as well as the history, political circumstances and events leading to the annexation of Crimea and outbreak of […]

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ASN 2016 World Convention Call for Papers (Deadline Reminder: 29 October)

Columbia University Campus with Main Building

Subject: To Post: ASN 2016 World Convention Call for Papers (Deadline Reminder: 29 October) Date: Tue, 20 Oct 2015 00:30:09 +0000 From: Dominique Arel <darel@uottawa.ca> To: davidjohnson@starpower.net <davidjohnson@starpower.net> Dear David: could you post this Deadline Reminder on JRL? Thanks, Dominique [A PDF of this announcement can be accessed at http://nationalities.org/uploads/documents/ASN16_Call_for_Papers.pdf] Call for Papers 21st Annual World Convention of the Association […]

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Kremlin chief of staff sees little progress in implementation of Minsk agreements on Ukraine

File Photo of Sergei Ivanov, adapted from defense.gov image

KRASNAYA POLYANA, Sochi. Oct 22 (Interfax) – Moscow is not inclined at the moment to make optimistic forecasts regarding the developments in settling the conflict in Ukraine, as the Minsk agreements have yet to be fulfilled, and Kyiv needs to arrange contacts with Donetsk and Luhansk representatives, Kremlin chief of staff Sergei Ivanov says. “I would be cautious about making […]

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NEWSWATCH Stratfor: “A Grand Bargain remains elusive in Ukraine”

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Stratfor covers the Russo-Ukrainian War and prospects for a political and diplomatic solution.  While arguing that there are some signs of lessening conflict, a broader settlement does not seem imminent. After a year of slow-burning conflict in eastern Ukraine, the relationship between Kiev and Moscow seems to finally be improving. Fighting on the ground has dissipated, there have been positive […]

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Extending implementation of Minsk peace deal for Ukraine depends only on its sides’ political agreements – source

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

MOSCOW. Oct 16 (Interfax) – A possible decision to extend the implementation of the Minsk peace agreements for Ukraine into 2016 will not require any specific judicial procedure, a Russian diplomatic source told Interfax. “The Package of Measures is not an international treaty. Rather, it is a political agreement. And prolonging [the implementation of] its provisions into next year is […]

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Infowar Continues as Russian, MH17 Investigations Reach Different Conclusions

Ukraine Air Crash Scene with Uniformed Security Personnel, Flames, Smoke

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Matthew Bodner, Eva Hartog – October 14, 2015) The Dutch Safety Board and Russians arms manufacturer Almaz-Antey on Tuesday told a similar story about what caused the downing of flight MH17 in eastern Ukraine last year, but had a politically charged crucial difference of opinion on what type of warhead was used – and consequently, […]

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Interfax: Ukraine rebels say they “did not have” Buk missile system at time of MH17 crash

Ukraine Air Crash Scene with Uniformed Security Personnel, Flames, Smoke

(Interfax – October 13, 2015) Eduard Basuryn (Basurin), the deputy defence minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, has once again said that the east Ukrainian insurgents did not have access to a Buk surface-to-air missile system at the time when Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 was shot down, privately-owned Russian news agency Interfax reported on 13 October. Earlier in the […]

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NEWSWATCH New York Times: “Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 Most Likely Hit by Russian-Made Missile, Inquiry Says”

Ukraine Air Crash Scene with Uniformed Security Personnel, Flames, Smoke

October 13, 2015 The New York Times covers the Dutch investigation of the shoot-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over an area of Ukraine controlled by Russia-backed rebels. A 15-month inquiry into the disintegration of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in the skies over eastern Ukraine has concluded that the aircraft was most likely attacked from the ground by a Russian-made […]

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TRANSCRIPT: Victoria Nuland Senate Testimony on Ukraine

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

(US Department of State – Testimony on Ukraine- Victoria Nuland, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs – October 8, 2015) Statement Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Washington, DC October 8, 2015 As prepared Thank you Chairman Corker, Ranking Member Cardin, members of this committee for the opportunity to join you today and for the personal investment so […]

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Interfax: Moscow hopes Minsk peace accords for Ukraine will be extended – source

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

MOSCOW. Oct 9 (Interfax) – Moscow believes that it would be advisable to extend the validity period of the Minsk peace agreements for Ukraine to 2016, a Russian diplomatic source told Interfax on Friday. “We hope that the ‘Minsk-2’ [accords] will be prolonged. This stems from the very course of the settlement [process], in particular the decision of the DPR […]

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Ukraine crisis: Is there a light at the end of the tunnel?

