Ulyukayev says wrong to give overly optimistic forecasts

MOSCOW. Dec 9 (Interfax) – The Russian Ministry of Economic Development says it considers it wrong to give unrealistically upbeat forecasts, Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev told journalists in Moscow on Monday.

Ulyukayev was commenting on a statement by presidential aide on economic issues Andrei Belousov that the Economic Development Ministry and Finance Ministry are not looking for additional reserves for speeding up economic growth.

“I disagree [with these claims]. Firstly, the Finance Ministry has no business here. This is our direct responsibility [the pace of economic growth]. But there is a difference between a forecast and a plan of action. A forecast is when we see developing trends and we give an estimate of the probability that a certain trend is prevalent. And in this sense, we believe that giving forecasts that are more optimistic than estimates of the probability of implementation would be inaccurate and wrong. This disorientates business, and would be fairly irresponsible. For that reason, we believe that we are offering a conservative variant of the forecast,” Ulyukayev said.

“It is strange that the Finance Ministry and the Economic Development Ministry, which ought to be seeking these reserves [to accelerate growth], aren’t even looking,” Belousov told journalists last week. “Above all, it is here that they have to search for a way out of the existing situation, and not become fixated on our low growth rates. It is for that reason that we cannot do anything,” the presidential aide said.

Ulyukayev said that the conservative forecast that the Economic Development Ministry presented “does not mean that we are going to try to implement the conservative variant in particular. We are going to proceed in such a way as a variant with higher growth rates is implemented,” the minister said.

Ulyukayev said he was talking about implementing “road maps,” directed at improving the entrepreneurial climate, about lowering expenses by freezing natural monopoly tariffs, about export support programs, about supporting small and medium businesses, about increasing the efficiency of state procurements by introducing a federal contract system, about infrastructure projects co-financed by the National Welfare Fund, and about a number of others.

“For us, these five or six areas are a priority, and we are working on them and will continue to do so. If someone has any specific proposal on how to strengthen our plan of action, then we are open to discussing these ideas and will be grateful for them,” Ulyukayev said.