Business New Europe: More Donbas residents want to remain in the Ukrainian state than separate

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Concorde Capital – October 8, 2014) More than 49% of the residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (collectively known as Donbas) want to remain in the Ukrainian state, compared to 42% who are opposed, according to a poll released on Oct. 7 that was conducted by the Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Fund and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Of the total results, 7% of the region’s residents are satisfied with the current governing structure, 42% want to remain in Ukraine but with more local autonomy, 26% want independence for the region and 16% want to merge with Russia. Meanwhile, 45.5% of Ukrainians believe Donbas should remain in the Ukrainian state under the current structure, 32.5% believe it should gain more local autonomy, 7% support its independence and 5% are ready to allow Russia to annex the region. The poll was conducted among 2,035 respondents between Sept. 12 and 21 in 110 localities of Ukraine.

Regarding the Ukrainian state as a whole, 25% of those polled support a unitary state and the current governing structure, 47% support a unitary state with greater local autonomy, 11% support federalization and 16.5% were unable to decide. Only 19.5% of those polled believe the Russian government is justly defending the interests of Russian-speaking citizens in eastern Ukraine. Nearly 66% of Ukrainians don’t believe the Russian government is acting justly. On whether compromises were needed with the Russian government and separatist leaders, 28% said that any compromise is worth pursuing for peace, 24% said no serious compromise is worth it, 23% said some serious compromises are worth it, and 16% said that no compromises are worth it, even if it means war. As for which compromises, the most popular ones were enhancing local autonomy (38%), removing Ukrainian soldiers from Donbas (24%) and granting the Russian language official status in Ukraine (22%).

Zenon Zawada: The poll figures confirm that the Russian government’s depiction of its conflict with Ukraine that it’s presenting to the world is an utter distortion. Most Ukrainians have no interest in separation, let alone federalization, two proposals that are being demanded of Ukraine by the Russian government. Therefore, if the poll figures accurately reflect the situation in Ukrainian society, they confirm that the Russian government is acting as an aggressor and occupier, rather than the liberator it is portraying itself to be. Unfortunately, the hawks in the Russian government haven’t yet realized the mess they’ve gotten themselves into.

It’s worth noting that the Feb. 21 agreement to end the EuroMaidan bloodshed set as one of its goals conducting constitutional reforms by September, which hasn’t happened. Essential to these reforms would have been some form of decentralization, as the current governing structure has been identified as more centralized than even under Soviet times. Though Poroshenko has repeatedly claimed he is interested in decentralization, we are doubtful he will follow through, with one of the reasons being that he clearly prefers having tight control over Ukraine’s regions (recruiting local barons into his political party, for instance).

We don’t believe Poroshenko’s “tectonic changes” will be possible without some significant degree of authority being transferred to local governing bodies (in approving licenses and permits, for example). For those who believe that would raise the risk of the state’s disintegration, we offer these poll results as proof that Ukrainians will embrace their statehood even more upon having gained enhanced local authority.