NEWSWATCH Georgetown Journal of International Affairs: Inequality: The Ukraine Invasion and Public Opinion
[“The Ukraine Invasion and Public Opinion” – Georgetown Journal of International Affairs – Harley Balzer – March 20, 2015]
Writing in the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Professor Harley Balzer examines various aspects of Russian involvement in the Ukraine conflict, such as Ukrainian and Russian public opinion, foreign policy considerations and the relevance of Russian public opinion to Russian policymaking.
Encouraging Russians who oppose the military conflict with brother Slavs is not only plausible but is also possible. They do not need a regime change but merely need to convince their leader that the current policy is unpopular as well as irrational for Russia’s future. Opinion data indicate that an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians, including Russian speakers, favor independence, an overwhelming majority of Russians oppose military intervention in Ukraine, and Putin’s approval rating has far outpaced his electoral rating as a result of his Ukraine policies. Both ratings have fallen since June. These data offer hope that the policies could be changed. Growing conflicts within Putin’s elite as economic sanctions create competition and tensions could accelerate the process.
Russian public opinion might actually have more impact than might be expected, even by the Russians themselves.
Levada Center surveys indicate that 85 percent of Russian citizens believe they have no influence on policy decisions.[ ] The regime’s extensive efforts to contain protest, control the media, and thwart civic activism suggest that Russia’s rulers do not share this view: Putin and his cronies remain seriously concerned about public opinion. Doing more to open the information space will help.
Putin expansionism poses risks to major interests shared by Russia and the West.
Putin’s creeping annexation of former Soviet territory should not be allowed to escalate into a broader armed conflict, but fear of conflict should not deter the United States and Europe from doing everything possible to stop Putin’s aggression. Numerous analysts have noted the broad range of issues on which U.S. and Russian cooperation is essential: terrorism, Iran’s nuclear program, North Korea, Afghanistan, piracy, and others.[ ]
If Putin extends the conflict to more of Ukraine or to the Baltics, cooperation on these areas of mutual interest could become impossible. …
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