Russian Experts See Signs Of Improvement In Relations With USA

(RIA Novosti – Moscow, May 8, 2013) The first visit of US Secretary of State John Kerry to Russia has not been a breakthrough, nor has it led to a new “reset” in relations between Moscow and Washington, according to experts interviewed by RIA Novosti.

According to them, in the run-up to a meeting between the presidents of Russia and the USA on the sidelines of the G8 summit in June, there have been signs that Russian-US relations were getting warmer, but even after Kerry’s visit it is too early to talk about a convergence of Moscow’s and Washington’s positions on key issues. Even the agreement on an international conference on Syria under the auspices of the USA and Russia should be treated with cautious optimism, they believe.

Hints of thaw

Head of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy Fedor Lukyanov said that in the run-up to the meeting between Putin and Obama relations between the countries had shown signs of improvement.

“The atmosphere has unexpectedly got better over the past month and a half. First, there was a very successful visit of the US Assistant to the President for National Security Tom Donilon. Now Kerry arrived, so a meeting of the presidents will be rather successful, I think, although there will be very few topics for discussion,” he said.

The expert believes it would be premature to talk about converging positions on several bilateral issues. However, he sees the USA’s support of Russia’s position on Syria as a positive development, and in particular warnings that further military action could lead to the disintegration of the country and complete loss of control.

“All this is what Russia said before, but they thought it reflected Russia’s sort of sympathy for the Al-Asad regime. Now, because of the obvious impasse in Syria, and the reluctance of the US administration to seriously interfere there, apparently, Russia’s position seemed useful to the US side, as a political cover for attempts at diplomatic solutions,” Lukyanov said.

According to him, the main thing is to force the conflicting parties in Syria to fulfil these agreements. But so far Russia and the USA have had no effective way to do this. At the same time, the expert added, if “at the end of May we really are able to organize some kind of an international event under the auspices of the Russian Federation and the United States (on Syria), it will certainly be a very good prelude to a meeting of the presidents (on the sidelines of the G8 summit in Northern Ireland), this will demonstrate the potential of cooperation between the countries.”

Lukyanov said that a new meeting on Syria was likely to take place not in Russia or the USA but on neutral ground – in Switzerland or Malta.

“I think no new reset is in sight because ‘reset’ is not just a warmer tone of discussions but, above all, the presence of an agenda which allows us to combine or exchange interests to our mutual benefit. In 2009-2010 there was such an agenda. It does not exist anymore, so the problems of NGOs, Magnitskiy and other problems are still here. The US administration is trying to minimally respond to them for its own reasons, but it cannot completely ignore them because of very high pressure inside the USA,” Lukyanov said.

Grounds for optimism

Director of the Institute of USA and Canada Studies Sergey Rogov cautiously welcomed the outcome of Kerry’s visit to Moscow. According to Rogov, “the earlier cooling in Russian-American relations is coming to an end and a new phase in the dialogue between Moscow and Washington is emerging”.

“The Russian side is preparing a response to the letter from President Obama, which was delivered to Moscow last month by US Presidential Advisor on National Security Donilon. Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolay Patrushev is planning to visit Washington very soon and will bring a response letter from the Russian president to Obama. I think there are prospects for a highly successful meeting of the leaders at the G8 summit,” he said.

The expert also suggested that several bilateral documents could be signed in Northern Ireland in June, in particular on cooperation in the fight against terrorism, an agreement to work together to strengthen the nuclear non-proliferation regime, as well as agreements on trade and economic relations.

“We should specially mention a rapprochement between Russia and the USA on Syria. The USA has agreed with Russia’s idea to hold an international conference on Syria. This is very important because the Obama administration is coming under increased pressure in Washington, through the Congress first of all, which calls for a military intervention in the civil conflict in Syria and for supplies of weapons to the enemies of the Al-Asad regime. Judging by everything, the Obama administration shows no enthusiasm about these proposals,” Rogov said.

According to him, the conference, which Russia and the USA are planning to organize in late May, and which will be attended by representatives of the opposition and the leadership of Syria, will most likely discuss the possibility of establishing a transitional government in the Syrian Arab Republic, which will be supported by the international community. Also the agenda could include a proposal on a possible resumption of the UN peacekeeping mission in Syria.

How to contain Friends of Syria

Expert from the Institute of Strategic Studies and Analysis Sergey Demidenko would not describe the agreement between Russia and the USA on Syria as a breakthrough and believes that the conflict is still far away from a comprehensive settlement.

“We can only speak about a concrete plan when all the sides want to resolve the conflict. The USA’s position has not been fully articulated yet. On the one hand, they do not want to bomb Syria or invade it, since this would entail serious costs. On the other hand, they continue to support the opposition and the rebels on the political level. The Americans must make up their minds,” the expert said.

In his words, “the only important outcome of this meeting are Russia’s and the USA’s plans to hold a conference (an international conference on Syria), so there is some common ground”.

“So we are at the beginning of the path, and all sides need to work out their position, and, most importantly, understand how to contain the activities of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and all those conservative religious circles in the Gulf which are inciting the situation,” Demidenko said.

Senior researcher from the Institute of Oriental Studies Vladimir Sotnikov doubts that the so-called Group of Friends of Syria will take part in an international conference on Syria, which the USA and Russia are planning to organize.

“I’m not sure what the so-called Friends of Syria will want to participate in such a conference because they and some countries in the Gulf have a strong aversion to initiatives from Moscow. The fact that Washington agreed to such a conference is a positive aspect. It seems that the USA understands that external interference in the Syrian crisis will not be constructive. And this could lead to what Moscow has been warning against – as a result of such intervention a radical Islamist regime could come to power in Syria,” Sotnikov told RIA Novosti.

At the same time, the expert is sceptical about possible solutions at the proposed conference. “I am rather doubtful whether the new international conference will resolve all issues related to the Syrian crisis; it is enough to recall the conference in Geneva whose last year’s decisions have not been fulfilled at all,” he added.

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