(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Carl Schreck – November 05, 2014) Ukraine has pledged to recapture them. Separatists vow to expand them. But even as hostilities rage on despite a shaky cease-fire, the areas in eastern Ukraine controlled by Russia-backed rebels appear to be drifting inexorably toward the “F” word, analysts say. “For the foreseeable future — let’s say at least […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Pavel Koshkin, RBTH – November 4, 2014) Can Moscow and Washington reset the educational and cultural collaboration to minimize negative implications of their confrontation? As an innocent bystander to the diplomatic differences between the U.S. and Russia, educational exchanges are facing major cutbacks or have been canceled as pawns in the growing game […]
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(Institute of Modern Russia – imrussia.org – Olga Khvostunova- October 28, 2014) On the last day of the annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club, Vladimir Putin delivered a speech in which he accused the United States of attempting to establish a global dictatorship. Olga Khvostunova, editor-in-chief of imrussia.org, speculates that the Russian president might have been subconsciously speaking […]
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November 5 (RIA Novosti) – The civil war rages in eastern Ukraine despite reconciliation agreements reached this fall with the participation of Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the Russian president said Wednesday. “A civil conflict, which in fact is a civil war, rages in Ukraine, near Russian borders. Despite Minsk agreements, peaceful cities are being […]
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(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, November 5, 2014) Ever more commentators are suggesting that a new round of Russian military aggression in Ukraine is likely in order to secure a Russian-controlled land corridor to Crimea, an action that some analysts say would cost Russia more killed and wounded than it has suffered in any conflict since World […]
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… 8. Kyiv Post: Russia, West diverge sharply on ‘elections’ in Ukraine’s east.
9. RFE/RL: Five Takeaways From Eastern Ukraine’s Separatist Vote.
10. The National Interest: Katrina V. Negrouk, The Aftermath of Ukraine’s Elections: One Step Forward or Two Steps Back? ….
(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, November 4, 2014) One of the most frequently invoked explanations for the inability of leaders to cope with a challenge is that it is something fundamentally new that they could not have been expected to recognize, understand, and know precisely how to respond. That has been the case in Ukraine and the […]
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(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Mark Galeotti – November 3, 2014) Mark Galeotti is professor of global affairs at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University, an expert on Russia’s security services, and author of the blog “In Moscow’s Shadows” Mikhail Volkov is a cop in Moscow (up to a point) and Viktor Skvortsov is a criminal (of sorts), […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Yevgeny Levkovich, special to RBTH – November 3, 2014) Yevgeny Levkovich is a journalist and civil activist. There is more potential than usual for scandal in the Russian March held annually on Nov. 4 as nationalists have split over the situation in Ukraine. The Russian March will take place as usual in Moscow […]
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(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Glenn Kates – November 3, 2014) The elections held in eastern Ukraine by the pro-Russian separatists may not have been recognized by anyone but Russia, but that may be all that matters. Here are some more takeaways from the November 2 vote. Western nonrecognition is a moot point for separatists The November 2 elections in Ukraine’s […]
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BRUSSELS, November 4 (RIA Novosti) – The geopolitical tensions over the situation around Ukraine, declining oil prices combined with Russia’s high dependence on energy exports, a weakening ruble and high inflation are among the main risks for the Russian economy, said the European Commission’s (EC) forecast, published Tuesday. “Economic growth in Russia had been on a declining trend for some […]
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… 12. AP: Russia’s Top Radio Station Slapped by Government.
