JRL NEWSWATCH: “How Russia Decides to Go Nuclear; Deciphering the Way Moscow Handles Its Ultimate Weapon” – Foreign Affairs/ Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

“… The most perilous moment will be when Ukraine is on the cusp of victory, and Putin feels he can salvage his invasion only through an unprecedented escalation. … [A]nother perilous moment will come if Russian military or political leaders decide … direct military confrontation with NATO is inevitable. … Western policymakers should actively seek to mitigate [that scenario if it arises] … using calibrated deterring communication and military maneuvers that cannot be misinterpreted as preparations for [attack] …. A nuclear attack is unlikely to help Russia win its war of aggression in Ukraine. Moscow’s theory … that it [would] force a terrified Ukraine and … shaken West to sue for peace instead of continuing to fight [] is unlikely to be [accurate]. … Ukrainians appear committed … at any cost … ]M]ore horror will only harden their resolve. Western policymakers will not let Putin get away with using nuclear weapons to succeed in conquest … a terrible precedent. … [I]t [would] lead them to redouble … efforts to make Russia pay a price for its aggression. … Russian nuclear use in Ukraine or beyond would cause horrible devastation. … [and] produce extremely difficult choices for the United States [and NATO] about a range of issues, including … [optimal] political and military denunciation and punishment … to de-escalate from what would be the most dangerous moment in modern history. …”

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