Obama Administration Increasingly Divided Over Arms to Ukraine

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Patrick Donahue, David J Lynch – March 5, 2015)

As the U.S. State Department’s No. 2 official warned against a military response to the Ukraine crisis, President Barack Obama is facing growing pressure from other top advisers to start arming Ukrainian government forces battling Russian-backed insurgents.

“Anything we did as countries in terms of military support for Ukraine is likely to be matched and then doubled and tripled and quadrupled by Russia,” Antony Blinken, deputy secretary of state, said Thursday in Berlin. “You may well get into an escalatory cycle that is hard to control and hard to predict.”

Blinken’s comments followed indications of a widening administration split over Ukraine. In recent days, the secretary of defense, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the director of national intelligence have publicly broken with the president’s refusal to send arms to Ukraine.

“I think we should absolutely consider providing lethal aid,” Army General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, told the Senate Armed Services Committee. He added that any such move should be taken in concert with European allies.

Two days earlier, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, describing his personal view, told an audience in New York that the U.S. should arm the Ukrainians “to bolster their resolve and bolster their morale that, you know, we are with them.”

Defense Secretary Ash Carter also endorsed the idea at his Feb. 6 confirmation hearing, saying: “We need to support the Ukrainians in defending themselves.”

In Congress, House Speaker John Boehner, an Ohio Republican, and 10 other House members, including three Democrats, wrote the president Thursday calling for action.

Congressional Pressure

“We urge you to quickly approve additional efforts to support Ukraine’s efforts to defend its sovereign territory, including through the transfer of lethal, defensive weapons systems to the Ukrainian military,” the lawmakers said in the letter.

For the past year, Ukrainian government forces have been battling pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine with support from the Russian military. The conflict on Europe’s eastern frontier has claimed more than 6,000 lives, according to the United Nations.

Despite the public pressure from some U.S. military and intelligence officials, Obama has shown no sign of abandoning his reluctance to get involved in a military showdown with Russia. U.S. lethal aid could easily be matched or exceeded by Russian President Vladimir Putin, administration officials say.

“If you’re playing on a military terrain in Ukraine, you’re playing to Russia’s strengths, because Russia’s right next door,” Blinken said, reflecting the White House view. “It has a huge amount of military equipment and military force right on the border.”

Geographic Advantage

His remarks echoed the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Lieutenant General Vincent Stewart, who told Congress Feb. 27 that the Russians could capitalize on their proximity to Ukraine to deliver heavier weapons faster than the U.S. could.

The U.S. to date has confined its aid to the government in Kiev to $118 million in “non-lethal military equipment,” including radar, medical supplies and communications gear, along with a $1 billion loan guarantee.

Those provisions are dwarfed by the Ukrainian forces’ needs in the face of attacks by Ukrainian rebels supported by Russian military personnel and equipment.

The conflict over Ukraine has plunged the U.S. and Russia into a Cold War sequel, while battering the Russian economy. Sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its European allies have contributed to a 41 percent plunge in the value of the Russian currency. Russia’s economy is expected to shrink by 4 percent this year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Raising the Cost

Arms shipments to Ukraine could make the conflict there even costlier for Russia and undermine public support for Putin, advocates argue.

“The cost of more body bags coming home to Russia is a concern to him,” says Andrew Kuchins of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “They’ve been doing everything possible to hide their involvement in the insurgency.”

A truce negotiated last month by Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France is taking hold as parties to the conflict moved forward with a withdrawal of heavy weaponry. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier referred in Berlin to a “significant reduction of violence,” though he said the cease-fire remains “fragile.”

‘Only Sustainable Answer’

Blinken, speaking at Berlin’s Hertie School of Governance, said diplomacy is the “only sustainable answer” to the crisis in Ukraine and that a military response risks provoking Russia and triggering spiraling violence.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest said Wednesday in Washington that the president still had not reached a decision on proposals to arm the Ukrainians and was mindful of the danger that such shipments would simply increase the death toll.

“The whole reason that we’re trying to reach this negotiated solution is to prevent bloodshed, not contribute more of it,” he told reporters.

As the crisis that began with November 2013 protests in Kiev continues, U.S. officials are braced for Russia’s next move. Clapper testified on Capitol Hill that Russia may seek a land bridge to the Crimean region it annexed last year, as well as perhaps trying to seize the port of Mariupol this spring.

Blinken said success hinges on implementing the Feb. 12 agreement negotiated in the Belarus capital Minsk, including a full withdrawal of foreign forces and equipment and a restoration of Ukraine’s border with Russia.

Mark Stroh, a spokesman for the National Security Council, declined to comment Thursday in the wake of Blinken’s speech.

“We’ve repeatedly tried to give President Putin what we call on off-ramp,” Blinken said. “Unfortunately, each time we’ve worked to give him an off-ramp, he’s pressed the accelerator and gone right passed it.”

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