NEWSLINK: A revolution in space but calmer streets at home; Pundits predict a loss of momentum for the protest movement at home and see little scope for improvement in relations with the West
(A revolution in space but calmer streets at home; Pundits predict a loss of momentum for the protest movement at home and see little scope for improvement in relations with the West – Russia Beyond the Headlines – Artem Zagorodnov – January 4, 2013 – click here for google cache version of article)
Russia Beyond the Headlines takes a look at predictions for 2013:
A cool relationship between Russia and Britain and the US will continue, according to one of the specialists …
Political scientist Evgeny Minchenko said: “New information about the Litvinenko case has significantly altered how Britain views the situation.” Meanwhile, the authorities’ “feeling of vulnerability” over Russian business people choosing British courts to resolve conflicts will lead to preventive steps.
Relations with the US would be better than if Mitt Romney had been elected President and some improvement under a new Secretary of State could be expected. But Mr Minchenko felt most potential for an improvement in ties had been exhausted. “Start has already been signed, and the Americans won’t abandon the idea of a missile defence system in Europe …”
“… Assad will very likely no longer be in power by the end of the year. Interestingly, Russia doesn’t stand to lose as much geopolitically as one would expect in the light of the overall growing chaos and influence of radical Islam in the region.” Mr Minchenko also predicted that the U.S. would try to cultivate Iran as an ally against Sunni influence in the region.
Yuri Korgunyuk of the Moscow-based Indem think-tank said: “From the point of view of the protest movement, 2013 will be quiet. … But if the government clamps down too hard it may lead to a backlash.” Konstantin Simonov, president of the Centre for Political Conjecture, agrees: “We’re expecting a second wave of the global economic crisis, but Russia has a monetary pillow …
But when we look ahead at 2014 and beyond we begin to see a deteriorating economic situation that could lead to social problems.”