Nigel Gould-Davies: “BOFIT Policy Brief: Assessing Western Sanctions”

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Subject: BOFIT Policy Brief: Assessing Western sanctions
Date: Tue, 14 Aug 2018
From: Nigel Gould-Davies <nigelgd.office@gmail.com

In case of interest to JRL, my policy brief for the Bank of Finland’s Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) on “Economic effects and political impacts: Assessing Western sanctions on Russia”, just published:

helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/handle/123456789/15832/bpb0818.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Abstract:

This brief assesses the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russia, and their likely future impact. It examines the unique features of Russia as a sanctions target in the context of global sanctions experience. It then considers the goals that sanctions are intended to achieve, their impact so far, and the second-order effects of Russia’s responses. It concludes that, although the factors that typically correlate with sanctions success are absent, sanctions on Russia have nonetheless achieved important goals relatively quickly. Their impact will increase over time. Though speculative at this stage, recent oligarch sanctions and more stringent scrutiny may have significant consequences. They pose new and difficult choices for Russia’s business elite, much of which is dependent on the global economy. How oligarchs resolve these dilemmas has important implications for Russia’s domestic evolution.