13. Reuters: Russia keeps oil output near high despite sanctions, low prices.
14. Wall Street Journal editorial: The Run on the Ruble. Sanctions and a strong dollar create currency woes for Putin. …
(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, November 2, 2014) Lev Gudkov, the director of the Levada Center, says that the ongoing Ukrainian crisis is dividing Russian society to an extent comparable to the ways in which the demise of the Soviet Union and the war in Chechnya and that as such this crisis represents “a turning point” in […]
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(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, November 3, 2014) Vladimir Putin has a very clear strategy in Ukraine: first, sow panic among Ukrainians and the West and then wait, then provoke Ukrainians into doing things that distance them from the West, and then wait; invade when both Ukrainians and the West are off balance; and then repeat the […]
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MOSCOW. Nov 3 (Interfax) – Russia is prepared to do everything it can to help launch dialogue between Kyiv and representatives of Ukraine’s southeastern regions. “Today it is important to take active measures in order to ensure a sustainable dialogue between Kyiv and representatives of Donbas. And we are help in every possible way,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – November 1, 2014) Concerns are rising among U.S. businesses in Russia that Washington lawmakers could move to enshrine sanctions on Russia in new legislation, extending their impact and delaying their repeal. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee unanimously passed such a legislative proposal last month and analysts warn the measure is more likely […]
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(Voice of America – voanews.com – Daniel Schearf – November 1, 2014) Russia’s economy was struggling even before it was hit with western sanctions for annexing Crimea from Ukraine. Despite the downward trend, President Vladimir Putin’s popularity has reached an all-time high on a wave of nationalistic fervor. But analysts say the high numbers are set to drop. The value […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Richard Winterbottom, special to RBTH – November 3, 2014) Keeping a weather eye open: With winter slowly creeping in, our newly repatriated expat recalls how Russians react to the weather. Last week my Facebook and Vkontakte walls have been plastered with pictures of perviy sneg (first snow of the year) in several of […]
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KIEV, November 2 (RIA Novosti) – Kiev has claimed to observe movement of military equipment and troops from Russia to the Donbas region, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council’s spokesperson Andriy Lysenko said in a statement Sunday, but failed to provide evidence. “The intensive movement of military equipment and troops from the territory of the Russian Federation to the territory […]
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… 22. RFE/RL: Can Lviv Mayor Change Ukrainian Politics Once And For All?
23. The American Interest: Steven Pifer, RUSSIA AND THE WEST. Taking Stock in Ukraine. Seven things to know about the crisis, Moscow’s and Kyiv’s actions, and the West’s response. …
… 37. The Economist: Russia and the West. Hard talk. What lies behind Vladimir Putin’s latest anti-American rant.
38. Institute of Modern Russia: Donald Jensen, A Cold Peace?
39. New York Times: Serge Schmemann, Blaming the West for Things Gone Wrong, Mr. Putin Sings an Old Tune.
40. Christian Science Monitor: Fred Weir, Russia’s flights over Europe: How much bark, how much bite? NATO says it has seen an ‘unusual level of air activity over European airspace,’ involving 19 Russian bombers and fighters on Wednesday alone. But the flights are more message than menace, experts say.
41. New York Times: New Russian Boldness Revives a Cold War Tradition: Testing the Other Side. …
(opendemocracy.net – Sergei Markedonov – October 30, 2014) Sergei Markedonov heads the Department of International Relations at the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, Moscow. He is now is a visiting fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC, USA Will the new treaty being discussed between Abkhazia and Russia provide a blueprint for cooperation or […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Mikhail Shchelkanov, special to RBTH – October 28, 2014) Mikhail Shchelkanov is the head of the laboratory of Virus Ecology at the Ivanovsky Institute of Virology of the Russian Minstry of Health. This summer, he helped fight Ebola in Guinea. What is the likelihood that these factors could come into play in Europe […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Delphine d’Amora – October 30,, 2014) Despite concerns of a consumer lending bubble in Russia, relatively few Russians have any debt at all compared with residents of the U.S. and Europe, according to a survey released Wednesday. Russia’s consumer lending market grew at the blistering rate of 40 percent in 2012 and again in 2013, […]
