JRL NEWSWATCH: “Has Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine Improved His Standing in Russia?” – The New Yorker
“As Russians go to the polls, the economy is booming and the public feels hopeful about the future. But the politics of Putinism still depend on the absence of any means to challenge it.”
“… Putin has ruled … for nearly a quarter century, just a few years shy of Stalin’s epoch-spanning grip …. No genuine opposition candidates have been allowed on the Presidential ballot in two decades. Since the beginning of Russia’s [February 2022 full-scale] invasion of Ukraine … Putin’s authoritarian drift has accelerated into something resembling a full-blown military dictatorship. This February, the one credible outsider politician with a genuine, nationwide following, Alexei Navalny, died in … prison in the Russian Arctic. … For much of its existence, the Putin system depended upon a disengaged citizenry. People stayed out of politics, and, unless you were one of the few people foolish enough to challenge the state directly, politics stayed out of your life. The war, in theory, could have been a pretext to galvanize Russian society. According to Western estimates, around three hundred and fifty thousand Russian troops have been killed or wounded …. In September, 2022, Putin launched … a military draft that … has called up some three hundred thousand Russian men. Meanwhile, a series of repressive laws criminalized not only publicly criticizing the war but speaking truthfully about the invasion. Sanctions left the Russian economy isolated. In the wake of the invasion, the ruble crashed, inflation spiked, and real wages fell. … Yet, two years into the war, … Putin’s hold on power feels, at least for the moment, entirely assured. … The future of the Putin system … in large measure depends on the appearance — or continued absence — of instruments or avenues to challenge it in any meaningful way. …”