JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Black Box of Moscow; The West Struggles to Understand Russia — but Can Still Help Ukraine Win” – Foreign Affairs/ Sam Greene
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“… Westerners’ inability to travel to Russia and conduct new research means that they are unlikely to arrive at a better understanding of the cost-benefit analysis guiding Kremlin decision-making. … Western countries’ attempts to achieve their policy aims by modulating — or even responding to — events in Russia and the decisions of the Russian leadership are doomed to be ineffective at best. … Western analysts and policymakers have accumulated tremendous amounts of robust data on the impacts of adding new weapons systems to the battlefield and defending Ukrainian airspace. They have solid evidence that policies to support Ukraine’s economy and weaken Russia’s financial capacity to prosecute war are effective, and they know what adjustments could make them even more effective. Alas, those same analysts — this author included — remain flummoxed by events within Russia itself. Over time, this problem will be addressed, and the gap between awareness and analysis will narrow. Until it does, however, Western policy should focus on the things Westerners understand rather than the things they do not.”