A Way Forward in Ukraine

Subject: A Way Forward in Ukraine
Date: Mon, 14 Apr 2014 16:58:59 -0500
From: rware@siue.edu

A Way Forward in Ukraine
By Robert Bruce Ware
Robert Bruce Ware is a professor at Southern Illinois University Edwardsville.
He is the co-author of Dagestan: Russian Hegemony and Islamic Resistance, and
editor of The Fire Below: How the Caucasus Shaped Russia.

In Ukraine, we face the danger of widespread civil war with dire consequences
for all sides, and for our global economy.

If civil war occurs, then in addition to local bloodshed, the economies of
Europe and Russia will suffer severely. If NATO becomes enmeshed in warfare,
then the world will teeter on the brink of catastrophe. If NATO stays
away from any fighting, then it is likely that the organization will become
meaningless within the next decade.

At the heart of the problem is the cold fact that NATO really has been
meaningless since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Throughout the 1990s and
up to 2003, Russia made overtures of friendship and cooperation to
the West. Due to Western ignorance and arrogance, most of these overtures were
spurned. Contrary to assurances given by Western leaders, NATO expanded
eastward and southward to Russia’s borders. Along with similar moves by the
EU, these policies have culminated in new misunderstandings and hostilities.

The probability of a productive resolution is tragically low, but here is a way
forward:

In the short term, Ukrainian forces should refrain from attacking occupied
buildings. Russia and NATO must announce jointly that they will not intervene
in Ukranian events. Peacekeeping forces from non-NATO countries must be
dispatched to Ukraine immediately. Russian and Western leaders must join
together to call for the restoration of the duly-elected Yanukovych
government. Although Viktor Yanukovych discredited himself with his inefficacy
and corruption, he must now oversee a peaceful transition to a legitimate
Ukranian authority.

After a cooling-off period, Ukraine will need a new constitution based
upon a viable federalist approach. At that time, referenda may be held
legitimately. If a strong majority in any territory votes to separate from
Ukraine in order to join Russia peaceably, and if the rights of all minorities
are guaranteed, then this may be allowed.

NATO should propose a plan to include both Russia and Ukraine. Though such a
proposal is unlikely, it is preferable to the alternatives. Neither Russia nor
the West will benefit from European bloodshed and Russia’s subsequent isolation.
The only ones who will win a civil war in Ukraine are the Chinese.