JRL NEWSWATCH: “Will the West Abandon Ukraine? Kyiv Must Prepare for a Possible Change of Heart in America and Europe” – Foreign Affairs
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“A coalition of the world’s wealthiest and most technologically advanced countries gives Ukraine a major structural advantage. Russia, by contrast, has only two countries—Iran and North Korea — openly assisting it … although China has been … an important economic backstop … and a provider of nonlethal military aid. … Western military support comes with its own risks and challenges[] … [including] Ukraine’s extreme dependence on Western military and financial assistance. … [and increasingly heavy reliance] on Western equipment and strategic planning. … Ukraine’s [war-battered] economy … [also] would struggle … without international help. Continued Western commitment to Ukraine cannot be guaranteed …. [D]evelopments on the frontlines — especially the relatively … modest gains of the counteroffensive … — have emboldened skeptics of Western support …. Even if the counteroffensive picks up steam, it will not end the war anytime soon. … The main risk for Ukraine is less an abrupt political shift in the West[, such as might hypothetically occur in the United States,] than the slow unraveling of a carefully woven web of foreign assistance. … [U.S. and European] political leaders … should do what they can to entrench financial and military assistance … in long-term budgetary cycles, making the aid more difficult … to unwind. …”