JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. doubts Ukraine counteroffensive will yield big gains, leaked document says” – Washington Post
“It’s a marked departure from the Biden administration’s public pronouncements about the vitality of Ukraine’s army and is likely to embolden critics calling for negotiations to end the war.”
“… [T]he bleak assessment from early February warns of significant ‘force generation and sustainment shortfalls,’ and the likelihood that such an operation will result in only ‘modest territorial gains.’ … Military officials and independent analysts have publicly suggested the likelihood of a counteroffensive through Ukraine’s east and south. Russia has bolstered its defense of [Crimea] … with a dense web of fortifications and trench lines in apparent anticipation of such an operation. Moscow’s troops also face considerable challenges, including low morale in the wake of major strategic blunders that have lead to significant casualties and left pockets of soldiers poorly equipped. Russian units in the east [reportedly] are particularly shabby … with intelligence revealing substandard care in camouflaging sensitive sites and reckless ammunition storage. The West has sent Ukraine tens of billions of dollars’ worth of weapons and military equipment, tout[ed] … as a significant boost. But the newly leaked document signals [that] … [t]he difficult fight … has exhausted Ukraine’s troops and hardware, making every day the war drags on an advantage to the larger Russian military. …”