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(RIA Novosti – Moscow, October 30, 2014) Experts polled by RIA Novosti have linked President Vladimir Putin’s consistently high approval ratings, as documented by the Public Opinion Foundation [FOM], to socioeconomic instability, external pressure and the president’s powerful speech at the Valdai [Valday] forum [on 24 October]. According to the results of a FOM survey conducted on 25-26 October, among […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – October 31, 2014) Russia, Ukraine and the EU have signed a trilateral gas agreement securing the resumption of Russian gas supplies to Ukraine from November. The deal followed a total of 30 hours in talks continuing into the night of October 30, when the sides announced an agreement. Russian Energy Minister Aleksandr Novak, EU Energy Commissioner […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – October 31, 2014) The newly appointed governor of Lugansk, former interior minister Hennady Moskal, has said in an interview that 80-95% of the region is pro-Russian. With over half of the region including the eponymous capital held by Russian-backed rebels, Moskal is now administrating the region from the town of Severodonetsk. Moskal, a highly […]
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(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, October 30, 2014) Members of Russian elites see Vladimir Putin as the only person who can maintain the existing system in which they are beneficiaries and protect them from having to go head to head with the Russian people as a whole, Aleksandr Skobov says. Consequently, they will stick with him even […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Sam Skove – October 30, 2014) Despite dire forecasts for its sanctions-struck economy, Russia has leaped up an unprecedented 30 positions in the World Bank’s annual “Doing Business” survey for 2015, the bank said Wednesday. Russia rose to 62nd place out of 189 ranked countries, ahead of China at 90, Brazil at 120 and India […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Allison Quinn – October 30, 2014) When President Vladimir Putin made a law on health care reform one of his first acts after returning to the presidency in May 2012, medical professionals and members of the public alike nodded their heads in approval, all too aware of the flaws and chaos inherent in the existing […]
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[check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List JRL 2014-#225 :: Thursday 30 October 2014 E-Mail: davidjohnson@starpower.net A project of the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs: www.ieres.org JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL on Facebook: facebook.com/russialist JRL on Twitter: twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi Support JRL: russialist.org/funding.php Ukraine 1. Moscow Times: Fire Sweeps Through Kiev’s Oldest Movie Theater During […]
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(Interfax – October 29, 2014) Russian TV is not a zombie box as it speaks of President Vladimir Putin not only in glowing terms but also carries criticisms of him, the head of the Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VTsIOM), Valeriy Fedorov, has said. He was speaking at a news conference in Moscow on 29 October, as reported by privately-owned […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Allison Quinn – October 30, 2014) The overwhelming majority of Russians view negative foreign media coverage of President Vladimir Putin and of Russia in general as an attempt to destabilize the country, pollster VTsIOM revealed Wednesday. The poll revealed that 87 percent of respondents see such ulterior motives in critical remarks released by foreign media […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – October 30, 2014) The early onset of winter experienced this year by residents in Siberia and the Ural Mountains could mark the start of a 35-year cycle of colder weather, a leading Russian scientist said Wednesday. “Changes in climate are cyclical. From 1946 to 1976, there was a cold cycle, which was then replaced by […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – October 30, 2014) Russia’s Gazprom said on October 29 that it will seek to open talks with the new European Commission on expanding its access to the Opal pipeline, which carries gas from Germany to the heart of Central Europe. The move serves as a reminder to member states that, if it wants, the […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anna Dolgov – October 30, 2014) A fire has swept through the oldest movie theater in Ukraine’s capital Kiev during the showing of an LGBT movie, ravaging the building in what witnesses described as a likely arson attack. None of the 100 or so people who attended the screening Wednesday night appeared to have been […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Daryna Krasnolutska – October 30, 2014) Ukraine’s economy shrank 5.1 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the most in almost five years, as industrial production and the hryvnia slumped amid the bloody conflict in the country’s east. The drop is less than the 9 percent median estimate of six economists in a Bloomberg […]
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NOVOAZOVSK (Ukraine), October 30 (RIA Novosti) – The self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk (DPR) will stipulate its own conditions on if it were to sign a demarcation line agreement with Kiev, DPR Prime Minister Alexander Zakharchenko said Thursday. “There will be new conditions [on the signing of the demarcation line agreement], ours. We consider the entire Donetsk region DPR territory,” […]
