JRL NEWSWATCH: “Understanding the Risk of Escalation in the War in Ukraine” – RAND
(RAND Corporation – Bryan Frederick, Mark Cozad, Alexandra Stark – Sept. 2023) [full report: HTML – PDF]
“Key Findings
… The fact that Putin has avoided certain escalatory options to date does not mean that he will avoid them in the future. The Kremlin’s control of Russia has become brittle, potentially encouraging Putin to consider options to shorten the war. Withdrawal … is one … option. Greater escalation is another, including attacking NATO …, intensifying … Russian air forces against Ukraine, and … chemical weapons. Putin could also use nuclear weapons inside Ukraine. … [S]udden deterioration of Russian forces or threats to internal stability could lead Putin to view nuclear weapons as the best among a set of bad options. Should he choose … that risk, he may not be restrained in the number or types of weapons ….
RAND’s assessment highlights implications for U.S. and NATO policymakers.
- Maintaining NATO alliance cohesion is critical to sustaining support for Ukraine and deterring Russian escalation.
- A continued incremental approach to providing greater support to Ukraine could limit escalation risks, but it could work against Ukraine if Russia fields new forces quickly and Ukrainian losses increase.
- Putin may be politically unable to reduce his war aims, giving him less room to maneuver.
- More-destructive attacks against Ukraine’s civilian population could initiate an escalatory spiral if Ukraine retaliates with intensified attacks inside Russia.
- Internal instability in Russia is likely to influence Putin’s calculations, but the direction of its effects is not yet clear.
- U.S. ability to control future escalation may diminish. U.S. and allied policymakers should plan to respond to Russian escalation while striving to maintain diplomatic and military communication channels with Russia that could arrest an escalatory spiral. ….”