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

De-escalation measures have begun in eastern Ukraine as the sides start to withdraw light weaponry from the frontlines – a move expected to be accompanied by political steps in accordance with the Minsk peace agreements signed in February. But are the parties to the conflict ready for this? (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexey Timofeychev, RBTH – October […]

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RBTH: Further progress in Ukraine as Donbass agrees to postpone elections

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

The governments of the self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine have agreed to postpose their local elections, thus fulfilling the wishes expressed by the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France Normandy at talks in Paris on Oct. 2. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexey Timofeychev, RBTH – October 8, 2015) The unrecognized Donetsk and Lugansk “people’s republics” (DNR […]

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Non-Battle Casualties Make Up Third of Ukraine Military Deaths

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – October 8, 2015) Nearly a third of Ukraine’s military losses over the past two years were non-battle casualties, according to the country’s Defense Ministry figures cited by news reports. In total, 2,027 servicemen deaths have been recorded in 2014-2015 so far, according to the Defense Ministry report released Wednesday. Among them, 597 were non-battle casualties, […]

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Russian foreign ministry says postponement of DPR/LPR elections to make parties find common grounds, draw their positions closer

foreign-ministry-200

MOSCOW. Oct 8 (Interfax) – Russia’s foreign ministry hopes that the move to postpone the elections in the self-proclaimed republics in Donbas will create favorable conditions for further discussions on the matter of political settlement of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. “The crucial point was the statement of Donetsk and Luhansk on the shifting of the dates of the local […]

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Interfax: LPR promises to pull back artillery guns after OSCE confirms Ukrainian tanks withdrawal

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

MOSCOW. Oct 6 (Interfax) – The militia of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic will begin the pullback of artillery systems immediately after the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) confirms the end of the pullback of tanks by the Ukrainian military, the LPR people’s militsiya headquarters told Interfax on Tuesday. “It is needed to wait until the Ukrainian […]

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Interfax: OSCE SMM reports weapons pullback in Donbass in line with Minsk accords

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Interfax – October 5, 2015) The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Special Monitoring Mission (OSCE SMM) reports the process of pulling back weapons from the dividing line in Donbass in compliance with the Minsk agreements. In the districts controlled by the self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic (LNR) the monitors have noticed the withdrawal of 30 main combat tanks (T-64 […]

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Ukraine Is Being Told to Live With Putin

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – October 5, 2015) Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has long had trouble understanding that the Western support of his government is conditional. Now the leaders of France and Germany have told him that in no uncertain terms: The ceasefire agreement for eastern Ukraine has just been recast to put the onus on Poroshenko, rather […]

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RBTH: Parties satisfied with latest talks on ending Ukraine conflict

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Russian observers are voicing cautious optimism after another round of talks between the leaders of Russia, Germany, France, and Ukraine aimed at resolving the Ukrainian conflict. The issue of local elections in the Donbass remain the main stumbling block on the path to finding a political solution to the crisis in eastern Ukraine. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – […]

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Fragile calm holds in East Ukraine before four-way peace talks in Paris

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Graham Stack in Kyiv – October 2, 2015) Hopes for an end to 18 months of fighting in eastern Ukraine hinged on a meeting of the leaders of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia in Paris on October 2, with breakthrough prospects enhanced by a recent ceasefire and withdrawal of tanks and other weapons from […]

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NEWSWATCH Washington Post: Petro Poroshenko interview: ‘Ukraine is fighting….for global democracy and freedom’

Petro Poroshenko file photo, with additional men in background, adapted from image at state.gov

The Washington Post features an interview of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko conducted by Lally Weymouth, prior to Poroshenko’s recent address before the United Nations. [Poroshenko:] ‘… we have a very dangerous conflict in the center of Europe with the participation of thousands of Russian troops. We are doing our best to block Putin with political and financial support. We have […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE – Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2015-#187 :: Friday 25 September 2015

[check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2015-#188 Friday – 25 September 2515 A project sponsored through the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs The contents do not necessarily represent the views of IERES or the George Washington University. JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL […]

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Interfax: Up to 150,000 ethnic Russians may relocate from Ukraine to Russia in 2015 – migration service chief

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

MOSCOW. Sept 24 (Interfax) – Russia’s Federal Migration Service (FMS) expects the arrival of up to 150,000 ethnic Russians from Ukraine in 2015, and 2.6 billion rubles has been allocated from the federal budget for these purposes, FMS director Konstantin Romodanovsky has said. “Since September 2014, regional programs have been confirmed in the Rostov region and the Stavropol territory as […]

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Interfax: Kiev, unrecognized republics should discuss elections in east Ukraine – Kremlin

Dmitry Peskov file photo adapted from image at kremlin.ru/wikimedia commons

(Interfax – September 23, 2015) The implementation of the Minsk agreements with regard to local elections in Donbass, among other things, should be discussed via a direct dialogue between Kiev, Donetsk and Luhansk, presidential spokesman Dmitriy Peskov has said as reported by privately-owned Russian news agency Interfax on 23 September. This is how Peskov answered a question about whether Moscow […]

