JRL NEWSWATCH: “Two Years On, What’s Next in Ukraine? Eight thinkers shed light on the state of the war” – Foreign Policy
“As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its third year, the apparent impasse on the battlefield masks decisive shifts. The war’s main front is now political, with … Putin betting that divisions and hesitations in the West will hand him the victory he has failed to achieve on the ground. Worried about the consequences for their continent’s security if Washington disengages and Ukraine falls, European governments have increased aid in recent months. … When and how will this war end? …”
“Bracing for a Long War
By Angela Stent, author of Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and With the RestAs Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its third year, the current dynamic stalemate looks set to continue. … The Russians are making incremental territorial gains at the cost of enormous casualties and lost equipment. The Ukrainians, having failed to achieve the objectives of their 2023 counteroffensive, are on the defensive and also experiencing significant casualties. This war of attrition is taking its toll on Ukraine … but there will be no Russian mobilization before … Putin’s sham reelection next month. For Ukraine, whose population is less than a third the size of Russia’s, it will be more difficult for to mobilize the forces it needs. The war is not only about troops but also about the continued supply of weapons. Russia is purchasing drones from Iran and increasing amounts of artillery ammunition and some missiles from North Korea. Ukraine is dependent on weapons supplies and financial support from Europe and the United States. There is little prospect of negotiations to end the war in 2024, nor can either side achieve a decisive victory. …”