JRL NEWSWATCH: “Don’t Let Ukraine Join NATO; The Costs of Expanding the Alliance Outweigh the Benefits” – Foreign Affairs/ Justin Logan, Joshua Shifrinson
“… At a time when Washington already faces serious resource demands both at home and in Asia, it risks being backed into a corner: with Ukraine in NATO, Washington will need to divert resources from other priorities, … or accept increased risk along … a dramatically expanded eastern front. … [C]osts could balloon because of the perverse incentives that offering Ukraine a path into NATO creates for Moscow. … [O]ffering Ukraine a path into NATO is … likely to give Russia reason to continue its war against Ukraine for as long as possible … to avoid creating conditions in which Ukraine can start on the road to NATO membership. … [A]n invitation to join the alliance promises to prolong the current bloodshed and make any diplomatic settlement less likely. … [I]f the current war were to abate and Ukraine began the accession process, Moscow would be encouraged to lash out again in a bid to prevent that move before the process was complete. Unless NATO could admit Ukraine via some kind of fait accompli … a plan for long-term membership makes Russian aggression in Ukraine more rather than less likely. In either case, the costs of defending Ukraine go up. …”