JRL NEWSWATCH: “Wounded bear: Under unprecedented sanctions, how is the Russian economy faring? Better than you might think” – The Economist
“… Russia still seems sure to enter a recession …. [W]hether it ends up faring as badly as most economists predict … [with] a GDP decline of 10-15% [] depends on three factors. [1] whether ordinary Russians start worrying about the economy as the war drags on, and reduce spending … [2] whether production eventually grinds to a halt as sanctions block firms’ access to imports from the West. Russia’s aviation sector looks particularly vulnerable, as does the car industry. Yet many big businesses that started during Soviet times are used to operating without imports. … [3] [The] most important factor relates to Russia’s fossil-fuel exports. Despite … sanctions … Russia is still selling about $10bn-worth of oil a month to foreign buyers … a quarter of … pre-war exports; revenues from … natural gas and other petroleum products [also] are still flowing …. a valuable source of foreign currency … [for] buy[ing] … consumer goods and parts from neutral or friendly countries. Unless that changes, the Russian economy may stumble on for some time ….”