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The Interpreter Report Spurs Fervent Discussion in Washington, D.C. [re: Ukraine & Russia]

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Institute of Modern Russia – imrussia.org) On September 17, staff members of IMR’s The Interpreter project led an impassioned discussion about Western policy toward Russia and Ukraine at the presentation of their new report, “An Invasion by Any Other Name: The Kremlin’s Dirty War in Ukraine,” in Washington, D.C., on Thursday. [Report here http://www.imrussia.org/en/news/2414-imr-releases-the-interpreter-report-an-invasion-by-any-other-name-the-kremlins-dirty-war-in-ukraine] The Interpreter editor-in-chief Michael Weiss and […]

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TRANSCRIPT: Victoria Nuland at Panel Discussion “Ukraine’s East and Crimea: Solving the Unsolvable”

File Photo of Victoria Nuland Testifying

(Embassy of the United States Kyiv – September 12, 2015) Remarks by Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland at a Panel Discussion “Ukraine’s East and Crimea: Solving the Unsolvable” 12th Yalta European Strategy Annual Meeting Kyiv, Ukraine MODERATOR:  Victoria Nuland, if I may just turn to you. Obviously, you work for the State Department.  You […]

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Putin Tightens Reins on Ukraine Rebels, Putting Conflict on Ice

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Ilya Arkhipov, Stepan Kravchenko – September 17, 2015) Ukrainian separatist leaders say their hopes of full integration with Russia or greater independence are fading as the Kremlin tightens the reins on their rebellion. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears unwilling to risk broadening his conflict with the U.S. and European Union over Ukraine, senior separatist officials said […]

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UN: War in Donbass takes 8,000 lives

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Interfax – September 18, 2015) At least 8,000 people, mostly civilians, have been killed in the hostilities in eastern Ukraine, Christof Heyns, UN Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary execution, has said. Eight thousand people have died, and according to the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission, most of them have been civilians. Artillery shelling incidents are observed on both sides, […]

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The dark side of Ukraine’s constitutional reform; ‘Bloody Monday’ raised the stakes for Ukraine’s constitutional reform. The new law not only affects the state’s relationship with the east, but threatens austerity measures and infringements on human rights

Verkhovna Rada File Photo

(opendemocracy.net – Vitaly Dudin – September 16, 2015) Vitaly Dudin is a legal analyst at Ukraine’s Center for Social and Labor Research, which was created in 2013 as an independent not-for-profit institution dedicated to the analysis of socio-economic problems, collective protests, labour relations and conflicts. 265 votes ‘for’. Three people dead. This is how most of us will remember Ukraine’s […]

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U.S. Envoy Tells Russia’s Neighbors: Having Putin As Your Only Friend Not A Good Idea

Europe Map

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Pete Baumgartner – PRAGUE, September 15, 2015) The U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) says there is a very important lesson for former Soviet republics to have learned from the devastating conflict in eastern Ukraine: Don’t be too reliant on Russia. “Having [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin as your only friend […]

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The Logic and Risks Behind Russia’s Statelet Sponsorship

(Stratfor.com – Reva Bhalla – September 15, 2015) Mother Russia can be quite generous when it comes to her collection of statelets. In the early 1990s, when a broken Russia had no choice but to suck in her borders, a severely distracted Kremlin still found the time and money to promote and sponsor the fledgling breakaway territories of South Ossetia […]

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Communication breakdown in Ukraine’s east; A recent survey conducted by Telekritika, a Ukrainian media watchdog, reveals just how hard it is for Kyiv to communicate with the ‘People’s Republics.’

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(opendemocracy.net – Marina Denysenko – September 11, 2015) Marina Denysenko is a journalist with experience reporting in Ukraine and the UK. In 2004, she reported Ukraine’s Orange Revolution for the BBC World Service. In 2014, she directed London’s Ukrainian Investment Summit, and is currently researching Ukraine’s institutional response to the challenges of the information war for the Legatum Institute. ‘The […]

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Putin Changing Tactics in Ukraine But Not Strategy, Shevtsova Says

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, September 14, 2015) The current lull in the fighting in the Donbas is “one of the tactical elements in the Kremlin’s efforts to get out of open confrontation with the West and offer the West a new deal – the idea of a global anti-terrorist coalition,” Liliya Shevtsova says; but it does […]

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Past 24 hours sees no casualties, shoots for first time ever – Poroshenko

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

KYIV. Sept 11 (Interfax) – The past 24 hours were the first day in the past 18 months that saw no casualties and heard no shooting in eastern Ukraine, the country’s President Petro Poroshenko said. “I want to say that today is the first day in the past 18 months on which there were no casualties and no shooting during […]

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