JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Does the Conflict in the Middle East Mean for Ukraine?” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
“Ukraine is reluctant to risk its hard-earned ties with the Global South, but it certainly cannot afford to lose irreplaceable Western assistance, leaving Kyiv with very little room for maneuver.”
“… At first, the Ukrainian government reacted to the Hamas terrorist attacks … [like] most other countries … condemning the Palestinian militants and expressing … condolences to the Israelis. … Israeli army [actions] in Gaza have impacted … attitudes …. The United States and most … Western countries still support Israel …. [M]any countries of the so-called Global South have condemned [Israel] for … airstrikes against Gaza and insist … it … bears some responsibility for the outbreak of violence. … Ukraine has found itself between a rock and a hard place. … [I]t’s important for Kyiv to emphasize … unity with the West and not to fall out with Israel, a valuable potential ally. … [Yet] overly enthusiastic support for the Israelis could damage Ukraine’s relations with countries in the Global South, for whose sympathies Kyiv has been … vying with Moscow. … For most Ukrainians, the Arab world is … distant and foreign, while there are many socio-cultural and business ties between Ukraine and Israel. … [The Israeli model also] is broadly seen as a good example of a state that has successfully repelled attacks from aggressors for decades [while still becoming] … prosperous and technologically advanced: everything that Ukrainians [want for Ukraine]. …”
Ukraine’s war with Russia impacts Ukrainian perspectives on the current escalation between Israel and its adversaries.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has been trying to convince Israel to impose sanctions on Russia and provide Ukraine with tanks and air defense systems. Yet Israel has seemed reluctant to downgrade relations with Moscow, and has limited its support for Ukraine to humanitarian aid and air raid warning systems.
One related concern for Ukraine has been Ukrainian relations with the United States, with Ukraine seeking to ensure that Ukraine continues to receive U.S. aid even against the backdrop of the situation in the Holy Land. Efforts are being made by the U.S. administration to combine aid to Ukraine within the same package as U.S. aid to Israel.
Overall, the Israel-Hamas war creates both risks and opportunities for Ukraine.