JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s New Nuclear Normal; How the Country Has Grown Dangerously Comfortable Brandishing Its Arsenal” – Foreign Affairs/ Dmitry Adamsky
“… Russia’s approach to nuclear weapons has evolved since the invasion … and not in comforting ways. The war further nuclearized the Russian establishment’s strategic thought and normalized nuclear weapons in the public’s consciousness. … Evidence … indicate[s] that over the last year and a half Russia’s military has doubled down on its conceptualization of deterrence strategy, and that it is starting to rely even more on the country’s nuclear arsenal in strategic planning. Apparently, the Russian defense establishment is developing a new concept called ‘operation of the strategic deterrence forces’ [including consideration of] … a new organization … [for] the planning, execution, and evaluation of deterrence operations … [I]t may expand … coercive options on the escalation ladder for conventional contingencies. … Whatever happens to [Putin], the national security elite is likely to continue … messianic rhetoric and escalatory signaling to maintain ambiguity and increase Western confusion. … [T]he new nuclear normal in Russia is likely to increase the obedience of [Russian] operators in response to escalatory nuclear orders …. [I]f Russia experiences civilian-military instability, the chances of unsanctioned use could go up.”
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