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(Interfax – October 29, 2014) Work on agreeing a new dividing line between militia forces and the Ukrainian army has been suspended on Kiev’s initiative, and now “we are preparing for war”, Oleksandr (Aleksandr) Zakharchenko, prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk people’s republic (DPR) has said, as reported by privately-owned Russian news agency Interfax on 29 October. “Ukraine has announced […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – October 30, 2014) 38% of Russian citizens interviewed by the Levada Center in September said they were ready to vote for incumbent President Vladimir Putin if the presidential elections were to be held this coming Sunday, as compared with 66% at the beginning of the year, center sociologists told Interfax. 7% of respondents said […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Allison Quinn – October 30, 2014) Nearly half of all Russians believe that a return to Soviet-era repression is possible within their lifetime, a poll by the state-run Public Opinion Foundation revealed Wednesday. The poll, titled “Mass Repression in the Soviet Union,” examined the public’s perceptions and interpretations of Soviet-era repression. Millions were persecuted for […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Matthew Bodner – October 30, 2014) [themoscowtimes.com/business/article/how-a-1960s-soviet-engine-appeared-on-an-exploded-u-s-rocket/510311.html] A U.S. commercial rocket powered by a Soviet-built Russian rocket engine exploded seconds after liftoff early Wednesday morning Moscow time, adding fire to debates concerning the U.S. space industry’s heavy use of Russian rocket engines. While unfortunate, the incident does not threaten the International Space Station (ISS), which […]
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… 10. Business New Europe: Ben Aris, Ukraine to introduce sweeping tax reforms.
11. Bloomberg: Safe-Deposit Box Craze Lays Bare Ukraine Woes After Vote.
12. Reuters: Ukraine’s Yatseniuk sees himself staying on as prime minister.
13. www.opendemocracy.net: Natalia Antonova, Post-election, Ukrainians and Russians face an uncertain future. …
(opendemocracy.net – Vasil Jaiani – October 27, 2014) Vasil Jaiani is a senior management analyst for the government of the District of Columbia. Sanctions have had a limited effect on the Russian population whose support towards the government’s Ukrainian policy does not seem to be eroding. [Charts here opendemocracy.net/od-russia/vasil-jaiani/russians-are-not-bothered-by-western-sanctions] Russia’s economy is not in meltdown, but it has been suffering […]
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MOSCOW, October 29 (RIA Novosti) – The anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the European Union will not be scaled back or rescinded in the immediate future. They’re likely to be in effect until mid-March of next year, an EU diplomatic source told RIA Novosti. But as Nigel Kushner, the CEO of W Legal, an international law firm that specializes in sanctions, […]
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MOSCOW, October 28 (RIA Novosti) – With oil hovering around the $80-85 per barrel mark, down nearly 30 percent from a high of over $115 in mid-June, media and expert analysis about the causes and consequences of the price decline has been extensive. We present another, Russia-informed perspective. Saudi Machinations Against US Shale and the Drive for Market Share Among […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Alexander Panin – October 29, 2014) Three screws are tightening on Russia’s oil industry. International banks are calling in multibillion-dollar loans and refusing new ones due to sanctions on Moscow over Ukraine. Western oil companies are barred from handing over advanced drilling technology, also due to sanctions. And, unexpectedly, the oil price has slumped from […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – October 29, 2014) Russia’s ambassador to the EU Vladimir Chizhov called on the EU to show Russia it has the money to pay for Ukrainian gas, before Russia renews gas supplies to Ukraine, which were cut after a dispute over pricing and arrears. The EU is set to disburse nearly $1bn by the end […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Vladimir Kuznetsov – October 29, 2014) The ruble’s persistent weakening in the face of $24 billion of interventions is stoking speculation the Bank of Russia will accelerate its switch to a free float. The currency fell to a record for a sixth day today, losing 0.6 percent to 42.7410 per dollar and bringing this month’s drop […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – October 29, 2014) Opposition activist Alexei Navalny announced his victory Tuesday in a lawsuit challenging the Russian federal media watchdog’s refusal to register his news outlet as an official media outlet. Navalny filed an application with the agency on June 2 to set up the “Alexei Navalny Information Agency,” a news outlet that would focus […]
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